Immigrant Unemployment in the First Year of Australian Labour Market Activity*

Analysis of data from a 1983 Manpower Programs Survey shows that the relatively high unemployment rates experienced by overseas-born labour market entrants are reasonably widespread across immigrant groups. One exception is refugees, who are more likely to be unemployed than non-refugees. Consistent with prior research, additional years of education are associated with only modest reductions in the unemployment rates of immigrants. However, immigrants are able to reduce their predicted unemployment rates considerably by obtaining information on Australian job opportunities prior to migrating.     

Labour Market Policies and Long-term Unemployment in a Flow Model of the Australian Labour Market

This paper develops a general equilibrium job matching model, which is used to assess the impact of active labour market policies, reductions in unemployment benefits and reductions in worker bargaining power on long-term unemployment and other key macro variables. The model is calibrated using Australian data. Simulation experiments are conducted through impulse response analysis. The simulations suggest that active labour market programs (ALMPs) targeted at the long-term unemployed have a small net impact and produce adverse spillover effects on short-term unemployment. Reducing the level of unemployment benefits relative to wages and worker bargaining power have more substantial effects on total and long-term unemployment and none of the spillover effects of ALMPs.     

Undereducation and Overeducation in the Australian Labour Market*

This paper uses data from the 1996 Census of Population and Housing Household Sample File (HSF) to study the incidence of mismatch between workers' educational attainments and the requirements of their jobs, and the earnings consequences of this mismatch. It also examines whether mismatch contributes to the explanation of the gender wage differential in the Australian labour market. It is found that approximately 15.8 per cent of men and 13.6 per cent of women are overeducated, whereas approximately 18.5 per cent of women and 13.7 per cent of men are undereducated. Substantial earnings consequences are found to be associated with this mismatch, with surplus schooling yielding relatively low returns. The results suggest that mismatch does not account for the gender wage gap in the Australian labour market; rather the gender wage differential is entrenched in the fundamentals of pay determination.     

Wage Adjustments and Labour Market Systems: A Cross-Country Analysis*

Evidence is presented on how well alternative systems of wage determination facilitate disaggregate labour market adjustment. Tests of statistical causality are used to relate labour market pressure to relative wage changes. The conclusion is that rates of change of relative wages are determined independently of the microeconomic market balance. This result holds irrespective of the institutional form of the wage-fixing system.     

Sex Discrimination and Occupational Segregation in the Australian Labour Market*

This paper explores the implications of the difference between the occupational distribution for males and females in a joint model determining earnings and occupation. The male/female wage differential is evaluated for a number of broad occupational classifications. This is followed by an evaluation of the role and relative importance of inter-occupational and intra-occupational effects as contributors to the overall male/female wage differential The main conclusion following from the econometric results is that intra-occupational effects dominate Thus, policies which attempt to address the gender wage differential by re-allocation of labour across occupations are unlikely to solve the problem.     

An Empirical Analysis of Australian Labour Productivity

This study presents a model capturing sources of Australian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1970 to 2001. Labour productivity, or real output per hour worked, in this model is determined by real net capital stock in information technology and telecommunications (ITT), real net capital stock in the non-ITT sector, trade openness, human capital, the wage rate, international competitiveness, and the union membership rate. Given the lack of long and consistent time series data, multivariate cointegration techniques are inappropriate as the cointegration results will be sensitive to the lag length, the inclusion or exclusion of the intercept term or a trend in the cointegration equation and/or the vector autoregression (VAR) specification. Therefore, the Engle-Granger representation theorem and the Hausman weak exogeneity test have been employed to determine the short and long-term drivers of Australian productivity. Empirical estimates indicate that, in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of investment, trade openness, international competitiveness, and the use of wage as a stimulant in a decentralised wage negotiation system, will improve labour productivity. In the short term, all the above variables except for human capital and labour reforms, which both need more time to evolve, determine productivity performance.     

The Impact of Immigration on a Depressed Labour Market: The South Australian Experience*

This paper examines the impact of immigration on the relatively depressed labour market in South Australia during the 1976-81 inter-censal period. The findings indicate that recently arrived immigrants have experienced exceedingly high unemployment rates. However, this is consistent with the view that immigration generates additional job opportunities for Australian residents (except in the manufacturing industry and trades occupations), and that immigrants experience high unemployment rates specifically because they have been unable to compete a 'fair share' of jobs away from residents already entrenched in the labour market.     

