Computation and the Theory of Customs Unions

This paper reports on research that uses computational techniquesto assess whether or not various propositions that have beenadvanced as plausible in the literature on the theory of customsunions actually hold. This research blends theory and numericalsimulation to get insights into the likelihood that\ varioustheoretical propositions proposed in the customs union literaturehold. (JEL F10, F13, F15}     

Incentives to Form Customs Unions and Quotas

This paper extends the well known Kemp–Wang proposition regarding customs unions and tariffs to the case of import quotas. It is shown that a customs union in the presence of import quotas will leave each country, whether a member of the customs union or not, not worse off than before the formation of the customs union. The partial-equilibrium approach is used in this study.     

Trade Unions and Consumerism

Public pension systems have long been a focus of special attention by neoclassical economics. In a context of intense aging processes, mainstream economists argue that the replacement of the pay-as-you-go pensions systems by unfunded individual savings accounts will have a positive impact, at a microeconomic and at a macroeconomic level, and will protect pension systems of the negative consequences of aging. However, these conclusions depend dramatically on the assumptions of rational expectations and perfect information. When we accept the existence of uncertainty, the presumed positive consequences of these reforms disappear, showing the advantages of pay-as-you-go over funded pension systems.     

Consumption Values of Trade Unions

The widening of the U.S. market following the adoption of the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution stimulated changes in methods of production and business organization. These changes required a radical change in finance that prompted the Supreme Court to adopt exchange value as the accepted principle of property rights. These rights did not rest on tangible material, but on incorporeal and intangible assets. This legalized the firm as a going concern instead of a bundle of things and enhanced the role of finance relative to production. These evolving business practices and supporting judicial decisions set the U.S. economy on the path that has resulted in our current financial economy. The steps along this path are discussed in this article and we conclude that an economic theory based on intangible property is needed.     

A Second Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions

The conclusions of the 1976 Kemp–Wan proposition are shown to be valid even if, after the formation of a customs union, the tariff vectors of some non-member countries are optimally chosen.
JEL Classification Numbers: F02, F12, F13, F15.     

中国区域间的制度性贸易成本与贸易福利

降低中国国内区域间的贸易成本,对于充分发挥国内市场潜力,推动构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局具有重要意义,而降低国内区域间的制度性贸易成本,更是促进国内大循环有效畅通的重要举措。本文通过构建一个多部门的一般均衡模型,发现中国国内贸易中的制度性贸易成本在国内总贸易成本中占比为21.7%,且制度性贸易成本的降低对贸易福利的改善来说效益十分明显,平均来看制度性贸易成本降低50%,会使中国整体福利水平提升5.9%,欠发达区域从制度性贸易成本的下降中获益最多。进一步地,各区域生产率差异化程度越高,即贸易弹性值越小,则制度性贸易成本的下降所带来的潜在收益也就越大;分部门来看,降低石油加工及炼焦业、农业、钢铁及有色金属加工冶炼业以及食品加工业部门的制度性贸易成本,将对中国的整体福利水平带来可观的效益。     

Trade Unions, Collective Voice and Fringe Benefits*

The exit/voice model of the labour market predicts that unionized workers will enjoy a greater level of fringe benefits, both absolutely and as a share of total compensation, than non-unionists. This is because unions can, through the medium of collective voice, communicate to management a picture of the preferences of the median worker. In non-union settings, however, management responds to the perceived preferences of the young, mobile workers at the hiring margin and these typically place a low priority on fringe benefits relative to money wages. Using data from the A ustralian Longitudinal Survey it is found that the hypothesis is supported by the evidence for Australia.     

推动自贸试验区升级为自由贸易港的对策研究

相较于自贸试验区,自由贸易港将是开放层次更高、营商环境更佳、辐射能力更强的对外窗口。在构建开放型经济新体制过程中,推动部分现有自贸试验区向自由贸易港升级将是我国进一步扩大开放战略的重要实施途径。我国自贸试验区建设五年多来,基本建立了以负面清单管理模式为核心的投资管理制度、以贸易便利化为重点的贸易监管制度、以进一步扩大开放为目的的金融服务制度、以服务市场为目标的政府管理制度,为自由贸易港建设打下了坚实的基础。但仍存在法制建设相对滞后、改革创新与协调效率不高、风险管控能力有待提升和要素流动尚不通畅等问题。因此,如何有效解决以上问题、突破相关障碍,是自贸试验区升级为自由贸易港的核心和关键。     

