Sovereign rating changes—Do they provide new information for stock markets?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995–2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses – both return and volatility – are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors’ asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.     

Monetary policy announcements and stock reactions: An international comparison

This article investigates the impact of domestic monetary policy rate announcements on the stock markets of New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom and the euro area, using event-study methods to identify stock price reactions to the unanticipated/surprise component of announcements. As Australia and New Zealand did not reach the zero bound we investigate whether there is an impact from the global financial crisis on stock market reactions that can be distinguished from the asymmetric reactions to surprises that characterise the business cycle. We find that the euro area and the UK both show a financial crisis effect but behaviour in New Zealand and Australia does not change. We conduct robustness checks and explore confounding factors, especially the impact of ‘guidance’ from central banks that prepares markets for policy rate changes.     

The Role of the Business Press in Creating and Disseminating Information around Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the role of the business press in creating and disseminating information around earnings announcements by examining different motivations of trading volume. We find that press coverage is positively associated with trading activity motivated by differential interpretation and by differential belief revision, consistent with the press playing both an information creation and information dissemination role around earnings announcements. When we divide press coverage into full articles with additional editorial content and news flashes merely repeating verbatim of firm-disclosed press releases, we find that trading volume motivated by both differential interpretation and differential belief revision increases as coverage by full articles increases, and trading volume motivated by differential belief revision increases as coverage by news flashes increases. We also report that the differential interpretation effect of full articles is more pronounced when information users’ sophistication is high. Overall, we provide new evidence to the literature by showing that each type of press coverage plays an informational role in different motivations of trading activity.     

Say-on-Pay Votes: The Role of the Media

Abstract

We investigate the association between the media coverage of firms’ CEO pay packages and subsequent shareholder voting on say-on-pay resolutions, and find that negative media coverage is able to predict shareholder discontent over say on pay. When we divide media coverage into coverage in the financial and business press versus coverage in the general press, we find that shareholder voting on say-on-pay resolutions is mainly associated with the articles from the financial and business press. This suggests that the media cannot be considered a homogeneous information source that is equally able to predict shareholders’ voting behaviors. As such, our findings have important implications for studies on the role of the media in corporate governance.     

The informational content of credit rating announcements for share prices in a small market

The informational value of credit ratings is a subject of continuing debate. This research examines whether reaction to small market credit rating announcements is different from large markets, due to limited information, liquidity premia, and analyst neglect factors. Unlike U.S. and Australian studies that find a significant reaction to only bad news, a significant positive reaction to both positive placements and upgrades is found in the New Zealand market. Further, significant market reaction largely accrues to firms not cross-listed in U.S. markets. This evidence suggests credit rating agencies act as substitute information providers for firms followed by relatively few analysts. A substantial portion of this research was completed while author Meyer was affiliated with Massey University, Albany Campus, Auckland, New Zealand.     

Capital market reactions to earnings announcements: empirical evidence on the difference in the information content of IAS-based earnings and EC-Directives-based earnings

Listing on a foreign stock exchange and the aim to attract international investors usually forces European quoted companies to adapt information supplied in financial statements to different information needs of international investors. Because of the dominance of the American stock market, this adaptation raises especially the question whether Anglo-American-oriented accounting standards (for instance IAS — International Accounting Standards) convey a higher information content for investors than continental-Europe-oriented accounting standards (for instance EC-Directives). The study examines the information content of earnings announcements, i.e. abnormal returns resulting from un-expected earnings, for a sample of Swiss quoted companies which have changed the accounting standard used for presenting Swiss GAAP consolidated financial statements to either EC-Directives or IAS and can therefore contribute to this discussion. The results of the study suggest that IAS-based earnings announce-ments convey a statistically significant higher information content than earnings announcements based on the Swiss GAAP if a variance-approach is used. For investors in the Swiss capital market, the switch from Swiss GAAP to IAS has therefore increased the information content of financial statements. But comparing IAS-based and EC-Directives-based earnings announcements, the results suggest that for investors IAS-based earnings do not possess a statistically significant higher information content than EC-Directives-based earnings. This result has been achieved despite the fact that for Swiss financial analysts financial statements based on IAS convey a significant higher information content than financial statements based on EC-Directives. Avoiding problems in specifying a model for unexpected earnings by standardizing the mean of the abnormal returns of each event window to a positive value does not lead to a different conclusion if the variance approach is used.     

