Tacit collusion and capacity withholding in repeated uniform price auctions

This article analyzes tacit collusion in infinitely repeated multiunit uniform price auctions in a symmetric oligopoly with capacity‐constrained firms. Under two popular definitions of the uniform price, when each firm sets a price‐quantity pair, perfect collusion with equal sharing of profit is easier to sustain in the uniform price auction than in the corresponding discriminatory auction. Moreover, capacity withholding may be necessary to sustain this outcome. Even when firms may set bids that are arbitrary finite step functions of price‐quantity pairs, in repeated uniform price auctions maximal collusion is attained with simple price‐quantity strategies exhibiting capacity withholding.     

Designing electricity auctions

Motivated by the new auction format in the England and Wales electricity market, as well as the recent debate in California, we characterize bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids, and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. We also consider the relationship between market structure and market performance in the two auction formats.     

RULE CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN DISCRIMINATORY AND UNIFORM PRICE AUCTIONS

The auction literature indicates that uncertainty about the value of auctioned goods increases underpricing in discriminatory price auctions. Such uncertainty has a smaller effect on uniform price auctions because the pricing rule aggregates bidders' information. We find that uncertainty resulting from inexperience with an auction mechanism has similar effects. Using initial public offering (IPO) data from Japan and Israel, we find that average underpricing increases temporarily in Japan's discriminatory price auctions after changes in the auction rules, which suggests that bidders reduce their bids in response to uncertainty. Underpricing in Israel's uniform price auctions is not affected by rule changes.     

Land Auctions with Budget Constraints

This paper tests for the effects of financial constraints on open-bid English land auction prices and bids. It is argued that bidders’ ability to pay, taken as capital resources and/or capital budget constraints, influence bids and final auction prices. While high capital resource developers may elect to bid more than optimal to win auctions, or bidders may elect to pool resources in joint bidding, budget constraints imposed by firm-specific financial variables on the other hand are expected to restrict bids. Land auction data in Hong Kong are used to test systematically these predictions. It is found that a firm’s age, the number of winners in a joint bid, and firm status in the market are positively related to prices, all factors which may be attributed to a firm’s ability to finance the auction price. Firm size, internal funds, financing cost, debt capacity and existing capital expenditure are also shown to affect bids submitted in land auctions: firm size and internal funds are positively related to bid prices; while constrained debt capacity, financing cost and existing capital expenditure lower bids. The results are consistent with predictions that a firm’s financial constraints, and thus its effect on capital budgets, are relevant factors in predicting land auction outcomes. More generally, these findings confirm that similar financial factors that constrain corporate capital investment also influence directly acquisition of assets at auctions.     

Sovereign debt auctions: Uniform or discriminatory?

Many financial assets, especially government bonds, are issued by an auction. An important feature of the design is the auction pricing mechanism: uniform versus discriminatory. Theoretical papers do not provide a definite answer regarding the dominance of one type of auction over the other. We investigate the revealed preferences of the issuers by surveying the sovereign issuers that conduct auctions. We find that the majority of the issuers/countries in our sample use a discriminatory auction mechanism for issuing government debt. We use a multinomial logit procedure and discriminatory analysis to investigate the mechanism choice. It was interesting to find that market-oriented economies and those that practice common law tend to use a uniform method while economies who are less market oriented and practice civil law tend to use discriminatory price auctions.     

Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes

This article develops a theory of multiunit auctions where shortsqueezes can occur in the secondary market. Both uniform anddiscriminatory auctions are studied and bidders can submit multiplebids. We show that bidders with short and long preauction positionshave different valuations in an otherwise common value setting.Discriminatory auctions lead to more short squeezing and higherrevenue than uniform auctions, ceteris paribus. Asymptotically,as the auction size approaches infinity, the two formats leadto equivalent outcomes. Shorts employ more aggressive equilibriumbidding strategies. Most longs strategically choose to be passive.Free riding on a squeeze by small, long players has no impacton these results, but affects revenue in discriminatory auctions.     

Not knowing the competition: evidence and implications for auction design

In a government auction program where first-price auctions generate significantly higher revenue than English auctions, I document evidence that bidders are uncertain about the number of auction entrants. Motivated by additional data evidence, I estimate a structural model of auctions in which rivals' participation is stochastic, allowing for bidders' risk aversion and asymmetry. Counterfactual simulations reveal that bidders' uncertainty about the number of entrants, combined with risk aversion, substantially softens the revenue impact of low competition in first-price auctions. This explains the observed revenue patterns and uncovers an empirically important reason for sellers to favor first-price auctions over English auctions.     

