Portfolio modelling and growth in open economies

The standard BRANSON model is modified in a way which allows one to focus on the short term dynamics of foreign bonds markets, the money market and the stock market—or alternatively the oil market. This allows us to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate and the oil price within a portfolio choice model; also we identify critical expectation dynamics in a more conventional pricing approach to the oil market—expectations determine whether or not the oil market equilibrium is compatible with a stationary price or with sustained oil price inflation. Moreover, a straightforward innovative way to combine a portfolio approach with a growth model is developed. New results are obtained—through multiplier analysis—about the long term effects of changes in the savings rate, the process innovation rate, the product innovation variable and the money supply on the exchange rate and the stock market price; this raises many empirical issues. Finally, the analysis presented sheds new light on the global asset price dynamics in the context of the banking crisis. To the memory of Edward Graham, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.     

Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates on base money—or equivalently ‘taxing money’—as a means for overcoming the zero bound on short-term nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates starting from the ‘taxing money’ proposal of Silvio Gesell up to current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. It is demonstrated that ‘taxing money’ proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step, the article points out that besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates.     

The Swedish banking crisis: roots and consequences

The article analyses the Swedish banking crisis in the early1990s. Newly deregulated credit markets after 1985 stimulateda competitive process between financial institutions where expansionwas given priority. Combined with an expansive macro policy,this contributed to an asset price boom. The subsequent crisisresulted from a highly leveraged private sector being simultaneouslyhit by three major exogenous events: a shift in monetary policywith an increase in pre-tax interest rates, a tax reform thatincreased after tax interest rates, and the ERM crisis. Combinedwith some overinvestment in commercial property, high real interestrates contributed to breaking the boom in real estate pricesand triggering a downward price spiral resulting in bankruptciesand massive credit losses. The government rescued the bankingsystem by issuing a general guarantee of bank obligations. Thetotal direct cost to the taxpayer of the salvage has been estimatedat around 2 per cent of GDP.     

内部资源不确定性与民营企业创新力研究

鉴于中国民营企业创新主要依靠自有资金的特征现实,文章以企业内部资金为例,将内部资源不确定性纳入到现有的外部环境不确定性与企业创新研究框架中,探讨企业在不同内外部不确定性组合状况下的创新行为反应。理论矩阵模型揭示,内部资金资源不确定性对企业创新决策的影响超过外部环境不确定性,在企业创新行为选择过程中起主导作用,而且内部资金不确定性与企业创新之间存在着负相关关系。这一理论推论得到了企业微观调研数据的实证支持,并且相比国有企业,民营企业创新对内部资金资源的不稳定性更敏感。研究表明,政府激励民营企业创新的政策,当以稳定企业内部资源、提高企业收入帮助企业拥有稳定资金流为主要着力点,在具体政策工具上,税收减免比研发资助补贴等措施在激励企业研发、改变民营企业创新能力低动力不足方面更有效。     

产业政策扶持激励了企业创新吗?——基于“五年规划”变更的自然实验

产业升级是政府产业政策的核心目标,这一宏观过程顺利与否很大程度上取决于微观企业的创新活动。文章以2007-2014年中国上市公司为样本,利用2011年“五年规划”变更这一自然实验构造的双重差分模型（DID）探讨了宏观产业政策之于微观企业创新的经济后果及其作用机制。研究表明,产业政策能够增加被扶持企业的创新投入,且影响程度呈现出“先升后降”的动态变化趋势;上述作用主要是通过政府补贴、税收优惠等“资源效应”而非通过降低企业市场势力、行业集中程度等“竞争效应”实现的;进一步研究发现,资源依赖下的产业政策降低了被扶持企业的创新效率,这在“特惠型”的资源分配方式即政府补贴和税收优惠等集中于少数企业的情况下尤为严重。上述结论为我们理解产业政策对企业创新的作用及其内在机制提供了经验证据。     

促进银行业发展的税收政策研究

银行业是国民经济的重要组成部分,而银行业税收政策是否科学直接影响到银行业的经营成果,本文结合我国现阶段的经济发展状况,从分析银行业税收政策的不足和缺陷入手,对我国银行业现行税收政策存在的问题做了细致的分析,并借鉴国际税收政策改革的经验,对我国银行业税收政策提出了一系列的改革措施和建议。     

Dealing with bank system failure: Indonesia, 1997–2003

Indonesia's crisis recovery program has failed badly in relation to the two key objectives of development economics policy making: efficiency and equity. The economy went into severe recession within a few months of the IMF appearing on the scene, and six years later output was little higher than before the crisis. The collapse of the banking system and the associated government bailout of depositors has imposed a loss on the public of at least 40% of GDP. This paper describes that collapse and the government's policy response to it, under advice from the IMF. It goes on to propose an alternative scheme that might have been followed—and that could be followed in future banking crises. Its twin objectives are to maintain the integrity of the payments system and to avoid inequitable wealth transfers that result from government bailouts of banks and their depositors.     

