国际直接投资对发展中国家的经济影响

20世纪90年代以来,经济全球化的迅猛发展使国际直接投资产生了很多重要变化。在这种新的环境和条件下,这些变化使得国际直接投资对发展中国家产生了新的经济影响。认识到这种变化,对于发展中国家吸引外资,以及最大程度地利用外资,同时限制其不利影响,都是有积极意义的。     

发展中国家经济安全问题的制度分析

在市场经济全球化迅速发展的背景下,制度因素已成为影响发展中国家经济安全的最大瓶颈.因此,拟从新制度主义的视角,从制度结构和制度供求两个维度对发展中国家经济安全的影响机制进行深入系统的阐释,在此基础之上,提出应对经济安全问题的具体对策和措施.     

Inflation‐Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

There is growing evidence from multi‐country studies indicating that there is a turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth beyond which the detrimental effects of high inflation offset the stimulating effects of mild inflation on growth. However, it is not clear whether it is appropriate to assume an identical turning point in the inflation and growth relation across countries at various stages of development. Using a non‐linear specification and the data from four groups of countries at various stages of development, this paper examines the possibility for a family rather than a single inverted U relation across countries at various stages of development. The estimated turning points are found to vary widely from as high as 15% per year for the lower‐middle‐income countries to 11% for the low‐income countries, and 5% for the upper‐middle‐income countries. No statistically detectable, long‐run relationship between inflation and growth is evident for the OECD countries. The results indicate the potential bias in the estimation of inflation–growth nexus that may result from combining various countries at different levels of development. The existence of such a degree of heterogeneity across countries at various stages of development also suggests the inappropriateness of setting a single, uniform numerical policy target applicable to all (developing) countries.     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

发展中国家和地区汇率制度变革及其对中国的启示

本文介绍和分析了一些发展中国家和地区的汇率制度变革的经验和教训以及对中国人民币汇率制度改革可供参考的思路，这些启示将是重要和有价值的。     

气候变化背景下发展中国家的低碳经济发展

面对气候变化对人类发展的挑战,没有哪个国家能够独善其身,也没有哪个国家能够独立应对,而且气候变化对发展中国家的冲击比发达国家更甚。因此发展低碳经济是发展中国家的必由之路。由于技术和资金缺乏是制约发展中国家经济转型的最大障碍,所以文章侧重分析了如何在国际合作框架下实现低碳技术转移和解决资金瓶颈问题。     

税收与收入分配:基于发展中国家个人所得税的思考

对于税收分配作用的不同理解和看法导致了税制设计方案的差异。发达国家普遍采用的累进综合个人所得税在发展中国家里面临着更高的管理成本、遵从成本、经济效率成本和政治成本,因而可能不是发展中国家实现收入分配职能的最优策略。对于中国而言,未来个人所得税的改革方向应当是在合理确定劳动所得和资本所得税负水平的基础上,根据纳税人家庭人口数量及就业状况对费用减除标准加以细分。在商品税方面,对日常生活必需品和农业生产资料免征增值税,将更多奢侈品纳入消费税的征收范围,并对与低收入群体日常生活密切相关的服务项目免征营业税。     

现行国际货币体系的不公正性与发展中国家的策略

现行国际货币体系的基本特征是储备货币多元化和以浮动汇率制为主流的汇率制度选择自由化，发展中国家似乎摆脱了原有的布雷顿森林体系和纪律和约束。但实际上，在现行国际货币体系下，发展中国家在储备货币依赖、江率制度选择、国际收支调节和抑制国际投资本冲击等方面均受到不利的影响（甚至是伤害）。本文首先论述了现行国际货币体系对发展中国家不公正性的表现，然后深入分析了其根源，最后提出了发展中国家应采取的若干策略。     

规模、路径与动因:发展中国家企业的FDI行为探析

发展中国家的企业不仅关心如何通过FDI将利润最大化,也关心提高一般性经营资源的收益。本文应用二阶段理论,综合考虑两个市场、两个阶段和两种状态等因素,对优势企业和弱势企业的决策背景进行了比较,分析了制度学习效应、资源转移效应和国内市场竞争效应等发展中国家企业FDI动因,建立了弱势企业FDI规模的决策模型,该模型也可以用于发展中国家企业FDI行为的路径选择。     

