中国低碳农业生产方式的实现路径与评价

为应对因碳排放增加而造成的全球变暖问题,中国农业的应对措施和未来发展方向就是要大力发展低碳农业生产。以低碳农业发展为主线,按照逻辑顺序梳理和分析了研究和发展低碳农业迫切需要解决的几个问题。旨在明晰农业生产过程碳排放重点环节,从技术措施和制度条件两方面探寻实现低碳农业生产方式的路径,根据碳排放环节和影响碳排放的外界因素构建农业生产方式低碳化程度的评价指标体系,并分析影响低碳农业生产方式实现的因素。最后指出低碳农业研究在研究视角、研究方法、研究内容上需重点关注的问题和进一步研究的方向。     

发达地区休闲观光农业发展动力机制研究——以浙江省为例

休闲观光农业是经济发达时期为满足人们休闲观光需求,利用农业景观资源和生产条件,发展观光和休闲旅游的一种新型农业生产经营形态。本文结合浙江省休闲观光农业发展的实证研究,提出我国休闲观光农业的发展演化大体经历了三个阶段,即缓慢发展的初始阶段、加速发展的产业化阶段和提质增效的创意化阶段。近年来,休闲观光农业在全国尤其是发达地区的县镇和乡村得到了快速发展,成为农业经济新的发展模式和增长点。而随着休闲观光农业产业化发展的推进,其发展创意越来越重要,需要通过创新创意全面提升休闲观光农业的综合经济效益。而推动休闲观光农业由低级向高级演化的动力主要源于农业生产自身的不断进步、观光农业消费需求的不断提升、政府扶持政策的不断跟进、旅游交通体系的不断完善和关键制度变革的不断推进,各因子之间相互联系、相互影响,形成了系统的动力结构,共同推进休闲观光农业的持续、深入发展。     

山西农业经济发展战略——基于对气候资源的聚类分析

对山西省的农业生产环境进行评价分析,利用SPSS统计分析软件对气候资源进行聚类分析。并对市场需求、资源配置、资源开发利用进行认真研究,从而提出了发展山西农业的新对策。期望能在一定程度上推动山西农业生产,振兴山西经济,以努力寻求人口、资源、环境与经济的协调发展。     

湘西州农业投入产出模型分析与探讨

利用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数,以1995-2006年数据为基础,对湘西州农业生产的实际情况进行量化分析,以粮食产量为产出因子,选择化肥投入、机械总动力和有效灌溉面积为投入因子,利用LINEST计量经济软件建立投入产出模型。通过多元线性回归模型分析发现,相对化肥投入和机械动力的影响而言,从1995-2006年湘西州粮食产量大幅增加的主导影响因素依然是耕地面积,说明今后湘西州农业生产应做好耕地资源的开源与节流工作,重视农业科技和农业机械化发展,调整施肥方法提高肥料利用率及优化旅游资源,发展现代乡村观光农业。     

黄淮海平原农业水资源绿色效率时空差异与影响因素研究

提高农业水资源绿色效率对促进黄淮海平原农业可持续发展和保障粮食安全极其重要。通过超效率SBM模型和Tobit模型对黄淮海平原农业水资源绿色效率和其影响因素进行了研究。结果发现:黄淮海平原农业水资源绿色效率整体趋于上升且存在明显的地区差异;技术进步变化是导致农业水资源绿色效率变化的主要动因;除农作物种植结构外,经济发展水平、节水农业发展水平、供水结构等因素均对农业水资源绿色效率有着显著影响。基于以上结论,提出以绿色发展理念指导农业产业结构和用水结构升级、充分发挥节水潜力提高农业水资源绿色效率水平和完善水价水权市场机制优化农业水资源配置等对策建议。     

