Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

“金砖四国”社会折现率的影响因素分析

社会折现率是国家公共项目决策中需要重点研究的一个参数,但数据显示,不同国家之间以及一个国家在经济发展的不同阶段,社会折现率都存在较大的差异。资本的稀缺程度、经济增长速度的快慢和通货膨胀率的高低是影响社会折现率的主要因素。本文通过1997年～2006年中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西("金砖四国")社会折现率主要影响因素的研究发现,经济增长的高速度是中国和印度社会折现率的主要支撑因素,同时我国较低的贷款利率和通货膨胀率一定程度上抵消了经济高速增长带来的高折现率数值,因此折现率低于印度;高通货膨胀率是俄罗斯社会折现率较高的主要原因;巴西尽管通货膨胀率和贷款利率处于较高的水平,但较低的经济增长速度使其社会折现率在"金砖四国"中处于最低的位置。     

Russia’s place at global intellectual (intangible) services markets in the context of transition to innovation-driven development

In elaboration of the first paper, the goal of promoting intellectual (intangible) services during Russia’s transition to an innovation-driven growth path is discussed. Three concepts (of three economic schools) of Russia’s innovation-driven growth, which can be implemented in the medium and long term, are looked at. Institutional measures and economic mechanisms aimed at the development of the nation’s science and education complex are enumerated and described at length. The intellectual (intangible) services regulation and stimulation system used in Russia is evaluated.     

中俄转型时期经济波动差异及其原因分析

通过转型解决资源配置的效率问题从而实现经济的持续稳定增长是中俄两国推动市场化经济转型的基本诉求。对转型过程中的经济增长波动及其原因进行分析有助于我们加深对经济转型的理解。本文运用H-P滤波法对1992～2010年中俄两国的经济波动进行定义,并分离出3个显著的波动差异时段,进而对产生这种差异的原因进行了分析。结论认为,俄罗斯更大的经济波动和中国相对平稳的增长态势源于两国吸收和延缓外部冲击能力的差异,更深层次的原因要在两国的经济结构和市场制度结构中寻找。     

全球化背景下俄罗斯竞争力道路选择

在普京八年总统任期内,得益于国际能源市场行情的持续高涨,俄罗斯积累了大量的"石油美元"财富。但这一有利因素似乎并没有成为俄罗斯经济增长质量改善的前提,反而,严重依赖资源出口的"贫困化"增长模式极大地制约了其经济结构调整和多样化发展。为了更好地融入全球经济竞争,普京在2006年提出了俄罗斯经济由资源型增长向创新型增长转变的战略计划。由此,基于知识生产和技术工艺革新的创新型发展道路将是提升俄罗斯经济国际竞争力的必然选择。     

Industrial structure change and economic growth: A China-Russia comparison

This paper examines the sources of economic growth and the nature of industrial structure change in China over the past decade, with a comparison to those in Russia. It shows that over the observation period between 1995 and 2008, the Chinese economy was concentrated relatively more in the manufacturing sector and relatively less in the service sector than the Russian economy. In addition, this paper finds that the higher economic growth rate in real GDP and aggregate labour productivity growth between 1996 and 2008 in China than in Russia was broadly based, with most industries contributing to China's better performance. Furthermore, it reveals that the acceleration in economic growth in China in 2003–2008 over 1996–2002 was mainly traced to an increased contribution from the manufacturing sector and to a lesser degree the service sector, while in Russia, it was the service sector, followed by the primary sector driven by the mining and oil and gas extraction industry. These results suggest that the Chinese and Russian economies complement each other, which bodes well for further economic cooperation and trade between the two countries.     

The role of economic integration and disintegration in the post-Soviet space: A quantitative analysis

Problems of economic and institutional convergence and divergence in the post-Soviet space as a factor of regional economic integration are discussed. The concepts of β and σ convergence, as well as growth rate convergence, are used to investigate quantitative characteristics of these processes. The relationship of internal and external disintegration and its role for the economic space of the CIS and Russia are elicited.     

Russia’s financial policy in the perspective period

The article considers the financial and monetary support of the economic dynamics that is required to realize the economic growth potential, the parameters of which were grounded in the forecast of Russia??s economic development until 2030 developed by the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences.     

