Trade policies and growth in emerging economies: policy experiments

This paper analyzes a dynamic endogenous growth model to quantify the channels through which international trade affects longer-term growth of an emerging economy, with an emphasis on the role played by trade policies. In the model, trade can promote (i) labor migration from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors and (ii) the inflow of foreign knowledge to enhance productivity in non-agricultural sector. The model is estimated to match with the data from selected advanced and emerging economies. Policy experiments suggest that openness to trade and elimination of trade barriers would raise annual real GDP growth by up to three percentage points for decades.

     

Recent U.S. economic policies and the Central Caribbean economies

This study examines the trade and investment performances of three economies in the Central Caribbean region since the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and associated programs. We find that the rapid growth in nontraditional exports from these economies to the United States did not necessarily translate into net foreign exchange earnings. On a per capita basis, export-related investment in Haiti was much lower than in the other two economies — Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. As a percentage of the labor force, gross employment gains for Jamaica have been significantly larger than those in either the Dominican Republic or Haiti. It appears that the policies favoring expansion in the offshore sector may foster employment opportunities of females, especially where traditional sectors are in decline.     

Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies

This paper provides an empirical examination on the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies for two non-EMU countries, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, over the period 1990–2017. We investigate the role of stock prices and consumer expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. We propose two distinct structural VAR models. The model for the case of conventional monetary policy covers the pre-2009 period, while the model for the case of unconventional monetary policy covers the post-2009 period. The official bank policy rate and central bank’s reserve assets are used as instruments for conventional and unconventional monetary policy. The analysis reveals that the inclusion of a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and a financial variable such as the stock prices is of key importance for the monetary policy assessment. We provide evidence for the existence of a consumer confidence channel in the transmission of conventional monetary policy. Moreover, the long-term government bond yields, the exchange rate and stock prices have an important role in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have short-run expansionary effects in both countries by increasing output, consumption, investment, stock prices and wages, while reducing unemployment.

     

长江中游经济区域发展的建议

在我国经济发展的区域格局中,长江经济带具有举足轻重的地位.这一经济带在区位、农业产业化、现代产业的发展和旅游资源、人才资源、市场等方面的培育都具有突出的综合优势.2000年沿江7省2市的GDP已占全国的41%,估测到2010年将达到44%左右,对我国国民经济的带动作用日趋明显.     

Portfolio modelling and growth in open economies

The standard BRANSON model is modified in a way which allows one to focus on the short term dynamics of foreign bonds markets, the money market and the stock market—or alternatively the oil market. This allows us to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate and the oil price within a portfolio choice model; also we identify critical expectation dynamics in a more conventional pricing approach to the oil market—expectations determine whether or not the oil market equilibrium is compatible with a stationary price or with sustained oil price inflation. Moreover, a straightforward innovative way to combine a portfolio approach with a growth model is developed. New results are obtained—through multiplier analysis—about the long term effects of changes in the savings rate, the process innovation rate, the product innovation variable and the money supply on the exchange rate and the stock market price; this raises many empirical issues. Finally, the analysis presented sheds new light on the global asset price dynamics in the context of the banking crisis. To the memory of Edward Graham, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.     

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62     

Economic growth and the return to capital in developing economies

An important stylized fact of economic growth is that the rateof return to capital is relatively constant across countriesand over time. This paper provides an explanation using a modelof growth for a developing economy that has a dualistic structure.Three conditions are derived, each of which may account forthe observed stability of the return to capital. The resultsaddress Lucas' criticism of conventional growth models and supportrecent growth accounting studies of East Asian economies, whichemphasize the role of increased factor inputs.     

Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

Basic needs policies and population growth

Multiple regression analysis is applied to a newly-published body of cross-country data: (a) to re-examine the effects on fertility of infant mortality, education, and the degree of equality of the income distribution; (b) to test for the existence of a lag between the decline in fertility; (c) to investigate whether interaction effects occur. It is found that basic needs oriented policies may indeed bring about an eventual decline in fertility rates as well as mortality rates — but that the full long-run effect of such policies on population growth is likely to depend crucially on the length and time-shape of the lag between the fertility and mortality reductions.     

工业绿色创新效率及地区差异研究

本文基于DEA-Malmquist指数法,测算了2010-2014年我国绿色创新效率并分析其地区差异。研究表明:2010-2014年间,我国工业绿色创新总体上是相对有效的,呈现出先上升后下降的趋势;绿色创新效率均值最高的省(区、市)是北京市,最低的是海南省。八大经济区中,东部沿海经济区绿色创新效率最高,南部沿海经济区最低,区域差异明显。     

Economic growth and the rise of protectionism and urban unrest in developing economies

This paper examines how economic growth can affect various political actors and influence trade and labor policies in a developing economy. The paper extends the Findlay-Wellisz (1982) model of endogenous trade policy to include the endogenous determination of an urban-rural wage differential along lines suggestive of the Harris-Todaro (1970) model. Under assumptions normally associated with developing economies, the model shows that growth, stimulated primarily by capital formation, can lead to the rise of protectionism and urban unrest.     

