Does PPP hold in African countries? Further evidence based on a highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test

With a view to investigating whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory holds true for selected African countries during the January 1980–December 2003 period, we employ a rigorous, highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test, as first advanced by Leybourne et al. (1998 Leybourne, S, Newbold, P and Vougas, D. 1998. Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19: 83–97. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), which is considerably more powerful than those tests traditionally used. Compared with the rejection of the null of the unit root process for only one of the 22 countries under study when we use the traditional ADF, PP, KPSS, NP and the DF-GLS unit root tests, with the Leybourne et al. (1998 Leybourne, S, Newbold, P and Vougas, D. 1998. Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19: 83–97. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) test, we strongly reject the null of the unit root process for a surprising six of the 22 countries. These empirical results clearly indicate that PPP holds true for these six countries, namely the Central African Republic, the Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Madagascar, Uganda and Lesotho.     

Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?

First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford’s law. This phenomenon has been used in business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether Benford’s law holds in economic research and forecasting. First, we examine the distribution of regression coefficients and standard errors in research papers, published in Empirica and Applied Economics Letters. Second, we analyse forecasts of GDP growth and CPI inflation in Germany, published in Consensus Forecasts. There are two main findings: The relative frequencies of the first and second digits in economic research are broadly consistent with Benford’s law. In sharp contrast, the second digits of Consensus Forecasts exhibit a massive excess of zeros and fives, raising doubts on their information content.     

Does direct democracy make for better citizens? A cautionary warning based on cross-country evidence

It has been shown that both formal existence and actual use of direct democratic institutions have effects on a number of variables such as fiscal policies, quality of governance but also economic growth. Further, it has been argued that direct democratic institutions would not only have an impact on policy outcomes but influence citizen participation and attitudes toward politics. For the first time, these conjectures are tested in a large cross-country sample here. Overall, we do not find strong effects and some of the significant correlations are rather small substantially. In contrast to previous studies, voter turnout is not higher when direct democracy is available or used. Further, and also in contrast to previous studies, citizens do not express a greater interest in politics in countries with direct democracy institutions. Finally, they display lower trust in government and parties but not in parliament. These results shed some doubt on the hope that direct democracy would make for better citizens.     

Does the law of one price hold in a high-inflation environment? A tale of two cities in Turkey

This study addresses the price convergence in two cities in Turkey (Istanbul and Ankara) using annual data over the three-quarters of the twentieth century (1922–1998), characterized by prevailing high inflation rates for most of the period. In contrast to the rest of the literature addressing convergence in price levels with a typical result of extremely slow convergence rates at best, we argue that convergence is much easier detected in growth rates rather than levels of prices. We suggest using the bounds testing procedure of Pesaran et al. (2001) for this purpose. We find a clear-cut evidence on the existence of a common driving force behind inflation dynamics in Istanbul and Ankara – a finding that is in contrast with the results typically reported in related literature.     

Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates

Standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing conclusions regarding the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Rather than asking whether PPP holds throughout the whole sample period, we examine, in this study, if PPP holds sometimes by employing Hamilton-type (1989) Markov regime switching models. When at least one of multiple regimes is stationary, PPP holds locally within the regime. There are indeed various reasons that we should expect that the persistence of real exchange rates changes over time. Employing five real exchange rates spanning more than 100 years, we find herein strong evidence that the strength of PPP varies during the sample periods and that there exist stationary regimes in which PPP holds. Throughout the article, we also make comparisons to previous Markov regime switching estimation results by Kanas (2006) on the same data series. The new Markov switching model selection criterion of Smith et al. (2006), which is devised especially for discriminating Markov regime switching models, unambiguously indicates a preference for the Hamilton-type Markov regime switching model employed in this study. We also find that the evidence for PPP is not much different across different nominal exchange rate arrangements.     

