Comparing apples and oranges: Some confusion about using and interpreting physical trade matrices versus multi-regional input–output analysis

The questions of how to account for upstream land requirements is highly relevant for assigning responsibility for global land use. Two approaches, physical trade flow analysis and multi-regional input–output analysis have been frequently used for land accounting of international trade leading to diametrically opposed results for countries such as China. In this study, we investigate and explain the differences by comparing the estimates of cropland embodied in international trade for China from studies using physical trade flows (PTF) and multi-regional input–output (MRIO) analysis and provide a step-wise calculation to explain the gap between estimates from these different approaches and their interpretation. Our results show that the gap between PTF and MRIO is largely due to the system boundary selection and truncation errors from the boundary cut-off. These two approaches should be used for different research purposes. If focusing on the flows of a particular product, in particular primary products such as rice, wheat or other grains, among countries the higher level of detail of physical flow model is more suited. Whereas when accounting for the total embodied land in trade and consumption-based land use by recipient countries to analyze drivers of land use, MRIO is more suitable for tracking entire global supply chains.     

The retention ability of the agricultural landscape in the emergency planning zone of the Temelín nuclear power plant and its changes since the 19th century

Drainage and loss of wetland sites is a major problem of the agricultural landscape, as it reduces the landscape’s ability to retain water, nutrients, matter, and minimize erosion. With this in mind, the issue of the ability of wet sites to retain radionuclides and contaminated water in the case of a radiation accident was studied. In 2013, field research examined the occurrence of wetland retention sites in the emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the Temelín nuclear power plant (NPP; Czech Republic). As data sources, wetland biotopes (European network Natura 2000) were considered; in addition, retention features were field mapped, i.e. landscape elements of a wetland nature not normally considered nationally significant for conservation. Within the emergency zone, 2854.7 ha of wetland biotopes were registered and 318.9 ha retention features mapped. Density of retention sites (in ha/km²) per cadastre (local administrative units) was used to represent their spatial distribution within the zone. For an assessment of possible revitalization measures, leading to an increase in the landscape’s retention ability, spatial changes in the area of retention sites between 2013 and the mid-19th century, a period before extensive drainage of landscape occurred and a simplification of its structure, were mapped. Historic land maps (The Imperial Obligatory Imprints of the Stable Cadastre) were used as a basis of information on the occurrence and area of fens and wet meadows (4771.5 ha).For spatial comparisons of drained and undrained landscape in the past and present, the density of retention sites per cadastre was calculated. In the mid-19th century, 80% of cadastres had a density of retention sites exceeded 5 ha/km²; in 2013 only 40% of cadastres achieved this. In the most part, drained areas of the zone belong to the central part (around the power plant), as well as the EPZ’s eastern and south-eastern regions. From the density maps of retention sites, as well as from the stable cadastre imprints, it is possible to identify areas and retention features suitable for wetland restoration, thus leading to an increase in the retention capacity of the landscape in terms of water and radionuclide retention. Suggestions as to how to restore and turn retention features into semi-natural wetlands, as well as integrating small wetlands into an agriculture landscape are outlined.     

The modification of North China quadrangles in response to rural social and economic changes in agricultural villages: 1970–2010s

In Chinese agricultural villages, housing provides multiple functions for rural households. With the transition of state policies and regional socio-economic development in China over the last 40 years, farmers have modified the layout and form of rural housing to adapt to the shifts in their livelihoods and lifestyles. Rural housing built by the remittances of migrant workers has produced negative externalities in densely populated agricultural regions, whilst in some villages, traditional housing has been demolished as part of settlement rationalization plans, with peasants relocated to apartment-style housing. These practices have been controversial and generated conflicts between peasants and local governments. Thus, rural housing has become a theoretical and practical problem in rural China that cannot be resolved with a “one-size-fits-all plan or policy”. Based on field surveys and interviews in three case villages, this paper examines how the form and layout of North China quadrangles (NCQs, or Huabei siheyuan), the four-sided folk housing built by people of the Han nationality in northern China, have been modified since the 1970s. We discuss the land use problems arising from the evolution of NCQs and options for solutions. We found that NCQs in agricultural villages have undergone several dramatic modifications: NCQs built during the collectivist agriculture era (1970s) were traditional in style but had reduced functions; NCQs built during the agriculture intensification era (1980s to mid-1990s) played an important role in agriculture production; and NCQs built in the cyclical migration era (mid-1990s to date) are typically modern and spacious. These modifications to the form of NCQs can be seen as adaptation and survival strategies of rural households in response to socio-economic transitions, their changing livelihoods, and changes in their needs over the course of their lives. Today, rural houses with varied qualities, abandoned houses, and empty plots of land coexist and intermingle together in rural settlements. To manage this chaotic situation, we suggest macro-level solutions with targeted measures to respect variations in farmers’ characteristics and interests and avoid impairing the diversity and adaptability of rural folk housing.     