Market Sentiments,Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions

This paper empirically tests auction theory by examining how the stock market evaluates the outcome of open-bid English auctions of rights to develop residential real estate projects in Hong Kong. To do so, we deconstruct the complexity surrounding actual auction events, and empirically isolate the influence of conflicting auction theory predictions using data from expert opinion around auction events, actual auction event and outcome data, and stock market data. The empirical findings include (1) with increasing uncertainty bidders reduce bids, thus confirming predictions following the winner’s curse thesis; (2) joint bidding does not lead to increased bids based on pooled (“better”) information, but instead leads to reduced competition; while increased competition leads to increased prices at auction, as expected; (3) the market interprets auction outcomes as information events which function to signal developers’ expectations about future market prospects; but if the winning bid is considered too high, this interpretation is revised to that of the winner’s curse; (4) with joint bidding and winning, the market’s response to joint winners is better explained by concern for winner’s curse (despite supposed better informed bids) than the acquisition of a below cost development project following reduced competition at auction; and (5) the market interprets increased competition at auction as indicator of the future direction of property price movements in the secondary market—the more intense the competition, the more positive the future prospect of the property market are seen to be.     

Auctions of divisible goods: on the rationale for the treasury experiment

We compare a sealed-bid uniform-price auction (the Treasury'sexperimental format) with a sealed bid discriminatory auction(the Treasury's format heretofore), assuming the good is perfectlydivisible. We show that the auction theory that prompted theexperiment, which assumes single-unit demands, does not adequatelydescribe the bidding game for Treasury securities. Collusivestrategies are self-enforcing in uniform-price divisible-goodauctions. In these equilibria, the seller's expected revenueis lower than in equilibria of discriminatory auctions.     

Do Unexpected Land Auction Outcomes Bring New Information to the Real Estate Market?

Land and real estate are intrinsically related but generally traded in two different markets. Vacant land, being a major “raw material” for development of real estate, is traded by developers who actively manage development risk for profit. Real estate, being a long lived final product, is traded by end-users or investors for use or investment in the secondary market. This study examines price discovery between the two markets. The key question is whether land transactions, in the form of public auctions, convey any new information to the secondary real estate market. Our results suggest unexpected land auction outcomes have both market-wide and local effects on real estate prices. However, the impacts are asymmetric. We found that lower than expected land auction prices have a significant negative market-wide and local impact on real estate prices while higher than expect land auction prices have little or no impact.     

The Impact of Capacity Costs on Bidding Strategies in Procurement Auctions

This paper analyzes the impact of capacity costs on bidding strategies of firms participating in procurement auctions. More efficient firms will invest in advance due to their high probability of winning the auction while less efficient bidders prefer to wait with their investments until the outcome of the auction is known. However, in equilibrium both types of firms include a coverage for their investment costs in their bids and therefore adopt a full cost pricing policy. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Endogenous asymmetry in a dynamic procurement auction

We show how to numerically solve for a Markov‐perfect equilibrium of a dynamic auction game where a procurer repeatedly purchases construction services from capacity‐constrained firms. We find that the procurer is best off scheduling frequent auctions for small project sizes. Otherwise, firm capacity utilization rates become larger and more asymmetric, which softens competition and increases procurement costs. We also find that forward‐looking bidding dampens the competition‐softening effects of asymmetry: farsighted firms compete more intensely than myopic ones. This can undermine the goal of a bid‐preference‐style affirmative action program: more farsighted firms respond less to the asymmetry induced via bid preferences.     

Behavior in a simplified stock market: the status quo bias, the disposition effect and the ostrich effect

Previous literature suggests specific behavioral tendencies cause investors to deviate from optimal investing. We investigate three such tendencies in a simplified stock market. Subjects do trade for better stocks, but do not reach their maximum potential earnings, most commonly because they choose to ignore information and continue to hold on to a stock regardless of its performance. The results support the predictions of the status quo bias, but not the ostrich effect or the disposition effect. This research is an extension of Brown’s undergraduate honors thesis at Ohio State University. Financial support was provided by the Honor’s College and the Department of Economics at Ohio State University. Kagel’s research was partially supported by grants from the National Science Foundation. We received helpful comments from Hal Arkes, David Cooper and two anonymous referees.     

Competition and Cooperation in Divisible Good Auctions: An Experimental Examination

An experimental approach is used to examine the performanceof three different multiunit auction designs: discriminatory,uniform-price with fixed supply, and uniform-price with endogenoussupply. We find the actual strategies to be inconsistent withtheoretically identified equilibrium strategies. The discriminatoryauction is found to be more susceptible to collusion than eitheruniform-price auction and so, contrary to theoretical predictionsand previous experimental results, it generates the lowest averagerevenue. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the actualbid schedules are more elastic with reducible supply or discriminatorypricing than in the uniform-price auction with fixed supply.     

