The influence of proximity to market on bean producer prices in Nicaragua

Transport costs are an important determinant of smallholder welfare in developing countries. In particular, transport costs influence the prices that smallholders receive for their produce. We propose a simple way of quantifying this influence. Taking the example of bean producers in Nicaragua, we employ a hedonic price model to estimate the effects of a smallholder's proximity to markets on the prices that he/she receives, while controlling for other factors such as the volume and quality of beans sold. We find that on average each additional minute of travel time reduces farm gate prices by 2.5 cents per quintal. Based on these results, the annual income from bean sales of the average smallholder in our sample would increase by between 24 and 110 USD if travel time to markets were reduced by 25%. Estimates of this nature can make an important contribution to cost–benefit assessments of infrastructure investments.     

The effects of rising food prices on poverty in Mexico

We evaluate the impact of the rise in food prices during 2006–2008 on the poverty and extreme poverty rates in Mexico. We concentrate on the poor's consumption of staple foods, and analyze the change in their consumption brought about by changed prices. We also allow households receiving income from the farming and livestock sector to benefit from increases in prices of food products. We find a modest increase in poverty using 2006–2007 prices; however, there is a daunting effect on the poor once the 2008 prices are taken into account. After considering the positive effects of public policies announced in 2008, such as reduced taxes and tariffs on food products and greater subsidies to the extremely poor, the poverty rate measured through consumption increases from 25% to 33.5%, and the extreme poverty rate from 10.58% to 15.95%, given the increase in food prices. Further analysis using the theory of optimal taxes suggests policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the Mexican poor should aim at lowering the prices of eggs, vegetable oil, milk, and chicken.     

人民币汇率变动对我国水产品贸易的影响

水产品外贸在我国外贸、特别是在农产品外贸中占有重要的地位。本文在论述了人民币升值对水产品贸易影响的一般原理和过程的基础上，讨论了人民币汇率变动对水产品贸易所产生的其他效应，包括：对于加工贸易和当进出口商品需求弹性之和小于1时，人民币升值会促进出口；人民币升值有利于改善我国水产品的贸易条件，使社会福利增加；人民币升值会使我国水产品贸易规模增大。最后本文给出了结论与建议。     

The effects of NCPB marketing policies on maize market prices in Kenya

The Government of Kenya pursues maize marketing policy objectives through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), which procures and sells maize at administratively determined prices, and stores maize as a contingency against future shortages. A private sector marketing channel competes with the NCPB. This article estimates the effects of NCPB activities on the historical path of private sector prices in Kenyan maize markets between 1989 and 2004. The analysis is carried out using a reduced form vector autoregression model (VAR) estimated with sparse data and imposing only minimal identification restrictions. Results show that NCPB activities have stabilized maize market prices in Kenya, reduced price levels in the early 1990s, and raised average price levels by roughly 20% between 1995 and 2004. Over the past decade, the price-raising activities of the NCPB have transferred income from urban consumers and a majority of small-scale farm households that are net buyers of maize to a relatively small number of large- and small-scale farmers who are sellers of maize.     

The law of one price: a test based on prices for selected inputs in New Zealand agriculture

The law of one price (LOOP) is an essential foundation of both the pure theory of trade and monetary theory. Strictly speaking, the law relates to prices of individual commodities. However, empirical tests of LOOP have often relied on aggregated data. In this paper, a model is derived and estimated using price data for 15 selected inputs in New Zealand agriculture. The results offer no support for the LOOP in the short run, and the results for the long run are mixed. It may be inappropriate, therefore, to assume that the LOOP holds generally in modelling exercises, particularly when models are used for policy purposes.     

The effects of the Food Reserve Agency on maize market prices in Zambia

Over the last decade, governments throughout eastern and southern Africa have increasingly used strategic reserves and/or marketing boards to influence grain market outcomes, yet little is known about how these activities are affecting grain markets. This article estimates the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) on maize market prices in production and consumption regions in Zambia using a vector autoregression model and monthly data from July 1996 through December 2008. In recent years, FRA has become the dominant buyer of smallholder maize in Zambia. Simulations show that FRA activities stabilized market prices throughout the July 1996–December 2008 study period and raised mean prices between July 2003 and December 2008 by 17–19%. The price raising effects of FRA policies have assisted surplus maize producers but adversely affected net buyers of maize in Zambia, namely urban consumers and the majority of the rural poor. The increase in maize price stability is unlikely to have had substantial welfare effects on poor households. In contrast, relatively wealthy producers are likely to have benefited from the higher average and more stable maize prices resulting from FRA policies.     

Adaptation in agriculture: historic effects of heat waves and droughts on UK agriculture

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity under climate change. Recent examples of these types of events, such as the heat wave in Europe in 2003, have caused considerable damage to crops and agriculture and substantial economic damage. If similar damage was incurred every time such an event occurred in the future, it would cause increasingly serious loss to social welfare and the economy as the frequency or intensity of these events increased. However, agriculture has a history of adapting to shocks, and in this paper we aim to determine whether there has been a systematic reduction in damage from historic extreme events over time in the agricultural sector in the UK. The impact of comparable droughts or heat waves over the past four decades is compared, and for many commodities there appears to have been a reduction in damage over time, to the point where recent events have had a minimal impact on production, indicating that the sector is relatively well adapted to the current climate. We discuss whether this type of adaptation can be sustained into the future under more rapid rates of change, or whether the ‘low-hanging’ fruits of adaptation have been picked.     

