Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability

Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate—defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables—is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate instability due to self-fulfilling expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sluggish-price environments.     

Exchange rate expectations and monetary policy

The adjustment process to a monetary disturbance is studied in a model of perfect capital mobility and flexible exchange rates. Exchange rate expectations are emphasized and used to establish an adjustment process. In the short run, a monetary expansion gives rise to a depreciation in the exchange rate and a reduction in saving due to the terms of trade deterioration. The exchange rate depreciation, in the short run, may be in excess of the long-run depreciation. The trade balance in the short run may worsen. The long-run equilibrium of the analysis conforms to the Mundell-Fleming results that establish the force of monetary policy under flexible rates.     

Exchange rate overshooting,the trade balance,and rational expectations

This paper presents a model of exchange-rate determination characterized by imperfect asset substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds, sticky goods-market prices, and rational expectations. The model is used to analyze the response of the exchange rate to a step change in relative money supplies. The assumption of imperfect asset substitutability permits introduction into the analysis of trade flows which respond to relative price changes. These flows create non-monotonic exchange-rate adjustments to long-run equilibrium. These non-monotonic adjustments are consistent with rationality, and may lead to short-run undershooting or overshooting.     

Estimating the speeds of long-run technological catch-up and growth of total factor productivity for countries

This paper constructs a dynamic production frontier function under the framework of a forward-looking rational expectations model, taking the effect of quasi-fixed inputs into account. The sample comprises balanced panel data of 36 countries over the period from 1990 to 2009. Evidence is found that all of the four country groups show the technological catch-up phenomenon in the long run and experience total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Their TFP growth is primarily driven by long-run technical efficiency improvement, followed by technological progress. The Non-G7 and Non-NICs groups are the top two groups in terms of speeds of long-run technological catch-up and rates of TFP growth.     

A dynamic model of tariffs,output and employment under flexible exchange rates

A portfolio balance model of the open economy with imperfectly flexible wages and rational expectations is used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of commercial policy. Previous analyses have led to the ‘counterintuitive’ and ‘almost inconceivable’ conclusion that, under flexible exchange rates, a tariff is contractionary. By considering a tariff in a dynamic setting and focusing on the process of adjustment, it is shown that there may exist a tradeoff between a tariffs short-run and long-run effects. In certain circumstances, a tariff imposed under flexible exchange rates increases output and employment initially while reducing them subsequently.     

The Monetary Policy Model

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy. An austere version of the model, with no information asymmetries, is valid only to a first approximation but nevertheless provides core insights to short- and long-run monetary policy. In this model, effective policy requires clarity of policy goals and clarity of the policy model as to how the economy works. The central bank must enjoy sustained credibility in the markets. Communication should focus on policy fundamentals and the monetary authorities’ understanding of the economy, both of which are enhanced by continued research by monetary policy experts. JEL Classification E5     

The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output,prices and the balance of payments

A general equilibrium model shows how the government, by using aggregate demand policies, temporarily influences economic activity. In the long run, however, aggregate supply determines output and employment levels. International reserves are lost (gained) during the adjustment process due to policies which keep aggregate demand above (below) its long-run sustainable level. Such policies, if maintained, induce expectations of exchange rate changes. The self-fulfilling character of these expectations will force the government to devalue or revalue, thus neutralizing its previous demand policies.     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

On the inflation-unit labor cost relation

This paper investigates the independent effects of wage and productivity growth on inflation utilizing Weintraub's Wage-Cost-Markup (WCM) model. An Alternative WCM model formed by considering asymmetry in adjustment speeds of wage and productivity growth on pricing produces long-run effects conforming to a priori expectations concerning the magnitude and equality of inflation's response to wage and productivity growth. The model also produces improved predictive performance when compared with an estimated equation relating inflation to current unit labor cost growth. The findings offer a price equation that can be employed in econometric models relating inflation to unit labor cost growth.     

MEAN VARIANCE PREFERENCES, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE DYNAMICS OF RANDOM ASSET PRICES

This paper analyzes the dynamics of an explicit random process of prices and price expectations of finitely many assets in an economy with overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. They maximize expected utility with respect to subjective transition probabilities defined by Markov kernels which describe the forecasting behavior of agents. Given such forecasting rules (predictors) and an exogenous process of dividends, the evolution of equilibrium asset prices and expectations is described by a random dynamical system in the sense of Arnold (1998) . The paper investigates the long-run behavior (stationary solutions) by proving the existence and stability of random fixed points for mean-variance preferences under various predictors, including unbiased predictions, and adaptive, as well as OLS forecasting. An explicit characterization of rational expectations solutions is given, providing a full dynamic characterization of asset price processes for the classical CAPM in the case of stationary OLG economies. Numerical simulations are used to compare the performance of the different predictors under an AR(1) dividend process.     