全球粮食危机背景下的埃及农业发展和中埃农业技术合作建议

农业在埃及经济社会发展中历来占据首要地位。在当今世界粮食短缺、粮价暴涨、发展中国家粮食安全受到严重威胁的特殊时刻,积极促进农业发展,努力增加粮食产量,是目前埃及政府面临的头等大事。本报告通过分析埃及现阶段的环境、地理和人口概况,以及埃及在全球粮食危机冲击下受到的诸多影响,阐述农业发展和粮食供应对于埃及的重要意义。通过研究埃及最新的农业发展情况和一些重要数据及指标,以及《埃及经济社会发展第六个“五年规划”2007—2012》中有关农业发展的若干政策,介绍埃及的农业技术研究体系和推广体系,结合我国科技援外总体战略,就未来中埃农业科技合作提出建议：探索以育种和种质资源合作、农业机械化技术合作、沙漠化治理、土壤改良及旱作农业作为重点领域;建议突出科技在中非农业合作中的重要性,强化培训、建立农业科技示范试点和规划农业战略基地。通过加强中埃及中非农业合作,推动我国农业国际化进程。     

智力资源的特性和内涵

智力资源是21世纪知识经济发展的决定性因素,应成为现代资源科学研究的新领域,这既是社会经济发展的需要,也是资源科学自身向前发展的必然。智力资源属于社会资源范畴,同时又是一种特殊的可再生资源和软资源,具有继承性、附着性、流动性、增殖性、时效性和不易度量性。根据智力资源特性与概念,比较分析了它与人力资源、信息资源、文化资源的区别和联系。     

广东发展农业生态旅游的条件和区域特征

本文对农业生态旅游的概念、意义、开发条件以及开发前景进行探讨,指出广东省发展农业生态旅游的区位优势、资源优势、农业特色优势和客源优势,并指出发展农业生态旅游有利于促进农村经济全面发展,是今后农业开发的一个方向,在发展广东农业生态旅游时应充分认识到农业旅游的区域性、自然性和季节性的特点,要在农业生产与旅游相结合的基础上,保持其自然景观和乡土气息,同时必须利用当地资源优势,合理布局,全面规划,突出区域性特色,避免重复布点,以促进农业和旅游业可持续发展。     

A coevolutionary model for promoting agricultural sustainability

This article presents a coevolutionary model of agricultural development that is based on observations from the environmental history of agriculture and the need for addressing development processes toward sustainability. It asserts that the challenge of agricultural sustainability can be fruitfully addressed within an analytical framework that consciously and explicitly considers agricultural development as consisting of processes of coevolution involving agriculture and the surrounding ecological and socioeconomic systems. Widening the processes to include strong interconnectedness with national and global systems with respect to off-farm resources and farm outputs has led to various agro-ecological problems. Strengthening local interaction and interconnectedness in a rural-urban context is found to be essential for developing a system of sustainable agriculture. Such development requires influencing many subsystems and implementing changes in production methods and land use as short-term responses to the problem, and technological development, resource allocation and changes in values as long-term responses. It also requires some sustainability principles and indicators in order to direct actions and to facilitate communications, which can be derived from the model. Applying the model on Swedish agricultural sustainability during the twentieth century reveals some, probably, important findings for “building” sustainable agriculture and lends support to the usefulness of the model.     

基于计算实验的农业科研机构科技资源配置结构效应研究

以我国农业科研机构为研究对象,在分析农业科研机构科技资源配置结构的基础上,基于计算实验方法构建农业科研机构科技资源配置结构运行的系统动力学模型,并以1998—2014年农业科技资源数据对模型进行实证模拟。针对不同配置方案进行组合实验,仿真模拟在各种方案下产出表征变量论文和专利申请量的变化情况。研究发现,政府科技投入、农业科研机构科研人员薪酬对专利和论文产出具有显著正向作用,农业科研机构科研人员比例与结构调整、课题经费投向对论文和专利的产出较为敏感。据此,探究如何调整配置结构达到最优产出,以期为相关部门制定政策提供参考。     

