中国金融发展与贫困减少的经验分析

本文利用向量自回归模型分别就中国整体、城镇、农村的金融发展对相应贫困减少的长、短期影响和Granger因果关系进行经验研究。结果表明:(1)中国农村金融发展对农村贫困减少具有短期的促进作用,但效果不明显。从长期看,农村金融发展抑制了农村贫困减少,但这两者之间不存在Granger因果关系。(2)在很短的时期内,中国城镇金融发展加深了城镇贫困人口的贫困程度,甚至进一步恶化了城镇贫困人口收入分配状况。但从长期看,城镇金融发展有利于城镇贫困减少,而且金融发展是贫困深度和贫困强度变化的Granger原因。(3)中国整体金融发展在短期内缓解了全国贫困状况并改善了贫困人口收入分配情况,但从长期看,它没有成为促进贫困减少的重要因素。因此,进一步深化中国金融发展,特别是加大对农村金融发展力度,对于解决中国贫困问题具有重要意义。     

解决收入差距扩大问题 构建社会主义和谐社会

<正> 改革开放以来,我国由基尼系数所反映出来的收入差距,总的来说呈现一种上升的趋势。一方面,一部分地区和一部分人在党的富民政策的引导下.走上了富裕道路,并有上亿贫困人口摆脱了贫困;另一方面,到2002年底,仍然有2820万农村贫困人口没有脱贫.城市依靠各种救济维持生活的也有2000多万人。据世界银行的统计数字,我国的基尼系数在改革开放前为0.16,2003年已经至0.458,超过了国际公认的警戒线0.4,     

贫困县“清零”后,脱贫攻坚的路还有多远

留给全面打赢脱贫攻坚战的时间还剩下不到9个月,随着今年2月底3月初一批省份密集宣布贫困县"清零",离2015年定下的"我国现行标准下农村贫困人口实现脱贫,贫困县全部摘帽,解决区域性整体贫困"的脱贫攻坚目标又近了一步。贫困县全部摘帽是脱贫攻坚三个目标之一,尽管我国贫困县数量已从2012年的832个缩减至2019年年底的52个,但贫困县摘帽其实仅仅被视为"期中考试",那么,贫困县摘帽后距离贫困人口全面脱贫还有多远?     

中国经济增长的减贫效果评估

本文采用Kakwani等人提出的测度方法--减贫经济增长率,定量分析了我国20世纪80年代以来经济增长对于城乡贫困的影响.结论显示,经济增长对高阶贫困指数的影响大于低阶贫困指数,表明反贫困成本(转移支付金额)相对于贫困人口而言,对经济增长更加敏感.同时,减贫经济增长率的波动幅度要明显高于实际收入增长率,这意味着贫困人口更易受宏观经济波动的冲击.因此,保持宏观经济的稳定以及改善收入分配、加强社会保障等有利于社会公正.     

兑现庄严承诺 铸就历史伟业——从《人类减贫的中国实践》白皮书看中国脱贫攻坚伟大历程

这是一个彪炳史册的人间奇迹——8年时间,近1亿农村贫困人口现行标准下摆脱绝对贫困,我国脱贫攻坚战取得了全面胜利。这是一个书写历史的时间坐标——在迎来中国共产党成立100周年的重要时刻,我们党在团结带领人民创造美好生活、实现共同富裕的道路上迈出了坚实的一大步。     

刘伟:任何困难都不能阻挡脱贫攻坚脚步

中国人民大学校长刘伟近期撰文指出,疫情增加了脱贫攻坚难度,但阻挡不了我们实现全面脱贫的脚步。到2020年我国现行标准下农村贫困人口实现脱贫,是我们党的庄严承诺消除贫困是当代世界发展面临的一个重要课题。     