Do land renting-in and its marketization increase labor input in agriculture? Evidence from rural China

There exist problems of land abandonment and low-efficiency land use when China is undergoing active rural-urban migration. Whether increasing land scale can attract more labor engaged in land use is important to increase land-use efficiency and relieve labor shortage in agriculture. This paper uses data from the 2015 China Household Finance Survey to assess the relationship between land renting-in and labor input in agriculture. The results show that land renting-in increases labor input in agriculture. With higher land rents and profit motives, more labor in lessees’ households will be engaged in agriculture. Further analysis indicates that there is no difference in labor input in agriculture between lessees transacting with acquaintances and those transacting with non-acquaintances for the increasing marketization of land rentals between acquaintances in today’s China. Our analysis implies that developing land rental markets and promoting the marketization of land rentals are important approaches to land use sustainability and relieving labor shortage in agriculture, which has great policy implications for countries with rapid rural-urban migration and abandoned arable land.     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

Impact of farm management diversity on the environmental and economic performance of the wheat–maize cropping system in the North China Plain

To assess the attainable greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential from crop production in China's most important grain production region, the North China Plain (NCP), single farm environmental and economic performances of 65 winter wheat–summer maize (WW–SM) producing households were determined. The results revealed a huge heterogeneity among farms, with up to five times higher environmental impact of worst compared to best performing farms. Astonishingly no trade-off between productivity and sustainability could be identified in the region, with high-yield farms emitting no different amounts of GHGs per hectare compared to low-yield farms. Building on cluster analysis, with farms grouped according to their economic and environmental performance into ‘poor’, ‘fair' and ‘good’ producers, the regional GHG mitigation potential was estimated. Under the scenario assumption that all grain in the NCP is produced under ‘good’ production conditions, 21% and 7% of GHG could be mitigated in wheat and maize production, respectively. The study shows that in the NCP, exemplary for China's rapidly developing agricultural sector, the crop management skills of a substantial share of farmers could obviously not keep pace with the massive input intensification. Among others, farmer–farmer trainings are recommended to close the gap in crop production performance among producers.     

Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization

The distinct urbanization process of China has attracted worldwide attention because of its impressive speed, massive scale, and policy intervention. However, the interrelationship between urban expansion and government policies is still not well understood. The Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration of China is the first national pioneering urbanization area since the implementation of the policy “Reform and Opening-up” in the late 1970s. Here we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization in two leading cities of the Pearl River Delta (i.e., Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial capital and the first Special Economic Zone of China, respectively) from 1975 to 2015, using Landsat data integrated with urban growth and landscape metrics analysis, and examined possible footprints of major economic and urbanization policies. Our results illustrated that urban land areas in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced magnificent annual growth rates at 8.1% and 11%, respectively between 1975 and 2015. On average, Shenzhen witnessed substantially higher urban growth rate than Guangzhou during the past four decades, particularly in the initial period (1978–1990) when the Reform and Opening-up policy was launched and Shenzhen was designated as the first Special Economic Zone in China in the late 1970s. However, the speed of urban expansion in Shenzhen became considerably lower than Guangzhou from 2005 to 2015, subject to physical conditions and a series of urban land use policies. Both cities showed a generally similar dynamics of urban growth forms with leapfrogging as the predominant type of urban growth at first and then edge-expansion while the contribution of infilling in Shenzhen was higher than that in Guangzhou, especially since 2005. The urbanization processes characterized by landscape and urban growth metrics revealed that a diffusion-coalescence-diffusion-coalescence process was identified for Guangzhou, while Shenzhen was generally consistent with the diffusion-coalescence urban growth hypothesis.     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

Power,capital, and the poverty of farmers’ land rights in China

This article is intended to conduct a three-dimensional examination of China’s rural land rights and the complex dynamic among political power, economic capital, and farmers’ rights during the past seventy years. First, the study takes a close look at the historical changes in the nature, scope, and ownership of land property in rural China during four significant time periods from 1949 to 2019. Second, it uses Ronald Coase’s theory on property rights in dissecting the four paradoxes and dilemmas in China’s rural land ownership, including the extent of clarity and stability of land property rights, the “three rights system” (the rights to ownership, contracting and operation of land) and three stagnations in defining and exercising such three rights, the simultaneous shortage and waste of land resources, as well as the restrictions on land transactions and the requirement to protect collective property. With examples derived from selected evidence, the article documents how both political power and economic capital have worked together to deprive farmers’ land rights. It concludes with a critical analysis of the current status of China’s rural economy, the problem of applying Western economic theories to China’s reality, as well as the theoretical definition, legal protection and policy parameters of land property rights in China.     