Does R&D spur productivity growth in Australia’s broadacre agriculture? A semi-parametric smooth coefficient approach

This article analyses the role of research and development (R&D) in Australia’s broadacre farming by using the semi-parametric smooth coefficient model. While the conventional production function approach only captures the direct effects of R&D, this methodology captures both the direct impact of a change in R&D on output and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs in the production process. Moreover, technical inefficiency is introduced in the model allowing it as a function of R&D. Using a unique state-level dataset covering the period 1995–2007, this empirical study finds that once both the direct and indirect effects are taken into consideration, R&D investments significantly increase outputs. The results also show that there are substantial variations in the effects of R&D on output across the state-level average farm through technology parameters as well as through technical inefficiency. Such variations need to be taken into account when designing policies for investing public R&D in agriculture.     

Does bank efficiency matter? Market value relevance of bank efficiency in Australia

The stochastic frontier analysis is employed to investigate efficiency of publicly listed Australian banks over the period 1985 to 2008. The results suggest that technical, cost and profit efficiency of Australian banks have improved over time. Large banks have attained a higher level of cost efficiency but a lower level of technical efficiency compared to small banks. No substantial difference between the two groups is found in terms of profit efficiency. A panel regression of bank stock return on bank efficiency suggests that an improvement in technical, cost or profit efficiency contributes to the market value of a bank. Thus, the shareholder wealth maximization goal is aligned with the goal of maximizing bank efficiency in the Australian context.     

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.     

Shouldn't all eggs be putted in one basket? A portfolio model based on investor sentiment and inertial thinking

In the portfolio choice literatures and the financial market, diversification and concentration are the focus of debate of philosophers. In this paper, we develop a model of portfolio choice to integrate the diversification strategy and the concentration strategy. Our model relies on the concepts of investor sentiment and inertial thinking. The results show that: Generally, when the level of sentiment is relatively low, an investor who is affected by sentiment and inertial thinking may do a well-diversified investment the same as the rational investor. When the level of sentiment is high enough, the investment strategies including diversification and concentration are complex and volatile. Quantitative results for either diversification or concentration investment are given for all cases in the paper.     

Does Purchasing Power Parity hold? New evidence from wild-bootstrapped nonlinear unit root tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity

In spite of the extensive research which has already been undertaken, the issue as to whether Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) empirically holds, continues to be strongly debated. Existing studies have been criticized for their reliance on unit root tests which are deemed to suffer from certain weaknesses such as the size distortion bias arising from heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we provide new evidence on PPP based on a new methodology that overcomes this problem. We use the widely accepted KSS (Kapetanios et al., 2003) non-linear unit root tests which we, however, wild bootstrapped. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we demonstrate that the wild-bootstrapped KSS is robust to heteroskedasticity-induced size distortion problem. We apply this method to test PPP across 61 countries over the period 1994 to 2012 — a period characterized by a number of crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis, Russian Crisis, dotcom crisis, Global Financial Crises, among others, and therefore, intense heteroskedasticity. Our results provide strong evidence against PPP. This paper contributes to both the international financial economics and econometrics literatures.     

Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation

The aim of this article is to investigate the responses of European sector stock markets to oil price changes. We use linear and asymmetric models and study the association of oil and stock prices. Our findings suggest that the strength of this association varies greatly across sectors. Moreover, for some sectors we find strong evidence of asymmetry in the reaction of stock returns to changes in the price of oil.     

The price–volume relationship in the crude oil futures market Some results based on linear and nonlinear causality testing

This article presents some evidence for the presence of a causal relationship between price and volume in the crude oil futures market. The results of linear causality testing reveal the presence of causality running from volume to price but not vice versa. While the results of testing for nonlinear causality are inconsistent, most of the evidence shows that causality runs in both directions. In general, there is evidence for the sequential information arrival hypothesis and the noise trading model, but not for market efficiency. There is also some evidence for the presence of a maturity or a liquidity effect. Finally, there is some variation in the results, depending on the sample period.     