Labor market reputation and the value of the firm

This study examines the stock market reaction to announcements that should contribute to the positive reputation of firms' human resource management practices. Announcements consist of the annual release of the list of 'best' employers by Working Mother magazine. We hypothesize that these announcements positively contribute to the firms' labor market reputation, thereby improving a firm's ability to attract, retain and motivate good employees. We find a small but statistically significant increase in firms' stock prices following the release of the list. The effect is larger, the first time a firm appears on the list relative to subsequent appearances.     

An empirical investigation of environmental performance and the market value of the firm

This paper analyzes the shareholder value effects of environmental performance by measuring the stock market reaction associated with announcements of environmental performance. We examine the market reaction to two categories of environmental performance. The first category includes 417 announcements of Corporate Environmental Initiatives (CEIs) that provide information about self-reported corporate efforts to avoid, mitigate, or offset the environmental impacts of the firm's products, services, or processes. The second category includes 363 announcements of Environmental Awards and Certifications (EACs) that provide information about recognition granted by third-parties specifically for environmental performance. Although the market does not react significantly to the aggregated CEI and EAC announcements, we find statistically significant market reactions for certain CEI and EAC subcategories. Specifically, announcements of philanthropic gifts for environmental causes are associated with significant positive market reaction, voluntary emission reductions are associated with significant negative market reaction, and ISO 14001 certifications are associated with significant positive market reaction. The difference between the market reactions to the CEI and EAC categories is statistically insignificant. Overall, the market is selective in reacting to announcements of environmental performance with certain types of announcements even valued negatively.     

Loan loss reporting,early disclosure,and investor reactions

Several prior studies present evidence that bank loan-loss announcements have a significant impact on shareholder wealth. There is no satisfactory explanation, however, as to why these announcements should change share prices. This paper examines loan-loss announcements in the context of the early disclosure literature. We find banks that publicly announce losses before releasing their quarterly earnings report have a significant increase in shareholder wealth following the loan-loss announcement. Banks that choose to publicly announce loan-loss increases with the release of quarterly-earnings report experience a significant decrease in shareholder wealth prior to the loan-loss announcement. Our results support the notion that the timing of the loan-loss announcement provides information to investors.     

Implications of limited investor attention to customer–supplier information transfers

This study focuses on the market reaction to information transfers from economically linked customers. I examine whether investors have limited attention with respect to the information contained in customer earnings announcements for suppliers. Using 1083 unique customer–supplier relationships for the period 1983–2011, I find that the cumulative abnormal returns of a supplier surrounding and following linked customers’ earnings announcements are positively related to the earnings information of the customers, suggesting that customer earnings announcements convey information to suppliers. I also find that the post-earnings announcement drift in customers contributes to the cross-firm reaction, and the predictability of customer earnings surprises for suppliers’ future returns is not entirely due to limited investor attention.     

Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes

Previous research has found that the stock market reacts negatively to bond rating downgrades and that downgrades tend to follow periods of negative returns, indicating that at least some downgrades are partially predictable. Hypothesizing that the reaction to a downgrade depends on both the implications for cash flows and the degree of surprise, we explore how the reaction to downgrade announcements varies across bond issues. We find that the equity market reacts much more negatively to bond rating downgrades to and within the speculative bond category than to downgrades within the investment grade category. Within the speculative category, the reaction is stronger, the lower the old and new ratings are. The reaction to multiple-level downgrades is not very different from that to single-level downgrades. The market reaction is also stronger if the firm has experienced negative pre-downgrade abnormal returns. Our evidence indicates that downgrades are viewed by the market as providing information on likely future earnings before interest charges, not just likely future interest charges. It is also consistent with Billett's (1996) hypothesis that low rated debt makes a firm less attractive as a takeover target.     

Spillover effects within supply chains: Evidence from Chinese-listed firms

There is increasing attention on information transfers along supply chain partners for firm (extreme) events. This growing literature finds spillover effects following certain types of firm events. Using data from credit rating actions of Chinese-listed firms over the period between March 2007 and May 2020, we examine the spillover effects of supply chains by focusing on the market reactions of event firms to the action announcements. We find strong evidence of spillover effects driven by the market reactions of event firms, which are enhanced through information diffusion channels as supply chain partners receive more investor attention. Moreover, the effects are stronger when event firms' market reactions are negative, event firms are non-stated-owned, the industry concentration of event firms is higher, or the supplier-customer business relationship is closer. Overall, these findings highlight the role of investor attention and network characteristics in supply chain spillovers.     