新疆生产建设兵团各师灌溉水价变动对

以新疆生产建设兵团2000~2006年灌溉水价和与之对应的每公顷毛灌溉定额资料为基础,应用计量经济学需求函数模型,建立兵团灌溉水价与灌溉用水量的定量关系,利用以上研究成果对兵团灌溉水价改革进行预测,根据兵团各师农业灌溉节水量测算农业灌溉水价对农业经济的贡献率。结果表明,水价这一经济杠杆对当地农业经济的发展起到了促进作用。     

The impact of decoupled subsidies on productivity in agriculture: a cross‐country analysis using microdata

The decoupling of direct payments from production introduced in the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is expected to make production decisions more market‐oriented and farmers more productive. However, ex‐post analyses of the productivity of farms have yet to uncover any evidence of a positive impact of the decoupling policy on farm productivity. Using Irish, Danish, and Dutch farm‐level data, we identify whether the decoupling policy has contributed to productivity growth in agriculture and farm product adjustment behavior. We find some evidence that the decoupling policy had significant positive effects on farm productivity and behavioral changes related to farm specialization.     

The effects of the Yuan‐dollar exchange rate on agricultural commodity trade between the United States,China, and their competitors

The United States claims that the undervaluation of Chinese currency, the Yuan, causes U.S. exports to China to decrease and imports from China to increase. Furthermore, because the Yuan is undervalued only against the dollar, U.S. competitors have an advantage in exporting to China and China has an advantage over its competitors in exporting to the United States. This study develops a theoretical model to analyze the effect of the Yuan undervaluation on prices, supply, demand, and trade in the United States, China, and their competitors. This study applies a cointegration/error‐correction model to empirically quantify the short‐run and long‐run effects of the devaluation of the Yuan on important agricultural commodities traded between the United States, China, and their competitors. These commodities include Chinese imports of milk, soybeans, and cotton from the United States and U.S. imports of beans, fruit juice, and fruit from China. The results show that Yuan devaluation causes Chinese imports of U.S. milk, soybeans, and cotton to decline and U.S. imports of beans, fruit juice, and fruit from China to increase in the short run and in the long run.     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

Impacts of price and exchange rate policies on pesticide use in the Philippines

Pesticide prices can influence producer decisions to apply pesticides as opposed to nonchemical means of pest control. Those prices are are turn influenced by price and exchange rate policies. The effective rate of protection for nine pesticides commonly applied to vegetables in the Philippines was calculated to determine whether government policies are creating incentives or disincentives to adopt more integrated pest management methods. Calculations found that direct price policies, primarily through an import tariff, tax pesticide use while an overvalued exchange rate subsidizes pesticide use. The net effect is a 6 to 8% pesticide subsidy. This subsidy results in economic surplus gains to vegetable producers and consumers when negative externalities associated with pesticide use are not accounted for. However, recent analysis of human health effects of pesticide use on rice in the Philippines demonstrates that these externalities can be substantial.     

基于实物期权理论的跨流域调水工程风险管理探讨

在介绍了实物期权理论产生和发展的基础上,论证跨流域调水工程中应用实物期权理论进行风险管理的必要性和可行性;其次研究如何利用实物期权理论构建水权期权和基于Black-Scholes模型进行水权期权定价;最后,分析和展望在跨流域调水工程风险管理中运用实物期权理论时应该注意的问题。     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

论国际贸易中跟单信用证风险及对策

跟单信用证是国际贸易中最主要的一种结算支付方式。其最大的特点之一在于它是一种纯粹的单据业务。跟单信用证交易中的严格相符原则已成为制约信用证当事人间的基本法律原则。分析了跟单信用证单证不符点及对策和跟单信用证项下的欺诈及防范,在国际贸易中具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。     

基于空间效应的农田水利投资对农业全要素生产率的影响

在构建包含农田水利基础设施投资在内的农业超越对数随机前沿生产函数的基础上,利用随机前沿法测算我国31个省(市、自治区)1996—2015年农业全要素生产率,对测算的结果通过空间计量方法分析农业全要素生产率的空间特征及农田水利投资对其产生的影响。结果表明:我国各省(市、自治区)农业全要素生产率整体增长呈现上升趋势;横向和纵向的分析结果显示其增长具有一定的区域性和地域集聚性;农田水利投资对农业全要素生产率的影响为正,且具有较弱的溢出效应,其中直接效应值为0.286 5,间接效应值为0.057 4,总效应值为0.343 9。     

The impact of entry costs on export market participation in agriculture

Theoretical models of market entry imply that sunk costs are an important factor in the decision to export. Following Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) , we develop a simple model of foreign market participation and use a Bayesian method to estimate the resulting dynamic discrete‐choice model with lagged dependent variable. Employing a balanced panel data that follows 81 trading partners for 30 years from 1971 to 2000, we estimate our model and compute the marginal effect of sunk costs on the likelihood of export market participation. We find that such costs are economically and statistically important for trade in all of the six major agricultural commodities (Cereals, Dairy, Fish, Meat, Vegetables and Fruits, and Sugar), for agricultural producers in both developed and developing countries. We also find evidence suggesting that, in general, market access for both developed and developing exporters had improved in the years following the Uruguay round of trade negotiations (1995–2000).     

Economic effects of water recovery on irrigated agriculture in the Murray‐Darling Basin*

In October 2010, the Murray‐Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) proposed that a range of 3000–4000 GL per year, on average, of additional water be made available for the environment in the Murray‐Darling Basin (MDB) to mitigate the effects of what it considers to be inadequate environmental flows. To help quantify the costs of this water reallocation, a hydro‐economic model was constructed based on the 19 regions of the MDB. The model results indicate the following: (i) substantial reductions in surface water extractions of up to 4400 GL per year impose only a moderate reduction on net profits in irrigated agriculture, Basin wide, given competitive water markets, but the effects are much more pronounced in particular regions/catchments and (ii) the costs of the water reallocation are comparable with the amount budgeted by the Australian government to acquire water from willing sellers and increase environmental flows if inter‐regional water trade is unrestricted.