China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth

This paper presents and assesses of the contribution of inward FDI to China's recent rapid economic growth using a two stage growth accounting approach. Recent econometric literature focuses on testing whether Chinese growth depends on inward FDI rather than measuring the contribution. Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), often (but not exclusively) are joint ventures between foreign companies and Chinese enterprises, and can be thought of as forming a distinctive subpart of the Chinese economy. These enterprises account for over 50% of China's exports and 60% of China's imports. Their share in Chinese GDP has been over 20% in the last two years, but they employ only 3% of the workforce, since their average labor productivity exceeds that of Non-FIEs by around 9:1. Their production is more heavily for export rather than the domestic market because FIEs provide access to both distribution systems abroad and product design for export markets. Our decomposition results indicate that China's FIEs may have contributed over 40% of China's economic growth in 2003 and 2004, and without this inward FDI, China's overall GDP growth rate could have been around 3.4 percentage points lower. We suggest that the sustainability of both China' export and overall economic growth may be questionable if inward FDI plateaus in the future.     

Economic research and economic growth: Evidence from East Asian economies

Based upon page counts of articles published in 60 quality economics journals, the role of economic research is examined for five East Asian economies. In Hong Kong, causality runs bi-directionally between research productivity and economic growth; in Japan, the causal effects tend to be one direction from economic growth to research publications; in Korea and Taiwan, causality runs the other way around from publications to growth; and in Singapore, the causal effects are small and insignificant. Socioeconomic differences in each economy help to explain the various causal directions found.     

Trade policies,imperfect competition,and endogenous growth

Summary This paper analyses the effects of trade policies in a general equilibrium two-conutry model with imperfect competition. This model generalizes the models of monopolistic and Cournot competition. Trade is shown to be welfare-increasing in the monopolistic completition model. The same holds true in the case of endogenous growth. In the model of Coumot competition, the welfare effects of trade policies depend upon the type of entry and exit. Indeed, it is possible for two countries to increase their welfare by pursuing a coordinated policy of protection. In an endogenous growth setting, the validity of the latter finding depends upon the consumer rate of time preference.At the time of writing, the author was affiliated with the Ministry of Economic Affairs. An earlier version of this paper was presetned at the ECOZOEK-day, June 11, 1993, Tilburg and was awarded theKVS-prize 1993 of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. The author would like to thank an anonymous referre, P.A.G. van Bergeijk, R.A.de Mooij, A. Nieuwenhuis, F. van der Ploeg, J. van Sinderen, S. Smulders, and P.M. Waasdorp for useful comments. The views expressed in this paper are strictly presonal.     

Impact of nontraditional activities on scale and scope economies: A case study of Japanese regional banks

The recent financial deregulation in Japanese banking has enabled regional banks to engage in trust businesses. This paper examines the impact of such nontraditional banking activities on cost structure by measuring economies of scale and scope. A generalized translog cost function, which can take zero outputs into consideration, is employed to simultaneously investigate entrants and non-entrants. While ray scale economies are observed for trust businesses, product-specific scale economies are not. Further, cost complementarities are not observed in almost all the pairwise combinations of the products. Thus, entering into the trust business yields no cost reduction for Japanese regional banks.     

Efficiency change and productivity growth in agriculture: A comparative analysis for selected East Asian economies

This study focuses on identifying the sources of agricultural growth for eight East Asian economies – with special emphasis on factors that can better explain different components of growth. The Malmquist productivity growth index and its two components are calculated and regressed on variables including the human capital endowment, domestic R&D, international spillovers, and country-specific farming characteristics to characterize the differential patterns of growth. Our empirical evidence suggests that domestic R&D and its interaction with human capital constitute the major determinant of individual economy's progress in agricultural technology, whereas the human capital endowment is crucial for the catching up effect. Furthermore, for foreign knowledge to contribute to productivity growth either through innovation or through catching up, the host economy has to develop a sufficient learning capacity from education. Countries that do not attempt to develop the learning capability to assimilate and exploit the freely available knowledge may not benefit from international spillovers of agricultural R&D.     

The Theoretical Rationale for the Existence of Banks

The paper analyzes the reason of banks existing. It indicates from a traditional theory that banks are necessary as financial intermediary in economy system. Moreover, the rationale for the existence of banks has been proved via interpretations of various reasons. Finally, the situation and the challenges banks will confront in the future have been taken into account.