基于加权支持向量机的金融时间序列预测

金融时间序列数据的预测是商业领域的热点问题,对金融时间序列进行准确的预测,对金融投资决策与风险管理具有特别重要的意义。针对金融时间序列的特点,对传统支持向量机进行了改进,提出了基于加权支持向量机的金融时间序列预测方法。研究表明,与传统金融时间序列预测方法比较,基于加权支持向量机有效地提高了金融时间序列预测的精度。     

沪深两市股指时间序列突变点贝叶斯检测模型研究

股指时间序列突变点的检测是股指波动规律研究领域中的一个重要问题。依据贝叶斯原理提出的突变点检测分析模型,用Matlab工具软件对该模型进行了仿真,并且在实证分析中应用该模型分别对上证综合指数和深证成份指数月度时间序列数据进行了突变点检测分析,准确地确定了两市的突变点,和相应的后验概率分布,并解释了突变点形成的经济和政策背景。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship Between Change in Corporate Social Performance and Financial Performance: A Stakeholder Theory Perspective

Stakeholder theory provides a framework for investigating the relationship between corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate financial performance. This relationship is investigated by examining how change in CSP is related to change in financial accounting measures. The findings provide some support for a tenet in stakeholder theory which asserts that the dominant stakeholder group, shareholders, financially benefit when management meets the demands of multiple stakeholders. Specifically, change in CSP was positively associated with growth in sales for the current and subsequent year. This indicates that there are short-term benefits from improving CSP. Return on sales was significantly positively related to change in CSP for the third financial period, indicating that long-term financial benefits may exist when CSP is improved.     

农产品供应链质量整合对农业企业财务绩效的影响研究

文章根据农产品供应链的特点,设计以供应链质量整合为前因变量,以农产品质量安全绩效为中介变量,以财务绩效为结果变量的研究模型,实证分析了农产品供应链质量整合对财务绩效的影响机理,并探讨了社会协同监管的调节作用。研究表明,农产品供应链内部质量整合对供应商质量整合和客户质量整合有积极影响,内部质量整合、供应商质量整合和客户质量整合对质量安全绩效进而财务绩效也有积极影响。但相较于内部质量整合和客户质量整合而言,供应商质量整合对农产品质量安全绩效的影响更大。\"农产品质量安全绩效\"在\"供应链质量整合影响财务绩效\"的作用机制中发挥了部分中介作用,提升农业企业财务绩效一方面在于提升农产品质量安全绩效,另一方面在于提升供应链质量整合水平。此外,研究还发现,社会协同监管正向调节了内部质量整合和供应商质量整合对农产品质量安全绩效的影响,即加强社会协同监管,有利于增强内部质量整合和供应商质量整合对农产品质量安全绩效的作用效果。     

TIME‐CONSISTENT AND MARKET‐CONSISTENT EVALUATIONS

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.     

Owner Commitment and Relational Governance in the Privately-Held Firm: An Empirical Study

This paper examines owner commitment and relational governance in the privately-held firm. The proposed model goes beyond agency theory to include research on organization commitment and organization citizenship behaviors, as well as stewardship theory, organizational social capital theory, social identity theory and social exchange theory. Results support predictions of stewardship theory and organizational social capital theory that owner commitment and firm performance are positively related.      

社会政策对人口趋势影响的检验与评估

使用计量经济学中的时间序列模型 ,对我国改革政策对流动人口增长和对计划生育政策对生育率下降作用的显著性进行了检验。再次证实了社会政策对我国人口趋势的显著影响 ,同时对我国生育率的下降用模型分离了计划生育和社会经济发展的独立作用 ,估算了计划生育政策的实行对总和生育率下降、出生人数减少以及总人口增长的量化影响。     

The Creation of Value Through Corporate Reputation

The relationship between social and financial performance (CSP – FP) has been a main objective in the literature on business management, as it would provide an economic justification for the social investment insofar as it contributes to the creation of value. This relationship has been empirically tested by several authors though without using a theoretical model that sustains this relationship. The aim of this article is to propose a theoretical model of the process of the creation of value from the reputation generated by companies, integrating the factors that have been shown to be more relevant in this process from previous research, in such a way that hypotheses are put forward regarding the existence of this relationship and the factors that determine it. Finally, an empirical test is performed using the 100 most prestigious companies operating in Spain during 2004.     

Supply Chain Management Competency and Firm Financial Success

Supply chain management (SCM) plays a major role in creating (or destroying) shareholder value by influencing the three major drivers of firm financial performance: revenue, operating costs, and working capital. Yet, the relationship between SCM competency and firm financial performance is not well‐established. Drawing on the resource‐based view of the firm, this study assesses this relationship using Delphi‐style opinion data from AMR Research’s Supply Chain Top 25 rankings to assess SCM competency and Altman’s (1968) Z‐score statistic as the measure of financial success. The study findings show that firms recognized by industry experts for SCM competency have significantly higher Z‐scores than their close competitors and industry averages.     

Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics

This paper argues that time-series econometrics provides valuable tools and opens exciting research opportunities to marketing researchers. It allows marketing researchers to advance traditional modeling and estimation approaches by incorporating dynamic processes to answer new important research questions. The authors discuss the challenges facing time-series modelers in marketing, provide an overview of recent methodological developments and several applications, and highlight fruitful areas for future research. This discussion is based on the First Annual Conference on Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA on September 16–17, 2004.Insights from the First Annual Conference, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Comparing Big Givers and Small Givers: Financial Correlates of Corporate Philanthropy

In a departure from the traditional studies of corporate philanthropy that focus on board composition, advertising, and social networks, the authors investigate the financial correlates of corporate philanthropy. The research design controls for firm size and industry while observing firms from a variety of industries. The sample contains matched pairs of generous and less generous corporate givers. The authors find, as hypothesized, a positive relationship between a firm's cash resources available and cash donations, but no significant relationship between corporate philanthropy and firm financial performance, regardless of whether corporate philanthropy is measured as cash payouts or the aggregate contributions that charities actually receive, and regardless of whether financial performance is gauged using accounting measures or market measures. Whereas the link between available resources and corporate philanthropy is well accepted in the literature on corporate social responsibility, it has been rarely tested and never so definitively found as in this research.     

Exchange rate effects: A case study of the export performance of the Swiss agriculture and food sector

The Swiss franc appreciated strongly against the currencies of Switzerland's most important trading partners after the global financial crisis in 2008. This has raised the question of how sensitive Swiss exports are with respect to exchange rate movements. We analyse this question for exports of the Swiss agriculture and food sector, using both time series and dynamic panel data models based on data from 1999 to 2012. We find that in the long run a one per cent appreciation of the Swiss franc leads on average to a decrease in exports of agricultural and food products between 0.8 and 0.9 per cent. Our results suggest that on average, producers in the Swiss agriculture and food sector are able to successfully avoid price competition by differentiating their products, producing high‐quality products for niche markets.     

Are consumers' financial needs and values common across cultures? Evidence from six countries

Are consumers' financial needs, and financial values, the same or different across cultures? Two studies, with student (Study 1; n = 988) and non‐student (Study 2; n = 959) participants, explore the extent of equivalence, across six countries (Brazil, Russia, China, Taiwan, Tunisia and US), in financial need belief, and financial value, measurement models. The financial need beliefs, derived from self‐determination theory (SDT) principles, include financial self‐efficacy, financial autonomy, financial community trust and support; the financial values include materialism and financial altruism. Both the financial need and financial value constructs evidence configural invariance (similar factor structure), and factor invariance among student but not non‐student samples. The financial need constructs evidence full, and the financial value constructs evidence partial, metric (factor loading) invariance. Factor covariance invariance obtains for the financial need beliefs constructs but not the financial value constructs. Finally, neither financial need nor financial value constructs evidence scalar (intercept) invariance. These results provide partial support for extending SDT's hypothesis of universal human needs to the financial domain. In contrast, the financial value constructs of altruism and materialism are largely instable across cultures, suggesting that consumer views of giving, and the role of wealth in social status, differ between countries.     

Corporate Ethical Identity as a Determinant of Firm Performance: A Test of the Mediating Role of Stakeholder Satisfaction

In this article, we empirically assess the impact of corporate ethical identity (CEI) on a firm’s financial performance. Drawing on formulations of normative and instrumental stakeholder theory, we argue that firms with a strong ethical identity achieve a greater degree of stakeholder satisfaction (SS), which, in turn, positively influences a firm’s financial performance. We analyze two dimensions of the CEI of firms: corporate revealed ethics and corporate applied ethics. Our results indicate that revealed ethics has informational worth and enhances shareholder value, whereas applied ethics has a positive impact through the improvement of SS. However, revealed ethics by itself (i.e. decoupled from ethical initiatives) is not sufficient to boost economic performance. Pascual Berrone is a PhD candidate of the Business Administration and Quantitative Methods Ph.D. program at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. His current research interests focus on business ethics, stakeholder theory, and various aspects of the interface between corporate governance mechanisms and corporate social responsibility. His interests also include ethical, environmental and social issues and their impact on firms' overall performance. Dr. Jordi Surroca is an Assistant Professor of Management at the Department of Business Administration at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. He holds a PhD in Business Administration and a Licentiate Degree in Business and Economics from Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. His research interests center on stakeholder management, firm strategy, innovation, and corporate governance. Dr. Josep A. Tribó is Associate Professor of Finance in the Department of Business Administration at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. He has a PhD in Economic Analysis from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and a Licenciate Degree in Theoretical Physics by Universitat de Barcelona. His research interests are Corporate Finance and the financing of R&D. His work has been published in journals such as Applied Economics, International Journal of Production Economics.     

How Can a Ratings-based Method for Assessing Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Provide an Incentive to Firms Excluded from Socially Responsible Investment Indices to Invest in CSR?

Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) indices play a major role in the stock markets. A connection between doing good and doing well in business is implied. Leading indices, such as the Domini Social Index and others, exemplify the movement toward investing in socially responsible corporations. However, the question remains: Does the ratings-based methodology for assessing corporate social responsibility (CSR) provide an incentive to firms excluded from SRI indices to invest in CSR? Not in its current format. The ratings-based methodology employed by SRI indices in their selection processes excludes many corporations by creating limited-membership lists. This received ratings-based structure is yet to offer an incentive for most of the excluded corporations to invest in improving their levels of CSR. We, therefore, ask under what circumstances a ratings-based method for assessing CSR could provide an incentive to firms excluded from SRI indices to invest in CSR. In this article, we attempt to offer a theoretical reply to this question. We show that when all firms are publicly ranked according to SRI index parameters, such indices can indeed create a market incentive for increased investment by firms in improving their performance in the area of social responsibility. We further show that this incentive tapers off as the amount of investment required exceeds a certain point or if the amount of payback on that investment fails to reach a certain threshold.