The European Systemic Risk Board – governance and early experience

ABSTRACT

The European Systemic Risk Board is charged with the macroprudential oversight of the financial system in the European Union. We compare and contrast the ESRB with the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, which some scholars proposed as a role model for systemic risk management. There are parallels and some differences between these organisations. Neither institution has direct regulatory power, which could paradoxically be beneficial as it may help preserve their independence and objectivity in the long run. We also review the ESRB’s activities after it started in 2010 and assess the effect of its first public recommendation.     

The Analysis and Assessment of the Creation Investment Risk in the High and New Technology, Enterprise

The creation risk investmentof the high and new technology enterprise isthe way to finance：and invest for the business period. After we putting the capital into the high and new. technology project.that is in the devetopment stage, the enterprise can, acquire high, increase, by the. support and assistance ＇of, the. capital and management. After the enterprise grew up, it can achieve high benefits by selling stock, attorning the enterprise, and dealing property rights, etc. Finally it secedes form the enterprise invested. The purpose of total analysis in the respective stage for the business investment cause including cause prosperities, object, risk, is to comprehensively understand the effect on the anticipation ratio of the benefit, investment distribution, the stock property proportion which is offered by the activity content, and the emphasis of the assessment in the respective stages of the creation risk investment cause.     

The Research Mode Concerning with Chinese Enterprises Dynamic Strategic Alliances and Risk Defenses

China enterprises should develop dynamic strategic alliances if they want to participate in global contests and share strategic targets of global resources. The effective risk defenses system must be set up to make dynamic strategic alliances run successfully. This paper puts forward a mode of risk defenses internal system through analyzing the facts of China enterprises dynamic strategic alliances＇ creative models.     

China＇s Early Warning Model of Financial Risk and an Empirical Analysis

在系统学习国内外现有金融风险预警模型的基础上,结合我国经济金融运行实情,构建符合中国国情的金融风险预警模型。通过对模型的预测能力进行检验,可以对未来我国金融风险进行全面预警判断和实时预警分析,从而为构建金融风险预警系统提供判别基准。     

New Basle Capital Agreement and Risk Management of China＇s Banking Industry

Adjustment of Basle Capital Agreement will influence the risk management and capital arrangement demand of the banks with different scales, operation level and environment. It will have widespread and profound effect on the competition strength of every country＇s banks in the global market. Starting with illustration of the present cond（tion of risk management in China＇s banks, the paper analyzes the major problems existing in the risk management system of China＇s banking industry, then puts forward some clues and suggestions to improve and better the risk management system of China＇s banking industry.     

Investigation of Enterprise Informationization Project Risk

The enterprise informationization （El） project has already become modernization level and synthesis power of the enterprise. However, information project risk. In order to reduce the El project risk, it is necessary to adopt reasonable incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment. an urgent work to raise the asymmetry increases the EI investment mode, to carry on incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment.     

Idiosyncratic Risk in the United States and Sweden: Is There a Role for Government Insurance?

We examine the effects of government redistribution schemes in an economy where agents are subject to uninsurable, individual specific productivity risk. In particular, we consider the trade-off between positive insurance effects and negative distortions on labor supply and saving. We parameterize the model by estimating productivity processes on Swedish and U.S. data. The estimation results show that agents in the United States are subject to more idiosyncratic risk than agents in Sweden. Although distortions are significant, the welfare benefits of government redistribution and insurance systems can be substantial. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E20, H21.     

The Evaluating Method of Technology Innovation Risk

The thesis analyzes risk factors of enterprise＇s technology innovation, adopts the undetermined measuring model to evaluate technology innovation risk and testifies it through an example.     

The Effect of Regulatory and Risk Management Advancement on Non-Performing Loans in European Banking, 2000–2011

We study whether the implementation of advanced risk management techniques in compliance with the internal ratings-based (IRB) approaches in the Basel Capital Accord reduced non-performing loans (NPLs) and, hence, had a significant impact in controlling credit risk in emerging and advanced European banks during 2000–2011. Our analysis reveals that there exists wide variation in terms of adoption of such advanced techniques across European banks. Emerging Europe, which suffered the most from the surge in NPLs in the post-crisis period, lags significantly behind the Eurozone economies in terms of the intensity of IRB adoption rates. We employ dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation methods in our panel regressions to investigate the effect of such regimes on the level of NPLs on a country level. Our findings confirm that the intensity of IRB usage within a banking system leads to a statistically significant decrease in the aggregate amount of NPLs in the post-crisis period, after controlling for macroeconomic and bank-specific characteristics of individual economies. This result is consistent with the view that the efficiency of credit risk management may turn out to be a critical factor in avoiding widespread banking distress and for improving the profitability and solvency of banking systems as a whole.     

Risk premia and the foreign exchange market: The European Monetary System versus the ‘rest of the world’

This paper presents a new test of the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. The possibility of investors' risk aversion is taken explicitly into account. The empirical work investigates proxies for various forms of risk over the period 1974(1)–1982(4) between the EMS and the ‘rest of the world’. Our results show that investors are sensitive to interest rate risk.     

