地权稳定与农业生产

本文以《农村土地承包法》在省一级层面的实施作为政策冲击,研究稳定的农村土地承包经营权对农业生产效率等的影响及其作用机制。主要研究结论如下:第一,稳定的农地承包经营权能够增强经营主体对未来的确定性预期,保障各方市场主体的合法权益,活跃土地流转并有效提升农业生产效率;第二,《农村土地承包法》的实施促进了农户转出而非转入土地,农业生产效率提升主要源自稳定产权的直接激励效应以及由此带来的资源配置效率改进,稳定的农地产权能够促进土地有效流转,优化农户农业生产与劳动配置决策;第三,地权稳定性改革有效缓解了因人口流出与区位劣势造成的农业生产效率损失,显著提高了农户的务工收入以及整体收入水平。本文研究结论表明,合理的制度设计能够提升农业生产效率,提高农村土地和劳动力资源的配置效率。清晰的产权设计、合理的预期管理是实现市场化资源配置的必要条件。     

Scenario-based approach in dealing with climate change impacts in Central Tanzania

Climate variability and change continue to be a threat to Africa’s agro-ecosystems. This is anticipated to have a multitude of immediate and long-term impacts on sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources of the present study attempts to establish the potential benefit of integrating local stakeholders’ knowledge into climate scenarios. Specifically, the study sought to tap into the expertise and perspectives of locally important stakeholders in the potentially sensitive Wami/Ruvu River catchment of Tanzania. Participatory scenario planning was used to explore sectors sensitive to climate variability and change. This included 84 selected smallholder farmers and their leaders spread across six villages within the catchment. Quantitative household surveys were conducted across 199 households and Supplementary information sourced from regional statistics. The survey indicates that farmers project that land and agricultural productivity and water resources will be affected by climate change. From the participatory approach adopted for the study, thematic scenario categories featuring land and water resource-use and management and farm productivity were developed. The research found scenario analysis as a useful tool in development planning, as it incorporates interacting risks and uncertainties. If adopted by local farmers, leaders, regional institutional frameworks and policy makers, the tool has the potential to improve responsiveness to changes and risks through its collaborative management approach. This study demonstrates the need for sustainable water use and management systems and land use and farming practices that will increase crop productivity and resilience to climate variability and change.     

Land Acquisition,Labor Allocation,and Income Growth of Farm Households

This article investigates how land acquisition during urbanization affects labor allocation decisions of farm households in China. We develop an agricultural household model by including land acquisition to examine its impacts on nonfarm labor participation and income. Two data sets (self-designed household surveys at Xingwen County in 2012 and the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data covering 29 provinces in 2013) are adopted for empirical analysis. The results find that land reduction has significantly positive effects on the probability and the share of family nonfarm labor allocation from both data sets. We also find that land acquisition increases the household income of the land acquisition group in CHFS data.     

证券支持黑龙江、吉林两省西部地区农业机械合作社建立的可行性分析

随着我国人口红利逐年下降和城镇化进程不断加快,中国农村地区农业人口老龄化问题日渐突出,如不及时解决农村劳动力缺失的问题,十年之后中国粮食安全将难以保障。农业生产机械化是我国农业升级最为基础的部分,其高效的生产力可有效补充中国农村出现的劳动力缺口。但是我国耕地所属散乱,极不利于大型农机作业,只有将各户土地集中使用,才能解决我国农业生产机械化最棘手的问题。本文以东北西部地区为样本剖析农业机械化生产的收益构成,研究农村合并耕地成立农业机械合作社的可行性。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的证券化理论,结合东北地区实际情况,首创的提出利用证券市场加速我国农业升级的构想。     

对全国产粮大县土地规模经营情况的调查——以吉林省榆树市为例

吉林省榆树市素有＂天下第一粮仓＂美誉,连续十年被评为＂全国粮食生产先进县（市）标兵＂。近年来,榆树市土地流转力度加大,规模经营呈快速发展态势,各种合作模式相继出现,成为农村生产力发展的重要推力和农民增收致富的有效途径。人民银行榆树市支行调查显示：榆树市土地规模经营涉及农、牧、副、渔等多个领域,普遍取得良好效果,但在政策执行、资金投入和抵抗风险等方面依然存在问题,需要多方合力协调解决。     

农地经营权集中模式的减贫效应研究

我国细碎化的耕地经营模式已难以为继,亟待探索农地集中新模式。本文以河南省周口市为例,从减贫效应方面对六种农地经营权集中模式进行了比较,发现土地流出的带动作用和流入方的经营规模、劳动密集程度呈正相关;农地流转的稳定程度对非农业就业有较大影响,流转时间越长、流入方经营越稳定,非农就业受农业的影响越小;贫困户扩大农业经营规模,进而脱贫的主要途径是农户间自发流转。据此提出了因地制宜选择农地经营权的集中模式、加大对农民培训力度、构建金融支持体系和建立城乡一体化社保网等建议。     