A century of change in coastal sedimentary landscapes in the Canary Islands (Spain) — Change,processes, and driving forces

A global understanding of landscape dynamics, through local case studies, is a prime topic in land change science. Consequently, this approach should be urgently applied to changing and heavily transformed environments, such as coastal areas. The aim of this work is to study landscape changes, comparatively, by focusing on three coastal sedimentary landscapes in the Canary Islands (Spain). We examine changes in main land cover types and identify their driving forces, actors and institutions, analyze their inter-relationships, and match each case to a case-specific development model. The three landscapes reveal very different change processes with regard to population density, land cover, and major land change processes (i.e., resource extraction, urbanization, tourism, and nature protection). We found that socioeconomic, political, and natural/spatial driving force types are of highest importance, while the local level is dominant in all three cases. The findings of this study can be used to interpret other similar landscapes worldwide. Driving-force and organizational-level patterns may be expressed in a synthesized manner as we demonstrate in this paper.     

Did China Hurt the Textiles and Clothing Exports of Other Asian Economies, 1990–2005?

Employing a gravity model, this article examines the impact of the rise of China's textile and clothing (T&C) sector on the exports of its Asian counterparts. It was established that China's textile exports posed a greater competitive threat than its clothing exports to the T&C exports of other Asian economies. It was also found that higher-income Asian economies fared better than their lower-income counterparts. This is because the higher-income Asian economies tended to be specialized in segments of the T&C sector less exposed to Chinese competition.     

Spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of farmland and rural settlements in Su–Xi–Chang region: Implications for building a new countryside in coastal China

This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of farmland and rural settlements from 1990 to 2006 in Su–Xi–Chang region of coastal China experienced dramatic economic and spatial restructuring, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2006, and socio-economic data from both research institutes and government departments. To examine the spatial patterns of farmland and rural settlements and their change over time, a set of pattern metrics that capture different dimensions of land fragmentation was identified. The outcomes indicated that, to a large extent, land-use change from 1990 to 2006 in Su–Xi–Chang region was characterized by a serious replacement of farmland with urban and rural settlements, construction land, and artificial ponds. Population growth, rapid industrialization and urbanization are the major driving forces of farmland change, and China's economic reforms played an important role in the transformation of rural settlements. China's “building a new countryside” is an epoch-making countryside planning policy. The focuses of building a new countryside in coastal China need to be concentrated on protecting the farmland, developing modern agriculture, and building “clean and tidy villages.” Rural construction land consolidation and cultivated land consolidation are two important ways to achieve the building objectives. The authors argue that it is fundamental to lay out a scientific urban–rural integrated development planning for building a new countryside, which needs to pay more attention to making the rural have certain functions serving for the urban. In addition, the cultural elements of idyll and the rural landscape need to be reserved and respected in the process of building a new countryside in coastal China, instead of building a new countryside, which looks more like a city.     

Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China

Farmers’ risk preferences play an important role in agricultural production decisions. This study characterizes risk preferences among farmers in Yongqiao and determines how these risk preferences are related to their choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. We find that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived changes to the local climate. The risk experiment result shows that the representative subject was risk averse, and women were more risk averse than men. The relationships between farmers’ risk preferences and different climate change adaptation choices were different. Farmers’ risk aversion was negatively and significantly related with adaptation strategies on planting new crop varieties and adopting new technology, but it had a significantly positive effect on purchasing weather index crop insurance. The results also indicate that the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income and perception of climate change impacts influence farmers’ adaptation decisions.     

Trade,Technology and the Demand for Skills in Tunisia, 1998–2002

Abstract

Although many developing countries have experienced an increase in the relative demand for skilled workers leading to a rise in wage inequality, the role played by trade in this trend remains a matter of debate. Using a firm-level database covering manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in Tunisia over the period 1998–2002, this paper investigates whether trade-induced technological change could explain the increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. The empirical analysis is based on the estimation of an employment-share equation. Controlling for potential endogeneity issues, the results confirm that trade-induced technology adoption was a channel through which openness to trade raised the relative demand for skilled workers in Tunisia. Unlike trade, however, foreign investment in Tunisia did not appear to increase the demand for skills.     

