A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

We examine the relationship between exchange‐rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994–1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange‐rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange‐rate exposure benefit from a depreciation of the Dutch guilder relative to a trade‐weighted currency index. This result confirms that firms in open economies, such as the Netherlands, exhibit significant exchange‐rate exposure. We collect unique information on the most relevant individual currencies for each firm with respect to their influence on firm value. Our results indicate that the use of a trade‐weighted currency index and the use of individual exchange rates are complements. We also measure the determinants of exchange‐rate exposure. As expected, we find that firm size and the foreign sales ratio are significantly and positively related to exchange‐rate exposure. In contrast with our hypothesis, off‐balance hedging using derivatives has no significant effects. Finally, in line with theory, we find that exposure is significantly reduced through on‐balance sheet hedging, i.e., through foreign loans and by producing in factories abroad.     

UK Multinationals' Effective Use of Financial Currency‐Hedge Techniques: Estimating and Explaining Foreign Exchange Exposure Using Bilateral Exchange Rates

Using a unique dataset of recently available accounting disclosures, this study examines the relationship between UK multinationals' stock returns and changes in the principal exchange rate to which each firm is most exposed. We find more firms with significant foreign exchange exposure estimates using this firm‐specific principal currency data, compared with those exposure estimates using the broad exchange rate index data prevalent in prior studies. The cross‐sectional variations in such principal‐currency exposure estimates are explained in relation to the financial currency‐hedge techniques that each firm specifically identifies as being used to manage its currency risk. In particular, we provide evidence that firms effectively use foreign currency derivatives and foreign‐denominated debt to reduce the currency risk associated with the bilateral exchange rate to which they are most exposed. This study is important to both the academic and the practitioner communities because it represents the first use of publicly available UK disclosures to improve the estimation and explanation of foreign exchange exposure.     

外币报表折算方法选择的多维视角分析——从SFAS 8到SFAS 52转变的思考

外币报表折算方法的选择是争论较多的一个会计难题,从SFAS 8到SFAS 52的转变出发,从汇率理论到会计理论和决策理论进行多视角的分析,可以发现时态法和现时汇率法各自的理论上的优点和缺陷。立足现实的角度,我国的外币报表折算方法应采取更为灵活的策略。     

Predictability in international stock returns using currency fluctuations and forward rate forecasts

We find that currency risk, specifically dollar exchange rate risk, is a determinant in firm stock returns worldwide. Firms exposed to various dollar exchange rate risks worldwide exhibit strong differences in expected returns, and firms with previously high sensitivity to their home country’s exchange rate fluctuation subsequently outperform during the following six to twelve months. This effect is robust across countries, time, exchange rate policies, and macroeconomic environments. We find that information in currency forward rates provides additional, useful information when predicting future returns of these currency-sensitive firms, and dynamic, state-space estimation of currency forward rate term structures complements the predictability.     

International acquisitions in the united states: Evidence from returns to foreign bidders

This paper provides evidence on the minimally explored topic of abnormal returns earned by stockholders of foreign bidders seeking to acquire a target firm in the USA. Four sources of influence on abnormal returns are identified: changes in net wealth of the bidder associated with changes in exchange rates; possible value-destroying managerial discretionary behavior by bidders with excess cash flows, as suggested by Jensen; comparative advantages for foreign bidders domiciled in relatively favorable tax jurisdictions; ownership status of the target, i.e. whether the target is an entire firm and whether it involves divested assets. The study includes 77 firms from 10 countries. The results show that stockholders of foreign bidders earn significant, negative abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of an acquisition in the USA. These abnormal returns become increasingly negative over the 15 days after the announcement of the acquisition, indicating that more information about the acquisition is revealed to investors subsequent to the initial announcement. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that relative exchange rates and cash positions explain variation in abnormal returns. A decline in the value of the dollar increases abnormal returns for the foreign bidder, thus supporting the net wealth hypothesis. The results also show that cash-rich foreign firms tend to enjoy higher abnormal returns when making acquisitions in the USA. The result provides support for the Froot and Stein cash-constrained hypothesis rather than for Jensen's free-cash-flow theory.     

Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure: Risk Reduction from Transaction and Translation Hedging

Using a sample of Swedish firms we investigate the risk reducing effect of foreign exchange exposure hedging. Further, we investigate risk reduction from using different hedging instruments, and particular interest is directed towards the impact of transaction exposure hedges and translation exposure hedges respectively. We find that firms' foreign exchange exposure is increasing with the level of inherent exposure, measured as the difference between revenues and costs denominated in foreign currency, and that it is decreasing with firm size. We find a significant reduction in foreign exchange exposure from the use of financial hedges. The evidence suggests that the usage of foreign denominated debt as well as currency derivatives reduce firms' foreign exchange exposure. Further, we find that transaction exposure hedges significantly reduce exposure, and that translation exposure hedges also reduce exposure. A possible explanation for the latter is that translation exposure approximates the exposed value of future cash flows from operations in foreign subsidiaries (i.e. economic exposure). If so, by hedging translation exposure, economic exposure is reduced.     

Inflation,Translation and Conflicts in Statements of Financial Accounting Standards*

This paper utilizes the concept of aggregative consistency defined in Rubinstein and Fishburn [1986], and the FASB's concept of representational faithfulness to evaluate foreign currency translation and accounting for changing prices as embodied in SFAS 70. The paper shows that SFAS 70 produces measurement errors and creates a foreign currency translation adjustment which does not reflect the effects of exchange rate changes. The conditions defined in the paper also facilitate an evaluation of the relative merits of restate/translate and translate/restate. Restate/translate can conceivably be used if there is no consolidation. In the more usual case where consolidation is required, translate/restate using the relevant shareholders' consumption index will yield aggregatively consistent values under fewer restrictive conditions.     

Translation Exposure Hedging Post SFAS No. 52

Translation exposure hedging is frequently said to have begun after firms adopted SFAS No. 8 and assumed to have ceased–or at least decreased–after adoption of SFAS No. 52 due to different treatments of translation gains (losses). Based on proprietary data, this study presents evidence from a small sample of firms which would be predicted to cease hedging translation exposure, but of which the majority did not.
The study focuses on eighteen firms which exclude at least 50% and up to 100% of the translation gains (losses) from the income statement after adopting SFAS No. 52. Of those eighteen firms, only seven ceased hedging. The other eleven firms not only continued hedging translation exposure, but hedged translation exposure of only those subsidiaries whose translation gains (losses) are now excluded from the income statement.
Characteristics which might explain the different decision are investigated: proportion of assets which are nonmonetary; the proportion of net assets located abroad; the geographic dispersion of subsidiaries; and the estimated effect on the balance sheet and income statement of changing from the temporal method to the current rate method of translation.
Univariate test results indicate that the geographic dispersion of die foreign subsidiaries as well as the proportion of net assets located abroad differ significantly between firms which ceased hedging and those which continued hedging after adopting the standard. Weak evidence of differential effects of the change to the current rate method on individual firm income statements and of different composition of assets between the two groups also was found. Multivariate analysis, using a linear probability model as well as a randomization procedure, provided weak results corroborating the significance of the proportion of net foreign assets to consolidated assets in differentiating between firms which ceased hedging and those which continued.     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

The Effect of Aggregation of Accounting Information via Segment Reporting on Accounting Conservatism

In a sample of U.S. multiple-segment firms, we document a negative association between aggregation via segment reporting and timely loss recognition. A higher level of aggregation, as reflected in a firm’s reported organizational structure (the definition and characteristics of its segments), causes a multiple-segment firm to exhibit less cross-segment variation in profitability than a matched control portfolio of single-segment firms. We find that firms that engage in more aggregation report accounting numbers that provide less timely information about economic losses. We also observe that firms that provide more disaggregated segment data subsequent to adopting SFAS 131 experienced an increase in timely loss recognition. This result implies that higher quality segment reporting leads to an increase in timely loss recognition, which, per extant research, is associated with better governance. Our results complement results in Berger and Hann [2003. The impact of SFAS No. 131 on information and monitoring. Journal of Accounting Research, 41, 163–223] that show a decline in inefficient internal-capital-market transfers subsequent to the adoption of SFAS 131. Overall, we provide evidence supporting Beyer, Cohen, Lys, and Walther’s [2010. The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50, 296–343] contention that accounting conservatism is, in part, a function of managers’ aggregation choices.     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Did China diversify its foreign reserves?

