Volatility, Efficiency, and Trading: Further Evidence

Along the lines of Amihud and Mendelson (1987a, 1989,1991), this study investigates the unique trading mechanism of the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) and its intraday behavior of stock price volatility. The evidence from this study indicates that the introduction of an additional clearing procedure at the afternoon closing makes price discovery process more efficient than before from the viewpoint of stock price volatility. Hence, such trading mechanisms can be applied to emerging stock markets as well as developed stock markets. In addition, based on intraday analysis, stock price volatilities appear to occur mainly during the trading period, not during the lunch break or overnight period. Consequently, the results confirm the previous studies that information arrival and trading activities are the main sources of volatility.     

Market effects of private equity placement: Evidence from Chinese equity and bond markets

Research has provided empirical evidence for the stock market reaction toward private placement; however, similar research has not been conducted in terms of the bond market. Using the event study method, we empirically examine the explanatory power of the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses based on the reaction of the stock market, bond market, and firm abnormal returns to the private placement announcement. The results show that the stock market has a negative reaction toward private placement, whereas the bond market has a positive reaction. The results also show that the scale of private placement is correlated with the severity of the market reaction. Abnormal returns indicate no significant change both before and after the private placement, and they are unaffected by the scale of private placement. These results are consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis; however, the market reaction is not attributable to the signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis. Extensive research shows that the abnormal returns of private placement change dramatically in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bonds, whereas the bond maturity has no significant impact on the abnormal returns—the wealth transfer effect of private placement is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bond.     

Distribution theory for the studentized mean for long,short, and negative memory time series

We consider the problem of estimating the variance of the partial sums of a stationary time series that has either long memory, short memory, negative/intermediate memory, or is the first-difference of such a process. The rate of growth of this variance depends crucially on the type of memory, and we present results on the behavior of tapered sums of sample autocovariances in this context when the bandwidth vanishes asymptotically. We also present asymptotic results for the case that the bandwidth is a fixed proportion of sample size, extending known results to the case of flat-top tapers. We adopt the fixed proportion bandwidth perspective in our empirical section, presenting two methods for estimating the limiting critical values—both the subsampling method and a plug-in approach. Simulation studies compare the size and power of both approaches as applied to hypothesis testing for the mean. Both methods perform well–although the subsampling method appears to be better sized–and provide a viable framework for conducting inference for the mean. In summary, we supply a unified asymptotic theory that covers all different types of memory under a single umbrella.     

Parametric Value-at-Risk analysis: Evidence from stock indices

We evaluate the performance of several volatility models in estimating one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of seven stock market indices using a number of distributional assumptions. Because all returns series exhibit volatility clustering and long range memory, we examine GARCH-type models including fractionary integrated models under normal, Student-t and skewed Student-t distributions. Consistent with the idea that the accuracy of VaR estimates is sensitive to the adequacy of the volatility model used, we find that AR (1)-FIAPARCH (1,d,1) model, under a skewed Student-t distribution, outperforms all the models that we have considered including widely used ones such as GARCH (1,1) or HYGARCH (1,d,1). The superior performance of the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model holds for all stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions. Our findings can be explained by the fact that the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model can jointly accounts for the salient features of financial time series: fat tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering and long memory. In the same vein, because it fails to account for most of these stylized facts, the RiskMetrics model provides the least accurate VaR estimation. Our results corroborate the calls for the use of more realistic assumptions in financial modeling.     

Motives behind equity holding by banks: Evidence from India

This paper examines the motives behind equity holding by banks in non-financial firms. It has been argued that banks hold equity in firms primarily for two reasons: to support their debt holding or for returns as capital investments. This paper tries to examine which among these two motives drive equity holdings by Development Financial Institutions in India (DFIs). Results indicate that equity holding by DFIs in India is primarily driven by their interest as creditors. In poorly performing firms, equity holding by DFIs is also driven by debt restructuring in firms in the form of conversion of debt to equity. The author would like to thank Subrata Sarkar, Vikas Rawal and an anonymous referee of the journal for their comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Volatility and error transmission spillover effects: Evidence from three European financial regions

This study uses the multivariate GARCH-BEKK modelling approach to examine the transmission of news (both volatility and error) between portfolios of cross-listed equities within three European financial regions, that is, the Scandinavian (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway), the Germanic (Austria, Switzerland and Germany) and the French area (Brussels, France, Italy, Holland and Spain). We find that the Finnish and Danish portfolios of cross-listed equities are the main transmitters of volatility relative to the Swedish and Norwegian portfolios of cross-listed equities. On the other hand, the Swiss portfolio of cross-listed equities is the major exporter of volatility and error to the other portfolios of cross-listed equities in the Germanic stock market area. Finally, the Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels stock exchanges are the major exporters of volatility and error to the portfolios of cross-listed equities traded on the Milan and Madrid stock exchanges.     

