企业成长性剖析及注意事项

成长性分析是企业财务状况非常重要的一个方面,然而,目前的成长性指标却常常让企业家产生困惑,比如有的成长性指标好,有的成长性指标差,那么到底企业的成长性如何?又如代表未来潜在成长性的指标显示不好,但几年后再看企业的成长性却没有当时所显示的差,这又是什么原因导致?是企业成长性指标分析失效还是有别的原因。本文通过对成长性指标进行深度剖析,得出企业成长性指标之间的逻辑关系以及未来潜在成长性指标所隐含的假设,以解释目前分析中存在的疑惑,并依此提出进行企业成长性分析时的注意事项。     

Switch or persevere? The effects of experience and metacognition on persistence decisions

This paper extends the scholarly understanding of entrepreneurial persistence decisions by identifying individual-level constructs that moderate which decision criteria have the most influence on entrepreneurs’ persistence decisions. Prior research demonstrates that contextual factors, such as feedback through adversity and the attractiveness of opportunities in an entrepreneur’s environment, determine whether or not an entrepreneur will persist with their current venture. We contribute to this literature by theoretically proposing and empirically testing how individual differences in entrepreneurial experience, metacognitive experience, and metacognitive knowledge moderate which aspects of environmental information entrepreneurs pay the most attention to when deciding whether or not to persist. We test our proposed model using a conjoint experiment that allows for monitoring actual persistence decisions of 124 entrepreneurs. Results suggest that metacognitive knowledge influences persistence decisions primarily through altering the impact that probability of expected outcomes associated with potential alternatives has on entrepreneurs’ persistence decisions. Furthermore, the results provide evidence that more experienced entrepreneurs weigh financial returns and switching costs more heavily when making persistence decisions.     

Lending terms and aggregate productivity

Several empirical studies suggest that lending terms are eased in expansions and tightened in recessions, thereby influencing the mix of financed entrepreneurs. We study a model of adverse selection in competitive financial markets and show that lending terms deteriorate with the aggregate state under two general conditions. If exogenous increments to entrepreneurs׳ productivity raise returns to investment and/or tighten the credit line needed to screen out a given entrepreneur type, competition results in contracts with less screening. Two endogenous effects on productivity emerge. Production scales grow closer to optimal, but lower productivity entrepreneurs enter the mix of producers. The positive (negative) effect dominates at low (high) aggregate states.     

Estimating the shirking model with variable effort

We show in a theoretical efficiency wage model where firms differ in monitoring intensity that the impact of monitoring intensity on wages is ambiguous, a result that mirrors evidence from the empirical literature. We argue that to correctly specify the impact of monitoring on wages, the interaction between monitoring and effort needs to be modelled. Results using a worker, firm panel from Ghana which contains reasonable effort and monitoring proxies show that the return to effort is higher in poorly monitored sectors as the theory suggests.     

Determining the influence of national culture: insights into entrepreneurs’ collective identity and effectuation

While prior research demonstrates that an entrepreneur’s behavior and perceptions are essentially shaped by national culture, little is known about how cultural values impact effectual behavior among entrepreneurs. We outline a conceptual model of how entrepreneurs’ effectual behavior is shaped by collective identity under different levels of cultural conditioning (i.e., national cultural values). Based on a survey of 235 Thai and German entrepreneurs we analyze the impact of Hofstede’s cultural dimensions of power distance, individualism, masculinity, and long-term orientation on the relationship between collective identity and effectuation. Results show that national culture is dispositive for the causal effects of collective identity on effectual behavior. Our findings demonstrate that the entrepreneur’s effectual behavior differs due to their national cultural conditioning.

     

The impact of national culture and type of entrepreneurs on outsourcing

In this paper, we seek to address two important questions. First, why do companies outsource to countries with intensive entrepreneurial activities? Second, we examine the relationship between entrepreneurs and outsourcing success. We argue that national cultures determine the types of entrepreneurs that are more common in a country. We contend that the type of entrepreneurs, promoters versus trustees, influences outsourcing success. Specifically, we propose that promoters tend to outsource more and find an exit strategy faster, but are also more likely to select the wrong vendor than trustees.     

