Diversification benefits in the smaller European stock markets

This paper examines the diversification benefits available to U.S. and Japanese investors over the period 1974-94 in seven of the smaller European stock markets (SESMs): Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. With reference to a simplified International CAPM that accommodates both contemporaneous and delayed information flows, we employ correlation, principal components, and cointegration analysis in studying monthly observations from national basket indices. The empirical evidence is conclusive in showing that the SESMs have behaved differently, at least since the October 1987 crash, with stronger contemporaneous interdependencies and integration between them and with the U.S. market. Cointegration analysis found no significant common trend shared between the SESMs and the U.S. and Japanese markets. We conclude that despite the increasing international integration there still exist opportunities for diversification investment in the smaller and less studied European stock markets.The present study is an extensively revised version of a paper presented at the 42nd Atlantic Economic Society Conference in Washington, DC, October 1996. We are indebted to the attendants and discussants of our session, especially Nicholas Apergis, Erotokritos Varelas, and George Zestos for their constructive comments and arguments. We also thank Terence Mills and two anonymous referees for their comments on this paper. Finally, we wish to thank Jay Smith, Leading Market Technologies, Cambridge, MA for providing us theEXPO/NeuralNet andEXPO/Econometrics software used in this study. For any remaining errors, the authors are fully responsible. Raphael Markellos is grateful for financial support received from the Department of Economics and the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Loughborough University, United Kingdom.     

学习型组织、学习型领导、学习力

21世纪是知识经济时代,在知识经济时代,成功只代表着过去,能力代表着今天,学习力代表着未来。个人要成为学习者,企业要成为学习型组织,国家要成为学习型社会。新世纪企业领导的主要任务是领导企业的员工更好的学习,提高企业的学习能力,学习型组织的领导者也有了新的角色定位,领导者是设计师、仆人和教师。员工素质和水平提高了,领导的水平更应该提高,提高的一个主要途径就是提升学习力。一个具有学习能力的人,就是一个不断走向成功的人。21世纪成功的关键是要进行有效的学习,即爱学、会学才会赢。每家企业都会有不同的“学习途径”,可谓条条道路通罗马。     

Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution

Information flows are weaker in a heterogeneous population when the performance of a new technology is sensitive to unobserved individual characteristics, preventing individuals from learning from neighbors' experiences. This characterization of social learning is tested with wheat and rice data from the Indian Green Revolution. The rice-growing regions display greater heterogeneity in growing conditions and the new rice varieties were also sensitive to unobserved farm characteristics. Wheat growers respond strongly to neighbors' experiences, as expected, while rice growers do not. Rice growers also appear to experiment more on their own land to compensate for their lack of social information.     

Faster,smaller, cheaper: an hedonic price analysis of PDAs

We compute quality-adjusted price indexes for personal digital assistants (PDAs) for the period 1999 to 2004. Hedonic regressions indicate that prices are related to processor generation and clock speed, memory capacity, screen size and quality and the presence of a digital camera or wireless capability. A particularly salient feature of PDAs is portability, where we find: (i) purchasers value the energy density of the battery technology (e.g. lithium ion) rather than the battery life in hours; and (ii) the physical characteristics of the PDA (e.g. weight, volume) are nonlinearly related to price, suggesting that valuation of the physical form of PDAs does not bear a simple linear relationship to characteristics, either in absolute terms (‘smaller is better’) or vs. an ergonomic ‘sweet spot’. Rather, portability characteristics are correlated with other desirable attributes, making the relationship between price and portability difficult to disentangle. However, hedonic price indexes are robust across different measures of the portability of PDAs. Hedonic indexes using the dummy variable, characteristics prices, and imputation approaches decline on average between 19 and 26% per year. A matched model price index computed from a subset of observations declines at 19% per year, while a fixed-effects hedonic index declines at 14% per year.     

Congestion,quality deterioration,and heterogeneous tastes

The problem of congestion is analyzed as a consumption externality in a model in which the market demand of consumers of facility services reflects heterogenous taste for congestion avoidance and individual willingness to pay is a function of the aggregate level of facility use. The analysis demonstrates that the Pareto optimal toll for facility use depends on the pattern by which congestion cost is distributed among facility users. In general, this optimal toll will deviate from that derived from the standard analysis.     