Market, Trade and Welfare in General Equilibrium

This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of an economy with an arbitrary number of industries under increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition. The market structure of the model economy is expressed by two basic sets of parameters: the degree of competition, and the markup ratio prevailing in each industry. The government is supposed to control the degree of competition through antitrust policy and the markup ratio through entry policy. Using this model, I re-examine the results of traditional competitive equilibrium analysis and explore the effects of competition policies on economic welfare and international trade.
JEL Classification Numbers: D43, D50, F11, F12, L13, L41.     

建立中国——东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势.按照<中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议>时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成.本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国-东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力.     

Cross-Border Pollution,Terms of Trade,and Welfare

We construct a two-good general equilibrium model of international trade for two small open economies where pollution from production is transmitted across borders. Governments in both countries impose emission taxes non-cooperatively. Within this framework, we examine the effect of changes in the degree of cross-border pollution on Nash emission taxes, emission levels and welfare. We do so under two scenarios: when changes in cross-border pollution do not affect domestic pollution (non-strategic) and when they do (strategic). We also examine the effect of changes in international terms of trade on pollution and welfare when cross-border pollution is non-strategic.      

河南自贸区国际艺术品保税区发展现状分析

本文梳理了国内外艺术品保税区的发展进程,从国内外汲取经验教训,探索河南自贸区国际艺术品保税区的发展路线并提出一些政策建议。     

Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements

This paper examines various implications of preferential trade agreements, namely customs unions and free trade areas, in the context of a multicountry general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated to represent countries with symmetric endowments, and aggregate and disaggregate welfare change measures are used to quantify the welfare effects of preferential trade agreements. It is found that free trade areas are better than customs unions on welfare grounds for the world as a whole. Welfare decompositions suggest that a significant fraction of the welfare changes is explained by the volume-of-trade effect for both types of preferential trade agreements.     

The Fallacy of Free Trade *

The purpose of this paper is to explode the myth of free trade. Productivity and real wages in the United States rose sharply between 1950 and 1972, but since then real earnings have been falling in spite of a continuous rise in productivity. It turns out that America was more or less a closed economy until 1972, as its trade/GNP ratio was close to 10%; but since then it has become an open economy. the theoretical model shows how real wages may fall in an open economy, but not in a closed economy, in spite of rising productivity.     

The Fallacy of Free Trade II

This paper argues that not a single proposition of the modern theory of free trade is upheld by the recent experience of the United States. Freer trade is supposed to raise GNP growth and productivity growth as well as the living standard. Until 1972, when the US was practically a closed economy with a trade/GNP ratio averaging a low of 12%, GNP growth was 3.8%, productivity growth was 2%, and real wages had been rising for 150 years. Since 1972, the trade/GNP ratio has been rising steadily, US GNP growth has been only 2.5%, productivity growth is below 1%, and real wages have been falling for over three-quarters of the labor force.     

西方关税同盟贸易效应的理论与实证研究

关税同盟理论是西方区域经济一体化理论的核心。区别于现有关税同盟的综述文章,作者将目前西方探讨关税同盟贸易效应的观点按照逻辑关系分成三个方面进行阐述:其一是关税同盟的利益来源;其二是关税同盟的产生原因;其三是最优对外关税的决定。本文也归纳了西方对关税同盟贸易效应进行经验分析的常用方法,并对已有的理论和实证观点进行评价。     

International Trade, Regional Free Trade Agreements, and Economic Development

In 1991, Krugman illustrated that natural (regional) free trade agreements (FTAs) are likely to be welfare-enhancing if intercontinental costs are prohibitively high, but are likely to be welfare-reducing if such costs are zero. In 1995, Frankel, Stein and Wei extended the analysis to consider positive but nonprohibitive transport costs. This paper extends these models to allow for countries of different economic size. Large countries will tend to have higher relative wages, influencing the relative gains and losses from natural FTAs. For even modest differences in size, intracontinental FTAs are welfare-enhancing for larger countries, regardless of strong preferences for diversity or low intercontinental transport costs.