Taxes and stabilization in contemporary macroeconomic models

The role of proportional and procyclic labor income taxes for automatic stabilization with stochastic productivity is analyzed in a contemporary macroeconomic model based on imperfect competition. The importance of short-run nominal wage rigidity for the effectiveness of progressive taxes on labor income for stabilizing output and raising household welfare is examined in a model that yields complete analytical solutions with stochastic output shocks. Increasing the procyclicity of labor income tax rates raises welfare with and without rigid nominal wages in the model economy. With fully flexible prices and wages, a positive covariance between the distortionary tax rate and productivity reduces the volatility of production and employment. This effect disappears under nominal wage rigidity, although progressive taxation can still raise welfare by reducing the distortion caused by a proportional labor tax. With rigid nominal wages and flexible consumer goods prices, payroll taxes levied at rates that rise with output can serve as automatic stabilizers. JEL Code E62 · H20     

Is Land Titling in Sub-Saharan Africa Cost-Effective? Evidence from Madagascar

Formalizing land rights has been promoted as a way to encourageagricultural investment and stimulate land markets, yet littleis known about the benefits of such policies in Sub-SaharanAfrica, where the preconditions for success are less favorable.The analysis uses a large sample of plots from an intensivelytitled rice-growing area of Madagascar and compares land-specificinvestments, land productivity, and land values for titled anduntitled plots cultivated by the same household. Having a titlehas no significant effect on plot-specific investment and correspondinglylittle effect on land productivity and land values. These resultsare broadly consistent with a simulation of a theoretical modelof investment under expropriation risk calibrated to the samedata. A cost–benefit analysis suggests that the currentsystem of formal titling should not be extended in rural Madagascarand that any new system of land registration would have to bequite inexpensive to be worthwhile.     

Risk perceptions,preferences and management strategies: evidence from a case study using German livestock farmers

We analyze the factors affecting farmers’ choice accounting for farm, farmer, and household characteristics as well as elicited risk perception and risk preferences. We consider three alternative hypothetical methods for assessing risk preferences to test the stability and behavioral validity of them. Our case study focuses on livestock farmers in the German region North Rhine-Westphalia. We find that risk preferences are context depending, i.e. differ across different fields of farm-level decision-making. Furthermore, our analysis shows that risk-averse farmers are more likely to prioritize on-farm risk management strategies over off-farm strategies. Moreover, higher risk perception, age, subjective numeracy, farm succession, farm size, and the proportion of rented land show a significant impact on farmers’ risk behavior     

Taxes, transfers and employment in an incomplete markets model

The consequences of increases in the scale of tax and transfer programs are assessed in the context of a model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and incomplete markets. The effects are contrasted with those obtained in a stand-in household model featuring no idiosyncratic shocks and complete markets. The main finding is that the impact on hours remains very large, but the welfare consequences are very different. The analysis also suggests that tax and transfer policies have large effects on average labor productivity via selection effects on employment.     

农村土地信托流转对中国粮食生产的影响研究——基于湖南省益阳市案例的分析

依据湖南省益阳市案例,从科学技术、自然条件以及人口经济政策等方面,考量农村土地信托流转对粮食生产的影响.结果表明:农村土地信托流转有利于促进粮食生产的机械化和规模化,加速农村劳动力转移.因此,应引导农民树立正确的从业观念,研究新型粮食生产大户补贴政策,以充分发挥政策效应.     

我国农村剩余劳动力转移途径及对策选择

我国农村剩余劳动力转移是解决三农问题的重中之重.现行土地制度、户籍管理制度、城市化进程以及农村剩余劳动力素质是制约农村剩余劳动力转移的主要因素.农村剩余劳动力在第一产业内部的转移和劳动力向二、三产业的转移,是我国农村劳动力转移的基本途径.坚持走农业产业化道路、推进乡镇企业二次创业、完善农村金融体系、推进城市化进程、建立和完善社会保障体系等,是推动农村劳动力转移的必然选择.     

Incentives, redistribution and social insurance

We extend the familiar income taxation model à la Mirrlees, so as to include income uncertainty, due for instance to a risk of illness. Following a line of research initiated by Blomqvist and Horn [1984] we prove that the existence of a Social Health Insurance system may be justified even when the insurance market is efficient. Moreover, if there is a negative statistical dependence between probability of illness and labor productivity, then the optimum of a Utilitarianist Social Welfare function implies that Social Insurance provides a complete coverage for every household.     

Effects of Asymmetric Adjustment Among Labor Productivity,Labor Demand,and Exchange Rate Using Threshold Cointegration Test

This paper investigates the asymmetric equilibrium relationship among labor productivity, labor demand, and the exchange rate in Taiwan's manufacturing industry using a threshold cointegration test that allows asymmetric adjustment. The findings show that there is a temporal delay in the reaction of labor demand to change in labor productivity, and vice versa. However, a temporal impact of exchange rate shock on labor demand and labor productivity is statistically unobvious. A trade-off between productivity growth and employment growth is not found.     

