Accident Year Development, Bonus Banks, and Insurance Incentive Compensation

Insurance claims can take years to resolve, which makes insurance performance measurement—and incentive compensation based on such measurement— challenging. The insurance industry utilizes a method of analysis called accident year analysis to manage the temporal challenge inherent in insurance claims. Despite the managerial and economic utility of this method of analysis, it has generally not been applied to incentive compensation programs for insurance company executives and employees. This article will explain accident year analysis, and will show how it can be merged with the bonus bank concept and the Insurance Performance Measure, which is an insurance economic profit metric, to construct an economically consistent insurance incentive compensation program.     

银行保险的制度变迁理论分析以及对我国的启示

20世纪80年代以来，无论是一直实施混业经营的欧洲，还是近几年重新走上混业经营之路的美国，银行保险都成为一种潮流和趋势。银行保险业务的产生及发展，既源于微观领域经营环境和竞争环境的变化，也源于宏观领域制度管制的放松和信息技术的迅猛发展，更源于银行保险经济学机理带来的范围经济和协同效益。银行保险作为一种制度创新的产物，更多地体现为从销售渠道创新到业务产品创新，再到组织模式创新的金融一体化的制度变迁过程。本文从制度变迁理论的角度对银行保险的产生动因以及演变发展进行分析，以期对我国银行保险的走向提供借鉴。     

银行保险的制度变迁理论分析以及对我国的启示

20世纪80年代以来,无论是一直实施混业经营的欧洲,还是近几年重新走上混业经营之路的美国,银行保险都成为一种潮流和趋势。银行保险业务的产生及发展,既源于微观领域经营环境和竞争环境的变化,也源于宏观领域制度管制的放松和信息技术的迅猛发展,更源于银行保险经济学机理带来的范围经济和协同效益。银行保险作为一种制度创新的产物,更多地体现为从销售渠道创新到业务产品创新,再到组织模式创新的金融一体化的制度变迁过程。本文从制度变迁理论的角度对银行保险的产生动因以及演变发展进行分析,以期对我国银行保险的走向提供借鉴。     

Employee Selection as a Control System

Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study investigates this idea empirically using personnel and lending data from a financial services organization that implemented a highly decentralized business model. I exploit variation in this organization in whether or not employees are selected via channels that are likely to sort on the alignment of their preferences with organizational objectives. I find that employees selected through such channels are more likely to use decision‐making authority in the granting and structuring of consumer loans than those who are not. Conditional on using decision‐making authority, their decisions are also less risky ex post. These findings demonstrate employee selection as an important, but understudied, element of organizational control systems.     

中国长期护理保险财政负担能力研究

本文通过测算城乡居民和城镇职工长期护理保险需求,构建医疗保险精算模型,对中国长期护理保险财政负担能力展开研究。结果发现:依托城乡居民医疗保险建立的长期护理保险会增加财政支出,但是支出规模在可控范围内;依托城镇职工医疗保险建立的长期护理保险会威胁职工医疗保险统筹基金的安全,因而不可持续,但是该问题可以通过改革职工医疗保险个人账户来解决;中国长期护理保险应该采用“个人缴费+医疗保险基金补助+财政补助”的模式,且个人缴费最高不超过15%;中国长期护理保险财政负担水平总体较低,财政有能力维持长期护理保险的运行。对此,我国应尽快正式建立全国性的长期护理保险制度和财政对长期护理保险的投入机制。     

中国保险业发展的瓶颈及对策分析

中国保险业经过多年的高速发展后,面临税收政策、人才等瓶颈的制约,海外业务的发展也一直裹足不前。在行业调整转型和持续健康发展的新要求下,要推动保险业的进一步发展,我们认为一方面国家应该出台相关的政策,鼓励老百姓购买商业保险,另一方面保险公司应该通过交叉销售办法,挖掘保险市场需求。同时,应该借鉴国外优质的教育培训资源培养保险人才,为保险业走向海外市场提供智力支持。     

“Understanding Relationships Using Copulas,” by Edward Frees and Emiliano Valdez,January 1998

Presenteeism occurs when employees are present at the workplace but cannot perform at their best because of ill-health or other reasons, while absenteeism occurs when employees are absent from the workplace. Although absenteeism is important, researchers now say presenteeism can be more costly to businesses and may be responsible for as much as three times the health-related lost productivity as compared to absenteeism and may cost the U.S. economy as much as $150 billion per year. Given the cost of absenteeism and presenteeism, one of the objectives of this article is to provide actuaries with the techniques and insights needed to design disability insurance policies that take into account the dynamics of absenteeism and presenteeism. To this end we develop a simple multistate sickness-disability model of the evolution of an employee’s health over time. We assume employees receive sick pay, the size of which depends on their health state, and there is a government-sponsored unemployment insurance program. In our model it is possible for employees in good health to avoid work by staying home, which is called shirking. To reduce shirking, the employer decides to check the health status of a certain percentage of employees who “call in sick.” Given the sick-pay structure, the probability of a health check, and the existence of unemployment insurance, employees develop rational strategies about whether to engage in shirking, absenteeism, or presenteeism. These strategies are captured in a set of Volterra integral equations. We use these Volterra integral equations to show how the employer can design a disability insurance plan that can incentivise employees to eliminate shirking and to act in a manner that will maximize the employer’s expected profits.     

