Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises

Recent debate on the reform of the international financial architecture has highlighted the potentially important role of the official sector in crisis management. We examine how such public intervention in sovereign debt crises affects efficiency, ex ante and ex post. Our results shed light on the scale of capital inflows and the implications for debtor country output of such a regime. The efficacy of measures such as officially sanctioned stays on creditor litigation depend critically on the quality of public sector surveillance and the size of the costs of sovereign debt crises.     

Debt source choices and stock market performance of Russian firms during the financial crisis

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and the sources of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008. In particular, using data on large-capitalization Russian firms, we investigate whether dependence on either bank debt or bonds affected stock returns during the credit crunch. Our results indicate that the firms which rely entirely on bank debt significantly outperformed the firms with public debt amidst the crisis. This finding suggests that bank debt may be particularly valuable in harsh times. However, we also document that the stock prices of the bank dependent firms recovered more slowly in the post-crisis period.     

External Public Debt,Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis

Against the backdrop of the contagion literature, the paper analyses the impact of financial and trade linkages on sovereign bond spreads in the Eurozone crisis. Using quarterly data for a sample of EMU countries during the period 2000–13, we estimate fixed‐effect panel models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors that are robust to general forms of spatial and temporal dependence. Our main results can be summarised as follows: first, we suggest that the ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflow towards the peripheral sovereign debt triggered a re‐segmentation of financial markets and economic systems along national borders, with negative implications for risk‐sharing and the efficient allocation of capital. The ‘home bias’ effect – that is the increase in the share of sovereign debt held by domestic banks – worsened the country‐specific risk because the twin crisis (sovereign and banking) began to be conceived as more closely intertwined within countries than before. Second, the structure of international trade helps to account for the geographic scope of contagion, even after controlling for macroeconomic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Finally, the ‘substitution effect’ of public debt securities of stand‐alone emerging countries has affected more the sovereign spreads in the core than in the periphery.     

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi‐factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis sub‐period. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers' risk aversion.     

欧洲主权债务危机及其影响

2010年2月初以来,随着美国次贷危机对各国经济的影响逐步消退、世界经济复苏越来越明显,欧洲主权债务危机开始进入人们的视野,国际金融市场出现震荡。欧洲主权债务危机对我国的影响主要是间接性的汇率风险,即我国巨额外汇储备中欧元部分的趋势性贬值风险。但是,我国应未雨绸缪,提早做好准备,主动积极应对欧洲主权债务危机。     

Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis

This paper aims to identify the main determinants of sovereign bond spreads in seven Latin American countries and verify the existence of contagion effect over these markets during the last financial crisis. We apply a panel data framework and find that the inflation, terms of trade ratio and the external debt and international reserves (both as percentage of GDP) are key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Moreover, we test the crisis impact over emerging economies. Our results show that the crisis has a statistically significant impact on the EMBIG spreads since 2008.     

What Can the Developed World Learn from the Latin American Debt and Mexican Peso Crisis?

The global financial crisis of 2007–08 resulted from massive institutional failure and proved that a robust regulatory and supervisory frameworks are necessary. Such frameworks are not yet in place. This paper recounts the legacy of the financial crisis in the sovereign debt crisis in Greece as of September 2011. It then turns to comparing the current situation to those of Latin America, and especially Mexico, in the 1980s. It describes what was done to recover in Latin America and what lessons can and cannot be learned from those experiences in acting to assist the countries of the European Union threatened with sovereign debt default.     

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。     

What can sector accounts tell about the financial crisis?

The current sovereign debt crisis is widely believed to have been caused by insufficient budget discipline. However, the financial sector accounts reveal that public as well as private borrowing in the euro area was dwarfed by the synchronised explosion of assets and liabilities of financial corporations. The paper suggests that the current concentration on a speedy cutback of public debt is premature at best. Policy should pay more attention to the main causes of the crisis: the excesses of the financial sector and the flaws in the design of the heterogeneous currency union.     

金融危机和欧债危机对我国进出口贸易的冲击效应——基于含结构变化的单位根检验

本文对2005年以来我国的外贸实际进出口额进行了含结构变化的单位根检验。检验结果显示,我国实际进出口增长受金融危机和欧债危机影响,发生了显著的结构变化;且我国实际进出口贸易额是分阶段的趋势平稳过程,而非一阶单位根过程。从冲击效果来看,金融危机后我国进出口贸易的结构性变化表现为贸易额的短期下降和贸易增长趋势的加速恢复。欧债危机后我国进出口贸易的结构性变化表现为贸易额的瞬时性下降和贸易增长趋势的下降。     

Debt developments and fiscal adjustment in the EU

Since the financial crisis in 2008–09, concern over the sustainability of some EU countries’ sovereign debt has continued to mount higher and higher. This paper explores the ways in which the financial crisis caused the deterioration of European debt-to-GDP ratios, examines which countries are on sustainable debt paths and quantifies the fiscal adjustment required per country for debt sustainability.     

