Trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions: the case of dairying in the European Union and New Zealand*

The link between trade and the environment has aroused considerable interest both in terms of the impact of trade liberalisation on the environment, and also the impact of environmental policy on production and trade. Of key environmental concern at present is global warming and its association with greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is a sector of the economy that both contributes to, and will be affected by, climate change. This paper models the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture around the world, focusing particularly on the effects on New Zealand, a small economy highly dependent on agricultural trade. A partial equilibrium agricultural multicountry, multicommodity trade model is used for the analysis, extended to include physical production systems and their greenhouse gas emissions. Two simulations are performed: removal of agricultural policies in the EU and in all OECD countries. The results indicate that although producer returns in New Zealand increase, greenhouse gas emissions also increase significantly. EU producers face lower returns but also lower greenhouse gas emissions.     

FACTOR SHARES IN AGRICULTURE: THE CANADA-U.S. EXPERIENCE

The class shares of income in the Canadian economy and public policy developments are closely related. A comparison of the levels and trends in functional income shares with those in the United States economy generates a number of testable hypotheses. In this paper, the functional shares in all Canadian agriculture and agricultural regions are also observed and compared to US. agriculture and adjacent type of fanning regions.
The analysis indicates a marked similarity in the total economy income shares despite dissimilar factor supply functions. In both countries there has been a slight upward trend in the labor share over time. The rate and pattern of growth has also been similar in the two countries; however, a serious divergence has developed in recent years. In contrast to the total economies, declining farm labor income shares characterize both agricultures. Real estate shares also have followed a similar pattern in the two countries, with the past two decades witnessing a reversal in the historical decline. Nevertheless, there are a number of differences between factor shares in Canadian and United States agriculture. In part, these can be explained by comparing adjacent regions. It is clear, however, that the different impact of technological change and economic growth has bad a great impact on regional shares. The operation of capital and labor markets within Canadian agriculture also contribute to the differences in agricultural factor shares between the two countries.     

Landlords and farmers: implications of disparities in bargaining power for tenancy in agriculture

The equilibrium allocation of owner operated and rental land in the agricultural sector is examined given risk averse agents, risky returns and asset price risk. The model is extended to account for disparities in bargaining power among landlords and farmers. In the absence of disparities, the competitive equilibrium allocation satisfies the general conditions for optimal risk sharing with an adjustment factor similar to the optimal hedge ratio. Differences in bargaining power result in deviations from the optimal risk sharing conditions. Numerical simulations of tenancy structure are conducted for a developed agricultural economy exposed to various forms of risk. Estimates of parameter values representing the riskiness of returns and asset prices in this study are based on vector auto regressive techniques. The simulations show that a substantial reduction of the rental ratio is obtained in a situation where farmers are equally or more risk averse than landlords. Consequently, the results indicate that the importance of the tenancy institution as a risk sharing mechanism is severely mitigated in the presence of asset price risk, risky returns, relatively risk averse farmers and disparities in bargaining power.     

Publicly-funded UK agricultural R&D and 'social' total factor productivity

Most studies concerned with measuring the rate of return to publicly‐funded agricultural R&D investment have found high returns, suggesting under‐investment, and calls for increased expenditure have been common. However, the evaluation of returns tends to measure the effect of research expenditure against growth in total factor productivity (TFP), based on market inputs and outputs. When compared against growing public unease over the environmental effects of pursuing agricultural productivity growth, TFP indices become a misleading measure of growth. This paper integrates some non‐market components into the TFP index. The costs of two specific externalities of agricultural production, namely fertiliser and pesticide pollution, are integrated in a TFP index constructed for the period 1948–1995. This adjusted, or ‘social’, TFP index is measured against UK public R&D expenditures. The rates of return to agricultural R&D are reduced by using the ‘social’ as opposed to the traditional TFP index. Whilst both remain at justifiable levels, previous studies appear to have over‐estimated the effect of agricultural R&D expenditures. Furthermore, with changes in policy towards more socially acceptable but non‐productivity enhancing outcomes, such as animal welfare, rural diversification and organic farming, the future framework for analysing returns to agricultural R&D should not be so dependent on productivity growth as an indicator of research effectiveness.     

Measurement errors in agricultural data and their implications on marginal returns to modern agricultural inputs

The low uptake of modern agricultural technologies in sub-Saharan African countries has encouraged researchers to revisit the returns to (or profitability of) these agricultural inputs. A related strand of literature is exploring the allocative efficiency of these factors of production in African agriculture. However, all these studies rely on self-reported agricultural data, which are prone to nonclassical measurement errors, the errors in these data are correlated with the true values of variables of interest. In this article we investigate the implication of measurement errors in self-reported agricultural input and production data on marginal returns to these modern agricultural inputs. We consider a generic two-sided measurement error problem where both production and inputs can be measured with error, and these errors can be correlated. We employ both self-reported and objective measures of production and plot size to compute output elasticities under these alternative measurement scenarios. We find that using self-reported production and plot size overestimates output elasticities and hence marginal returns to modern agricultural inputs (including chemical fertilizer and improved seed). These results are noteworthy in terms of informing conventional technology diffusion strategies as well as in view of revisiting existing presumptions about the profitability of modern agricultural inputs.     