美国保险理论研究综述:历史与现状

美国作为当前世界上最为发达的保险市场之一,在实务领域引领世界保险业发展的同时,也为各种保险理论思想的研究探索提供了一个交流的舞台,很多创新性的研究方法和研究模式均来自美国保险理论研究。本文从理论研究的观点整合和代表人物分析出发,将美国保险理论研究的发展过程概括为三个主要阶段进行叙述,然后从五个部分对美国保险理论研究的内容进行介绍,最后得出的主要结论是我国当前的保险理论研究要重视跨学科的定量研究,在重视对基础性理论进行长期持续研究的同时强调研究范式的转变。     

我国城镇职工基本养老保险可持续发展的研究

运用因子分析法,选取了13个影响城镇职工基本养老保险可持续发展的指标,并建立综合评价模型,对我国各地区城镇职工基本养老保险的可持续发展程度进行定量分析与综合评价,最后总结出经济发展情况、人口年龄结构、养老保险基金来源渠道与养老保险内部负担等四个指标体系对我国城镇职工基本养老保险的可持续发展产生重要的影响,并据此提出相关的政策建议。     

Human Resource Management in the Voluntary Sector: Challenges and Opportunities

This article discusses issues facing personnel specialists within the voluntary sector who are trying to implement people management policies associated with the Human Resource Management (HRM) model. It outlines the pressures for change in management practice in the voluntary sector and then focuses more precisely on the definition of HRM theory, providing a rationale for voluntary agencies to develop policies and practices. The difficulties managers and personnel practitioners may face when attempting to implement these practices are described. Finally, an agenda for further research in this area is proposed.     

经济周期视野下的中国寿险业发展态势探析

运用宏观经济学的研究方法,从经济周期视野对我国寿险业的发展态势进行了探讨。首先,对寿险业发展的宏观脉络进行了分析,认为寿险业的产品特征具有较强的亲周期性,通过HP滤波进行趋势周期分解后证实寿险业的周期性波动幅度比产险业显著。其次,对寿险业发展的当前态势进行了分析,维持了寿险业长期趋势向好的总体判断,但认为经济周期对寿险业的负面冲击效应较大,短期内寿险业难以恢复高增长态势。最后,对寿险业的发展提出了若干政策建议,认为准确定位、改善监管和优化环境是促进寿险业可持续发展的当务之急。     

全面开放对中国寿险产业组织的影响

在全面开放的背景下,中国寿险业的产业组织面临重构.寿险公司占有市场份额与其竞争努力程度负相关.国有背景的寿险公司及中资寿险公司具有一定的行为优势.较高的集中度代表较强的市场势力,必将导致较高绩效;市场竞争行为越激烈时,绩效越会因竞争消磨而表现欠佳.市场结构的改变可能会对不同的竞争行为模式产生差异化结果.应对全面开放,需从寿险公司、保险行业以及保险监管部门几方面进行改革.     

Betriebsunterbrechungsversicherung bei kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen

The business interruption caused by a property claim is an existential risk both for large industrial companies and for small to medium enterprises (SME). It is especially relevant for companies working on a more complex sales and production infrastructure. Statistics show that in case of a large property claim the cost of the accompanying business interruption claim frequently exceeds the property claim. In Germany, however, the share of companies opting for business interruption insurance is much smaller than those opting for property insurance. This is especially true for SME that can hardly cover the risk themselves. The goal of this paper is to analyze the insurance decision for a business interruption policy with a special focus on SME. As a database we use the results of a representative survey among 1802 German SME with up to 100 employees. Our results show that the decision for a business interruption policy is not only dependent on hard factors such as company size and industry, but also driven by the so-called “insurance mentality”, which includes risk aversion, insurance know-how and price-sensitivity.     

The Impact of Position Difference on Employees’ Organizational Commitment After the Merger of Life Insurance Companies

We investigate the impacts of job position and survey time period on employee’s organizational commitment of insurance company after the merger. Our results show that both job position and survey time period are significant determinants to employee’s organizational commitment. Results also show that there is no interaction effect between survey time period and job position. For each year, during the survey time period, the mean of organization commitment of agent employees is significantly higher than staff employees. The mean difference of organizational commitment between agent and staff employees shrank year by year during the survey time period.     

