The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany

In this paper, we investigate the degree to which productivity adjusted deviations from PPP influence the U.S. inbound FDI. Our results show a significant negative relationship between productivity adjusted misalignments and the U.S. inbound FDI from Germany and the United Kingdom in the short-run, and a positive relationship in the long-run. Hence, indicating that a positive misalignment—undervalued U.S. dollar—leads to a decrease in the U.S. inbound FDI in the short-run and to an increase in the long-run. No significant evidence is found for Japan. Interestingly, unadjusted real exchange rate changes show no statistically significant relationship with respect to the U.S. inbound FDI. The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments.     

New evidence on the link between exchange rates and asset-seeking acquisition FDI

Blonigen (1997) proposes a link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) motivated to acquire complementary assets (i.e., asset-seeking acquisition FDI). However, previous studies have only examined this hypothesis with acquisition FDI data from a country source that are mostly U.S. inbound. In this paper I examine the hypothesis using the acquisition FDI data from multiple country sources that are inbound for various countries. I find evidence in support of this hypothesis for U.S. inbound acquisition FDI from multiple country sources, but not inbound acquisition FDI for other various developed countries.     

An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads,purchasing power parity disequilibria,and forward premium asymmetry

Using a panel data approach, we find statistically significant evidence that bid-ask spreads and deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are related to the forward prediction error of ten major U.S. dollar exchange rates over the post Plaza Accord period. Previous literature suggests that bid-ask spreads proxy for liquidity risk and deviations from PPP are a source of time-varying risk premiums. Additionally, the paper provides evidence that the forward discount bias is asymmetric with respect to the sign of the forward premium as well as to an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar.     

Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information

This study investigates whether or not new information affects the predictive capability of forward and spot foreign exchange rates symmetrically during periods of rising as opposed to falling currency values. Statistically significant different intercept and slope coefficients are found between the periods of U.S. dollar appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation. Further, the predictive ability of the two models differs between opposite trends in foreign exchange values.     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Foreign Currency Translation Reporting and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

This study further explores a structural break in the relation between stock returns of firms with foreign currency positions and lagged exchange rate changes (exchange rate exposure effect) documented in Bartov and Bodnar (1994). We examine whether changes in the financial accounting reporting of foreign currency positions from SFAS No. 52 might have improved investors' ability to characterize firms' economic exchange rate exposures, and thus the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value. Our findings indicate that only firms reporting using the dollar as the functional currency (i.e., those reporting as if they were still under SFAS No. 8) retain a significant relation between the lagged change in the dollar and firm value in the post-SFAS No. 52 period. For firms reporting using the foreign currency as the functional currency (i.e., those who switched to the new translation method) the significant lagged relation disappears. This is consistent with the use of a foreign currency as the functional currency under SFAS No. 52 facilitating valuation of U.S. firms with foreign operations.     

A revisit to economic exposure of U.S. multinational corporations

To shed light on the influence of U.S. major trade partners’ currencies on MNCs’ firm values, this study investigates the asymmetric effects and the determinants of appreciated and depreciated economic exposure of the U.S. MNCs. Our empirical results reveal several findings: (1) The influences of exchange rate fluctuation on stock returns vary enormously for different currencies. (2) During the U.S. dollar appreciating period, MNCs benefit very little from this appreciation against major trade partners’ currencies, but most MNCs see harmful impacts from a U.S. dollar appreciation against the Brazilian real. (3) During the U.S. dollar depreciating period, most U.S. MNCs benefit from this depreciation against the European Monetary Union’s euro, Mexican new peso and Brazilian real; however, they overall suffer losses against the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound. (4) The level of foreign sales is the key determinant of economic exposure.     

推动澳大利亚入境游的宏观环境因素综述

澳大利亚不仅是南半球经济最发达的国家,还凭借其独特的自然风光和出色的人文景观吸引了全球游客的光临。本文针对澳大利亚入境游的文献资料进行了研究调查与分析,重点放在两大宏观因素上,社会文化因素(恐怖主义和兴趣旅游)和经济因素(汇率和中国市场)。通过调研本文指出,澳大利亚入境游人数在一个相对安全的国际环境下呈现出稳定增长的趋势,尤其在开发兴趣旅游方面表现出色,并且中国市场对澳大利亚入境游起到了不可小视的推动作用。全球经济回暖后,澳币汇率近五年的变化对入境游造成了附加影响,当澳币增值时澳大利亚入境游发展速度放缓,反之加快。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

Japanese and U.S. interventions in the yen/U.S. dollar market: estimating the monetary authorities’ reaction functions

This paper uses recently released official data on the foreign exchange market interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities in the yen/U.S. dollar market during the period 1991–2001 to examine the motivation for the intervention policy. We also compare the Japanese intervention policy with the U.S. intervention policy. Our results suggest that the Japanese authorities regularly responded to deviations of the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate from a short-term and a long-term exchange rate target. By contrast, the U.S. authorities intervened only occasionally and seemed to have merely reinforced Japanese interventions.     