巴塞尔新资本协议对发展中国家潜在影响评述

巴塞尔新资本协议自1999年6月提出征求意见稿,到2004年6月26日正式公布最终稿,并于2006年底在10国集团开始实施。新资本协议从出现就成为众人关注和研究的焦点,围绕它的争论也一直没有停息过。人们纷纷对新资本协议的复杂性、风险敏感性以及在不同市场环境中的适应性,尤其对发展中国家的影响等方面进行了广泛的研究。本文将对此方面的研究成果、最新进展和现实意义进行总结和概括,并且指出存在的分歧和问题,以便更深入地研究。     

Telecommunications Investment and Traffic in Developing Countries: The Effects of International Settlement Rate Reforms

In 1997 the FCC ordered sharp decreases in international settlement rates (bilaterally negotiated telecommunication rates) between the U.S. and other countries. Developing countries, which received about $35 billion in net settlement payments from U.S. carriers between 1985 and 1998, claim that payments finance telecom investment and that reduced rates, and therefore payments, will harm investment. Using a panel dataset of 179 countries from 1985–1998, I find settlement rates negatively correlated with international telecom traffic, suggesting that reduced rates will stimulate traffic. I also find no evidence that payments finance investment as measured by telephone penetration and telecommunications equipment imports.     

Improving the Performance of Contingent Valuation Studies in Developing Countries

This paper discusses three main reasons why so many of the contingentvaluation studies conducted in developing countries are so bad. First,the contingent valuation surveys themselves are often poorly administeredand executed. Second, contingent valuation scenarios are often very poorlycrafted. Third, few CV studies conducted in developing countries aredesigned to test whether some of the key assumptions that the researchermade were the right ones, and whether the results are robust with respectto simple variations in research design and survey method. The paper concludesthat research on stated preference methods in developing countries iscritically important to the successful implementation of these methodsbecause (1) there is no empirical evidence to suggest that rapid,”streamlined” CV surveys yield reliable, accurate results, and (2)there is a significant risk that the current push for cheaper, simplerCV studies could discredit the methodology itself. Moreover, the policydebates to which CV researchers are asked to contribute are often oftremendous importance to the well-being of households in developingcountries. Because the costs of policy mistakes can prove tragic, itis critical that VC researchers push for excellence in this researchenterprise and that funding agencies think more carefully about thevalue of policy-relevant information in the fields in which thecontingent valuation method is being used to study household preferencesand behavior (e.g., water and sanitation services, urban air pollution,soil erosion, deforestation, biodiversity, watershed management,ecosystem valuation, vaccines for the poor).     

Privatization and capital formation in developing countries: an empirical analysis

The spur for privatization and its impact on economic performance have been analysed from many perspectives, including microeconomics, macroeconomics, and institutional economics. Previous research has focused on efficiency reasons for privatization at the level of the firm, and the relative performance of state‐owned enterprises and privately owned firms. This article investigates the macroeconomic facet of privatization with particular attention paid to the relation between privatization and capital formation in developing countries. Our study uses recent World Bank data on privatization for 105 countries over the time period 1988–2003. We explore the impact of privatization on capital formation by conducting two‐stage least squares and ordinary least squares estimations within three time frames. Our findings indicate that the effect of privatization on capital formation varies across regions and time frames. In general, privatization is neutral with regard to investment.     

经济全球化对发展中国家经济发展的影响与对策

随着经济全球化的发展,经济全球化自身存在的诸多不足与局限也日益显现.这些不足和局限对发展中国家的经济发展也带来了多方面的消极影响.对此,发展中国家需要在国内和国际两个层面建立起有效的发展机制,才能实现自己的经济发展目标.     

Autocracy,Democracy, and FDI Inflows to the Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between political regimes and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the developing countries for a sample of 134 countries over the 1983–2002 period. Using two categorical measures of regime type and three different measures of FDI, this study finds that, regardless of the measures of regime type, democracies are not significantly associated with either FDI in level or FDI as a ratio to GDP; democracy is positively related to a higher level of per capita FDI, but this result is not robust to alternative measures of political regime. Taken as a whole, there is no evidence of a systematic relationship between democracy and FDI inflows. This result suggests that being a democracy does not help attract higher levels of FDI.     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

中国对发展中国家出口的地区结构与影响因素分析

中国与发展中国家的贸易联系越来越密切.在当前金融危机下,促进中国对发展中国家的出口具有重要的意义.通过对中国与164个发展中国家贸易关系的考察,揭示了中国对不同地区和不同发展程度发展中国家出口的地区结构和贸易潜力以及决定因素.从政策上分析,中国可以利用区域性的优惠贸易安排和"走出去"战略,进一步促进与发展中国家特别是非洲和美洲中低收入国家的贸易联系.