How Pretrial Expectations and Anticipated Obstacles Impact University Brand Identification

ABSTRACT

Despite the growing interest in brand identification as a mechanism of soliciting organizational citizenship behaviors, little is known about the role of expectations and anticipated obstacles as antecedents of the construct. To address this gap, this study examines antecedents of brand identification including academic and social expectations as well as academic, financial, and personal obstacles in first-time incoming first-year college students. Results align with the theoretical underpinnings of brand identification, namely social identity theory, by showing that social expectations explain far more variance in brand identification than the other antecedents in the model. The resulting insights provide guidance to administrators on the pretrial consumer perceptions of students that correlate with brand identification.     

Feel free to keep quiet: The implications of employee voice expectations

Although we know that expectations predict behavioural engagement, researchers have yet to examine the impact of voicers' expectations on the voice engagement process. This conceptual paper introduces the construct of voice expectations and explores the role that voicer expectations play in the voice process. In doing so, I build a conceptual model of the voice expectancy violation and confirmation process and discuss the role the voicer's violated or confirmed expectations can have on future decisions to speak up.     

Service Quality Perceptions of Foreign Direct Investors

ABSTRACT

In this article, the potential disparity between foreign direct investment (FDI) clients' service quality expectations and the actual service experienced (Gap 5) and how these impacts FDI inflows are investigated. Methodological triangulation encompassing quan-titative and qualitative methods is used. Contrary to the quantitative findings, the qualitative findings indicate that Gap 5 exists among the FDI clients. This is the first time the service quality model (performance-based construct) has been used to study FDI issues. Rather than applying the predominant “inside-out” mindset, the model adopts an “outside-in” mindset that uses perceived (actual) service as a reference point for clients' evaluation of service quality.     

Contemporary and long-run correlations: A covariance component model and studies on the S&P 500 cash and futures markets

In this article, a multivariate component model for conditional asset return covariance is developed as an extension to the univariate volatility component model of Engle & Lee (1999). The conditional covariance now is decomposed into a long-run (trend) component and a short-run (transitory) component. Through the decomposition, relationships like the long-run correlation and volatility copersistence can be studied solely upon examining the long-run trend of the conditional covariance. The decomposition also has important implications in studying portfolio hedging problems such as the multi-period minimum-variance hedging for long-term portfolio management. The empirical study in this article focuses on estimating the covariance component structure between the S&P 500 cash and futures markets and their contemporary and long-run correlation relationship and the volatility copersistence relationship. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 877–894, 1999     

Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

知识经济与会计

随着知识经济的到来,知识经济将对现有很多行业产生深远影响,会计也同样深受影响。因为知识经济的发展引起的产业结构的重大调整,产品结构的显著变化,产品成本迅速降低,产品更新换代加快,生产周期大大缩短,从而使会计赖以生存的经济环境发生了根本性变化,特别是对会计假设、会计要素、会计方法的影响更大,而这一系列影响又给会计工作提出了新的课题和新的要求,促使会计工作者冷静思考:针对知识经济时代的到来,我们该做些什么?     

The saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure in developing countries: A dynamic H–O model under an oligopolistic market structure

This paper constructs an oligopolistic dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) model of a small open economy to analyze the relationship between the saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure. The analysis shows that the saving rate determines the trade commodity structure of a country in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, a developing country with a low capital–labor ratio in the initial state will change from exporting labor-intensive goods in the initial state to exporting capital-intensive goods in the long-run equilibrium if it has a higher saving rate, and this upgrade of trade commodity structure has a social welfare effect under an oligopolistic market structure. The effect of trade policy on the upgrade of the trade commodity structure is uncertain in our model; therefore, a high saving rate is the irreplaceable driving force for trade commodity structure upgrades in developing countries.     

Low socioeconomic class and consumer complexity expectations for new product technology

This research improves the field's understanding of subsistence consumers by investigating how low socioeconomic class relates to expectations of complexity from new products. The study tests a model of the relationship between consumer socioeconomic class, self-esteem, self-assessed capabilities, and knowledge about product domains, and the influence of self-esteem, self-assessed capabilities, and product domain knowledge on consumer expectations of complexity when facing a new product technology. A sample of 266 Colombian consumers representing different socio-economic classes is used to test the model using structural equation modeling. The results show that self-esteem, self-assessed capabilities, and product domain knowledge are predictive of expectations of complexity, with low self-esteem, low capabilities, and low product knowledge leading to higher complexity expectations. Socioeconomic status relates closely to self-esteem, self-assessed capabilities, and product domain knowledge and can be used as a surrogate for the individual-level constructs.     

Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.     

The gains from international trade in the context of a growing economy

This paper discusses the effects of trade on long-run equilibrium values of some important economic variables of a small growing economy under alternative assumptions about the saving behavior. Using a two-commodity and two-factor model it is shown that long-run gains from trade depend not only on the saving behavior but also on the comparative advantage of the country at its autarkic steady state.