Trade flows: a facet of regionalism or globalisation?

This paper examines the evidence about the extent of globalisationby focusing on some aspects of international trade flows. Areinterpretation of the existing evidence based on the analysisof tables and a range of indicators is provided in the firstpart of the paper. The focus is on whether the increase in tradeflows has been predominantly a global or regional phenomenon.The analysis points to the tentative conclusion that the dominanttendency is the increase in trade within regional blocs (NorthAmerica, the EU and the Asia–Japan blocs) rather thanacross them. To address the same question, a more formal analysisis undertaken in the second part of the paper, by focusing onthe relative speed of the convergence in openness within andacross regions of the world. Our results indicate that the degreeof openness converges faster across the countries of a givenregion rather than at the global level, reinforcing the conclusionsfrom the first part of the paper. The results are consistentwith the view that trade integration is more of a ‘regional’phenomenon than a ‘global’ one.     

Rethinking the development agenda

This paper calls for a development agenda based on five majorpremises: (1) a more balanced form of globalisation based ona genuine respect for diversity; (2) a broad view of macroeconomicstability, which provides an adequate role for counter-cyclicalpolicies; (3) the need to complement macroeconomic stabilitywith active productive development policies; (4) strong socialpolicies and the mainstreaming of social objectives into economicpolicies to guarantee adequate linkages between economic andsocial development; and (5) the recognition that developmentinvolves broader human development goals.     

中国和印度不平衡发展的比较研究

本文考察了中国和印度近年来经济增长不平衡的情况,并分析了不平衡增长对不均等和贫困的影响。通过对家庭调查数据和官方加总数据的分析,本文发现增长存在不平衡——区域间、产业间和家庭层面上,这表明减贫工作进展不平衡,若增长更平衡,减贫效果可能更好;另外,收入不均等程度也在提高。本文探讨了增长不平衡及其应引起重视的原因。具体讨论围绕"有利的"和"不利的"不均等两个概念展开——不均等与不平衡增长对公平性以及长期增长与发展的有利或不利影响。我们认为,需要制定相关政策,保持有利的不均等——继续鼓励创新和投资,同时降低不利的不均等的程度,尤其是通过人力资本和农村基础设施投资,帮助贫困人口参与市场。     

Nationalism, development and integration: the political economy of Ernest Gellner

In this paper, we show how in Gellner we can find a stimulatinganalysis of the institutional equilibria that characterise agrarianand industrial society and the conditions that make possibleinstitutional change from one equilibrium to another. This allowsa convincing account of the reasons why some countries industrialisedbefore others and why nationalism had such an uneven impacton the development of market economies. We consider the relationbetween Gellner's analysis and other theories of organisationand point out how Gellner can help to solve some paradoxes thatarise in these theories. We also argue that joining Gellner'scontribution to the analysis of the positional nature of statusand power reinforces his conclusion about the necessary stagnationof agrarian societies and the necessary (over)accumulation ofdifferent forms of capitalism. We conclude by examining theimplications of his analysis for the process of globalisationand its challenge to national states.     

Globalisation as commodification

While recognising that most pre-capitalist formations exhibitedelements of commodity exchange, Marx argued that capitalismdifferentiates itself as a genuine commodity system by virtueof two interdependent processes having reached a critical stageof development: a ‘stretching’ of commodity relationsto the point where production for the market displaces subsistenceproduction as the primary form; and a ‘deepening’of commodity relations such that these encompass not only goodsand services but the capacities for producing them. This paperargues that globalisation can best be understood as the culminatingstage of these stretching and deepening processes: the formerin the sense that commodity relations now embrace the entireplanet and the latter in the sense that they cover not merelygoods, or the capacities for producing goods, but also everyother type of capacity and every other type of outcome.     

中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素

本文考察我国 2 0世纪 80年代和 90年代地区经济差距的变动趋势 ,分析资本、劳动力、人力资本等生产要素在各地区间的配置与流动状况及其动因 ,考察这些因素对地区差距变化的作用 ,同时也考察制度变革和结构变化等因素对地区经济差距变化的影响。在此基础上判断地区差距变动的未来趋势 ,并分析在不妨碍经济效率的前提下 ,哪些政策因素有助于缩小地区差距。     

The global economy--myths and realities

Hirst and Thompson's Globalization in Question is the key textquestioning claims of economic globalisation. This review ofits revised second edition examines its main claims: that contemporarylevels of international integration fall short of the Gold Standardperiod; genuinely global companies remain exceptional; capitalmobility is not shifting economic activity to developing countrieswholesale; international economic activity is primarily regionalrather than global; and that international economic activityis sanctioned by nation states and remains subject to theirpolitical power. This review argues that, while their evidenceprovides a useful corrective to extreme globalisation views,focusing on this view understates changes in the internationaleconomy.     