Transition, development and the supply of wheat in China

The overall goal of this article is to better understand the factors that influence China's wheat supply. We assess trends in China's wheat output and develop a framework to measure the relationship between output and key determinants of China's wheat sector growth. Elasticity estimates and factor growth trends help decompose the growth of reform-era wheat supply into its component parts. The results show that growth in the early reform period was due to institutional change and technology. In the late reform period, however, with the returns to institutional change exhausted, all of China's growth in wheat supply was due to technology, a result that implies China's government should invest heavily in agricultural research and development.     

Urban Sprawl and Farmland Prices

A theoretical model of farmland valuation is developed to explicitly account for three effects of urban sprawl: conversion of farmland to urban uses, effect on agricultural returns, and speculative effect as represented by farmland conversion risk. This model is estimated using county-level data in the continental United States. Evidence is found for all three effects of urban sprawl on farmland values. Counties more accessible to major urban centers have higher net agricultural returns. Subsidiary evidence supports that the latter effect may be attributed to survival of (or conversion to) high-valued agriculture around urban centers.     

财政支出对我国农业增长的多途径影响

本文采用变系数生产模型,将全要素生产率中涉及各生产要素质量提升的部分剥离,从而识别财政支出通过不同途径影响农业增长的内在机制,并利用省级面板数据(1978-2015年31个省份)和县级面板数据(1993-2010年2495个县),从宏观和中观视角实证考察和比较了各改革阶段财政支出通过不同途径对农业产出的影响及其长期总体...     

RESEARCH PRIORITIES IN AGRICULTURE

Following brief presentation of the post-war pattern of agricultural R and D expenditure and productivity changes, the major theoretical issues associated with the evaluation and assessment of R and D spending are discussed. It is argued that emphasis on ex post evaluations of R and D, particularly through rate of return calculations, is misplaced. The economist's tool-box contains many more instruments than internal rates of return and simplified cost/benefit analyses which are relevant to the difficult decisions of R and D allocation and management. A supply/demand perspective of the R and D system and its interaction with the rest of the social economy is suggested as being more useful in the examination of R and D questions than the traditional view of R and D as a linear progression from pure science through applied research and development to adoption, which is implicit in investment analysis. Some implications of the supply/demand view are identified.     

沙湾县农地互换影响因素实证分析

【目的】通过对沙湾县农地互换的实证分析,找出影响沙湾县农地互换相关因素,为进一步促进农村土地承包经营权顺利互换提供科学依据。【方法】应用主成分分析模型、Pearson相关分析法和综合得分计算模型。【结论】区域经济、交通发展水平对沙湾县农地互换影响程度最大;耕地破碎度、亩均产量和耕地收入次之;耕作便捷度、非农就业机会和家庭人口因素较弱;农户土地互换意愿影响程度最弱。     

The Calculation of returns to research in distorted markets: Comment

In a recent article, Oehmke reported that a high internal rate of return for investment in research when the interaction between research and price policy costs was disregarded could become very low or even negative when the effects of research on the costs of price policy were considered. In this paper, the social returns from research in the presence of the price policies considered by Oehmke are reexamined using a simple geometric approach. The analysis suggests that an output subsidy in a small importing economy, an output subsidy in a closed economy, and a target price in a large exporting economy will on Oehmke's assumptions - cause only small reductions in the internal rate of return from investment in research. This implies that the apparent underinvestment by governments in agricultural research cannot be explained away by a large upward bias, known to governments, in measured rates of return due to failure to account for interactions between research and the costs of price policy measures.     

Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes

The latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project database and the Linkage model of the global economy (projected to 2015) are used to estimate the impact of removing all merchandise trade distortions (including agricultural subsidies). Results suggest that a move to free merchandise trade would increase farm employment, the real value of agricultural output and exports, real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in developing countries. This would occur despite the decline in international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries.     

ICT and agricultural productivity: evidence from cross-country data

This article carries out agricultural production function estimations, based on data for the period 1995–2000 on 81 countries, to present empirical evidence on the relationship between the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) and agricultural productivity. It is found that new ICT has a significantly positive impact on agricultural productivity. The evidence suggests that the adoption of modern industrial inputs in agricultural production relies on the information and communication infrastructure. However, the empirical evidence from this study also suggests that new ICT could be a factor for the divergence between countries in terms of overall agricultural productivity. Not only do we find that the ICT adoption levels of the richer countries are much higher than those of the poorer countries, but also that returns from ICT in agricultural production of the richer countries are about two times higher than those of the poorer countries. A plausible explanation for the poorer countries' relatively low productivity elasticity of ICT is the lack of important complementary factors, such as a substantial base of human capital.     