对依法治税的重构的几个问题的思考

随着国际金融危机爆发,我国社会在税收经济领域出现了法治观念模糊、税收立法滞后,税收与经济关系不配比倾向等问题,严重影响到新一轮税制改革的方向、步骤。笔者认为应该从疏理分析存在的问题着手,围绕理念创新,重新认识关系定位,为依法治税寻找新的有效途径。     

Origins of the financial crisis and requirements for reform

This paper examines the causes of the global financial crisis (focusing in particular on why residential mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps exploded from around 2004) and the policy reform agenda. Arbitrage opportunities in capital rules and the tax system were available, and changes in regulations affecting the leverage of international banks (IBs) played a key role in allowing these opportunities to be exploited on a greater scale. Changes to the Basel rules also actively contributed to the sharp rise in toxic securities. The policy agenda focuses on the need to deal with toxic assets, and for broader reforms to incentive structures, not only of capital rules, but also of corporate governance and banking structures. Specific policy reform recommendations are made. Recent numbers on the capital needs of banks suggest that we are not very far into the process of dealing with the crisis, and lack of transparency in this respect is a major issue in Europe. The longer-run reform process too is not focusing on the ideal building blocks.     

An introduction to problems of economic development in the CMEA countries

Through the Asian financial crisis, many key international economic issues have come to the forefront the stability of the international financial system under the IMF, “Asian values”, the universal validity of the Asian Economic Development Model, China's leadership in the regional world economy, Japan's role in the region, and the immunity of Greater China from the current financial crisis. Currently, most Asian countries seem eager to redress structural problems involving the government sector, banking, and corporate governance. In the process of this full scale restructuring, Korea must reevaluate its economic relationship with Central Asia. This paper argues that Korean financial crisis stems basically from the system failure. Furthermore, since a small open economy carries with it intrinsic vulnerabilities, the government should be more careful in securing optimal foreign exchange, opening capital markets based on the economy's absorption capacity. In this respect, the banking industry should be run based on the profitability of capital. Once banking industries are distorted by the practice of government‐led policy loans, it is more difficult to correct those customized distortions. The banking industry should play a larger role as the “brain of the economy”, sensing abnormalities of the economy. Moreover, in today's increasingly interdependent global economic system, no single country can solve its problems without close coordination of its policy with the outside world. An early warning system to signal financial instability would help developing economies in modernizing and strengthening their domestic financial institutions and would also work as a supplement to the IMF standby fund. Also, human resource management has proven too important to be neglected. Central Asia could derive lessons from the above Asian “failure”, not the Asian “miracle”, to avoid inappropriate policies and to deepen its economic development.     

Twin Banking and Currency Crises and Monetary Policy

Currency crises are found to be strongly associated with banking crises. This paper constructs a twin banking and currency crisis model by introducing the banking sector into the currency crisis model and examining the case in which the exchange rate risk is located in the banking system. The model shows that an unanticipated shock caused by the shift of investors’ expectations and/or a negative productivity shock can trigger a twin banking and currency crisis. To achieve both financial stability and economic stability, the central bank uses multiple monetary policy instruments. In contrast to the conventional policy recommendation in response to a currency crisis, i.e., interest rate hike, we find that when the exchange rate risk is located in the banking sector, the monetary policy option to prevent a twin crisis is to lower the policy interest rate and the reserve requirement ratio and raise the interest rate on reserves. Our results show that the location of the exchange rate risk matters for the choice of an appropriate monetary policy response during a crisis.     