价格波动性与股票预期回报——基于中国市场的初步证据

基于国际资本市场数据的研究发现,股票价格的波动率和股票未来的回报率负相关,而且风险差异不能解释这个现象,文章使用中国股票市场的数据发现了相同的结论。在1998年1月到2003年12月期间内,基于过去一个月内股价波动率的对冲组合在未来六个月内能够取得0.32%的月风险调整超额回报率。M iller(1977)认为股价波动性代表了投资者对股票价值评估的不确定性和异质性,因为卖空限制的存在,波动性高的股票的价格更多地反映了乐观投资者的看法,因而出现高估价值的错误定价。文章分析认为M iller的错误定价理论能够解释股价波动率与未来回报率之间的负相关关系。     

EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted risk metric adopted internationally under the Basel Accords for banking industry internal control, capital adequacy and regulatory reporting. The recent extreme financial market events such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) commencing in 2007 and the following developments in European markets mean that there is a great deal of attention paid to risk measurement and risk hedging. In particular, to risk indices and attached derivatives as hedges for equity market risk. The techniques used to model tail risk such as VaR have attracted criticism for their inability to model extreme market conditions. In this paper we discuss tail specific distribution based Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and evaluate different methods that may be used to calculate VaR ranging from well known econometrics models of GARCH and its variants to EVT based models which focus specifically on the tails of the distribution. We apply Univariate Extreme Value Theory to model extreme market risk for the FTSE100 UK Index and S&P-500 US markets indices plus their volatility indices. We show with empirical evidence that EVT can be successfully applied to financial market return series for predicting static VaR, CVaR or Expected Shortfall (ES) and also daily VaR and ES using a GARCH(1,1) and EVT based dynamic approach to these various indices. The behaviour of these indices in their tails have implications for hedging strategies in extreme market conditions.     

The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty,investor sentiment,and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements

We use daily data of the Google search engine volume index (GSVI) to capture the pandemic uncertainty and examine its effect on stock market activity (return, volatility, and illiquidity) of major world economies while controlling the effect of the Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) sentiment index. We use a time–frequency based wavelet approach comprising wavelet coherence and phase difference for our empirical assessment. During the early spread of the COVID-19, our results suggest that pandemic uncertainty, and FEARS sentiment strongly co-move, and increased pandemic uncertainty leads to pessimistic investor sentiment. Furthermore, our partial wavelet analysis results indicate a synchronization relationship between pandemic uncertainty and stock market activities across G7 countries and the world market. Our results are robust to the inclusion of alternative pandemic fear measure in the form of equity market volatility infectious disease tracker. The pandemic uncertainty and associated sentiment implications could be one plausible reason for increased volatility and illiquidity in the market, and hence, policymakers should look upon this issue for the financial market stability perspective.     

The stochastic volatility in mean model and automation: Evidence from TSE

This paper investigates the behavior of volatility in Canadian equity markets before and after automation. We employ a stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model that incorporates the unobserved volatility as an explanatory variable in the mean equation. The volatility persistent estimates all increase post-automation, with the scaling parameter increasing as well. The parameter estimates which measure both the ex ante relationship between returns and volatility and the volatility feedback effect are found to be negative for all series, and to increase post-automation. Our results fall in line with those of (French, K.R., Schwert, G.W., & Stanbaugh, R.F. (1987). Expected stock returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19, 3–29) who find similar relationship between unexpected volatility dynamics and returns and confirm the hypothesis that rational risk-averse investors require higher expected returns when unanticipated increase in future volatility are highly persistent. Finally, our findings are consistent since higher values of persistence are combined with larger negative values for the in-mean parameter.     

Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model

Since the bubble of the late 1990s the dividend yield appears non-stationary indicating the breakdown of the equilibrium relationship between prices and dividends. Two lines of research have developed in order to explain this apparent breakdown. First, that the dividend yield is better characterised as a non-linear process and second, that it is subject to mean level shifts. This paper jointly models both of these characteristics by allowing non-linear reversion to a changing mean level. Results support stationarity of this model for eight international dividend yield series. This model is than applied to the forecast of monthly stock returns. Evidence supports our time-varying non-linear model over linear alternatives, particularly so on the basis of an out-of-sample R-squared measure and a trading rule exercise. More detailed examination of the trading rule measure suggests that investors could obtain positive returns, as the model forecasts do not imply excessive trading such that costs would not outweigh returns. Finally, the superior performance of the non-linear model largely arises from its ability to forecast negative returns, whereas linear models are unable to do.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the volatility spillover effect among the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index, stock markets, gold and oil by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Three main results are obtained. Firstly, the optional consumption, industry, public utility and financial sectors are systemically important during the sample period. Secondly, among the four policy uncertainties, the uncertainty of fiscal policy and trade policy contributes more to the spillover effect, while the uncertainty of monetary policy and exchange rate policy contributes less to the spillover effect. Thirdly, during COVID-19, oil spillovers from other sources dropped rapidly to a very low point, it also had a significant impact on the net volatility spillover of the stock market. This paper can provide policy implication for decision-makers and reasonable risk aversion methods for investors.     

Fund immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese equity funds

This paper discusses the connection between public equity fund characteristics and performance reactions to COVID-19 using data over 1300 equity funds across 105 Chinese fund companies. Empirical evidences from over 20 fund characteristics show that the liquidity, diversification and pre-2020 Sharpe ratio, fund management abilities, agency costs can determine the fund immunity to COVID-19. Based on these characteristics mentioned, our empirical results can explain why COVID-19-induced drop in fund performance is milder among open-end funds, active funds, ETFs, and growth funds, and also can explain why funds controlled by private companies or by sino-foreign joint ventures or by companies with more independent directors of financial experiences perform better in the pandemic. Our work also provides some valuable suggestions for investors and regulators confronting an exogenous shock.     

重大事件披露、股价异常波动与内幕交易——基于重大信息披露违规公司的经验证据

规范化的信息披露是证券市场正常运转的基石。本文利用重大事件披露违规公司研究信息披露违规背后是否存在股价异常波动与内幕交易现象，并将样本公司按照处分类型和公司类型分类检验。研究表明，总体样本公司的股票存在显著的内幕交易行为，并呈现出牛市背景下的新特征：受到公开谴责的公司股票内幕交易程度显著高于受到公开处罚的公司股票，ST公司股票的内幕交易程度显著高于非ST公司股票。     

A micro view on home equity withdrawal and its determinants: Evidence from Dutch households

For most households, home ownership is the largest wealth component that has become more accessible through innovation and deregulation in mortgage markets. This paper studies the factors driving home equity withdrawal (HEW) at the household level using Dutch survey data. In the Netherlands, house prices were growing fast and mortgage expenses are to a large extent tax deductible. Expectations and perceptions do seem to play an important role in HEW. Withdrawers tend to be more positive about house price developments and – although having lower income – less concerned about their future economic situation. HEW can have a significant impact on both households and the economy, with most of the equity released being reinvested in the housing sector and only a small share used to finance consumption expenditure.     

Entrepreneurial human capital,equity concentration and firm performance: Evidence from companies listed on China's Growth Enterprise Market

In this work, a sample of firms listed on China's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) is employed to investigate the impact of human capital and equity concentration on firm performance. It shows that entrepreneurs' education level, industry experience and technical professional background have a positive impact on firm performance. Moreover, the higher the equity concentration, the better a firm's performance. Entrepreneurs with rich industry experience and a technical professional background tend to collect and condense equity, thereby increasing equity concentration. These findings reveal the relationship between entrepreneurial human capital and ownership concentration and enrich research on firm performance.     

The effects of high-speed rail on accessibility and equity: Evidence from the Turin-Lyon case-study

According to EU directives, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is adopted to assess the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR). CBA evaluates the effectiveness of such infrastructure, determining whether and to what extent the present benefits overcome the present opportunity costs. However, it fails to include equity issues, which are the key aspects of transport planning. After a general discussion of equity in HSR and its link with the concept of accessibility, this study describes some complementary methods to calculate the variation in equity. Four of them (i.e. the potential accessibility index, spatial rail equity index, Gini index, and coefficient of variation) were adopted to assess the equity impacts for the Italian municipalities along the Turin-Lyon HSR. The results of the analysis reveal that despite a generalised increase in overall accessibility, equity implications are more contradictory, with main localities gaining further benefits compared to medium- and small-sized municipalities. In particular, the latter register a further increase in peripheralization. However, since they account for 36% of the total surface but represent only approximately 1% of the total population, the overall balance for the population served by the infrastructure may be considered positive. These results are particularly useful in contexts where the acceptance of HSR is weak, as they allow policymakers to identify adequate compensation measures to reduce the gap and increase territorial cohesion.