Comparing exchange rate forecasting models: Accuracy versus profitability

In this paper we compare the rankings of alternative exchange rate forecasting models using two different evaluation criteria: forecast accuracy and profitability in forward market speculation. Either or both of these criteria may be useful to the practitioner depending on the forecasting application. We use both time-series and static and dynamic structural models to construct forecasts for the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar and German mark/U.S. dollar exchange rates over the period 1976 :12–1984: 9. Our results confirm earlier findings that simple time-series models such as the random walk rank highest in forecast accuracy. The random walk also ranks high in terms of profitability for the German mark, but for the Canadian dollar the profitability rankings are quite different than the accuracy results. For both currencies we find that some models are very profitable in forward speculation, which is evidence against the speculative efficiency hypothesis but may be consistent with the existence of risk premia in foreign exchange markets.     

Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a Pooled Mean Group estimator. We find that exchange rates in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia have converged in recent years with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. Yet, in 2002, they were overvalued in Hungary but undervalued in Slovenia. We also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied, except Slovenia, were overvalued in 2002 if real effective exchange rates were used. In particular, the Hungarian currency was found to have the largest extent of misalignment.     

An Empirical Examination of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: Applying the Filter Rule Strategy to Intra-Daily DM/$ Exchange Rates

Testing the existence of excess filter rule trading profits is one of the weak-form tests of market efficiency. Using intra-daily Deutsche mark/U.S. dollar exchange rate data from February 1985 to August 1989, this study applies the x' statistic in Sweeney (1986) to examine whether significant excess filter rule profits exist. The results show that many combinations of in and out filters generate significant x' statistics. Among them, in and out filters around 0.05–0.1 % generally lead to the highest excess filter rule profit. Furthermore, the performance of the filters remains stable when the sample period is broken down into three equal subperiods. Such findings indicate that there may be inefficiency in the intra-daily Deutsche mark/U.S. dollar market. An investor may earn excess profit in this market by applying the filter rule strategy.     

汇率波动对外商直接投资的影响 ——基于知识资本模型从产业角度的实证检验

本文运用知识资本模型分别从国别和产业的角度对汇率波动与国际直接投资(FDI)进行实证检验。该模型考虑到资源禀赋对FDI的影响,并将FDI细分为垂直型和水平型;同时,为了使计量更加精确,本文还将模型中汇率的波动分解为一价定律失效导致的波动和不可解释的原因导致的波动;最后,本文还检验了美元盯住制对FDI的影响。结果发现,东道国货币贬值是否有利于吸引FDI取决于该国FDI是以水平型还是垂直型为主,同时,美元盯住制对FDI没有促进作用。     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.     

Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock,FX and VIX markets

The U.S. presidential election is one of the global political events that have the profound effects on the Global Financial Markets (GFMs). The aim of the study is to examine Stock, FX and VIX markets under the U.S. presidential election 2016. The findings strongly suggest that ‘U.S. presidential election effects’ hold in equity and FX markets across the GFMs. The empirical outcome signifies that markets are inefficient in the short-run (election year) and allows the opportunity to make abnormal gains from the market. The ‘Republican president elect’ has shown negative effects on the Nifty50, S&PASX200, and IPC equity markets while FTSE100, DJIA, Top40, EuroStoxx50 and Nikkei225 have reported positive returns. The Trumps’ proposal on international trade has caused major loss in the global currency market against the U.S. dollar. The investors’ sentiment to be measured extremely low on the poll announcement day but VXJ and AXVI based market participants have shown very high degree of concern. The Bearish-run election effects to be observed during the election period while post election period has shown Bull-run effects (Asia-pacific markets).     

Inbound foreign direct investment and domestic entrepreneurial activity

There is an interesting and lively debate going on in the academic literature intersecting trade policy and entrepreneurship. Several studies have shown that inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative effect on rates of entrepreneurship, while others find the opposite – a higher rate of new firm creation associated with increased inbound FDI. We study the phenomenon using a cross-country analysis of data on entrepreneurs from 38 countries and from 2001 to ? 2008. Results indicate that inbound FDI has negative associations with five types of entrepreneurship (nascent, new, early-stage, established, and high-growth) measured by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey. In our discussion, we argue that our study supports the contention that studies counting new limited liability company registrations do not always measure the same thing as entrepreneurial entries (self-reports), leading to different, even opposite results when subjected to empirical analysis.     

Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?

Constructing a proxy for mispricing with 15 well-known stock market anomalies, we examine whether actively managed mutual funds exploit mispricing. We find that, in the aggregate, mutual funds overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks relative to a passive benchmark, and this tendency is explained by the ill-motivated trades of agency-prone fund managers. In addition, we find that mutual funds with the highest weights in undervalued stocks outperform those with the highest weights in overvalued stocks by an annualized three-factor alpha of 2.12% (t = 2.38), implying that slanting portfolios based on our proxy helps mutual funds improve performance.     

美国金融危机对我国贸易顺差的影响及对策研究

美国金融危机影响已由虚拟经济扩散到实体经济，由发达经济体扩展到新兴经济体。持续多年的贸易顺差是当前我国经济增长的主要推动力，为我国积累了巨额的外汇储备。然而，金融危机导致我国贸易顺差额大幅收窄，FDI连续十个月同比负增长及经济增速放缓。为了应对美国金融危机给我国对外贸易、经济带来的消极影响。为此，建议从加大创新力度，提高出口企业产品附加值，转变出口市场结构等三方面来寻求应对危机的有效办法。