Public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan

This article examines the relationship between public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan. In particular, we focus on the effects of ‘discretionary’ changes in public investment, a portion of investment unrelated to the current state of macroeconomic circumstances. The empirical results show that such portions of public investment amplify regional business cycle fluctuations.     

The effect of demand-driven structural transformations on growth and technological change

The paper analyses the effect of the dynamics of consumption preferences on the dynamics of macro–economic growth. We endogenously derive micro–dynamics of consumption behavior as a result of the increase in the number of income classes. The different degrees of inertia in the adjustment of consumption levels to income changes affect firm selection and the dynamics of market structure, which is ultimately responsible for different regimes of macro–economic growth. We find, first, that higher heterogeneity in consumption preferences amplifies and accelerates market dynamics, leading to a swift shift from a Malthusian to a Kaldorian growth pattern. Second, consumption smoothing mainly affects the timing of such a take–off. Inertia in consumption delays the occurrence of a Kaldorian engine for growth.     

Technology investment and alternative regulatory regimes with demand uncertainty

A vertically integrated incumbent and an OLO (Other Licensed Operator) compete in the market for broadband access. The incumbent has the option to invest in building a Next Generation Network that covers all urban areas with similar demand structures. The investment return in terms of demand increase is uncertain. We compare the impact of different access regulation regimes – full regulation, partial regulation (only the copper network is regulated), risk sharing – on investment incentives and social welfare. We find that, when the alternative for the OLO is using the copper network rather than leaving the market entirely, exclusion of the OLO does not necessarily happen in equilibrium even when the incumbent is better in offering value-added services. Risk sharing emerges as the most preferable regime both from a consumer and a social welfare perspective for a large range of parameters.     

Controlling endogenous fluctuations of human capital investment in an OLG economy

A bifurcation occurs when there is a sudden qualitative or topological change in the behavior of the original system by varying one or more parameters (the bifurcation parameters) of the original system. Bifurcation can cause unacceptable new conditions or instability in the economy system. Its control is done by designing a controller input, thereby achieving desirable dynamical behavior. This paper deals with the control of a bifurcation caused by a rise in information costs in a human capital investment model. By employing the delayed feedback control (DFC) method, unstable fluctuations stemming from the system can be controlled without changing its original properties. In addition, we show the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed methods in the system with explicit functions.     

The capital structure and investment of regulated firms under alternative regulatory regimes

This paper explains how regulated firms choose their capital structure and examines the effects of this choice on investment and on regulated prices. It is shown that in equilibrium, firms have an optimal debt level and that given this debt level, the regulated price is set high enough to ensure that firms never become financially distressed. The analysis of the equilibrium yields testable hypotheses concerning the effects of changes in cost parameters and in the regulatory climate on the equilibrium investment level, capital structure, and regulated price. The analysis also shows that a regulatory restriction on the ability of the firm to issue securities may have an adverse effect on investment and consequently may harm consumers.     

Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of devaluation in a model where, following structuralist theories, investment is treated as output of a composite good produced by combining domestic and imported components in fixed proportions. Introducing investment goods of this type alters a number of results. Most notably, the Marshall-Lerner condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for an expansionary outcome and, under simple and plausible conditions, a devaluation may worsen the payments balance.     

Endogenous growth, welfare and budgetary regimes

Within an optimizing endogenous growth model with productive public capital and government debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path a set of welfare-maximizing fiscal rules under different budgetary regimes. It is shown that optimal fiscal policy depends on the specific budgetary stance considered.     

Interpreting fluctuations in output growth in China

Unlike in OECD countries, fluctuations in output growth in China are not straightforward in their interpretation. On the one hand, they reflect the business cycle, which results from shocks to aggregate demand. On the other hand, they also reflect the structural transformations that have accompanied China’s transition to a market economy. Demand shocks can be identified by virtue of the persistence of their impact. This paper decomposes the variance in provincial, regional, and national output growth according to its persistence characteristics. The results suggest that during the reform period, only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to demand shocks and business cycle fluctuations. It is also found that there is substantial heterogeneity in the persistence characteristics of output growth across provinces. Implications of the findings for macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

Linking investment spikes and productivity growth

We investigate the relationship between productivity growth and investment spikes using Census Bureau’s plant-level dataset for the U.S. food manufacturing industry. There are differences in productivity growth and investment spike patterns across different sub-industries and food manufacturing industry in general. Our study finds empirical support for the learning-by-doing hypothesis by identifying some cases where the impact of investment spikes on TFP growth presents a U-shaped investment age–productivity growth pattern. However, efficiency and the learning period associated with investment spikes differ among plants across industries. The most pronounced impact of investment age on productivity growth (5.3 % for meat products, 4% for dairy products, and 2.8 % in all food manufacturing plants) occurs during the fifth year of post-investment spike. Thus, in general, the productivity gains tend to be fully realized with a 5-year technology learning period for this industry.     

Foreign direct investment and endogenous growth in Vietnam

Foregin Direct Investment's (FDI's) contribution to growth has been a controversial topic in economic literature and appears to be country specific. In this article, we use time-varying coefficients in an augmented production function and let FDI indirectly affect Gross domestic product growth through labour productivity. This approach creates built-in heteroskedasticity, so the feasible generalized least square estimation is employed. The results show that FDI has significant and positive effect on labour productivity and economic growth in Vietnam, but the effect is not equally distributed among economic sectors.     