经济增长与收入分布对新疆城市居民贫困变动的影响

本文采用相对贫困线方法研究新疆城市居民2000年与2003年的贫困变化程度,利用FGT(Foster-Greer-Thorbecke)贫困指数分析了新疆城市居民的贫困率、贫困差距、贫困深度的变化,通过贫困指数FGT变化的分解分析,说明经济增长提高可支配收入有助于减少贫困,收入分布差距的减少也是减少贫困程度的重要因素之一。     

国外建立长效脱贫机制的做法及启示

减贫是一个复杂的过程,贫困退出的真正目标在于长期脱贫,而不仅仅是项目退出。一方面退出中的资格重新认证非常重要,另一方面退出后的收入干预措施也要跟进。我国在当前精准扶贫过程中,尤其要注意建立中国特色的长效脱贫机制。     

内蒙古地区精准扶贫的路径研究

内蒙古是地处中国北部边疆的少数民族自治区.据统计,目前还有56万贫困人口,"十三五"时期的脱贫工作仍任重道远,必须在现有基础上不断创新扶贫开发思路和方法.为了使内蒙古扶贫措施针对性更强,最大限度地激发贫困群众内生动力,本文从治本、治标两个维度,教育、文化、生态、产业、资金五个层面,提出了内蒙古精准扶贫、精准脱贫之策.     

云南藏区精准脱贫问题与对策

改革开放以来,我国六亿多人口成功脱贫,成为全球首个实现联合国制定的贫困人口比例减半目标的国家,为人类减贫事业做出了巨大贡献。在新的历史时期,我们国家的贫困状况呈现出新的态势,正处于相对贫困与绝对贫困共存的一个双重性阶段。云南迪庆藏区作为云南省藏族居民聚居的重要区域,其贫困状况充分体现了这一双重性特点。因此,我们必须主动探索、勇于实践,坚持经济发展,脱贫在前,推动经济建设和精准脱贫工作向纵深发展,促进云南迪庆藏区精准脱贫各项工作科学发展。     

发展、分配对反贫困的影响:2002—2010

文章通过分解FGT贫困指数,模拟出2002-2010年中国的经济发展和收入分配各自对反贫困的贡献率。实证结果发现,当前以发展促减贫的开发式扶贫政策依然有效,但是收入分配恶化却拖累了发展带来的减贫成效,且对反贫困的影响越来越大。必须及时调整反贫困战略,通过改善收入再分配让贫困人群分享改革发展的成果。     

External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa

Abstract: The paper uses a simple macroeconomic model to estimate the impact of debt relief and terms of trade shocks on growth and poverty in African countries. For the 18 heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) that reached the enhanced HIPC decision point by end‐December 2000, the basic quantitative findings are that HIPC debt relief has boosted economic growth in these countries by an average of 2.9 percent per annum and that the computed result of this increase in growth is a reduction in poverty by an average of 2.2 percent per annum. However, the paper shows that recent deteriorations in the terms of trade have counter‐balanced these positive effects by lowering growth by an average of 2.0 percent per annum and by increasing poverty by an average of 1.3 percent per annum. Clearly, much of the positive impact emanating from the HIPC Initiative has been eroded due to recent deteriorations in the terms of trade. The paper also estimates the net effect on growth and poverty of the recently agreed 100 percent multilateral debt relief. This is predicted to boost economic growth by an average of 5 percent per annum and reduce poverty by about 5.3 percent per annum for the group of all African HIPCs. The paper concludes that 100 percent debt relief is crucial for Africa, but that more aid and policies need to be focused on a long‐term development strategy that fosters the necessary structural transformation.     

Assessing Poverty Trends in Indonesia by International Poverty Lines

Indonesia has made well-documented and drastic progress in raising average incomes and reducing poverty. This article adds to the literature by providing a complementary perspective of poverty between 1984 and 2011. We discuss the evolution of poverty in Indonesia using international poverty lines—$1.25 per person per day (in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) and $2.00 per day, and we add $10.00 per day. We generate estimates of poverty since 1984 and make projections based on various trends in growth and inequality. We find that Indonesia has the potential to become a high-income country by around 2025 and end $1.25-per-day and $2.00-perday poverty by 2030, but this will require strong economic growth and favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may mean that a large proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to poverty for some time to come, suggesting that public policy priorities will need to balance insurance and risk-management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy.     

