新经济与货币政策

在人类步入新世纪的今天，经济的发展方式发生了根本的变化．网络的产业化应用不仅改变了人们的生活方式．也改变了经济增长的要素结构．本文重在探求新经济中货币政策是否还象过去几十年中经济学家解释的那么有效．进而探询如何运用货币政策能起到应有的效果，而不是与预期相反的结果。并从美国的经验中探寻中国货币政策改革的方向。     

由美国新经济反思我国的货币政策

一、美国新经济概念及新经济危机解析 1．美国新经济概念分析。 新经济一词是从美国泊来的,没有非常明确的定义,但又实实在在地在美国出现,而且迅速席卷世界。归纳起来其特性可概括为：以数字化信息技术和因特网为标志的技术变革在全球化拓展;知识创新的商业模式——建立在个人信誉基础上的风险投资制度已经成熟,被投资者所认可;互联网的普及速度超过了以往过去的任何发明,它以其开发性、可扩展性和互动性,迅速成为了客户需求的新平台,成为了一个新标准;服务业替代制造业主宰产业发展;全球化的各种规则开始建立,降低了要素流动的摩擦;资本市场是这一创新时代的最重要的引擎,是结构调整最有效的工具,而工业社会中集中控制资源进行结构调整的方式已经过时;在新经济中,公司正在走上收益递增的轨道。这些新经济的趋势性特征涉及到技术、商业模式、客户标准、产业、规则和金融工具,它们综合贡献给了经济增长,构成经济增长的新要素,这些新要素正在改变着经济增长的周期性波动,从而构成了所谓的“新经济”。     

90年代美国财政货币政策及其借鉴意义

尽管全球经济疲软,美国还是在1990—1991年的经济衰退后连续第9个年头保持经济增长,并且强劲的经济增长是与低通货膨胀、低失业率、低财政赤字并存的.美国经济之所以能长时间扩展,除了有利的国际环境外,最主要的原因是90年代以来美国实行了适宜的财政货币政策.分析美国90年代财政货币政策的内容及特点,对于完善我国的宏观经济调控具有重要的借鉴意义.     

透视美国新经济

９０年代以后,尤其是在近几年在全球经济知识化的浪潮下美国经济出现了某些完全不同于战后那些典型的经济周期的东西,主要表现为经济增长时间创下了新纪录,而且增长势头远比人们预计的要强劲。更为引人注目的是,尽管劳工市场处于３０年来最紧张的时期,但通货膨胀的压力仍得到控制。对这种特殊经济现象,虽然经济学界各派有着不同的命名,如“信息经济”、“虚拟经济”、“网络经济”甚至“风险社会”等,但人们大多以“新经济”这一概念来涵盖所有的内容。一般说来,新经济是指以数码知识、网络信息技术为基础,以创新为核心,由新科技…     

美国政府在新经济中的作用及其启示

近年,美国出现一种被经济学家称为“新经济”的经济现象,引人注目。形成新经济的原因何在,成为各国政府及经济科学家关心的问题。本文从美国政府在“新经济”形式与发展中作用角度谈起,并最后总结其对中国的启示。 美国“新经济”的基本情况 自1991年3月起,美国经济出现持续稳定增长,成为自1854年以来美国经济史上32个周期中最长的一次。在这次持续扩张中,出现了与传统经济学相悖的现象,许多宏观经济指标已突破了基于过去50年历史模式的原有经济规律。对此,许多经济学家称之为“新经济”。 美国联邦储备委员会主席格林斯潘在最近曾…     

美国经济周期波动与货币政策

本文首先考察了战后美国经济周期波动和货币政策的演变历史,并利用HP滤波法分离出20世纪60年代以来美国GDP和广义货币供应量的波动成分,通过对比分析发现,在更多的时候,反周期的货币政策反而成为经济波动的触发因素之一。因此,在利用货币政策熨平经济周期性波动的同时要注意处理好短期和长期的关系,特别是要避免因调控产生新的市场扭曲,从而引发新一轮的经济波动。     

货币政策与财政政策的“新共识”

20世纪90年代以来,宏观经济政策领域出现了一种"新共识",近年来得到进一步发展。在"新共识"宏观经济模型中,货币存量不起作用,但货币政策被赋予非常重要的作用,货币政策可以决定通货膨胀;货币政策采用盯住通货膨胀的方式,通过调节利率将通货膨胀控制在一个较低的水平。财政政策在管理总需求水平方面仍然是一个强有力的工具,"新共识"宏观经济学体现了"货币主义与财政主义的综合"。     

美国政府在市场经济中的独特作用

美国市场经济中政府的作用是独特的,它首先表现在通过制定一系列的法律来保障市场的竞争性;其次通过适度的经济干预政策把政府的作用限定在特定的范围;再次政府作为最大的消费者构建了刺激经济和调整产业的结构主体。之后分析了我国政府在市场经济中的作用。     

财政货币政策配合与农业可持续发展

农业可持续发展是国民经济可持续发展的重要组成部分。要实现农业的可持续发展其根本途径在于实现农业经济增长方式的转变。财政货币政策要促进农业经济增长方式的转变,实现农业可持续发展,必须完善财政金融与农业运行机制,建立财政金融与农业发展的良性循环关系。论文旨在研究农业经济增长方式与农业可持续发展的关系,农业可持续发展中的财政货币政策配合模式及财政货币政策的配合运用     

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Domestic fiscal and monetary policy settings can influence the strength of the Australia dollar in a number of different ways.     

我国财政货币政策的调整与制度安排

为启动内需 ,我国于 1998年实施了积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策 ,随着时间的推移 ,需要对其进行调整。调整的取向是向适度的财政政策和稳健的货币政策转变 ;调控方向应由基础建设投资向产业结构调整转变。加强财政货币政策协调运行的制度建设 ,提高货币政策的传导效率和财政政策的运行效率。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

Abstract. This paper studies the design and effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area. To do so, a stylized two‐region model of monetary and fiscal policy rules in the EMU is built. We analyse how monetary and fiscal rules affect the adjustment dynamics in the model. Both the effects on the individual countries and on the EMU aggregate economy are studied. Three aspects play an important role in the analysis: (i) the consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policy rules, (ii) the consequences of asymmetries between EMU countries (asymmetries in macroeconomic shocks and macroeconomic structures), and (iii) the role of alternative degrees of backward‐ and forward‐looking behaviour in consumer decisions and inflation expectations.     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.