Fighting debt explosion in the European sovereign debt crisis

A number of tools have been suggested for solving the European sovereign debt crisis, in particular the options of leveraging the EFSF/ESM, introducing Eurobonds and a European Troubled Asset Relief Programme (Euro-TARP). However, it is unclear how these instruments will work, given jittery financial markets, the pending sovereign default of Greece and the fear of contagion among other countries. In the following paper, these policy tools will be analysed and evaluated with respect to their effects as well as their potential power to solve the debt crisis.     

Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis

We compare sovereign bond spreads during the international financial crisis across groups drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score matching to select a non-crisis sample for comparison with the crisis sample that is more robust to exogenous crisis dating. We find minimal changes over the crisis period in the average spreads of local-currency-denominated emerging market bonds. In contrast, the spreads of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds increased by large amounts and were subject to sovereign risk contagion.     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

危机冲击、会计稳健性与债务资源配置

针对有关会计稳健性是否应作为一项会计信息质量特征的理论争议,文章从决策有用性的财务会计基本目标出发,以2008年金融危机为冲击事件实证检验了在危机环境中会计稳健性对债务资源配置的影响。结果表明与危机前相比,在金融危机期间会计稳健性不仅能引导债务资源的配置方向,而且能显著提高债务资源的配置效率。同时在考虑到我国特殊产权制度因素后进一步研究发现,相对于国有企业,稳健性对债务资源配置的影响在民营企业中表现得更加显著。文章研究从债务资源配置方向和配置效率两方面丰富了会计稳健性的债务契约理论,支持了会计稳健性作为一项会计信息质量特征的必要性,也对银行等金融机构的债务资源配置决策具有重要指导意义。     

欧债危机背景下中国对欧盟直接投资问题研究

近年来,中国对欧盟的直接投资出现了爆发式增长。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发及持续蔓延,引发了对全球经济"二次探底"的担忧,也给中国对欧盟直接投资带来了新的问题。本文在实证分析的基础上,认为中国对欧投资的超常增长并不是金融危机以来才发生的;欧债危机虽给中国企业对欧投资提供了机遇,但也带来了更多的障碍和风险。因此,要继续扩大对欧直接投资,就必须正确认识中国对欧盟直接投资的战略意义,厘清存在的障碍和风险,从而有针对性地对欧盟内部不同的区域市场和行业进行直接投资。     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile

By studying the behavior of foreign currency borrowing, maturity, sales and the investment decisions of firms listed in the Chilean Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2001, this paper assesses whether in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s the depreciation of the local currency (Chilean peso) affected these firms’ real and financial decisions. At issue is the contrast between a negative net-worth effect and a potential expansionary competitiveness effect for the tradable sector. We find that there exists little evidence that devaluations cause a positive impact on investment and sales for firms with dollar denominated debt. The maturity structure of Chilean firms is mainly explained by the size of the companies. Large firms will have a debt structure biased to higher maturities. Analyzing dollar denominated debt composition the evidence shows that larger firms maintained a higher proportion of dollar denominated debt reflecting the development of the financial sector in Chile.     

欧洲主权债务危机及其对中欧贸易的影响研究

随着希腊主权债务危机的爆发,整个欧元区乃至全球又一次地笼罩在经济危机的阴影下。由于欧元体制等问题,使得希腊的债务危机逐渐演变成为欧元区债务危机,其对全球金融市场和主要经济体都产生了重大的影响。本文首先阐述欧债危机产生的背景和原因,进而分析欧债危机对中欧贸易的主要影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

Services trade and credit frictions: Evidence with matched bank–firm data

The effects of credit supply shocks on the exports of services are not clear a priori. On the one hand, services need lower initial investment in physical capital than manufacturing. On the other hand, competitiveness for exporting services requires investments in intangible capital and in product customisation that may be subject to credit frictions. Using Italian matched bank–firm data and focusing on the sovereign debt crisis, we find an elasticity of services exports to credit supply, between 0.3 and 0.4. The effects of credit shocks are especially relevant for firms exporting complex services to countries with weaker institutions and for services that are not the main product of the firms. Overall, our results suggest that credit supply plays a relevant role for exporting services during crises.     

Crisis challenges of small firms in Macao during the COVID-19 pandemic

This research develops a framework that combines crisis stages, stakeholder engagement, and crisis challenges. The framework is applied to small firms in Macao during the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic crisis. We conduct a qualitative study based on semi-structured interviews with the leaders of six small firms in Macao. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has turned into a “normal” context, which blurs the traditional crisis termination stage. We also find that participating firms engage more with internal stakeholders than external ones. The strategies adopted by small firms include flexible human resource (HR) practices, cost reduction, enhancing customer relations, and using government support schemes. These strategies are effective in the short term; firms need to pay attention to diversity and learning for the long term.