我国粮食主产区农业高质量发展的区域差异及收敛性分析

全面认识粮食主产区农业高质量发展差异的空间特性,为推动粮食主产区农业高质量的协调发展提供有益启示。本文从新发展理念出发,构建农业高质量发展综合评价指标体系,运用加入时间变量的熵值法测度2003-2018年我国粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平,利用Dagum基尼系数揭示其发展的区域差异大小及其来源,并采用多种收敛方法考察其收敛性特征。结果显示：粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平较低,在波动中呈总体上升趋势;粮食主产区农业高质量发展存在显著的区域差异,其差异在波动中呈总体下降趋势,区域内差异与区域间差异交替成为区域差异的主要来源;粮食主产区农业高质量发展具备典型的收敛和收敛特征,分区域和分时期的收敛性具有明显的异质性特征。因此为提升农业高质量发展水平和缩小区域差距,需要进一步深化农业供给侧结构性改革,积极发展农业新业态和新模式,并通过“追赶效应”和“以高带低”拉动机制,推动粮食主产区农业高质量发展的跨区域协同提升。     

Structural economic dynamics: an alternative approach to North-South models

This paper isolates the mechanisms responsible for the difficultiesfacing poor regions in growing faster than rich ones. The analysisof uneven development is carried out in a framework where changesin demand composition are consistent with Engel's Law. The standpointof the analysis is the interaction between technical progress—whichproduces responses in per capita income—and changes ofper capita consumption. The paper focuses on one case in whichpreferences are homothetic and there is capital dependence,showing that the latter assumption is sufficient to explainthe inequalities between poor and rich regions. When dealingwith the case of non-homothetic tastes, adverse movements inthe terms of trade and the international demonstration effect,which are both due to the inelastic demand for goods producedby poor regions, are the mechanisms responsible for uneven development.     

Avoiding arbitrary exclusion restrictions using ratios of reduced-form estimates

We show how to obtain coherent structural-form (SF) exclusion restrictions using the reduced-form (RF) parameter ratios. It will be shown that an over-identified SF corresponds to a group of regressors sharing the same RF ratio value; those regressors should be excluded jointly from the SF. If there is no group structure, then the SF is just-identified; in this case, however, it is no longer clear which regressor should be excluded. Hence, just-identified SF’s are more arbitrary than over-identified SF’s in terms of exclusion restrictions. This is in stark contrast to the notion that the former is less arbitrary than the latter, because the former excludes fewer regressors. We formalize these points, and then suggest to find the number of modes in the estimated RF ratios as a way to find groups in the ratios. For this purpose, an informal graphical method using a kernel nonparametric method and a formal modality test are employed. An empirical example with selling price in a residential real estate market and duration on the market as two endogenous variables is provided. The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for their comments     

Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a Walrasian auctioneer

We show that the “fear” of globalisation can be rationalised by economic theory in the standard AD/AS equilibrium model, if we substitute the coordinational role of the Auctioneer by an implementation device based on learning (Guesnerie in Am Econ Rev 82, 1254–1278, 1992). When endowing producers with a learning ability to forecast market prices, individual profit-maximizing production decisions become interdependent in a strategic sense (strategic substitutes). Performing basic comparative statics exercises, we show that “competitiveness” matters in a precise sense: as foreign producers gain access to the home market, home producers’ ability to forecast market prices is undermined, so being their ability to forecast the profit consequences of their production decisions. A standard open economy exercise shows that the efficiency gains triggered by increased competition have to be traded-off against higher uncertainty (a lower likelihood to coordinate upon the welfare enhancing free-trade equilibrium). We interpret it as a new rationale for the existence of barriers to trade targeting coordination, rather than protecting mere inefficient sectors or industries (political economy driven). Finally, we show that classical measures evaluating ex-ante the desirability of economic integration (net welfare gains) do not always advice free trade. I wish to specially thank Roger Guesnerie, Thierry Verdier and an anonymous referee for their helpful suggestions. Comments by Facundo Albornoz, Pol Antràs, Gregory Corcos, Maurice Kugler, Robin Mason, Victor Norman, Emmanuel Ornelas and Susanna Thede are sincerely acknowledged. Audiences at the U. of Alicante, U. Autonoma de Barcelona, ETSG 2005 (Dublin), FGV-EPGE (RJ, Brazil), LACEA 2005 (Paris), the Miwest Trade Meeting at Minneapolis 2007, the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), SBE 2005 (Natal, Brazil), U. of Southampton and T2M 2005 are acknowledged. The contents constitute chapter 4 of my PSE-EHESS PhD thesis, extended while I visited the NYU Economics department, sponsored by A. Bisin. Financial support from the Bank of Spain and CNRS is sincerely acknowledged.     