The elephant in the scheme: Planning for and around car parking in Melbourne, 1929–2016

A relatively recent body of literature has looked critically at the role of car parking in urban areas, showing that a significant determinant of the extent of parking space is the planning system. Of particular importance are statutory minimum off-street parking requirements for new developments. If parking and parking policies are significant to urban outcomes, one question that follows is − how active a role (if any) has strategic urban planning had in car parking? In this paper we ask if, and in what ways, car parking has been a stated strategic planning interest over the course of nearly a century of planning for one city − Melbourne, Australia. Our approach has three parts: a content analysis of strategic planning documents over time; a corresponding analysis of statutory policies on the ground; and reflection on what this means for the relationships between strategy and policy.We find that extensive car parking, treated as a public good, was once specifically planned as a critical component of facilitating a car-based city. We show that car parking has receded as a strategic policy issue over time, but that statutory minimum parking requirements introduced in the 1950s continue to be entrenched. Even with more recent strategic plans seeking to curtail car use and increase urban densities, minimum parking policies originally introduced to achieve the opposite effects have remained largely intact. We argue that parking has a significant role in urban form but is, in our case study city, illustrative of gaps between strategic and statutory planning, and between planning practice and research. Whereas post-war planning instigated policy approaches to car parking as a means of planning for car use, strategic planning in Melbourne now plans around parking − the elephant in the scheme. The findings have implications for other intensifying cities with a history of minimum parking policies; as well as for cities now undergoing rapid motorisation.     

Land-use change in the ‘edgelands’: Policies and pressures in London's rural–urban fringe

Green Belt policies have helped to create chaotic landscapes at the rural–urban interfaces of the United Kingdom's largest cities. Their prime functions, to control urban sprawl and preserve an encircling green girdle to separate the urban from the open countryside, have created ‘edgelands’ that have been remarkably dynamic despite relatively strong controls on certain types of development. A detailed case study of one part of London's Metropolitan Green Belt, drawing upon analysis of planning registers, reveals long-term trends in land-use change linked to the development controls operated within the context of the Green Belt and the adjacent built-up area. This paper also outlines the history of the Green Belt policy in the United Kingdom (UK) and discusses recently proposed policy changes that have provoked ongoing debate about this form of control on urban sprawl and its consequences for the land use of Green Belts and the edgelands.     

Organizing anarchy: The food security–biodiversity–climate crisis and the genesis of rural land use planning in the developing world

Shortfalls in global food production, coupled with the growing visibility of climate change's disruptive effects, have underlined for many observers the importance of devoting rural lands to their ‘optimal’ use, where they can make maximal contributions to the global imperatives of feeding the human population and maintaining vital environmental services. In this context observers have endorsed rural land use planning as a way to insure that, at least in theory, lands get devoted to their best uses. In practice, land use planning in the developing world has resembled ‘organized anarchy’. Small landholders with insecure land tenure, overseas investors seeking large land deals, NGOs representing indigenous peoples, government officials, and staff from international environmental NGOs and multilateral organizations have come together in strategic action fields to struggle over and sometimes negotiate land use plans for contested landscapes. These plans represent a strategic, spatially explicit response to the climate change–biodiversity–food security crisis.     

Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model*

The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. The object of the present paper is to show how the linear and non-linear programming models commonly used in modelling problems such as those arising in the Murray–Darling Basin may be adapted to incorporate a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. Estimates showing the potential value of improved water use are also derived.     

Urban development and expenditure efficiency in the 2000–2006 regional operational program of Sardinia

The Sardinian regional operational program 2007–2013 concerning the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) (2007–2013 ROP-ERDF) respects the rules of the ERDF on the investments for territorial cohesion since it promotes their regional geographic concentration. These investments are evenly shared between large- and medium-sized urban areas, and disadvantaged zones. This paper analyzes the investment policies implemented by the Sardinian Region through the 2000–2006 ERDF based part of the Regional Operational Program (2000–2006 ROP-ERDF), in order to assess their effectiveness, in terms of expense efficiency, for urban areas and disadvantaged zones. The assessment of the expenditure efficiency of the 2000–2006 ROP-ERDF is very important to address the policies of the 2007–2013 ROP-ERDF in terms of geographic concentration. The essay analyzes the results of the 2000–2006 ROP-ERDF, with reference to the expenditure efficiency of Sardinian cities, represented through a geographic information system, by means of a multinomial logit model.