我国物流业发展对经济增长作用的实证分析

通过建立回归模型来确定物流业发展与经济增长之间的数量关系,运用Granger因果关系检验法检验两者之间的因果关系,定量分析两者相互作用的方向,结果表明我国物流业与经济增长互为因果关系,测定了物流业对经济增长的贡献,并提出了促进物流业发展的若干政策建议。     

城市化进程与服务业发展对经济拉动作用的实证分析

文章通过对计量模型的分析,使用1983～2009年城市化、服务业综合发展以及人均GDP等的数据,运用Johansen协整、Granger因果检验,脉冲响应函数等计量方法对三个指标之间的关系进行实证检验。实证结果表明服务业发展和经济增长之间相互促进,经济增长带动城市化水平提高,但城市化水平对经济增长作用不明显,并进一步分析了在长期过程中经济增长对城市化水平、服务业发展的冲击响应。最后针对我国现状,提出相应的政策建议。     

A Better Understanding of Granger Causality Analysis: A Big Data Environment

This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the causal structure in a multivariate time series by introducing several statistical procedures for testing indirect and spurious causal effects. In practice, detecting these effects is a complicated task, since the auxiliary variables that transmit/induce indirect/spurious causality are very often unknown. The availability of hundreds of economic variables makes this task even more difficult since it is generally infeasible to find the appropriate auxiliary variables among all the available ones. In addition, including hundreds of variables and their lags in a regression equation is technically difficult. The paper proposes several statistical procedures to test for the presence of indirect/spurious causality based on big data analysis. Furthermore, it suggests an identification procedure to find the variables that transmit/induce the indirect/spurious causality. Finally, it provides an empirical application where 135 economic variables were used to study a possible indirect causality from money/credit to income.     

浙江省区域物流与经济增长的实证研究

基于浙江省1990~2012年统计数据,运用ADL模型及格兰杰因果检验对浙江省区域物流与经济增长的相互关系进行了研究。结果表明:从长期来看,浙江省GDP、全社会货物周转量及港口货物吞吐量三者之间存在着单向的因果关系。港口货物吞吐量是全社会货物周转量增加的格兰杰原因,全社会货物周转量和港口货物吞吐量平均每增长1%,分别带动浙江省GDP增长0.8672%和0.9903%。     

四川省物流业和三个产业间发展关系计量分析

物流业的发展对地区经济增长的重要性已得到广泛认同。根据协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法,对四川省1985~2006年经济增长和物流发展水平、三个产业产值的年度经济数据对四川省经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：四者之间存在长期的稳定关系,即四川省物流发展水平和三个产业之间存在长期的稳定关系,对经济发展起着非常重要的作用。     

Causality and the independence phenomenon: The case of the demand for money

We examine the demand for money using causality results with data from two alternative policy regimes. For Spanish series of money and prices we obtain the same result of independence that Feige and others found with U.S. data. The result of the test for the German hyperinflation period reveals bidirectional causality. It is shown that the somehow striking results of widespread independence among economic time series do not disprove but rather confirm the existence of a true underlying causal relationship. Causality results, and independence in particular, give us testable restriction for the structural form. In the case of models for expectations in the rate of inflation, these restrictions allow us to revalidate the stability of the demand for money as postulated by the Quantity Theory.     

中国汽车工业中技术转移对技术进步影响的实证分析

本文对我国汽车工业1997到2008年时间序列数据,应用Engle—Granger协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,就技术转移对技术进步的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,在我国的汽车工业中,技术转移与技术进步存在长期稳定关系,技术转移并没有促进技术进步,而技术进步促进了技术转移。最后,基于这个实证结果,本文提出了相应的政策与建议。     

An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Groups in the Airline Industry using Latent Class Regressions

Two major controversies in strategic group research have been whether strategic groups actually exist and if so what is the best methodological approach to identify them. One perspective on strategic groups suggests that a strategic group exists if and only if the performance of a firm in the group is a function of group characteristics after controlling for firm and industry characteristics. We test this theoretical position by developing and estimating a model for the airline industry using latent class regressions. Our analysis finds evidence for the existence of four distinct strategic groups of firms in the airline industry. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

邮政业与区域经济增长关系——以上海市为例

随着电子商务和跨境电商的发展,邮政业的发展对国民经济的支撑作用越来越显著,农村电商的发展更是提高了邮政业在城乡经济协调发展的关键地位。因此文章以上海市邮政业与经济发展协调性为研究对象,通过VAR模型的格兰杰因果检验法,对上海市2002～2018年邮政业务总量和生产总额进行分析,分析表明上海市邮政业与经济发展存在互动的格兰杰因果关系。     

GMM Estimation with Non‐causal Instruments*

This note provides a warning against careless use of the generalized method of moments (GMM) with time series data. We show that if time series follow non‐causal autoregressive processes, their lags are not valid instruments, and the GMM estimator is inconsistent. Moreover, endogeneity of the instruments may not be revealed by the J‐test of overidentifying restrictions that may be inconsistent and has, in general, low finite‐sample power. Our explicit results pertain to a simple linear regression, but they can easily be generalized. Our empirical results indicate that non‐causality is quite common among economic variables, making these problems highly relevant.     

Competition

This article examines the adoption of strategic Human Resource Management (HRM) by for-profit and non-profit knowledge-intensive health services (HS) organizations in the Australian context. Survey data collected from senior executives are used to test the relationships between a strategic HRM model and firm performance. Path analysis found that for HS firms, irrespective of whether for-profit or non-profit, adopting strategic HRM could increase organizational performance. Strategic HRM could be achieved through the cultivation of an external orientation to customers' demands and a commitment to employees. Building an external orientation with internal structural dimensions such as commitment to employees, allows HS organizations to develop a strategic HRM approach with human capital-enhancing HRM practices. Public and non-profit organizations in the HS industry facing or undergoing health sector reform need to be aware of both of these orientations in order to adopt strategic HRM and improve their performance.     