Openness, managerial incentives, and heterogeneous firms

This paper examines the effects of trade openness on managerial incentives and firm-level productivity by incorporating the principal-agent mechanism into the heterogeneous firm trade framework inter alia Melitz (Econometrica 71:1695?C1725, 2003). We show that opening up to trade generally leads to a steeper optimal managerial incentive scheme (and hence, higher firm productivity) via a new mechanism by which selection of heterogeneous firms into the export market plays a key role. This is because trade openness unambiguously increases the variation of firm profits by reallocating profits towards ex post low-cost exporters, leading to a higher stake of the market game faced by the principals. Interestingly, it is further shown that, whilst falling variable trade costs unambiguously increase managerial incentives, a reduction in fixed trade costs could possibly lead to weaker incentives and thus generate productivity losses due to an adverse inter-firm reallocation effect. Hence, the model establishes a causal link between the Melitz-type reallocation effect and the within-firm productivity changes, both of which have been identified as important sources of aggregate productivity gains from trade by recent empirical studies.     

Social classes,demographic transition and economic growth

This paper analyzes the role of the demographic transition in the emergence of sustained economic growth, and shows that these two processes are related. Unlike previous contributions which have focused on the importance of human capital, this paper suggests that capital accumulation, and the existence of different social classes may provide an alternative explanation for the observed pattern of output, fertility rates and wages during the 19th century. The framework presented shows that during the first phase of industrialization, a decline in capital–labor ratio reduces the wage rate and increases the dependency of the family unit on child labor, increasing fertility rates. However, in later phases the increase in the capital–labor ratio, due to the saving of the business elite, reduces the necessity of child labor bringing about the demographic transition.     

工资、附加福利和工人流动

引言本文研究企业如何把工资和附加福利作为工具来使用以获得他们需要的劳动力供给。我们的分析也提供了在享乐工资体系下存在摩擦的证据。据我们所知,我们的研究是首次使用雇主-雇员联接数据来检验工人流动如何对一般的附加福利范围(包括了若干种的附加福     

Recurrent unemployment,welfare benefits and heterogeneity

The objective of this paper is to investigate the causes of the recurrences of individuals in unemployment during benefit periods. So as to attain this objective, we use administrative data from the Spanish Employment Agency to estimate a duration model with multiple spells that allows for unemployment state dependence through lagged unemployment duration in order to distinguish the heterogeneity and scarring effects. We find that an increase in the duration of previous unemployment benefit periods lengthens the expected duration of future unemployment benefit periods. True state dependence and heterogeneity, intensity of job search and local labour market conditions are among the elements that explain this unemployment state dependence.     

Monetary policy,heterogeneous population and inflation

Adding heterogeneity to an otherwise simple model results in a deviation from the Friedman rule. We show that a central bank concerned with inequality delivers an outcome below the Pareto frontier. Our results may shed light as to why central banks around the world do not follow the Friedman rule and instead deliver positive inflation rates. On the other hand, the calibrated model indicates that the implied optimal inflation rates are much higher than those observed in the data. One possible interpretation of our results is to question the recent wisdom of thinking of inequality as part of central banks’ concerns.     

Trade between symmetric countries,heterogeneous firms,and the skill premium

Abstract This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization between symmetric countries on the skill premium. I introduce skilled and unskilled labour in a model of trade with heterogeneous firms à la Melitz (2003) and assume a production technology such that more productive firms are more skill intensive. I show that the effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality crucially depend on the type of trade costs considered and on their initial size. While fixed costs of trade have a potentially non‐monotonic effect on the skill premium, a drop in variable trade costs unambiguously and substantially raises wage inequality.     

Trade liberalization, heterogeneous firms and the soft budget constraint

We analyze the interaction between the soft budget constraint (SBC) and international trade by placing Segal’s (1998) SBC model within Melitz’s (2003) framework of international trade with heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. As in Segal’s model, SBC may result in moral hazard. The opening to international trade adds another sort of inefficiency. Some firms that would have become exporters in the absence of SBC choose to apply low effort and not export in order to extract a subsidy from the government. This effect takes place when the trade costs are sufficiently low. Overall, however, trade liberalization reduces inefficiencies generated by SBC. The number of firms subject to moral hazard SBC decreases, aggregate effort level increases and aggregate profits lost due to SBC-induced sub-optimal effort decline as trade costs decrease.     