This paper takes a novel approach to detect the latent currency portfolio of Chinese foreign exchange reserves and the underlying portfolio management strategies during 2000 and 2007. Based on a portfolio accounting identity and the budget constraint of the Chinese central bank's holding of foreign assets, the monthly growth rate of reserves can be decomposed into monthly rate of return, valuation effects of exchange rates, and monthly net purchase rate. The valuation effect reveals the value share of each currency. Bayesian inference is adopted to estimate the state‐space model with a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The results show that China significantly and dramatically diversified its reserves out of the US dollar in 2002: both the euro's value and quantity shares increased from 5% to more than 20%. By the end of 2007, China held about (at most) 67.3% of its reserves in the US dollar, 22% in the euro, 2.5% in the Japanese yen, 4.7% in the Australian dollar, and 3.5% in the British pound. The average annual rate of return was about 3%. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymmetric Foreign Currency Exposures and Derivatives Use: Evidence from France

This paper provides evidence on the asymmetric sensitivity of stock returns of French firms to exchange rate risk and the effect of foreign currency (FC) derivative use in alleviating this risk. The results show that FC exposure is frequently asymmetric and differs with respect to the US dollar (USD) and non‐USD currencies. Cross sectional analysis provides evidence that FC derivatives use has a significant effect on reducing FC exposure to appreciations and depreciations of non‐USD currencies and depreciations of the USD, but not to appreciations of the USD.     

How Comprehensive is Comprehensive Income? The Value Relevance of Foreign Currency Translation Adjustments

Prior empirical research has been unable to forge an unambiguous link between foreign currency translation adjustments, which are an element of “other items of comprehensive income,” and firm valuation. This study adds to the existing literature by empirically testing the value relevance of foreign currency translation adjustments in an earnings and book value model. Interaction terms, which serve as proxies for the theoretical sources of exchange rate exposure, are included in the estimating equation. The main finding of this study is that foreign currency translation adjustments are significantly value relevant when their parameter estimates are allowed to vary in the cross‐section.     

人民币汇率变动研究——基于人民币对美元和非美元货币汇率的分析

目前随着美元币值的变化,人民币对美元小幅贬值或升值,但人民币对非美元货币的贬值或升值则往往相反,这种变化使得我们对人民币币值的变化难以把握.本文研究人民币对美元和非美元汇率变动,并在此基础上研究人民币有效汇率指数变化;根据人民币有效汇率指数,构建人民币核心汇率指数并分析其变动及意义.本文认为,人民币汇率目标主要侧重于人民币对美元汇率,而人民币对非美元货币汇率波动有更大的弹性,因此,如果央行以人民币有效汇率为目标,则能够确定每天人民币对美元汇率的中间价,真正建立人民币参考一篮子货币的汇率目标.     

A deterministic analysis of change in international unit labor costs: Import implications for US industry

United States industry faces an import threat in the domestic market because foreign exporters achieve lower growth in their unit labor dollar cost. A deterministic analysis of the sources of change over the decade 1974–84 shows that although most foreign trade partners experienced a higher rate of growth in hourly labor compensation than the United States, they discounted this cost disadvantage by achieving more than offsetting cost reductions from growth in labor productivity and in the foreign currency to US dollar exchange rate.     

Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information

This study investigates whether or not new information affects the predictive capability of forward and spot foreign exchange rates symmetrically during periods of rising as opposed to falling currency values. Statistically significant different intercept and slope coefficients are found between the periods of U.S. dollar appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation. Further, the predictive ability of the two models differs between opposite trends in foreign exchange values.     

基于利率平价理论视角研究人民币汇率问题

贸易顺差会导致汇率升值,这是许多人从西方经济学理论中得到的认识。随着我国的外贸连年顺差、外汇储备不断扩大,大量的外贸顺差和外汇储备使得外汇市场上人民币升值压力很大,人民币汇率成为全球瞩目的焦点。近年来西方政界与学术界屡屡以中国贸易顺差为由要挟人民币升值。而实际是欧美人以所谓的"全球经济再平衡"为幌子想要中国通过让人民币进一步升值来为金融危机买更多单。然而人民币是否真正存在升值压力,我们通过实际测算一下来得出结论。本文依据利率平价理论,构造出一种估计货币汇率升值或贬值压力的方法,并运用升值压力指标对人民币对美元汇率变动进行了检验,得出人民币对美元确实存在升值压力。     

The Value Relevance of Accounting Information during a Financial Crisis: Thailand and the 1997 Decline in the Value of the Baht

This study addresses whether the financial turmoil surrounding the devaluation of the baht affected the value relevance of Thai accounting information. Our results suggest a decline in the value relevance of Thai book values and earnings following the devaluation. Prior to mid 1997 the Bank of Thailand pegged the value of the baht to a basket of currencies of which 80% was weighted to the US dollar. In response to pressure by currency speculators the bank abandoned its peg on July 2 1997 in favor of a managed float. The devaluation was followed by volatile exchange rates. The change in value relevance of accounting information after the devaluation may be attributable to the initial recognition of foreign exchange losses and the subsequent recognition of foreign exchange gains as exchange rates fell and then recovered.