Depletion,climate, and the incremental value of groundwater

Groundwater provides vital inputs to crop production and contributes to rural economies throughout the world. Research on the economic benefits associated with groundwater resources has typically focused on the impacts of groundwater availability on the profitability of agricultural production or on the non-market benefits associated with groundwater quality for human consumption. In this research, we use stated-preference methods to investigate the total economic value to agricultural producers of an increase in groundwater availability in the Ogallala Aquifer region. The contingent valuation method allows for estimation of values beyond agricultural profitability, including non-market values such as the ability to leave additional groundwater to future generations. We find a median willingness to pay (WTP) for an additional 100 gallons per minute of well capacity of $77 per well, and that this estimate depends strongly on current well capacity and climate conditions. For counties in hotter and drier regions of the aquifer with low well capacity, median WTP is significantly higher. These results are then used in conjunction with projections of future climate and groundwater availability to generate predicted changes in the WTP for additional groundwater across the aquifer. This research provides important feedback on how the benefits of additional groundwater availability are predicted to change as groundwater resources are diminished in a changing climate.     

Profiling science and innovation policy by object-based computing

Named entities, such as key initiatives, research programmes, scientific strategies and policies, are research objects or objects that are embedded in many web pages of science and innovation institutes. These objects provide important information that can be extracted intelligently from those pages. This paper brings forward an object-based computing method by using objects and their semantic information for profiling science and innovation policies. After extracting the objects and the relationships between them, we proposed an object grid to represent web pages. Objects were transferred into machine-readable knowledge units with rich semantic information. By using computational objects, we judged the intelligence value of web resources and classified policies into more detailed categories, such as strategic plan, research and development, and budget. To test the effectiveness of profiling science and innovation policies by using the object-based computing method, this paper conducted a research profiling experiment system.     

新疆农产品地域品牌发展策略分析

对区域经济和产业集群的研究派生了区位品牌或地域品牌发展的研究,本文正是从地域品牌研究的视角,切合当前农业经济发展的迫切要求及新疆地域和人文资源的优势特点,以特色产业基地为基础,提出了由农产品原产地标志申请、农业企业化组织建设、农产品销售网络变革、农业科技和公共品牌投入组成的建设新疆农产品地域品牌的思路。     

农民对农业保险需求影响因素的实证分析——基于河北省的调查

农业保险需求不足是困扰中国农业保险发展的重要问题,也是政策性农业保险的重要理论根据之一。文章基于河北省11个地市的实地调查数据,运用Logistic模型对农业保险需求可能存在的影响因素进行分析,得出农民年收入、农民对农业保险的了解程度、农业生产是否划算以及是否必要购买保险等对农业保险需求存在显著影响的结论,提出应当通过提高农民收入、扩大宣传、加大政府政策支持力度以及扩大试点地区范围等措施来提高农业保险的有效需求,促进农业保险的发展。     

Ecological footprint analysis on the traditional rice-fish agricultural area： a case study of Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province, China

Qingtian County of Zhejiang Province, China has maintained the traditional rice-fish agriculture for about 2,000 years and formed exceptional cultural heritage based on this kind of production mode, so it was ed by FAO as a pilot site for the rice-fish agricultural heritage systems in 2005. This research has applied the indicators of ecological footprint and biocapacity to monitor the environmental conditions of Qingtian County, aiming to find the impact that the traditional agricultural production mode and the local inhabitants lifestyle have placed on the local environmental conditions as well as the role they have played in maintaining ecological balance, cultural inheritance and regional sustainable development. Results show that Qingtian County is characterized by a nearly breakeven total ecological balance, as opposed to Zhejiang Province, the world and other agricultural regions. However, compared with another rice-fish agricultural region, Congjiang County which enjoys a considerable ecological reserve, Qingtian County has consumed a greater amount of environmental resources. Specifically, about half of the ecological footprint of Qingtian County can be attributed to the cropland （50.8%） while the CO2 area only accounts for 11.2%, which is dramatically different from that of the modern industrialized regions. And a vast of percentage of energy is caused by the combustion of fuelwood which not only requires the land to absorb the CO2 emission it has generated but also occupies the forest where it has been chopped.     