Complementarities and costly investment in a growth model

We develop a one-sector growth model whose key aspect is the combination of the assumptions of internal costly investment in capital and complementarities between capital goods in the production function. Despite the nonlinearity generated by these assumptions, the model delivers a single equilibrium.      

Learning investment and industrial diversity in urban growth

This paper studies an urban growth model where learning through personal contacts could be more effective in a denser locale, whereas the effectiveness of learning through impersonal means of communications depends principally on the technology of communications rather than on the locale in which learning takes place. As a result of advances in communications technology, cities would be larger, and workers would spent more time on learning through personal contacts but may cut time on impersonal learning if the two kinds of learning investment are complements. Otherwise, cities could become smaller, while workers would spend more time on impersonal learning at the expense of time on learning through personal contacts. In a multi-sector economy, urban industrial diversity tends to increase or fall together with city size.     

Renewable resources,property-rights regimes and endogenous growth

We extend Brander and Taylor's [Brander, J.A., Taylor, M.S., 1998. The simple economics of Easter Island: a Ricardo-Malthus model of renewable resource use. Am. Econ. Rev. 88, 119–138.] model of feast and famine cycles on Easter Island using Galor and Weil's [Gailor, O., Weil, D.N., 2000. Population, technology and growth: from Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond, Am. Econ. Rev. 90, 806–28] model of endogenous technological advance, where technological change is related to the population. We note that different property-rights regimes will influence the relative direction of technological advance—whether that advance is in harvesting technologies or in technologies that influence the growth rate of some renewable biological resource. Property-rights regimes that favor biological growth rates over harvest rates tend to dampen feast–famine cycles, while those that favor harvest efficiency worsen such cycles.     

Credit rationing and capital accumulation with investment and consumption loans revisited

A simple model is developed to evaluate the roles of credit rationing and government policies of financial repression in the process of capital accumulation. In the model, credit rationing on both investment and consumption loans decreases as capital accumulates but increases as the government imposes policies of financial repression to a greater extent. While a reduction in credit rationing on consumption loans impedes capital accumulation, such a reduction on investment loans facilitates it. We find that developing countries may be trapped at a low-capital-stock steady state while developed countries converge to a high-capital-stock steady state. Instead of adopting policies of financial liberalization, interestingly, this paper finds that policies of financial repression may enable developing countries to escape the development trap.     

区域经济增长与外国直接投资

我国区域经济二元化,是指西部地区经济大大落后于东部经济,从而形成地区之间巨大的经济发展差距。改革开放以来,国家实施了一系列有利于东部地区的改革措施及优惠政策,特别是取消和放松对外资进入的管制,出台吸引外国直接投资的相关条例等,形成了我国区域经济开放程度的二元化态势,即东部沿海地区开放程度高,中西部内陆地区开放程度低。东、西部地区开放程度的二元化,直接影响到外国直接投资(FDI)在东、西部投入的数量的差异,进而影响到东、西部资本形成能力、资本运营方式、资本使用效率的差异,而这正是决定改革开放20年来东、西部地区经济发展差距日益扩大区域经济呈现二元化格局的主要原因之一。     

Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth

This paper develops a post-Keynesian dynamic model of capacityutilisation and growth, in which the supply of credit-moneyis endogenous and firms' debt position—and thus the financialfragility of the economy à la Hyman Minsky—is explicitlymodelled. The interest rate is set by banks as a markup overa base rate exogenously determined by the monetary authority.The banking markup varies with changes in capacity utilisation,while the debt ratio varies with changes in the rates of interest,capital accumulation and growth. Regarding dynamics, it is shownthe possibility of relating the stability properties of a systemwith the interest rate and the debt ratio as state variablesto the prevailing Minskyan regime—hedge, speculative orPonzi.     

Factor accumulation in Canada before the Great Depression: investment and immigration dynamics

The links between economic growth, investment and migration are explored to determine if one of the mobile factors of production, capital or labor, led the other to accumulate in Canada during several boom episodes over 1870 to 1927. The results of an econometric analysis, using time series techniques, suggest that rising per capita incomes led to increased domestic investment and net immigration, and that foreigners joined the investment booms after domestic residents invested in Canadian development first.

Human capital,age structure and growth fluctuations

This article assesses the empirical relationship between per capita income growth fluctuations and the age-structured human capital variations across four groups of geographically clustered developed and developing countries from spatial perspective. We estimate a spatial Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of income dynamics where the distance between countries is defined on relational space based on their similarity in appropriation tendency of human capital in the production processes. These distances are computed using a newly developed human capital data set which fully characterizes the demographic structure of human capital, and thus underlines the joint relevance of demography and human capital in economic growth. Spatial effects on growth interdependence and complementarity are then explored with respect to the proposed distance metrics. Our results imply that significant cross-country growth interdependence based on human capital distances exists among defined country groups suggesting the need for a cooperative policy programme among them. We also find that the relationship between economic growth and human capital is highly nonlinear as a function of the proposed human capital distance.     

Economic growth,repression, and state expenditure in non-democratic regimes

This paper examines how economic growth affects government spending in non-democracies. A robust finding is that positive growth induces a significant increase in defence spending but a decrease in non-defence spending in dictatorships, with little effect in democracies. Government spending is slightly sensitive to negative growth across regimes. Higher growth rate in a country than its neighbours induces more spending than their average. Corruption causes a reduction in defence spending but an increase in non-defence spending. Primary education stimulates non-defence spending but reduces defence expenditure, secondary education causing the opposite effect. An under-developed country spends less than a developed country.