Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

Infrastructure Bond Markets Development in Asia: Challenges and Solutions

To sustain economic growth momentum, Asia needs to continue investing heavily in infrastructure such as roads, ports, and power plants. Financing the region’s huge demand for infrastructure investments is an essential issue for policy-makers across the region. Against the backdrop of expanding fiscal burdens of Asian governments and more stringent capital requirements on bank lending, local currency bonds can serve as an alternative for infrastructure financing in Asia. In this paper, we use empirical analysis to identify the major determinants of infrastructure bond market development. Evidence indicates that an economy’s size is positively related to infrastructure bond market development. Furthermore, we find that Project Bond Initiative, a European Union initiative, contributed significantly to infrastructure development in Europe. The implication for Asian policy-makers is that deepening regional integration of Asian bond markets would help Asian economies to reach an efficient economic scale to foster infrastructure bond market and policy measures in the forms of credit enhancement would facilitate issuance of infrastructure bonds.     

区域经济一体化下的中国参与

当今世界,经济全球化"蓬勃发展",区域经济一体化不断扩大,这是国际经济竞争的结果,也是各国经济乃至区域经济发展的利益所在。为适应这种形式,我国与世界、尤其是亚太地区各国(或地区)经济联系日益密切,加快了参与区域经济一体化的步伐,以应对区域经济一体化的机遇与挑战。     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平衡

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现,并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的"交叉需求"为基础的贸易结构作了分析;其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络,指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产(需求)对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求,所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差,结构性不平衡难以纠正;最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性,并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

Infrastructure policy in Asian developing countries

The urgent need for very large increases in investment in infrastructure in most developing countries in Asia is very clear. This paper surveys the challenges facing policymakers in the region. Nearly all of the main concerns for policymakers in Asia in addressing the global infrastructure imbalance are on the supply side. In particular, there are seven related supply-side issues that are of high priority for policymakers: selection and preparation of appropriate projects, finance, pricing, access, governance and management, policy and regulatory policies, and climate change. Governments and utilities need to improve their policies and performance to build confidence among stakeholders. Access to infrastructure services needs to be improved so that consumers will support realistic pricing policies, and investors will be encouraged to provide finance for infrastructure sectors.     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

深圳建设世界城市的战略思考

当今世界正处于政治、经济格局重新组合的历史时期,中国正在成为世界经济发展中新的增长级。深圳作为中国改革开放的前沿城市,随着国家东部沿海大都市圈发展战略的实施,深圳将面临世界城市崛起的历史机遇和空间机会。本文在国内外研究基础上,结合深圳自身特色,提出深圳建设世界城市的几点战略思考。首先,深圳要建设世界城市必须要依托国家崛起因素和依靠政府力量规划推动,通过战略设计,把城市的个性特点和资源积淀发挥到最大;其次,深圳要依托珠三角地区的发展走区域性世界城市的发展道路,加强深港合作,共同形成世界经济的新增长极;再次,深圳应抓住前海发展的契机,建设港深金融中心,抢占全球金融第三级;最后,要崛起成为新的世界城市,先要成为能够革除世界城市传统弊病的可持续发展的"理想城市",深圳要通过生态战略的制定,促进城市的可持续发展,向建设世界城市迈进一步。     

Asian Economic Community: intra-community macro-and-micro-economic parameters

In the absence of economic regionalization, the paradigm of globalization is likely to be operationally dysfunctional. In the contemporary world economy, a small subset of sovereign nation state economies commands hugely much larger shares of world output and trade while an overwhelmingly large number of such sovereign economies has their respective shares of world output and trade rather very marginal. Regionalization can help regional economic unions/communities enjoy competitive shares of world output and trade and thus become competitive actors in the inter-regional competitive world market, contributing to the success of globalism. Inadequacy of the post-WWII infrastructure for the global free market economy and the success of EU and the Euro-regime are noted. The 21-member APEC has been exposed to the great geographical divide of the Pacific Ocean, underscoring the fact that the divide of the Atlantic Ocean made the map of Europe differentiated from the Americas. Lessons from EU and the Euro-regime are noted. Based on an extensive empirical analyses of relative shares of world output and trade, the case for Asian Economic Community (AEC) has been presented. The model of 3 plus 5, three economies in Northeast Asia and five in Southeast Asia, may be the step one for the AEC.     

APEC and Asia‐Pacific regionalism: Conditions and prospects

After the Cold War and the financial crisis that wreaked havoc throughout Asia, the Asia‐Pacific region has realized the importance of their interdependence. Economic prosperity will be the cornerstone of how the world will prosper throughout the 21st century. Because of globalization, the world is changing very rapidly and thus trying to cope with adjustments. The world trade order has changed and regional trading blocs are emerging after the fall of a bipolar world, which were dominated by the communist bloc and the capitalist bloc. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, capitalism has changed how countries perceive their national interests. An analysis is provided for the growth of regionalism and the future possibilities of the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).     