物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究

以物流业和三次产业为研究对象,运用计量经济理论的模型和方法,对中国1978～2009年物流业与三个产业发展的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:从协整检验和误差修正模型看,中国物流业与三次产业之间呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期波动也起着正的影响作用;从格兰杰因果关系检验看,中国物流业与第一产业和第二产业有单向的因果关系,与第三产业有双向因果关系。     

Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the US, using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and real GDP per capita, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2012:Q2. The full-sample bootstrap non-Granger causality test result suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality running from the real house price index to real GDP per capita. A wide variety of tests of parameter constancy used to examine the stability of the estimated vector autoregressive models indicate short- and long-run instability. This suggests that we cannot rely on the full-sample causality tests and, hence, this warrants a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to examine the causal relationship between these two variables. Using a rolling window size of 28 quarters, we find that while causality from the real house price to real GDP per capita occurs frequently, significant, but less frequent, evidence of real GDP per capita causing the real house price also occurs. These results imply that while the real house price leads real GDP per capita, in general (both during expansions and recessions), significant feedbacks also exist from real GDP per capita to the real house price.     

关于几个条件独立性检验统计量的构造与比较分析

变量间的条件独立性可视为在概率空间上对其因果关系的一种描述,因而可以通过检验变量之间的条件独立性来检验因果关系。文章详细介绍了几个条件独立性检验统计量的构造方法和基本原理,包括线性模型假设下的Fisher-z检验统计量和在非线性模型下或无法确定变量之间的模型时使用的3个非参数的条件独立性检验统计量,并对这几个不同的条件独立性检验统计量的检验效率进行了对比分析。     

基于协整分析的我国物流业与经济增长关系研究

运用协整检验、误差修正模型及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,利用1985-2008年的货运量数据和国内生产总值数据,对我国物流业和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结论表明二者之间存在着长期稳定的关系,且互为因果关系。     

生产性服务业利用外资与我国服务业经济增长的实证分析

本文采用1993-2008年的经济数据,从生产性服务业外商直接投资对中国服务业经济增长的影响出发,对二者的关系进行了协整检验和格兰杰检验。结果发现,生产性服务业吸引外商直接投资和服务业经济增长之间存在Granger因果关系,生产性服务业FDI与服务业经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,在此基础上又进一步分析不同行业的生产性服务业FDI对其经济增长的影响,并基于检验结果做出结论。     

Restricted forecasting with VAR models: An analysis of a test for joint compatibility between restrictions and forecasts

A restricted forecasting compatibility test for Vector Autoregressive Error Correction models is analyzed in this work. It is shown that a variance–covariance matrix associated with the restrictions can be used to cancel out model dynamics and interactions between restrictions. This allows us to interpret the joint compatibility test as a composition of the corresponding single restriction compatibility tests. These tests are useful for appreciating the contribution of each and every restriction to the joint compatibility between the whole set of restrictions and the unrestricted forecasts. An estimated process adjustment for the test is derived and the resulting feasible joint compatibility test turns out to have better performance than the original one. An empirical illustration of the usefulness of the proposed test makes use of Mexican macroeconomic data and the targets proposed by the Mexican Government for the year 2003.     

Endogenously Asynchronous Entries into an Uncertain Industry

We model and analyze a priori symmetric duopoly where supply quantity adjustment is slow and time-consuming. The state of demand is ex ante uncertain, and becomes observable a certain time period after at least one firm's entry. We characterize those conditions under which sequential entries can be endogenously chosen either as an asymmetric pure-strategy equilibrium or as a consequence of a symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium. Also, in the limit where information revelation is infinitely fast (i.e., the time period it requires becomes infinitesimally short), the expected waiting time until the first entry does not necessarily become proportionately short, whilst the time interval between the leader's entry and the follower's entry does become infinitesimally short. This suggests that chronologically nearly simultaneous entry should not necessarily be interpreted as counterevidence against leader-follower relations. In addition to equilibrium comparative statics, we also analyze some of the welfare issues associated with strategic timing of entry.     

吉林省民营外贸企业对外贸易与经济增长的相关性的实证分析

我国政府从1999年开始,先后多次放开了民营企业对外贸易方面的限制,为民营企业创造了更为透明和公正的经营空间。吉林省各级地方政府已经开始高度重视民营企业的发展。吉林省民营企业的进出口贸易与经济增长之间有着非常密切的关系。通过使用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学分析方法对吉林省2004年一季度至2008年第三季度数据进行检验,可以证明吉林省民营企业对外贸易与经济增长之间存在协整关系,格兰杰因果检验也表明吉林省民营企业进出口与经济增长之间存在因果关系。因此,高度重视吉林省民营企业的发展,对推动吉林省经济振兴具有十分重要的指导作用。     

Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand

The present study derives a set of cross-equation restrictions imposed on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand. Since typically data are seasonally unadjusted for many countries, a seasonal difference rather than the conventional first difference is employed here to compute the growth rate. This seemingly innocuous change in the computation of the growth rate nevertheless makes the multi-period forward-looking money demand equilibrium model substantially different from previous studies. In addition, the related cointegration analysis and implied cross-equation restrictions are also considerably changed. The existence of up to three seasonal unit roots derived from a seasonal difference supports the need for seasonal cointegration, suggesting a new test for the forward-looking equilibrium model. An application of testing such derived cross-equation restrictions to the equilibrium model is illustrated through use of macroeconomic data on Taiwan.