Sequential product positioning in the presence of an asymmetric network externality intensity

In this study, we analyze the sequential decisions on product positioning of two firms in the presence of network externalities. One commonly accepted phenomena in a market where a network externality arises is the first‐mover advantage, in which the first entrant into a market can earn a higher profit than later entrants. However, in some recent online services markets, we see that the second mover earns a higher profit than the first mover. This occurs because the second mover strengthens its variety of available functions and services markedly, thereby facilitating consumers' work and communication with its main product, which we call network externality intensity. Based on this observation, we analyze sequential positioning in Hotelling's framework by incorporating an asymmetric network externality intensity between firms. We show that unlike the results of previous related studies, both first‐ and second‐mover advantages can appear in the equilibrium depending on the relationship of the network externality intensity between firms; further, they do not change monotonically with the level of network externality intensity.     

The influence of entrepreneurs’ immigrant status and time on the perceived likelihood of exporting

We contribute in this paper to the scant literature on the factors and conditions influencing the development of different perceptions of potential international opportunities for immigrant and native entrepreneurs in the pre-internationalization phase. Specifically, we investigate what factors influence the perceived likelihood entrepreneurs have of exporting. Building on entrepreneurial intentions and opportunity-based entrepreneurial processes, we propose a cognitive account of perceived likelihood of exporting based on entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the desirability and feasibility of export opportunities. We investigate how the immigrant status (i.e., individual characteristics) and time (i.e., contextual factors) influence the relationship between the desirability and feasibility of exporting, and entrepreneurs’ perceived likelihood of exporting. We employ an experimental design on a matched-pair sample of 108 native and immigrant entrepreneurs in domestic technology-based firms. The results are a unique account of the cognitive antecedents of the perceived likelihood of exporting under different temporal conditions, comparing immigrant and native entrepreneurs. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.

     

How an Economic Recession Affects Qualitative Entrepreneurship: Focusing on the Entrepreneur's Exit Decision

This study analyzes how an economic recession affects entrepreneurship from a qualitative perspective. We define entrepreneur as a person who takes risks under uncertainty. Based on this definition, an entrepreneur's exit decision is modeled using real options theory to measure entrepreneur's willingness to accept uncertainty. We find that entrepreneurs who entered before a recession exit when their critical revenue stream reaches 0.16 times the average revenue stream value. The equivalent value for entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is 0.33 times the average revenue stream. Furthermore, when uncertainty doubles, the exit probability of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is approximately 2.75 times higher than that of entrepreneurs who enter before recession. We conclude that the majority of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession are qualitatively disadvantaged, which leads to the overall decrease in qualitative entrepreneurship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Child maturation, time-invariant, and time-varying inputs: their interaction in the production of child human capital

We model the relationship over time between multiple good and bad inputs to the child development production process and the multiple good and bad outcomes which are generated. Doing this avoids several well-known empirical problems associated with construction and use of aggregated inputs and outputs, the assumption of separability among inputs and outputs, and the estimation of reduced forms. Using time-demeaned data for a balanced panel of families from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth?CChild Sample for 1994?C2000, we estimate an output-oriented directional distance function that simultaneously relates good and bad inputs from home, school, and environment, to good and bad outcomes, measured as children??s math and reading test scores as well as parent-reported behavior problems. We are able for the first time to compute partial effects among endogenous outputs. Recovering consistent estimates of time-invariant coefficients using a second-stage estimator, we find that some time-invariant variables are significant. We also measure productivity growth, technical change, efficiency change, and technical efficiency. Children??s productivity growth is highest at age 5?years and diminishes thereafter. Finally, we investigate the effect on these estimates of the choice of alternative direction vectors for the good and bad outputs.     