Exclusion by cognitive limitation

We show a model where exclusion can be the only outcome because of some cognitive limitation.     

A political-economic analysis of the failure of neo-liberal restructuring in post-crisis Korea

This paper evaluates IMF-led neo-liberal restructuring in post-crisisKorea. The main conclusions are that: the economic rebound in1999–2000 was both incomplete and unsustainable; restructuringcreated a ongoing credit crunch that continues to constraininvestment spending; Korea may have been pushed onto a long-termlow-investment, low-growth trajectory; insecurity and inequalityhave risen substantially; and the influence of foreign capitalhas dramatically increased. The paper concludes by suggestingthat Koreans should reject radical neo-liberal restructuringand consider instead reforms to democratise and modernise theirtraditional state-guided growth model.     

贫困地区居民完全金融排斥影响因素的实证研究

笔者基于我国贫困地区10个县1682个样本使用金融服务的调查数据,运用Logistic回归方法对完全金融排斥的影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明,居民就业、收入和受教育程度对完全金融排斥有重要的影响,其他的影响因素还有区域、年龄、房产权和家庭规模。研究结果还表明性别、婚姻、健康、民族、社会阶层对完全金融排斥的影响不明显。本文认为贫困地区居民金融排斥问题的解决需要有关方面采取措施提高居民的收入、改善金融服务的结构、提高贫困地区教育发展水平,增加贫困地区居民家庭财产的累积。     

中国工业化与信息化融合质量:理论与实证

本文构建完全竞争和不完全竞争条件下的工业化与信息化融合模型,将随机前沿分析方法应用于工业化与信息化融合研究,以2000-2009年中国31个省市面板数据探讨中国工业化与信息化融合质量并发现:首先,融合具有周期大约为5年的间断平衡性,信息化带动工业化路径与两者融合的相关性高于工业化促进信息化路径,工业化和信息化对各自理想水平的偏离呈交替波动等三个主要特点;其次,融合对中国转变经济增长方式、三次产业结构调整、降低单位GRP电力消费和能耗有不同程度的影响。融合水平每增加一个点(以百分计),人均GRP可增长0.06%;融合可显著减少第一产业的产值比重,促使第一产业向第二或第三产业转移;融合可减少单位地区生产总值电力消费和能源消耗,但这种影响很小,不具统计显著性。     

中国区域绿色创新效率收敛性研究

将环境污染、创新失败因素列为非期望产出指标,运用2006—2016年中国内地30个省份面板数据,构建SBM—DEA模型对中国绿色创新效率及其区域差异进行测算,进而采用σ收敛模型、绝对β收敛模型、条件β收敛模型考察中国区域绿色创新效率的收敛性。结果表明：中国区域绿色创新效率整体上呈现上升趋势,但存在较大区域差异,东部地区绿色创新效率远高于中、西部地区;全国及东、中、西部地区绿色创新效率均不存在明显的σ收敛,但存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,且影响收敛的显著性因素各不相同。     

Banning Bidders from All-pay Auctions

We consider an all-pay auction with complete information among the bidders; the seller does not observe the bidders’ values. We show that for some information structures in which the seller has a small uncertainty about the valuations, it is profitable for him to exclude from the auction all but two (randomly selected) bidders even though the latter are ex ante identical from his point of view.I am grateful to Paolo Bertoletti who introduced me to this topic and provided useful comments. I also thank Dan Kovenock (Co-Editor) and two anonymous referees for suggestions which considerably improved the exposition.