Economic growth and child poverty reduction in Bangladesh and China

This paper analyzes child poverty in Bangladesh and China during periods of rapid economic growth. It compares the extent as well as profile of child poverty in both countries. Comparisons on the extent of child poverty over time and across countries are made using a decomposition framework attributing child poverty differences to differences in three components: mean child income, demographic circumstances and the distribution of child income. Child poverty is found to be more extensive in Bangladesh than in China, and is very much a problem for rural children in both countries. The results show that economic growth can reduce child poverty but does not always do so. For understanding changes over time and across countries in the extent of child poverty, it can be necessary to also consider changes/differences in the distribution of child income as well as in the demographic composition.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

The determinants of rural and urban household poverty in the North West province of South Africa

Based on standard poverty measures, the extent of poverty in the North West province is on average worse than in South Africa. For instance, the poverty gap ratio for North West is twice that of the South African average, and the FGT index is three times as high. This article therefore aims to identify the determinants of rural and urban poverty in the North West province of South Africa. Using data gathered from a survey of 593 black households across the province, probit model estimates suggest that the major significant determinants of household poverty in both rural and urban areas are education and household size. A difference between rural and urban poverty is, first, that extra female adults in a rural household raise the probability of poverty. Secondly, having a migrant (out) worker as head of the household in rural areas lowers the probability of poverty, while this does not apply to urban households. A sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the results over a range of poverty lines reveals that the impact of education is much stronger for poorer households than for more wealthy households.     

精准扶贫背景下江苏省农业科技创新效率研究

农业科技创新在精准扶贫中起到至关重要的作用.从4个维度选择分析要素,基于2013—2018年江苏省各市的面板数据,运用DEA模型和Malmquist指数对江苏省农业科技创新效率进行实证分析.结果表明:江苏省13个市区全要素生产力指数均值大于1,技术进步是其主要增长动力;除规模效率和技术进步率,宿迁各指标均低于省均值,纯技术效率是主限制因素;常州等3市的DEA有效不稳定.深度分析得,江苏省农业科技创新水平较高但区域间不平衡;宿迁市农业科技人员研发水平较低;常州等3市农业科技成果转化能力不足.     

我国农村普惠金融的减贫增收效应研究——基于4023户农户微观数据的断点回归

文章利用全国27省份517个村庄的4023户农户微观调研数据，使用模糊断点回归方法，对农村普惠金融的贫困减缓效应和经济增长效应进行了实证检验。结果发现，在东部地区，普惠金融的发展降低了绝对贫困和相对贫困水平，促进了经济增长；在中部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平和相对贫困水平的下降，对于经济增长的促进效用不明显；在西部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平的下降，但增加了相对贫困并抑制了经济增长。基于此，文章提出在农村普惠金融的推广过程中，应注意其发展战略实施的区域差别化，以实现普惠金融积极效应的最大发挥。     

Informal Credit,Usury, or Support? A Case Study for Vietnam

The informal credit market remains an important source of finance for the poor in Vietnam. Yet, little if anything is known about the impact of informal loans on poverty and inequality, and the Vietnamese government has no policies towards the informal credit market. In the present study paper, we found that the effect of credit from friends and relatives on per capita expenditure is positive but not statistically significant. Meanwhile, the effect of credit from private moneylenders on per capita expenditure is positive and statistically significant. Borrowing from private moneylenders increases per capita expenditure of households by around 15%. Further, it reduced the poverty incidence of borrowers by around 8.5 percentage points in 2006 and significantly decreases the poverty gap index and the poverty‐severity index. Borrowing from private moneylenders also reduces expenditure inequality, albeit at a very small magnitude.     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.