“Fair go” for all? Wealth and Risk Aversion of Australian Households*

A mean‐variance framework is applied to Australian household financial portfolios in order to provide estimates of relative risk aversion in the economy. Controlling for various socio‐economic characteristics, we explore whether risk aversion heterogeneity is a function of wealth heterogeneity. In contrast to most studies, we find evidence of very high risk aversion amongst the majority of households of poor households but vastly lower risk aversion amongst the high percentiles in the wealth distribution. Applying a first differences model across three survey waves spanning 2002 to 2010, we find that risk tolerance increases significantly with wealth. Risk tolerance is positively associated with mortgage payments, but rental payments have no relationship. In addition, we found no evidence that holding a university education has any discernible impact on risk aversion. Lastly, we present some preliminary findings as to the impact of financial advice on observed risk aversion. Financial advice is found to accentuating risk aversion, particularly amongst the wealthiest households. The findings have potential implications for the distribution of wealth in Australia that has received renewed interest recently.     

A Research on the Online Bank＇s Risk

Bank＇s business has taken many changes with the development of computer technology and economic globalization, and has faced fierce competition. Effectively countering such challenge and making profit has been the main task for the bank to survive and develop. Online bank as a new business entity, compared with the entity bank, has its own character and virtual effect that causes online bank＇s business activity totally different from common sense, which produces many new risks which never encounter in real condition. Based on the analysis of the risks online bank facing when doing business on the net, this paper brings forward to some advice on how to perfect online bank＇s business activity and improve transaction efficiency.     

The Effects of Competition on Banks’ Risk Taking

We consider the joint effect of competition and deposit insurance on risk taking by banks when bank risk is unobservable to depositors. It turns out that the magnitude of risk taking depends on the structure and side of the market in which competition takes place. If the bank is a monopoly or banks are competing only in the loan market, deposit insurance has no effect on risk taking. Banks in this situation tend to take risk, although extreme risk taking is avoided. In contrast, introducing deposit insurance increases risk taking if banks are competing for deposits. Then, deposit rates become excessively high, thereby forcing banks to take extreme risks.     

The Research on Establishing Construction Risk System in China

Through the analysis of our country＇s present construction risk management, the paper points out that the construction risk management system should be established on the construction insurance and guarantee, then puts forwards detailed countermeasures from six aspects, which consist of basic contents of establishing the construction insurance and guarantee system, issuing related laws which will speed up the implementing of the system, expediting the development of the agencies and market entities of the construction insurance and guarantee, establishing associations of the construction insurance and guarantee, enhancing government＇s support of imolementing the system.     

China’s Macroeconomic Outlook and Risk Assessment: Counterfactual Analysis,Policy Simulation,and Long-Term Governance — A Summary of Annual Report (2015–2016)

This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China’s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% (5.5% using more reliable instead of official data) in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including: lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with excess capacity\capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the “New Normal.” A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in China’s transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda.     

Does Living Alone Confer a Higher Risk of Hospitalisation?

The rise in one‐person households is a worldwide trend. This means that informal care is less available, particularly for elderly people, with important implications for health‐care utilisation and health expenditure. This paper uses a two‐part model to examine the relationship between living alone and hospitalisations in Australia in terms of both the likelihood and the length of hospitalisation. The results show living alone increases the probability of hospitalisation by 2.9 percentage points and length of stay by 3.8 days for people aged 45 and above. Further analysis indicates that these impacts depend on the length of living alone. Additionally, the probability and the length of hospitalisation vary depending on whether the cause of living alone is separation/divorce, widowhood or never having married.     

The Study on Integrated Risk Management of Chinese Commercial Banks

Integrated risk management becomes gradually mainstream in worldwide. With China being a member of WTO, it put forward a higher requirement for risk management of Chinese commercial banks. So, it＇s of theoretical and practical meaning to study the integrated risk management of Chinese commercial banks. Under the guidance of integrated risk management, it pointed out the identification scope, analysis methods and systematic control strategies of risk management in Chinese commercial banks.     

Customer Asset Risk Discernment of E-commerce Enterprises Based on Case-based Reasoning

In the Internet economy of the twentieth century, the competition for customers between enterprises is stiffer so that they strive for customers by all means. As a kind of new thing in the Internet economy, E-commerce can attract customers and expand sales efficiently; therefore, E-commerce becomes a powerful means by which enterprises can improve customer asset rapidly. However, compared with customer asset of traditional commerce enterprises, E-commerce enterprises customer asset is more liable to be affected by the surroundings, which will result in risk. On the other hand, though enterprises pay close attention to the study of customer asset risk of E-commerce enterprises currently, the academic circles have made little research in this respect, which is not helpful for enterprises to improve customer asset by applying for E-commerce, nor can meet the actual requirement for the development of academic circles. Therefore, the customer asset risk discernment of E-commerce enterprises has been studied in this paper, and case-based reasoning（CBR） has been applied to the discernment of the customer asset risk of E-commerce enterprise, which provides quantitative basis for customer asset risk management of E-commerce enterprises and conduces to the prevention of customer asset risk and the efficiency improvement of E-commerce.     

How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?

This paper studies the role of political factors for determining the impact of banking sector distress on sovereign bond yield spreads for a sample of 19 emerging market economies in the period 1994–2013. Using interaction models, I find that the adverse impact of banking sector distress on sovereign solvency is less pronounced for countries with a high degree of political stability, a high level of power sharing within the government coalition, a low level of political constraint within the political system, and for countries run by powerful and effective governments. The electoral cycle pronounces the bank risk–sovereign risk transfer.