养老保险"碎片化"的成因分析与应对策略

养老保险的碎片化,衍生出养老保险待遇不公平、制度运行不经济、基金收支不可持续以及转移接续困难等问题,对经济社会发展带来诸多不利影响.养老保险制度渐进式发展的道路,城乡经济社会发展的二元格局,养老保险制度设计的缺陷,以及群体利益和地区利益的存在,是导致我国养老保险碎片化的成因.我国应加快推进养老保险制度的有机整合,推进城...     

统筹城乡发展中的农地金融问题探析

改革开放以来掀起的农村金融体制改革和以土地家庭联产承包经营制为主要内容的农村土地制度改革,对促进我国农业、农村和农民的发展功不可没,但也存在一些制约城乡一体化建设的问题。在统筹城乡发展过程中,一方面要深化农村金融体制改革,构建多元化农村金融体系,加快农地制度改革,健全农地经营权流转体系;另一方面还应将农村土地制度与农村金融制度二者的改革与创新相互结合、相互统一,发展农地金融业务,积极探索具有创新意义的地票交易、农地承包权证券化等多样化农地金融产品。     

劳动力流动与中国农村居民消费结构——基于LAIDS模型的实证研究

使用1992~2011年的时间序列数据,采用线性几乎理想需求系统模型(LAIDS),重点检验了劳动力流动对农村居民消费结构的影响。研究发现,劳动力流动会使衣着、文教娱乐及服务、医疗消费有所增加,会减少食品、居住消费,对家用几乎没有影响。为此,应增加工资性收入,完善劳动力流动政策和供给结构。     

Ramsey meets Thünen: the impact of land taxes on economic development and land conservation

Land taxes can increase production in the manufacturing sector and enhance land conservation at the same time, which can lead to overall macroeconomic growth. Existing research emphasizes the non-distorting properties of land taxes (when fixed factors are taxed) as well as growth-enhancing impacts (when asset portfolios are shifted to reproducible capital). This paper furthers the neoclassical perspective on land taxes by endogenizing land allocation decisions in a multi-sector growth model. Based on von Thünen’s observation, agricultural land is created from wilderness through conversion and cultivation, both of which are associated with costs. In the steady state of our general equilibrium model, land taxes not only may reduce land consumption (associated with environmental benefits) but may also affect overall economic output, while leaving wages and interest rates unaffected. When labor productivity is higher in the manufacturing than in the agricultural sector and agricultural and manufactured goods are substitutes (or the economy is open to world trade), land taxes increase aggregate economic output. There is a complex interplay of conservation policy, technological change and land taxes, depending on consumer preferences, sectoral labor productivities and openness-to-trade. Our model introduces a new perspective on land taxes in current policy debates on development, tax reforms as well as forest conservation.     

Investigating the drivers of innovation diffusion in a low income country context. The case of adoption of improved maize seed in Malawi

To match the rapidly changing demand for food to its supply, agricultural productivity needs to be increased. The adoption of improved agricultural technologies is therefore crucial for sustainable agricultural development. In this paper we investigate the adoption dynamics of improved seed by farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers’ expectation is found to be a particularly important element in defining the adoption decision process. The aim of this study is to assess ways to stimulate future expectation. Using survey data from Malawi, we examine the role of expectation in the decision-making process of farmers adopting improved seed. We use these data in a dynamic simulation model to assess historical seed adoption patterns in Malawi and examine how counterfeit seed and branding affect farmers expectations and adoption. The simulation model shows that the presence of counterfeit seed on the market can affect adoption considerably. Our analysis demonstrates, that branding has contributed to seed adoption in Malawi, confirming that it can further stimulate demand of improved seed.     

THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF SOIL CONSERVATION: THE FARMERS' VIEWPOINT

Most countries in Central America and the Caribbean depend heavilyon agriculture; efforts to sustain and improve the sector'sproductivity are therefore crucial to the region's economicdevelopment and to the welfare of its people. Land degradationis thought to pose a severe threat to the sustainability ofagricultural production. Yet despite long-standing concern aboutthis threat and dramatic claims of environmental damage, surprisinglylittle empirical analysis has been done on the causes and severityof land degradation problems in the region and on how best totackle them. Meanwhile, many of the conservation programs designedto address the problems have fallen short of expectations. Oftenfarmers have not adopted the recommended conservation practicesor have abandoned them once the project ended. The research presented in this article attempts to bridge theempirical gap, using cost-benefit analysis to investigate thenature and severity of the soil degradation problem and to assessthe cost-effectiveness of proposed solutions. Because soil degradationproblems tend to be site-specific, the analysis is rooted incase studies, and because conservation programs stand or fallon the participation of farmers, the study's main focus is onthe profitability of the measures and the deterrents to theiradoption from the farmers' point of view.