The role of mentoring in the learning development of the novice entrepreneur

It has been recognized that learning outcomes can be divided into three general categories: Cognitive, skill-based, and affective learning. Moreover, public organizations offer mentoring-inspired support programs to novice entrepreneurs starting a business. This study explores entrepreneurial learning through mentoring. We have coded 53 learning outcomes acquired by novice entrepreneurs through their mentoring relationship. These learning outcomes were analysed using the three general categories and linked with the mentor’s way of promoting learning. Cognitive learning accounts for 62% of total learning outcomes and affective learning makes up 35.9%, which leaves skill-based learning in a marginal position. In addition, methods used by the mentor to ensure mentee learning affect learning content. Mentees were also asked to describe the benefits of their mentoring relationship through discussion groups. From a cognitive learning standpoint, benefits reported by entrepreneurs include an increase in management knowledge and skills, improved vision for their business venture and identifying new opportunities. Benefits resulting from affective learning include a greater sense of self-efficacy, validation of one’s entrepreneurial self-image and a lowered sense of solitude, all factors that could ultimately influence entrepreneur resilience. These results reveal the scope and limitations of mentoring as means to support learning.     

Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets

This paper studies entry and exit decisions in markets whose demand alternates between growth and decline phases at uncertain times. We introduce a stochastic process that captures these features of random market evolution, and we provide key mathematical results related to first passage times which make the characterization of entry and exit behavior quite simple and straightforward (even when the process is subject to an endogenously determined upper or lower barrier). We characterize entry and exit patterns in a dynamic competitive equilibrium, and we show why our results differ from those obtained if demand follows a diffusion process (e.g., a Geometric Brownian Motion). Despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has a continuous sample path in both cases, we demonstrate in our setting that positive rates of entry and exit discontinuously fall to zero owing to informational overshooting. Another advantage of our framework is that it can explain discontinuities in firm values even if sample paths are continuous. Our framework is also amenable to empirical implementations (as we show using Corts’ 2008 offshore oil drilling application), and to an intuitive interpretation of optimal (dis) investment rules based on Bernanke’s (1983) “bad news principle of irreversible investment.”     

Entrepreneurial optimism and creative destruction

Using textual analysis of annual reports of US-listed firms, we provide empirical evidence that uncertainty (rather than risk) and optimism are distinctive characteristics of high-impact entrepreneurial firms (recently listed firms) relative to old incumbent firms. We construct an entrepreneurial entry predation model with uncertainty based on this evidence. We show that optimistic entrepreneurs may enter markets that otherwise would be blocked from entry by incumbents’ predatory threats. Thus entrepreneurial optimism may be to the benefit of consumers. Entrepreneurial optimism can also create a strategic advantage for entrepreneurs since incumbents may react by being less aggressive in product market interactions, which will benefit the profitability of the entrepreneur’s venture and consumers via lower prices.     

Personal Taxes and the underpricing of initial public offerings

The purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative explanation for the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). The first section reviews the empirical evidence on underpricing IPOs in support of various alternative hypotheses that have been put forth in the literature. This is followed by our model which examines the effect of personal taxes paid by entrepreneurs on the choice of the issue price. We show that, in the presence of taxes and for certain levels of ownership retained by the entrepreneur, it may be preferable to underprice the issue. This theoretical result is reinforced by both the simulation and empirical tests.     

Immigrants` Entrepreneurial Networks and Export: A Comparative Study

The aim of this study is to examine the differential impacts of networking in the public and private spheres on the export performance of first- and second-generation immigrant entrepreneurs, as well as native-born entrepreneurs. We apply transnational and ethnic theories to elaborate hypotheses using data collected by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor on 26,591 native-born entrepreneurs, first-generation immigrant entrepreneurs, and second-generation immigrant entrepreneurs. In examining this fairly global representation of entrepreneurs, we found that such networking had a significant impact on the exporting of second-generation immigrant entrepreneurs. More specifically, we show that although they benefited the least from private-sphere networking, compared to first-generation immigrant and native-born entrepreneurs, they derived more benefits from public-sphere networking than the other two groups. This study contributes to the theory in this field by accounting for the skewness of dual-embeddedness among immigrant entrepreneurs and its effect upon networking and export performance.