Does Preferential Trade Benefit Poor Countries? A General Equilibrium Assessment with Nonhomothetic Preferences

We develop a Ricardian model of trade with nonhomothetic preferences to analyze preferential trade agreements (PTAs) among countries of different stages of economic development. The richer a country is, the more likely will PTAs improve its terms of trade, also when it is a non‐member. Rich non‐member countries are also less likely to incur welfare losses from PTAs. PTA membership only guarantees welfare gains for countries that are too poor to import the goods rich countries produce. For all other countries, the welfare effects of joining PTAs depend on the world income distribution and on the strength of comparative advantages.     

What enhances mathematical ability? A cross-country analysis based on test scores of 15-year-olds

This article examines the mathematical abilities of 15-year-olds in a range of countries which participated in the 2003 cycle of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED)'s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Utilizing information on the scores obtained by individual students in the mathematical part of the PISA assessment, we use a range of indicators from the literature on inequality and poverty to evaluate the ‘mathematical performance’ of participating countries. Since data from PISA contained a wealth of information on the circumstances of the students in terms of their home and school environment, we identify and examine the relative influence of factors which serve to enhance the mathematical performance of students in the PISA assessment.     

Do prices count? A micro-econometric study of illicit drug consumption based on self-reported data

Using a unique data set of almost 2,500 interviews with people attending a needle exchange service in Oslo, this paper sets out to estimate the impact of economic factors on heroin and amphetamine injectors drug consumption, including cross-price effects. To examine the robustness of the conclusions, four model versions are considered: with focus on (i) switching regression mechanisms treating dealing/non-dealing as an endogenous decision, (ii) spline function versions examining possible kinks in the price response, (iii) a dynamic model version focusing on addiction, and (iv) pseudo panel data model versions focusing on unobserved heterogeneity. Negative and significant price elasticities and positive and significant income elasticities come out as robust results. Their magnitude vary, however, depending on the type of model, on the main drug for injecting, and on whether the consumer also is a dealer.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: June 2003This paper builds in part on Bretteville-Jensen and Sutton (1996): Under the influence of the market: An applied study of illicitly selling and consuming of heroin, Discussion paper no. 147, Centre for Health Economics, University of York, in which the authors thank Andrew Jones and Jes Søgaard for helpful advice during early stages of the work. We also express our thanks to Jan Erik Askildsen, Kjell Erik Lommerud, Aina Uhde, and a referee for valuable comments on this extended version.     

Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis

This study examines causal relationships between tourism spending and economic growth in 10 transition countries for the period 1988–2011. Panel causality analysis, which accounts for dependency and heterogeneity across countries, is used herein. Our empirical results support the evidence on the direction of causality, and are consistent with the neutrality hypothesis for 3 of these 10 transition countries (i.e. Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia). The growth hypothesis holds for Cyprus, Latvia and Slovakia while reverse relationships were found for the Czech Republic and Poland. The feedback hypothesis also holds for Estonia and Hungary. Our empirical findings provide important policy implications for the 10 transition countries being studied.     

The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?

The migrant crisis is one of the most challenging tasks the EU has ever faced. This paper uses a Panel Error Correction Model to assess the direction of the impact of immigration on domestic unemployment, in the short and in the long run, for a sample of 15 EU countries between 1997 and 2016. We test for different effects in core and periphery countries based on differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and labor market characteristics. In the long run, immigration is found to reduce unemployment in peripheral countries only, whereas in the short run, we find that immigration reduces unemployment for the whole sample. However, country-specific coefficients based on interactions with labour market characteristics indicate that short-run impacts are larger in Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries. Conversely, Italy, Greece and Portugal show the smallest impacts. Our results suggest that negative sentiments toward immigration due to labour market competition are mostly unjustified.     

A women’s boom in the boardroom: effects on performance?

This article analyses whether improving gender diversity in boardrooms improves firms’ economic performance. In the context of French CAC40-listed companies between 2008 and 2012, this research uses instrumental variable panel regressions, including production frontier estimates, to arrive at two key results. First, gender diversity in boards depends on firms’ attributes including their previous gender promotion strategies. Second, promoting women in boardrooms has a significant and positive effect on economic performance while accounting for the endogeneity boards’ gender diversity. Gender diversity even reduces corporate inefficiencies and enables firms to come closer to their optimal performance.