Technology,production environment,and household income: Assessing the regional impacts of technological change

This paper clarifies the factors determining the welfare effects of improved agricultural technologies when technology diffusion is unevenly distributed across production environments Household-level income effects are shown to depend primarily on: (a) whether the economy is open or closed with respect to world markets; (b) whether households are net consumers or net producers of the commodity for which technological change occurs; (c) whether households are adopters or non-adopters of the new technology; (d) the degree to which labor is mobile across agricultural regions; and (e) government intervention in commodity and/or factor markets. A review of recent empirical work indicates considerable variation in the relative strength of these various factors across countries, and that assumptions regarding the mechanism by which commodity prices are determined – endogenously as in a closed economy, or exogenously as in an open economy – is especially critical.     

基于模糊理论的条子泥围垦项目社会评价分析

我国土地供给是有限的,现有耕地又因各种占用锐减,因此迫切需要增加耕地,保证"占补平衡"。沿海滩涂是得天独厚的土地资源,围垦是江苏省增加耕地的有效途径,对缓解江苏用地日益紧缺的矛盾,推动沿海经济发展具有重要作用。用模糊理论对条子泥围垦项目进行社会效益分析,从养殖收益、农业生态收益等方面分析该项目的社会总效益。量化分析各因素对条子泥项目的影响,并从理论方面分析条子泥建设对东台市的巨大影响,从而得出条子泥围垦项目的建设社会效益巨大的结论。     

农业循环经济模式对农业转型的思考

以循环发展理念引领农业转型,加快构筑农业循环经济发展模式,对于推进生态文明建设,促进农业供给侧结构性改革,调整优化农业产业结构,增加高品质农产品供应,保障食品安全,促进资源节约使用和废弃物资源化利用,具有重大而紧迫的现实意义。构筑农业循环经济发展模式的主要任务在于构建循环型农业产业体系,包括构建农业内部循环经济产业体系、培育发展工农复合循环经济产业链、完善循环型农业发展的基础设施和基本保障。     

“互联网+”背景下农产品供需信息平台建设博弈分析

[目的]农产品是关乎国计民生的必需品,在"互联网+"背景下,国家大力提倡农业信息化建设,为农业现代化发展提供新一轮契机。但由于我国小农经济、农地分散、农民素质普遍不高、农业技术化程度总体较低等多方原因,造成长久以来我国农产品供给与需求不对称情况,频繁出现"菜贱伤农、菜贵伤民"现象,如何利用现代信息技术改善农产品供需信息不对称现象成为社会关注的焦点。[方法]文章在文献研究基础上,主要运用完全信息静态博弈及冷酷战略模型对农产品信息共享平台建设的必要性进行分析。[结果]博弈分析结果显示,供应链上下游组织间共享信息次数只要有足够多,就可以在供应链中建立起良好的互动关系,通过信息共享可以有助于供应链条上企业合作,实现共赢。[结论]信息共享平台建设可以有效提升农产品信息沟通效率,有效解决农产品供需信息不对称问题。     

Modernization of a peasant crop in Colombia: evidence and implications

The survival of the small-farm sector in the process of agricultural modernization in Latin America has been a concern for many authors and institutions. It is generally believed that the small-farm sector is bypassed in the process of agricultural development. The authors analyze modernization of bean/maize cropping systems in Southern Colombia. Prices, production practices and profitability are compared for 1975 and 1989. By means of a production function, the effects of allocative efficiency, technical efficiency and technical change on productivity and profitability are analyzed. The observed changes reflect very well the price trends over the period. Between 1975 and 1989, total factor productivity increased by 50%. Bean/maize producers almost doubled returns to land and labor. Increased technical efficiency had most effect on profitability, followed by technical change. Allocative efficiency had more impact on yields than on profitability because it was associated with high input costs. Considerable opportunities for further productivity increases were identified. Conclusions on the nature of the modernization process are drawn. Implications for agricultural policy, research and the role of the small farm in agricultural development are derived.     

Efficiency,total factor productivity and returns to scale in a sustainable perspective: An analysis in the European Union at farm and regional level

For global sustainability it is imperative to find a balance across the three main components of sustainable development which are the economic, social and environmental aspects. However, it is not a simple task to make these contexts compatible, usually because of economic pressures which transform them into opposed objectives. This framework occurs across several dimensions within society and the economy, where the agricultural sector is not an exception. The objective of this study is to analyse the efficiency, total factor productivity and returns to scale in an economic, social and environmental perspective in farms of the European Union (EU) regions through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approaches. The research concerning the returns to scale will be complemented by the Keynesian models. Data obtained from the European Union Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) was considered. The results show that in maintaining or improving the levels of production in farms, it is often possible to greatly reduce, in some cases, the consumption of fertilizers and crop protection products. On the other hand, from a social perspective, some European Union regions are more generous in the salaries paid to farming workers and absorb more labour, which in a European context of unemployment, may be an interesting way to realistically look at and be engaged in the agricultural planning in a sustainable way, founding a balanced trade-off among the economic, social and environmental dimensions.