Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: The example of China–US trade friction

The new age of trade wars could simultaneously affect the worldwide distribution pattern of the economy and environmental emissions. However, previous studies have focused on economic impacts, and on trade liberalization, while little is known about the equilibrium effects of trade barriers on the environment. Using a global computable general equilibrium model and taking the recent anti-trade policies of the Trump administration as an example, this study investigates the possible socio-economic and environmental effects of trade friction. Specifically, this study explores how the implemented six rounds of China–US trade friction and its different long-term development trends affect regional economic output, GHG and air pollutant emissions. Results show that trade barriers harm both countries’ economies and such losses have a certain permanence, while non-participants can benefit indirectly. Trade friction decreases participants’ GHG emissions, modifies global GHG emission distribution patterns, and leads to improved air quality in most countries. If governments continue to impose tariffs, global GHG emissions could counterfactually decrease by up to 5%. However, the change in trade patterns is not conducive to clean energy development in the less-developed regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and emission reductions from trade friction are insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change.     

Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses

In this work we develop aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and buses. Greece was selected as a case study, being a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002. Percent adults in the population, per capita gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, car occupancy and bus kilometers were predictors included in the car ownership and bus fleet multiple regression models. A shift in the overall trend of both models around 1995 was explained as a slope change of per capita gross domestic product, possibly reflecting the impact of a boom of the Greek Stock Market along with a retirement program for older vehicles. Predictor variables were forecast via Box-Jenkins and the models were subsequently used to develop car ownership and bus fleet forecasts to the year 2010. We predict that the contribution of cars to total CO₂ emissions will rise to an astounding 95% of total CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport (excluding taxis and mopeds), an effect expected in other Mediterranean and Eastern European countries with socioeconomic characteristics similar to Greece. Suggestions for further research include developing regional car ownership forecasts in order to compare the dynamics of different regions within a country and looking into other land transportation means (such as mopeds, taxicabs and railway).     

中国经济增长与环境污染关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的面板数据分析模型,并考虑了人口密度、环保政策、贸易开放度、技术进步、产业结构在内的其他因素对SO2排放量的影响,选取全国30个省、自治区、直辖市2004—2011年这8年的面板数据,对我国经济增长与环境污染指标SO2排放量之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,与倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线不同,我国人均GDP与人均SO2排放量存在倒N型关系。并结合控制变量对环境作用的正负效应提出了有助于降低SO2排放量、改善环境质量的针对性的政策建议。     

Global impacts of the Kyoto agreement: results from the MS-MRT model

This paper analyzes the economic impacts on different regions of the world of a global agreement to limit carbon emissions. A multi-sector, multi-region trade model (MS-MRT) is developed that focuses on the international trade aspects of climate change policy. These include the distribution of impacts on economic welfare, international trade and investment across regions, the spillover effects of carbon emission limits in Annex 1 countries on non-Annex 1 countries, carbon leakage, changes in terms of trade and industry output, and the effects of international emissions trading. Our central estimates are presented with a set of sensitivity tests to assess the extent to which our conclusions depend on elasticity and baseline assumptions. A technical appendix presents algebraic details of the model structure and calibration.     

Forecasting material and economic flows in the global production chain for silicon

Material and economic flows in a global production chain are analyzed in order to identify shifts in economic structure relevant to environmental issues. Results suggest that the economic and environmental weight of high-tech manufacturing and specialized material sectors will increase significantly relative to extractive and primary commodity sectors, perhaps reaching a similar environmental scale within a few decades. Though further study is needed, the forecasts suggest that a reprioritization of analysis and policy to address these new industries is in order. These results are based on a case study of the global production chain for high-purity silicon and its use in semiconductors, solar cells and optical fiber from primary materials. Forecasts for future material/economic flows are carried out based on the identification of time scales that reveal stable long-term trends. Assuming constant growth over 7–10 year averages reproduces thirty years of historical growth of three global sectors to around 1–2% accuracy. This suggests the constant growth model can be used to forecast with a relatively high degree of confidence.     

EQUITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF POSSIBLE CO2 TREATY PROPOSALS

The Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbon control established an important precedent for global environmental treaties that include both developing countries and industrial countries. This paper evaluates seven possible treaty proposals to control carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Growth-rate control proposals fail on effectiveness of control or on equity differences between developing countries and industrial countries. Complex proposals link policies in population growth, economic development, world energy taxation, and forestation. These complex proposals, which appear to be both effective and equitable, can defer or avoid CO2 doubling.     

Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis

Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO₂ concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with – and consistently with – macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries.     

我国省域CO2排放量的动态演进分析——兼论与环境规制和造林活动之间的关系

基于我国30个省份2003-2011年的CO2排放量数据,利用面板数据的向量自回归方法和脉冲响应方法分析碳排放量与环境规制和造林活动之间的关系。结果表明：30个省份CO2的平均排放量以10．7％的速度逐年上升;不同省份CO2排放量之间的差距不断拉大;环境规制对各省CO2排放量的影响呈现先增后减的趋势;造林活动前期减排作用不明显,但减排效果具有长期性。     

Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from oil and GDP, using panel data from 1971 to 2007 of 98 countries. Previous studies have discussed the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, but little attention has been paid to the existence of a nonlinear relationship between these two variables. We argue that there exists a threshold effect between the two variables: different levels of economic growth bear different impacts on oil CO2 emissions. Our empirical results do not support the EKC hypothesis. Additionally, the results of short-term analyses of static and dynamic panel threshold estimations suggest the efficacy of a double-threshold (three-regime) model. In the low economic growth regime, economic growth negatively affects oil CO2 emissions growth; in the medium economic growth regime, however, economic growth positively impacts oil CO2 emissions growth; and in the high economic growth regime, the impact of economic growth is insignificant.     

Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives

Up to date, collective efforts in greenhouse gas mitigation made by the international community have been rather ineffective. A major reason of the unsuccessfulness may be attributed to imprecise comprehension on the sources of greenhouse gas pollution and their changing dynamics. Utilizing the LMDI decomposition method, this paper investigates the time- and spatial-dynamics of drivers governing global carbon emissions. We decompose and quantify the effects of different drivers, that is, population, affluence, energy intensity and carbon intensity, across time on global carbon emissions. Next based on country-level decomposition, we also calculate and track the spatial gravity centers of the effects of the drivers. Our results show that energy intensity effect is the leading contributor for carbon emission mitigation, whereas economic development, carbon emission intensity and population serve as factors accelerating carbon emissions. We also find significant heterogeneities in the spatial dynamics of the contribution of different drivers, implying that differentiated climate change policies should be made at different countries to effectively curb global carbon emissions.     

发达国家低碳政策对我国经济发展的启示

全球气候变化正吸引着越来越多的国家和地区关注环境问题.从整体来看,发达国家在发展低碳经济方面启动更早,政策工具多样,值得发展中国家深入研究和借鉴.当前我国低碳经济正处于探索阶段,尚面临许多障碍与困难,为顺应国际发展潮流,实现我国经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,在借鉴发达国家低碳经济发展经验的基础上,为我国低碳经济发展提供一些政策启示是十分必要的.     

Forecasting demand for electricity in Maryland: An econometric approach

Most of the models for forecasting demand for energy are based on simple extrapolations of past trends or on a simple regression equation with price of the energy and the stock of appliances as explanatory variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to “higher order conditional interval forecasts”. The residential demand for electricity is a function of its price, price of its substitute, per capita income and a lagged demand variable for dynamic adjustment of actual demand to equilibrium demand for electricity. The forecasts of residential demand to 1990 are based on projections of exogenous variables such as residential price of electricity, per capita income and the estimated long run elasticity of demand (Section III). The nonresidential demand for electricity is a function of employment in that sector, sectoral prices of electricity and the lagged sectoral demand. The forecasts of nonresidential electricity demand are also based on projections of its independent variables (Section IV). The last section converts the total demand for electricity into the required generating capacities and juxtaposes them against the estimates of expected supplies available from the forecasts of the utilities. The paper concludes that the eighties will be faced with excess supply of electricity in Maryland, in case the assumptions of projections of independent variables hold good. The misallocation of resources inherent in such excess supplies could be avoided if realistic scenerios of future demand, as attempted in this paper, could be predicted.     