     

The influence of entrepreneurs’ social referents on start-up size

This paper uses social comparison theory to explore the effect that the average size of established businesses at the regional (provincial) level may have on start-up size. It is argued that established entrepreneurs at the regional level become referents of new entrepreneurs, influencing not only the decision to become entrepreneurs but also the characteristics of the new venture, such as its initial size. Specifically, the greater the average size of established businesses at the provincial level, the bigger the start-up size of new ventures. This paper further considers how this effect is moderated by two key individual level variables: knowing an entrepreneur personally (i.e., close social referent), and being the owner and manager of an existing business (i.e., past entrepreneurial and managerial experience). Predictions are tested using data that combine individual- and provincial-level information in Spain over the period 2008–2014. The results show the positive relationship of the average size of established businesses on new venture start-up size, and that this effect decreases when the entrepreneurs have previous entrepreneurial experience.     

Entrepreneurship and mutuality: social capital in processes and practices

Social capital, which offers the broader theoretical construct to which networks and networking relate, is now recognized as an important influence in entrepreneurship. Broadly understood as resources embedded in networks and accessed through social connections, research has mainly focused on measuring structural, relational and cognitive dimensions of the concept. While useful, these measurements tell us little about how social capital, as a relational artefact and connecting mechanism, actually works in practice. As a social phenomenon which exists between individuals and contextualized through social networks and groups, we draw upon established social theory to offer an enhanced practical understanding of social capital – what it does and how it operates. Drawing on the work of Pierre Bourdieu and Robert Putnam, we contribute to understanding entrepreneurship as a socially situated and influenced practice. From this perspective, our unit of analysis is the context within which entrepreneurs are embedded. We explored the situated narratives and practices of a group of 15 entrepreneurs from ‘Inisgrianan’, a small town in the northwest of Ireland. We adopted a qualitative approach, utilizing an interpretive naturalistic philosophy. Findings show how social capital can enable, and how the mutuality of shared interests allows, encourages and engages entrepreneurs in sharing entrepreneurial expertise.     

Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems

Financial derivatives commonly contain premature termination clauses, which are embedded rights held by the holder or writer. Well known examples of these stopping rights include the early exercise right in American options, the callable right in callable securities and the prepayment right in mortgage loans. In this paper, we show how to model the mortgagor's prepayment in mortgage loans and the issuer's call in the American warrant as an event risk using the intensity based approach, where the propensity of prepayment or calling is modeled by the intensity of a Poisson process. We illustrate that the corresponding pricing formulation resembles the penalty approximation approach commonly used in the solution of the linear complementarity formulation of an optimal stopping problem. We obtain several theoretical results on the prepayment strategies of mortgage loans and calling policies of American warrants. We also propose robust second order accurate numerical schemes for solving the penalty formulation of an optimal stopping problem.     

Debt renegotiation under reputation concerns and tolerance for failure

We propose a career concern model where a privately informed entrepreneur reports the firm financial situation. On this basis, the creditor may offer debt renegotiation. Due to reputation concerns, the entrepreneur may feel reluctant to restructure and may manipulate information. We analyze how creditor attitude towards failure and entrepreneurs reputation concerns interact and influence the restructuring decision. We show that debt renegotiation under more lenient conditions discourages manipulation because entrepreneurs are ensured that their reputation will not suffer from revealing financial difficulties. Intolerant creditors make entrepreneurs more concerned about reputation weakening their incentives to restructure, leading to inefficient continuation of investments.     

Partial information about contagion risk,self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.