贸易便利化对中国-东盟贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用口岸效率、海关环境、国内规制环境以及电子商务应用4个指标对贸易便利化进行测度,利用引力模型定量分析贸易便利化对中国与东盟贸易流量的影响,同时分析不同的关税税率对推进贸易便利化并影响贸易流量的不同作用。最后,针对实证研究结果对贸易便利化改革提出可行性建议。     

Land Transport for Export: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), inland export transport costs and time delays are much higher for landlocked countries, vary substantially between different geographic corridors, and exhibit substantial uncertainty. Unit costs and costs of time for land transport of exports are high for many agricultural products relative to metals and other high-value products. We illustrate systemic uncertainty in land and maritime transport for exporting by use of simulation. Relationships among uncertainty, infrastructure quality, and other features of logistics systems are highly non-linear, and can be potentially used to identify priorities for trade facilitation.     

Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, we assess the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 on the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is found that bilateral exports are positively related to overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size but inversely related to the factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between ASEAN and the Plus‐6 economies (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) could increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN + 6 by US$1 billion, and ASEAN + 3 by US$981 million. Nonetheless, the trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 PTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.     

中亚国家贸易便利化发展及其评价

本文通过对中亚国家贸易便利化发展的回顾,认为中亚国家在海关通关、贸易物流、商务环境等方面促进了贸易便利领域的发展,但总体上表现为贸易便利化进程缓慢,各国贸易便利化发展差异大,贸易便利化各领域发展失衡,这严重制约了区域内的贸易增长。同时,通过分析和评价,提出了对中国的几点启示：一是在多边贸易组织框架和区域经济合作组织框架下不断推动中亚国家贸易便利化的发展;二是通过政府间的交流与合作推动中亚国家贸易便利化建设;三是加强本国,尤其是与中亚国家毗邻的新疆的贸易便利化建设。     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?*

By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN countries

The rapidly rising wages and renminbi (RMB) revaluation have attracted lively debate about whether China can continue its rapid economic growth by relying on labour‐intensive goods exports. By comparing the competitiveness in labour costs between China and ASEAN countries, with a particular emphasis on unit labour costs, we find that China has lost its competitiveness in labour costs relative to ASEAN countries. However, our results show that some regions in China, such as the northeast and northwest, still have an advantage relative to ASEAN countries. Thus, China can duplicate Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm by transferring labour‐intensive manufacturing industry from its coastal areas to non‐coastal areas.     

Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America

Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

The Dynamics of Intra-industry Trade in ASEAN*

The decision to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by the year 2008 has resulted in producers in all ASEAN countries except Singapore raising concerns relating to potential loss of market share and adjustment pressures. Underlying these concerns is the view that the expected growth in intra-ASEAN trade will be dominated by inter-industry or net trade (NT) rather than intra-industry trade (IIT). If most of the expected growth in trade is intra-industry, however, then the short-run resource re-allocation costs are likely to be lower. In this study, we employ a new methodology to analyse the dynamics of IIT in ASEAN. We overcome problems associated with using movements in the value of the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index by deriving a formula that decomposes the growth in trade into the contributions of growth in IIT and NT. Our results suggest that the role of IIT in trade growth has been increasing in importance, and thus much of the recent concern that threatens the viability of AFTA may be misplaced.     

中国—东盟大物流的初步形成及制约因素

中国—东盟自由贸易区已建立起来,并初步形成了为自由贸易区经济服务的中国—东盟大物流环境。但是东盟各成员国经济发展不平衡,存在资源、贸易、产业的竞争,自由区大物流还有待进一步完善和发展。这需要各成员国求同存异,摒弃贸易保护主义,共同完成自由贸易区大物流格局的整体升级。     

The ASEAN–Korea Trade In Services (AKTIS) Agreement: Its Impact on Indonesia and Other ASEAN Countries

To strengthen trade in services between ASEAN and Korea, in 2009 both sides signed and implemented the ASEAN–Korea Trade in Services (AKTIS) agreement. This article is the first to assess the trade implications of this agreement for Indonesia and other ASEAN countries. Despite the increasing volume of ASEAN–Korea trade in services since 2009, it is hard to say whether AKTIS was the only factor behind this encouraging growth. The agreement’s potential trade impact is, however, quite substantial. Given the importance of enhancing further trade in services between the ASEAN countries and Korea, we propose a number of specific liberalisation measures that Indonesia and other ASEAN countries could take to further strengthen such trade with their Asian neighbour.     

东盟背景下西南物流通道的经济与物流环境分析

西南物流通道是国家重点建设的战略规划之一。西南物流通道以西南经济区为基础,以中国—东盟自由贸易区为背景,是我国中西部内陆通向东盟的出海大通道。尽管西南经济具备了一定的基础,物流环境良好,但西南地区经济规模和经济结构还需要提高和调整,物流环境还需要趋于高效与和谐;西南物流通道最终会成为沟通中国与东盟国家的经济与贸易的桥梁。     

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Abstract: Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra‐ and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad‐based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.     

Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN

This study attempts to evaluate the potential economic effects of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation of trade in goods and services among the ASEAN member states (AMSs) by applying economy-wide simulation analysis based on a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We conduct a set of simulations to capture the effects of establishing free trade agreements (FTAs) in which the AMSs participate. Three key components affecting the impacts of FTAs are reduction of tariffs on goods, lowering of barriers to trade in services, and saving time-costs arising from logistics. Simulation results revealed that reducing trade barriers has a significantly positive impact on economic welfare. Although there are differences in the magnitude of positive contributions to welfare, all of the FTAs in which the AMSs participate tend to raise welfare. Among the FTAs examined in this study, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leads to the largest positive effects on real GDP for most of the AMSs.     

云南与东盟国家开展服务贸易的对策研究——基于《中国东盟服务贸易协议》

中国-东盟《服务贸易协议》于2007年7月1日起正式生效,这是中国-东盟经贸合作领域取得的又一重大成果,并创造更多的服务贸易机会。云南省是开展与东盟国家各项活动的主要省份,这也将对云南省开展与东盟国家的服务贸易带来启示,通过研究,我们将对云南省开展中国与东盟国家服务贸易提出对策。     

The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network

Global trade suffered a significant contraction in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its growth is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their relative importance in world trade as well as their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to March 2021, we find no evidence for most ASEAN and major trading countries that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic began. Our results suggest the resilience of the trade pattern for these countries.     

中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的成立对中国和东盟国家具有重要的经济与政治意义。本文利用一个扩展后的引力模型对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:CAFTA对区内贸易具有显著扩大效应的同时也显著地促进了与非成员之间的贸易;CAFTA符合"自然的贸易伙伴"的事前贸易关系紧密和空间距离接近标准;同时,CAFTA成员间产品出口结构以互补性为主;进一步降低成员间贸易壁垒、加强贸易合作对CAFTA成员间和世界贸易的扩大具有积极意义。     

AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra‐Regional Trade?

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper examines ASEAN intra- and extra-regional bias in bilateral trade flows and how these relationships have altered over time. We pay particular attention to the periods before and after the signing of AFTA as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis. Given the 'openness' of ASEAN countries we consider not only intra-ASEAN trade but also the effect of AFTA on non-members. We find that trade flows were not significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement and also that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward-oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated by the AFTA process and/or the Asian economic crisis. We do find, however, that that one effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire to source imports from within the region.