Regional double dividend from environmental tax reform: An application for the Italian economy

The greenhouse effect forces national Governments to design environmental tax policies for facing not only global warming but also the negative economic consequences resulting from the reduction of emissions such as a negative change of GDP. This paper aims at verifying the impact of an environmental fiscal reform able to attain both the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the regional double dividend. We have decided to follow the computable general equilibrium approach for modelling the multisectoral income circular flow in the case of a bi-regional economy as described by a Social Accounting Matrix we have built for this purpose. The tools of analysis we chose represent suitable and consistent instruments in order to quantify the effects of an environmental tax reform. They can in fact highlight the possible differences in responses between macro regions in terms of regional GDP changes, regional prices and regional employment rate. In fact, the extended multi-sectoral framework, on which the model is developed, represents economic activities, imperfect labour market and institutional sectors behaviours in each macro region. The simulations performed concern the introduction of a progressive and proportional green tax on each type of commodity according to the corresponding level of CO₂ emissions. Furthermore all simulations introduce a recycling scheme of green tax revenues, whose aim is reducing both the income tax and the regional tax on activities (IRAP). The application is done on a bi-regional Social Accounting Matrix for Italy for the year 2003.     

TAKING THE ENVIRONMENT INTO ACCOUNT: THE NAMEA APPROACH

The National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) shows environmental burdens that are consistent with the economic figures in the national accounts. In the NAMEA, the existing national accounts matrix has been extended with accounts in physical units. On the basis of the expected contribution of each polluting substance to a particular environmental problem, emissions are converted to theme equivalents. This results in six summary environmental indicators that are directly comparable to the conventional economic aggregates. In addition, this meso-level information system can be used as the core data framework for integrated analyses and forecasts of economic and environmental changes.     

中国环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性分析

基于1997—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,将环境规制分成命令型、市场型和自愿型三类,以核密度估计分析碳排放分布的动态变化,采用空间杜宾模型探究了不同环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性。结果表明:1997—2017年中国三种环境规制与碳排放量变化表现同步增长,碳排放区域差异明显,命令型环境规制占据主体,市场型环境规制波动性变化特征明显,自愿型环境规制稳步增长;碳排放和环境规制具有明显的空间自相关特征,并且环境规制对邻近地区碳排放减少或增长的影响能力增强;三种环境规制对碳排放的影响均存在空间溢出,相比较而言,市场型环境规制的正向溢出效应最为明显,不同环境规制影响的区域差异特征表现为:命令型环境规制"东部>中部>西部",市场型环境规制"东部>西部>中部",自愿型环境规制"西部>东部>中部"。     

Global resilience to climate change: Examining global economic and environmental performance resulting from a global carbon dioxide market

In this study, we investigated global economic and environmental resilience in the presence of climate change. In particular, we examine the possibility of mitigating carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions without stressing standards of living. Here, we set up a cross-country CO₂ market constrained by a quota, where CO₂ is optimally re-allocated based on relative shadow prices of the pollutant. The objective is to stabilize global emissions without hindering global incomes and in the process achieve a single CO₂ price. We introduce a re-allocation model that takes into account each country’s underlying polluting technology. The model solutions are then used to investigate whether a single, global price for CO₂ is attainable. Our results suggest that global CO₂ emissions could stabilize without stressing global incomes, with a global CO₂ market achieving equilibrium. With a CO₂ market, countries would then have the incentive to consider adopting, improving, or investing in additional abatement technologies to move beyond current capabilities, while continuing to increase standards of living.     

中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素

中国南北方地区发展不平衡问题凸显,人口南北空间分异现象引起了广泛关注。文章以1982—2020年5期人口普查数据为基础,采用泰尔指数、地理探测器等方法,探究中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内"南密北疏"的人口分布格局基本稳定,南方地区一直保持着人口规模和密度优势。(2)研究区人口分布的总体差异不断拉大,南北方地区内部差异的贡献占主导地位,其中南方地区内部差异比北方地区小,但上升幅度较大。(3)研究区人口具有向南迁移扩散的趋势,且人口密度变化的区域差异持续扩大,少部分区域人口快速增长,人口密度优势显著。(4)人口空间分异是自然环境和经济社会因素共同作用的结果,经济发展水平、创新能力和吸纳就业能力等是人口密度变化的主要因素,其中创新能力的影响作用不断增强。