A framework for implementing information and communication technologies in agricultural development in India

Knowledge is an increasingly significant factor of production in modern agriculture. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can accelerate agricultural development by facilitating knowledge management. Based on an evaluation of several ICT initiatives in rural India, a framework to guide policy and implementation of ICTs in Indian agriculture is proposed. In this framework, agricultural development is visualized from two perspectives, a rural incomes and livelihoods perspective at the farm level, and a sustainability perspective at the regional level. The implementation of ICTs is proposed in three unique institutional environments: (i) closed vertical supply chain network for agribusiness enterprises, (ii) an open chain network with dynamically evolving partners and supply chain situations for the public, non-governmental and multilateral organizations, and (iii) a spatial data services network to address natural resources management and sustainability concerns. Each environment is assessed to identify its appropriate business models centered around ICTs, required technologies, scope for up-scaling the models, and required institutional and policy initiatives. In the future, as ICT infrastructure grows and connectivity and hardware costs decline, the critical constraints are likely to be the development of appropriate policy and institutional environments for the creation and delivery of information and knowledge to the end users. Significant policy, institutional networking and capacity building initiatives will be required at various levels to overcome the constraints and effectively integrate ICTs into the agricultural development process in India.     

湘西地区主要农业资源及其利用效率

耕地、化肥、电量等作为主要的农业资源,对农业的产出具有非常重要的影响,其利用效率的高低直接制约着农业的生产效益。根据相关统计资料,采用资源消耗系数法对湘西主要农业资源利用效率在时间上进行了比较研究。结果表明,湘西耕地资源总的消耗系数随时间推移而下降、但化肥资源、电量资源、机械资源的消耗系数总体呈现上升趋势,并且各年份之间存在着较大差异,发展极不平衡,并分析了其中的原因,同时提出了促进湘西主要农业资源利用效率提高的政策性建议。（1）管理日趋短缺的耕地资源,关键在于保护耕地面积;（2）针对化肥资源、电量资源、机械资源消耗系数总体呈现上升态势,关键在于增加使用有机肥、修复水渠、塘坝,增大传统自流灌溉。     

精确农业发展与农业生态工程创新

本文分析了西方精确农业的主要目标及技术思想,比较了中国农业生态工程与精确农业的异同点.提出农业生态工程研究及实践具有独特的功能与作用,同时亦应正视自身发展中存在的问题,吸收精确农业有关原理及方法,在理论规范化、手段现代化、过程监测及其控制自动化、增加高新技术含量、与信息技术、机械工程专业有机结合、提高工程设计可操作性等方面努力,推动农业生态系统设计与管理的信息化与知识化,逐步形成基于信息技术、生物技术及机械工程装备的农业生态工程技术体系,为建立可持续发展的农业系统与实现以科学技术化为本质特征的农业现代化作出贡献.     

Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of agricultural production in Turkey between 2004 and 2019. Our findings show that climate change has a pervasive impact on agricultural development. The empirical results show that the average temperature is negatively associated with agricultural land use, grain, and legume production. Moreover, regional variability analyses reveal the nonmonotonic relationships between climatic factors and agricultural output. Climate change hurts agricultural production in northern and central regions the most. This finding points out the ineffectiveness of one-size-fits-all-type policies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change in topography with sizeable spatial dissimilarities. Overall, our results suggest that climate change will significantly threaten the evolution of agricultural activities that are critical for regional development. In addition, findings show that spatial spillovers and heterogeneity will be crucial for designing climate change policies for rural and agricultural development.     

区域农业可持续发展指标体系的构建与评价——以衡阳市为例

以衡阳市农业生产现状为例,运用区域农业可持续发展指标体系对衡阳市农业可持续发展水平进行了指标取值、计算及分析,指出衡阳市农业可持续发展的综合水平处于一般程度,进一步分析了衡阳市农业经济、农业生产要素、农业社会和农业资源与环境等四个方面可持续发展水平变化的原因,并提出了相应对策建议。