Market Reaction to Goodwill Impairments

This paper examines the information content of goodwill write-downs under International Accounting Standard (IAS) 36 (Impairment of Assets) and Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 142. We investigate whether the informational value depends on the reliability of the news. Using a sample of 564 goodwill write-down announcements issued from 2005 to 2009, we find a negative capital market reaction to announcements of unexpected goodwill write-offs. Our results indicate that investors react more negatively when a country's level of legal protection is low and allows more management discretion. We further report that market reaction is associated with managers explaining the write-down decision and depends on the verifiability of these explanations. Investors react more negatively when an unverifiable internal explanation is given and less negatively when a verifiable external explanation is provided. We do not find significant differences between write-down announcements under SFAS 142 and IAS 36.     

Credit rating changes and debt structure

Through examination of the relationship between rating levels and subsequent annual net debt changes, Kisgen (2006) provides support for the Credit Rationing – Capital Structure (CR-CS) hypothesis which maintains that “+” or “−” notch firms are more likely than non-notch firms to reduce net debt levels to increase the likelihood of a beneficial rating change. We add to the credit rating literature by focusing on quarterly net debt changes over the two years before and after rating changes to provide evidence that notch firms are generally not associated with lower net debt levels, greater net debt reductions, or higher probability of upgrades than non-notch firms before rating changes. Instead, notch firms with CW announcements are associated with relatively greater net debt level increases beginning three quarters before rating changes and these increases continue for firms both without and with CW announcements after the rating change. Further, in analysis of the strength of upgrades (UP) relative to downgrades (DOWN) at the time of rating change, we show that the UP/DOWN ratio is more a function of the presence of prior CreditWatch (CR) announcements than notch status. Firms without and with CW announcements exhibit UP/DOWN ratios of 0.8455 and 0.3628, respectively, with no significant differences in these ratios between notch and non-notch firms.     

Impact of regulation fair disclosure on the information flow associated with profit warnings

By implementing Regulation Fair Disclosure (RFD), the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) intention is to ensure that all market participants have equal access to information, thereby preventing the flow of material information to analysts before other participants. We find that the negative valuation effects of profit warnings are attenuated following the introduction of RFD. This finding implies that since the implementation of RFD, the market appears to rely less on profit warning announcements. We also find that RFD has effectively reduced the leakage of material information to the analyst's favored clients, the market response to profit warnings is less negative when the issuing firm has multiple warnings, and when the warning does not apply beyond the prevailing quarter.     

The valuation effects of bank loan ratings in the presence of multiple monitors

Studies have shown that when two information providers or outside auditors exist, the value provided by the second one will be decreased by the actions of the first. Credit rating agencies have been rating bank loans since 1996. Capitalizing on the highly similar functions performed by banks and these agencies, the informational value of bank loan ratings is examined. Further, evidence is provided on whether rating agencies duplicate the certifying and monitoring roles played by banks. The significant market reaction to negative bank loan rating announcements suggests these rating actions convey information beyond that provided via bank loan approvals and renewals. The authors wish to thank Richard Robinson (the Editor), an anonymous referee, Mary A. Lawrence, Abdullah Mamun, Brian Murphy, Lawrence Rose, Mark Vaughn, Massey University-Albany seminar, 2004 Financial Management Association and 2005 Academy of Financial Services participants for their helpful comments.     

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading,financial uncertainties,and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.     

上市公司财务重述公告的市场反应研究

本文利用事件研究法对发布财务重述公告的上市公司在公告日前后的市场反应进行了检验，并对比分析了不同类型重述公告引发的市场反应的差异。研究发现，上市公司的财务重述具有显著的负面市场反应，且不同类型重述公告的市场反应各异。由收入确认问题引发的财务重述，其负面市场反应大于由其他问题导致的财务重述的市场反应；当重述公告涉及范围广、重述发起人为外部监管机构、重述涉及核心会计指标以及重述导致盈余调减时，其负面市场反应更为显著。     

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility,short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim.     

The impact of regulation fair disclosure on earnings management and analyst forecast bias

Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) has changed the information transfer process in the US securities market. We examine the impact that regulation FD has had on earnings management and analyst forecast bias. First, we examine the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts in the post-FD period. We find that analysts have become less accurate in forecasting earnings in the post-FD period and tend to overestimate earnings more relative to the pre-FD period. Second, we examine the level of earnings management after the passage of regulation FD and we find that the level of earnings management did not change after the implementation of regulation FD