基础设施投资效率与经济增长间的关系研究

基础设施建设是发展中国家发展的基础和原动力，且基础设施投资效率的高低关系到国家经济增长的态势。以东南亚国家为样本，设计投入指标和以人均 GDP 为主的产出指标，结合 SSBM 模型测算分析各国基础设施投资效率和趋势，并利用ESDA 模型对空间耦合协调度进行分析。同时，通过定义被解释变量、解释变量和控制变量对进行基础设施投资效率与经济增长间的关系实证研究。研究结果表明，东南亚国家在 2010 年至 2020 年间的基础设施投资效率在波动中提升，彼此间的差异性不大，且呈现聚拢趋势。软硬件基础设施投入对经济增长的影响和显著性最大。     

The Asian Automotive Industry: Assessing the Roles of State and Market in the Age of Global Competition

In the 1970s, automotive industries in developing economies were rebuked for their failure to set in motion the technological learning and industrial externalities that justified state promotion. However, in the 1990s, a number of Asian automotive industries throve with the rapid growth of their host economies. This paper assesses the current state and prospects of automotive industries in selected Asian countries with state-sponsored development programs—South Korea, Taiwan, China and India—and the ASEAN economies—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. To date, Korea is the only developing economy in Asia with an indigenous auto-manufacturing base capable of competing in the international market. Given developments in the world industry, the catch-up task for other countries in the region will be more difficult.     

Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been important in the growth and global integration of developing economies. Both Northeast and Southeast Asia, especially the latter, have been part of this development, with increasing inflows of FDI and greater foreign participation in local economies. However, Indonesia has been an outlier within the region. Inflows of FDI have been lower to Indonesia than to other countries, especially in manufacturing, and they have been lower than could be expected from Indonesia's size, population and other country characteristics. We show that the inflows that have occurred have benefited Indonesia, and use the East Asian experience to identify measures that are likely to increase these flows. A relatively poor business environment, inefficient government institutions, low levels of education and poor infrastructure all seem to be important explanations for the low inflows of FDI to Indonesia.     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

国际间经贸合作与区域经济开发是未来东北亚区域经济发展的核心

21世纪是世界各个经济区域进行合作的一个良好开端,因为世界经济的全球化和一体化已趋于走向成熟,随之而来的区域经济合作更富有时代特征,并对世界经济与国际贸易产生了强烈影响。与世界其它地区相比,东北亚地区的区域经济合作发展相对起步较晚,发展速度相对缓慢。本文将从世界经济发展和区域经济开发的角度出发,分析了东北亚区域经济经贸合作的内容和形式,认为这个地区未来在资源开发与合作、工业及加工贸易合作、资金、劳务和科技合作等方面将成为区域经济发展的核心。     

Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian 'Tigers'

Significant aging is projected for many high-saving emerging economies of East and Southeast Asia. By 2025, the share of the elderly in their populations will at least double in most of these countries. The share of the young will fall. Aging populations could adversely affect savings rates in these economies, particularly after 2025. For the world, one may observe that initially, the Asian Tigers become increasingly important for world savings, reflecting their high saving and growth rates and the aging of the industrial countries. After 2025, the aging of the Tigers may reinforce the tendency toward a declining world savings rate.     

区域融合下的公租房经济之政府管理途径研究

公租房是我国政府为解决城市夹心层群体住房需求派生的新一类保障性住房。其起步不久,但北京、上海、重庆、广州等城市已开始结合自身实际,探索地方公租房建设与管理途径。总体来说,全国公租房建设与管理仍存在着保障性法律规章不健全、管理体制不完善、土地和建设资金缺乏等管理瓶颈。基于公租房建设在优化地方房地产市场结构,提升地方城市化水平,推进地方融入区域经济一体化当中的作用,后发展地区从发展公租房经济的角度,建立公租房中长期规划,健全公租房相关地方法规政策,完善公租房管理体系等方面加强政府管理。这对其抓住先机促进地方经济转型升级,提高自身在区域乃至全国经济中的战略地位具有积极意义。     

Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: Motivation,framework and assessment

The Belt & Road Initiative is China's greatest international economic ambition, aiming at stimulating economic development in a vast region covering sub regions in Asia, Europe and Africa, which accounts for 64% of world population and 30% of world GDP. The Initiative is devised to reconfigure China's external sector in order to continue its strong growth. While infrastructure development plays a central role, the Belt & Road Initiative is a comprehensive one, including also policy dialogue, unimpeded trade, financial support and people-to-people exchange. It is too early to assess the impact of this ambitious Initiative. It certainly has the potential of turning the underdeveloped “Belt & Road” region into a new vibrant economic pillar and contributing to economic policy thinking by incorporating successful experiences of emerging market economies. However, the Initiative also faces very high barriers, including lack of central coordination mechanism, potential clash of different political regimes and beliefs and financial viability of cross-border projects.     

Coordination, Challenges, and Innovations in 19 National Sustainable Development Strategies

In this article, we study 19 developing and developed countries to identify key challenges, approaches, and innovations in strategic and coordinated action for sustainable development at the national level. We are interested in the institutional fabric of implementing sustainable development. What are governments actually doing to organize the processes required for this? What are the institutional innovations in this regard and what kind of typologies can be identified?Despite some true progress made, our findings indicate that countries are still at the early stages of learning toward effective action for sustainable development. This applies both to developing and developed countries. Key unsolved challenges include (a) coordination with the national budget, (b) coordination with sub-national level sustainable development strategies, and (c) coordination with other national-level strategy processes.