Duration-Specific Unemployment Outflow Rates and Labour Market Programs

A matching function approach is used to investigate the macroeconomic effects of labour market program (LMP) commencements on unemployment outflows in Australia using unpublished data that classify commencements and outflows by duration of unemployment. The results indicate that LMPs have had significant effects on outflows from long-term unemployment. However, the net impact of programs on these outflows suggests that the substitution and displacement effects associated with programs are high. These results are consistent with recent microeconomic research into the effects of LMP participation on individual transitions out of unemployment.     

Labour Market Adjustment: Evidence on Interstate LabourMobility

In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of the Australian state labour markets, focusing on the role of geographic labour mobility. We find that interstate migration does play an important role in reducing differences in labour market conditions between states, although permanent (or very persistent) differences between state unemployment rates remain. We also find that out-migration from a state resulting from a relative downturn in its labour market occurs slowly and steadily. Most of the migration takes place, on average, within four years, and the process of adjustment is complete after seven years.     

Labour Market Flexibility and Immigrant Adjustment

A comparative analysis of adult male immigrant earnings and unemployment in the US and Australia using a measure of expected earnings shows that immigrants in the US perform relatively well, and the pattern of the differences between immigrant adjustment in the US and Australia appears to have links to differences in methods of pay determination. The results suggest an advantage to a more flexible labour market. A simulation exercise demonstrates the sensitivity of the findings to cohort effects.     

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.     

Microeconomic Evaluations of Australian Labour Market Programs

This article reviews literature which measures the effects of labour market programs on individual's labour market outcomes.     

The Australian Labour Market and the Early Impact of COVID-19: An Assessment

From March to June 2020 was the most dramatic four months in the history of the Australian labour market. Never before has a such a substantial decrease in labour demand (and partial reversal) occurred so quickly. In this article, we present an overview of the early impact of COVID-19: the main drivers it brought into play and the consequent labour market developments. Aggregate effects and how impacts differed by type of job and worker are described. We conclude with a brief review of the main government response to COVID-19, the JobKeeper program.     

Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-biased' Technology Shocks: the Role of Labour Market Policy

Do skill-biased shocks that increase the spread of labour productivities, interacting with different policy regimes, explain the rise in unemployment in Europe relative to the United States in the 1980s and 1990s? The hypothesis is an implication of a version of the Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) model of equilibrium unemployment which allows for worker heterogeneity. A calibrated version of the model implies that a similar unemployment increase would have occurred in the United States over this period, given changes in relative productivity by education implied by observed wage changes, had unemployment compensation and employment protection policies been at European levels.     

The Youth Labour Market in Australia*

This paper uses unit record data from the 1985 Australian Longitudinal Survey to review the major features of the youth labour market. It is shown that education plays an important role in determining the incidence of unemployment, wages, hours of work and access to training opportunities. Analyses of labour market dynamics indicates that the probability of leaving unemployment falls off substantially as the duration of the unemployment spell increases. A major conclusion of the paper is that the longer term unemployed appear to be segmented from other labour market participants. An implication of this finding is that there b very little which the longer term unemployed can do at the margin to influence their success other than adopt the most productive method of job search.     

Labour Market Inefficiency and Frictional Unemployment in Australia and its States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This paper provides estimates of labour market inefficiency and the frictional unemployment rate for Australia and its States over the period January 1978 to December 1997. These estimates are derived from parametric statistical models of employment growth in which technical inefficiencies are accounted for. The mean estimate of the (technically efficient) frictional unemployment rate for Australia over the sample period is S3 per cent of the labour force. Technical inefficiency in the labour market matching process is significant and contributes around 13 per cent to the mean steady-state (naturaľ) unemployment rate. Investigation of the factors explaining the levels of inefficiency suggests that inefficiencies vary countercyclical, are related to which political party is in power and the time of year and that only Western Australia and Queensland have exhibited a significant decline in inefficiency over the period.     

Labour Supply and the Risk of Divorce: An Analysis of Australian Data

This article examines the possible consequences of rising divorce risks for the pattern of married women's labour supply in the Australian labour market. An extension of Becker's (1965) model of time allocation is used to inform an empirical analysis of this issue based on the 1997 Negotiating the Life Course Survey data. The empirical analysis in the article features a model that controls for the possibility of an endogenous relationship between women's involvement in paid work and the risk of divorce. Results show a significant positive relationship between the risk of divorce and the probability that a woman will be involved in full‐time work.