The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

石油冲击对“金砖国家”经济增长和通胀的影响

本文从外生性、长期乘子和短期动态乘子研究石油冲击对"金砖国家"经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。文章引入了Bootstrap方法对短期动态乘子进行了统计推断,结果表明:石油价格对"金砖国家"经济具有外生性;长期而言,油价会显著拉动巴西和俄罗斯的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯的通货膨胀;短期而言,油价会显著刺激巴西、俄罗斯和南非的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯、印度和中国的通货膨胀。本文认为,石油冲击不是导致世界经济衰退的主要原因,但它可能是形成全世界范围内通货膨胀不可忽略的重要因素。     

The Green Factor of Economic Growth in Russia and the World

The article discusses the role of environmental and climate factors in the modernization of the global and Russian economies in the context of the challenges presented by the new industrial revolution. It is emphasized that a restraining effect of these factors on economic growth is primarily caused by qualitative characteristics of technologies used for resource utilization and the adaptation of population and facilities to global climate changes. The article considers a growing urgency of eco-innovations, as well as “green” technologies overall, as a factor affecting the economic growth and modernization of the economy; the unevenness of the development of these technologies in the countries of the world; and strategic risks of Russia’s lagging behind the leading world economies in this area. A special emphasis is placed upon (i) a substantiation of the significance of the mineral, raw material and fuel and energy complexes, as well as the forest-industryl and agro-industrial complex, as priority sectors for the development eco-innovations and green technologies in Russia and (ii) arguing that in Russian conditions a long-term development policy is in essence a strategy for green economic growth.     

Analyzing the factors of inflation in Russia in the years of economic reforms

The paper contains the results of econometric calculations performed with a view to investigate the main factors determining inflation in Russia in the 1994–2006 period. The processes of formation of inflation in Russia at the stages of economic crisis and economic growth are analyzed based on quarterly data.     

黑龙江省对俄贸易在稳步发展中前行

作为边境省份，黑龙江省在对俄经贸方面处于最前沿。据统计，黑龙江对俄贸易、投资、经济合作及劳务的贸易额占到全国对俄贸易总量的五分之一。目前，黑龙江省正在推进一大批对俄重点投资项目，在中俄经贸合作领域中占有突出的位置。预计随着中俄经贸合作的不断深化，黑龙江在对俄贸易中的桥头堡作用将愈加显著。     

Investment policy and peculiarities of economic growth in Russia’s federal districts in 1999–2008

The article analyzes the investment policy and peculiarities of economic growth in Russia??s federal districts in 1999?C2003 and 2004?C2008, as well as in 1999?C2008 as a whole. Judgments are made regarding the choice of control parameters in the regulatory implementation system of regions?? own resources by federal districts, taking into account the need to reduce the differences in their socioeconomic state and development.     

Pressing problems of Russia’s development

This lecture reflects the author’s concepts of the present-day economic policy of Russia, problems of economic growth rate and resources, inflation policy, and urgent changes in the field of labor and labor compensation, as well as in the social sector of the economy.     

Complex forecast of scientific and technological development: Experience and lessons learned

This paper reviews the development conditions and the results of the “Complex Program for Scientific and Technological Progress” and its impact on the economy of the former Soviet Union. The impact of the implementation results on the development of the market economy in Russia is analyzed. Problems partly resolved under the complex program are outlined. It is shown that many outstanding scientific-technological and socioeconomic development problems are due to the characteristics of the applied economic models. Limitations of the current market model of the economy oriented towards the export of natural resources are highlighted. Possibilities and conditions required for a transition from the resource-oriented growth model to the innovation-based development paradigm are presented.     

Cooperation between Russia and the European Union: From importing to exporting technology

This article analyzes the trade and economic relations between Russia and European Union. It has been shown that the existing substantial qualitative imbalance in the mutual trade f lows is largely due to the level of development of innovation systems in Russia and the European Union. Arguments have been presented for implementing an import substitution strategy in regions of Russia in the existing political and economic situation (the sanctions against Russia and the depreciation of the ruble). Proposals have been presented for the development of import substitution in regions of Russia (in the case of the Vologda oblast).     

Modern problems and development prospects of the Russian budgetary system

The article describes problems of modern budgetary system of Russia. If these problems have been solved, economic growth could be restored. Suggested measures of budgetary policy have been divided into priority measures, which are affected in the next one or two years, as well as medium-term measures     

Medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy

Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate.     

The problem of reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on primary product exports and economic policy alternatives

This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the high dependence of Russia’s socioeconomic development on the world market prices of hydrocarbon resources and their production volumes. The author analyzed the mechanisms underlying this dependency using a model of centrally planned economy without technical progress. The author shows that growth in raw materials production and prices leads to the “Dutch disease,” which is, hence, an economic growth paradox typical of open economies and having a resource-technological and structural character. The author’s conclusion is that welfare growth opportunities are underutilized under Dutch disease conditions in case of government restrictions on primary product exports aimed at conserving the trading sector. The case is made for increasing labor productivity in the Russian economy in order to overcome its dependence on the oil and gas exports.