Treasury Auction Bids and the Salomon Squeeze

Recent press accounts claim that collusion is common practice in Treasury auctions and that as a result the auction profits are excessive. But, this paper finds that the auction prices are on average marginally higher than the secondary market bid prices. The auction profits, however, are systematically related to the total fraction of winning bids tendered by banks and dealers. The postauction prices of the two-year notes in which Salomon Brothers had a 94 percent holding are also examined. The secondary market prices of these notes were significantly higher than the estimated competitive prices in the four-week postissue period.     

The overconfidence of investors in the primary market

We analyze the investment performance of 6993 investors bidding in 77 discriminatory IPO auctions in the Taiwan stock market between January 1996 and April 2000, and find that frequent bidders in these auctions have lower returns than infrequent bidders. The frequent bidders bid too aggressively and evaluate the IPO firms too optimistically, resulting in inferior performance. Despite being quite successful in their first few auction bids, the returns for frequent investors are gradually reduced in subsequent auctions. The multivariate model and the analysis of the possibility of perverse incentives of brokerage firms suggest that our findings cannot be explained by rational hypotheses, whereas in contrast, the theories on overconfidence and self-attribution bias can explain the increase in bidding frequency and the deterioration in return performance for bidders in IPO auctions.     

Automatic bankruptcy auctions and fire-sales

We test for fire-sale tendencies in automatic bankruptcy auctions. We find evidence consistent with fire-sale discounts when the auction leads to piecemeal liquidation, but not when the bankrupt firm is acquired as a going concern. Neither industry-wide distress nor the industry affiliation of the buyer affect prices in going-concern sales. Bids are often structured as leveraged buyouts, which relaxes liquidity constraints and reduces bidder underinvestment incentives in the presence of debt overhang. Prices in “prepack” auctions (sales agreements negotiated prior to bankruptcy filing) are on average lower than for in-auction going-concern sales, suggesting that prepacks may help preempt excessive liquidation when the auction is expected to be illiquid. Prepack targets have a greater industry-adjusted probability of refiling for bankruptcy, indicating that liquidation preemption is a risky strategy.     

Collusion and heterogeneity of firms

We examine the impact of heterogeneous discounting on collusion in dynamic Bertrand competition. We show exactly when collusion can be sustained and how collusion would be organized efficiently with heterogeneous discounting. First, we show that collusion is possible if and only if the average discount factor exceeds a certain threshold, with or without capacity constraints. Next, we identify a dynamic pattern of market share that characterizes efficient collusion and obtain the unique long‐run prediction despite the presence of multiple equilibria. In the long run, the most patient firm and the most impatient firm tend to dominate the market.     

USING AUCTIONS TO ALLOCATE AND PRICE LONG-TERM CREDIT

Most long-term credit in developing countries is allocated throughnegotiated agreements between government institutions and financialintermediaries or final borrowers, and often at administeredrates. Yet many developing countries have no long-term creditmarket whose interest rates can be used as benchmarks for theseloans. If credit is priced improperly, it will be allocatedinefficiently and the development of capital markets may bestunted. In light of the generally disappointing experiencewith conventional methods of allocating development credit,some countries have introduced credit auctions as an alternative.Among the advantages are greater transparency and fairness,lower transaction costs, and increased competition and efficiency.Among the disadvantages are a greater vulnerability to collusion,which can lead to lower interest rates and revenue, and a tendencyto attract the least desirable participants (adverse selection)and to lend for riskier projects (moral hazard), which can leadto lower repayment rates and a higher probability of default.All these factors can lead to inefficiency in the allocationof funds. This article suggests ways to lessen these negativeeffects and presents various elements of auction design thataffect the efficiency of credit auctions and their suitabilityto specific circumstances. When properly designed, auctionscan be used in a variety of environments to allocate developmentcredit more efficiently than current methods do.      

A “matching auction” for targets with heterogeneous bidders

When potential bidders for a target firm are heterogeneous, standard auction methods for selling the firm are not optimal, as they treat the bidders symmetrically. In a two-bidder contest, one way to discriminate against the stronger bidder is to impose an order of moves. A simple “matching auction” can achieve this objective, in which the “strong” bidder is asked to make a first and final offer, and the other bidder is asked to match this bid. We consider two sources of bidder heterogeneity in a common-value setting: differences in initial toeholds, and asymmetric effects of the bidders' private signals on value. The matching auction results in a higher expected selling price than the standard auctions when the asymmetry is sufficiently large. Other properties of the matching auction are discussed.