高新技术企业认定政策对企业创新的激励效应——基于河北省高新技术企业的实证研究

国家“十四五”规划将创新确定为现代化全局建设的核心地位,而高新技术企业认定是政府激励企业创新的重要政策,但该政策是否达到预期效果尚需要实证检验。因此,以河北省高新技术企业为样本,使用分位数回归和门限回归重点研究高新技术企业认定对企业创新的激励效应。研究结果表明：高新技术企业认定政策可以通过税收减免、现金奖励和政治背书等途径显著激励企业的创新积极性;对创新投入水平较低企业的创新积极性影响更显著;相较于大规模企业,该政策更能促进中小规模企业的创新。     

The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

新型基础设施建设的投融资模式与路径探索

新型基础设施是以适应新一轮科技革命变革需要为导向,以连接为基础,以计算为核心,支撑数据的感知、连接、汇聚、融合、分析、决策、执行、安全等各环节运行,并提供智能化产品和服务的新一代数字基础设施体系,具有技术更新迭代快、软硬兼备、协同融合等主要特征。下一步,可以将5G、云计算、人工智能、工业互联网、区块链等领域为重点突破口,运用市场化、多样化创新金融工具,协同整合政府财政资金、开发性金融资金和商业金融资金弥补投融资资金缺口。同时,要明确市场的主导和建设角色,强化政府引导职能,进一步完善投融资体制,激发各类市场主体投资活力,鼓励商业模式创新,培育应用场景。     

基于学习效应与示范效应的银行金融创新监管机制设计

在金融创新与金融监管的动态博弈过程中,存在着学习效应与示范效应,文章通过学习效应与示范效应模型的构建,解释了当前金融危机发生的根本原因,即创新过度而监管不足;并基于学习效应与示范效应进行银行金融创新的监管机制设计,即监管当局应建立严惩过度创新的强监管者信誉,银行应建立合理的金融创新的激励约束机制,而最关键的是引入考虑监管当局与银行双方博奔关系的预先承诺机制。     

税收优惠对先进制造业集群创新的影响

选取2006—2021年我国A股上市公司作为样本,选取19个省市的先进制造业15个具有代表性的行业数据,研究税收优惠如何影响先进制造业集群创新水平。研究发现：税收优惠与先进制造业集群创新水平呈正向关系,增值税优惠影响更大;非国企税收优惠对创新的影响大于国企,且更显著;税收优惠对先进制造业集群创新存在滞后性,企业需要时间充分利用政策进行创新。鉴于此,应坚持实施税收优惠,重点强化非国企税收优惠,精准把控税收优惠滞后性。     

Federalism vs. the unitary state: options for English Canada in the event of the separation of Quebec

The two principle institutions of Canada as it is today — bilingualism and federal government — are designed to accommodate French-speaking people and English-speaking people within a single nation. Neither institution would be appropriate for the largely English-speaking country that remains if Quebec secedes. In that event, English Canada should reorganize itself as a unitary state with no constitutionally-sanctioned provinces at all. That would avoid the well-known inefficiencies of federal government, the duplication of bureaucracy, and the needless tax competition among jurisdictions. A nationwide sharing community would develop the common interest and common loyalty that an ethnically-diverse country such as English Canada requires for self-preservation. Without Quebec, there would be no geographically-concentrated languages or cultures which the provinces might conceivably protect.     

Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?

The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the US and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this article we argue that the structure of financial systems is path‐dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the US in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early nineteenth century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast, the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis‐prone US banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks, and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2007–8 was not contained.     

基于个体工商户利益视角的税制改革

解决就业问题,鼓励创业是关键,而个体工商户是个人和家庭尤其是弱势群体创业的主要选择形式,但现行税收制度不利于个体工商户发展,主要表现为:和工薪阶层相比,同为劳动者,个体工商户缴纳税种多,名义税负重;起征点制度缺乏公平;创业所得税负高于消极所得税负,创业者创业热情遭受制度打击。据此,建议对个体工商户实行轻税政策,免征个体工商户的货物与劳务税,只征收个人所得税;对个体工商户的生产、经营所得实行单一比例税制;提高个体工商户个人所得税免征额。     

股利所得税差别化征收的市场效应研究——基于金融市场税收运行机制视角

财政部、国家税务总局、证监会于2012年11月16日颁布了《关于实施上市公司股息红利差别化个人所得税政策有关问题的通知》,此次税收调整的目的是通过有针对性的税收优惠政策进行结构性减税,确保资金的合理配置和股票市场的正常运行。通过事件研究法,从金融市场税收运行视角分析发现,此次股利所得税调整对过去一年发放股利的公司具有正向影响并且该影响具有时效性,同时由于持有过去一年股利发放公司股票的投资者大多属于长线投资者,此次税改对该类投资者而言是一种实质上的减税,因此本次税改在短期内产生了显著的微观经济效应,达到了政策设计的初衷,为大盘蓝筹股的价值提升了市场地位,为公司的直接融资提供了市场基础。