Sectoral structure, heterogeneous plants, and international trade

I examine the impact of trade policy on manufacturing plant behavior by developing a methodology that addresses both plant heterogeneity and intersectoral resource reallocation. A plant-level microsimulation based upon the industry structure of Bernard et al. (2003) is linked to a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. This linkage permits an analysis of plant-level behavior that encompasses the trade-induced changes in factor prices and consumption patterns. The methodology is applied in the examination of two counterfactual trade policy scenarios on the Chilean manufacturing sector. The results suggest that trade liberalization leads to a reallocation of output toward the most productive producers. This result is driven by two primary causes: (a) a reduction in the price of inputs that promotes the expansion of output by the most productive producers and (b) increased competition from overseas that drives the least productive producers out of the market.     

Forecast performance,disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios

We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals’ forecast performance: Forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly from the average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the Surveys of Professional Forecasters for the USA and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts.     

Strategic tariffs, tariff jumping, and heterogeneous firms

The majority of research to date investigating strategic tariffs in the presence of multinationals finds a knife-edge result where, in equilibrium, all foreign firms are either multinationals or exporters. Utilizing a model of heterogeneous firms, we find equilibria in which both pure exporters and multinationals coexist. We utilize this model to study the case of endogenously chosen tariffs. As is standard, Nash equilibrium tariffs are higher than the socially optimal tariffs. Unlike existing models with homogeneous firms, we find that non-cooperative tariffs promote the existence of low-productivity firms relative to the socially optimal tariffs. This highlights a new source of inefficiency from tariff competition not found in models of homogeneous firms. In addition, we find that in many cases the Nash equilibrium tariff when FDI is a potential firm structure is lower than when it is not. As a result, FDI improves welfare by mitigating tariff competition.     

Housing choices,sorting, and the distribution of educational benefits under deferred acceptance

I study the welfare and distributional consequences of introducing the student‐proposing deferred acceptance in a model where schools have exogenous qualities and the benefit from attending a school is supermodular in school quality and student type. Unlike neighborhood assignment, deferred acceptance induces nonpositive assortative matching where higher type students do not necessarily choose neighborhoods with better schools. Student types are more heterogeneous within neighborhoods under deferred acceptance. Assuming an elastic housing supply, deferred acceptance benefits residents in lower quality neighborhoods with more access to higher quality schools. Moreover, more parents will “vote with their feet” for deferred acceptance, other things equal, than for neighborhood assignment.     

Business cycle, unemployment benefits and productivity shocks

The dimension of aggregate fluctuations is quite different between the European and US economies. Such a result fully justifies attention to non-Walrasian features for improving the empirical performance of the RBC model. In this paper, we introduce two features, present in European economies, into the standard general setting of the infinite-horizon stochastic growth paradigm: trade union behavior and unemployment benefits. We show that this non-Walrasian economy (i) improves the ability to account for the stylized facts, (ii) displays realistic features in explaining the employment and productivity puzzles, (iii) may account for contractions.     

Choice experiments,site similarity and benefits transfer

Choice experiments are designed to account for variations in environmental resources and site characteristics, as well as potential implications of these variations for willingness to pay. As a result, choice experiment results may be well suited for benefits transfer. It is unclear, however, whether the flexibility of choice experiments renders the similarity of study and transfer sites less critical for transfer validity. Drawing from identical choice experiments conducted in different Rhode Island communities, this model assesses the extent to which error in function-based benefits transfer is related to the similarity of communities across a variety of observable dimensions. Results suggest that site similarity, at least across some dimensions, influences the validity of choice experiment benefits transfers. However, the use of some measures of similarity as indicators of transfer error may provide misleading results.     

Capacity,sustainability, and the community benefits of municipal utility ownership in the United States

ABSTRACT

Most literature on utility sustainability focuses on internal operations; this misses the role that utilities could play within a community. This study measures the impact of municipal ownership of water and electric utilities on the sustainability policymaking of local governments. I find that municipalities with government-owned water utilities adopt more sustainability measures than those with investor-owned service. Similarly, municipally-owned electric utilities have higher levels of energy sustainability in the community, but not in government operations. The utilities provide fiscal and technical capacity to municipalities. Interdepartmental coordination also strongly predicts sustainability policymaking. This study brings potential community benefits to the discussion of private investment in public service delivery.     

Shocks,learning, and persistence

A simple model of the process of learning in a diverse economy is presented. This model produces a stylized business cycle with shocks which precipitate the learning process. All agents have the same information, which implies that this business cycle cannot be reduced by improved information flow, counter to many models of output and employment fluctuation.