Ökonomische Analyse der Regulierung von Sicherungseinrichtungen

In 2003, the German insurance industry faced the first life insurer insolvency for nearly 75 years. Although the crisis was overcome by transferring the insurance contracts to ‘Protektor’, a guarantee institution based on the industry’s self-regulation, the German government set off a judicial initiative on insurance guarantee schemes. However, a thorough economic analysis shows that the underlying rationale for this regulation fails to prove its efficiency — while the same goes for the soundness of the analogy to German deposit insurance structures. In contrast, the economic theory of regulation provides a profound explanation of legislative activity on the one hand, and emphasizes the danger of political misjudgement on the other. Considering the danger of political pretence of knowledge, a prioritization of market-driven solutions (self-regulation) is recommended, while keeping government regulation of insurance guarantee schemes to a minimum.     

失业保险与公司财务杠杆

我国劳动力市场化程度日益加深导致劳动者职业转换愈加频繁,失业保险的作用日益突出。本文探究了失业保险金水平对企业财务杠杆的影响。运用2009—2019年上市公司数据进行实证分析,结果发现失业保险金上升会导致公司财务杠杆下降。渠道检验显示,提高失业保险金可以降低员工失业风险溢酬,公司劳动力成本下降,公司有更多自由现金流和盈利进行内源融资和偿还债务,公司财务杠杆下降。进一步分析发现,失业保险金的作用在失业率高的地区更加显著。主要结果在分别运用《社会保险法》和《关于调整失业保险金标准的指导意见》构造双重差分模型和工具变量解决内生性问题、更改模型设置、排除投资水平影响、删除特殊省份、更换样本期间后,依然成立。本文结果说明加大失业保险保障力度有助于降低企业财务风险。     

Subsidization and Choice in the Group Health Insurance Market

This study investigates the effect of group health insurance plan choice on insurance unit price. The empirical findings suggest that the unit price of insurance, as measured by the ratio of the premium to expected indemnity benefits, is lower in group plans that offer employees a choice of different insurance options and require a premium contribution than it is in plans lacking at least one of these two features. The analyses suggest that lower unit prices are related to an increase in indemnity benefits and that the reduction in the unit price is greater for lower risks. The findings indicate that although subsidization of high risks by low risks occurs with group health insurance, the degree of subsidization is less when employees are offered a choice of health insurance plans.     

延迟退休、个人账户调整与城镇职工医疗保险基金可持续运行

文章通过构建精算模型,从城镇职工医疗保险基金可持续运行的角度对不同延迟退休和个人账户调整方案及组合进行模拟评估。研究发现:现行制度下城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金面临支付风险,延迟退休仅能够在短期内缓解城镇职工医疗保险基金的支付压力;仅依靠延迟退休难以在长期内缓解城镇职工医疗保险基金的支付压力,运用“延迟退休+个人账户调整”的模式,即在延迟退休的基础上对个人账户进行调整,更有利于基金的长期稳定运行。在现行退休制度下,建议取消个人账户,将单位缴费和个人缴纳的费用计入统筹账户,城镇职工医疗保险基金的单位缴费率可以下调1%;在延迟退休政策势在必行的情况下,建议在男性和女性不同岁退休的基础上,取消个人账户,实现城镇职工医疗保险单位缴费率降低2%。这样既有利于基金的可持续运行,也可以保证基金的运行效率,更能加强城镇职工医疗保险制度的互助共济性。     

国资划转对企业职工基本养老保险降费空间影响的研究

基于企业职工基本养老保险基金收支精算平衡原理,本文建立企业职工基本养老保险缴费率模型,探讨国资划转对企业职工基本养老保险降费空间的影响。研究发现,国资划转能为养老保险提供降费空间;但当前国资划转比例为养老保险提供的降费空间十分有限;若加大国资划转比例,养老保险降费空间可以提升。进一步研究改变缴费基数对国资划转为养老保险贡献的缴费空间的影响,发现缴费基数增加后,企业平衡缴费率降低,国资划转为养老保险降费率提供的空间减小。本文建议通过提高国有资产划转充实养老保险基金的比例、进行养老保险征管体制改革以做实缴费基数,从而改革和完善企业职工基本养老保险制度。     

The new society of organizations

Managers in every organization from the largest publicly owned company to the smallest not-for-profit face the same unsettling imperative: to build change into their organization's very structure. On the one hand, this means being prepared to abandon everything that the organization does. On the other, it means constantly creating the new. Unless this process of abandonment and creation goes on without ceasing, the organization will very soon find itself obsolescent--losing performance and with it the ability to attract and hold the people on whom its performance depends. What drives this imperative is the nature of the organization itself. Every organization exists to put knowledge to work, but knowledge changes fast, with today's certainties becoming tomorrow's absurdities. That is why any knowledgeable individual must likewise acquire new knowledge every several years or also become obsolete. Familiar as the term "organization" is, we have only begun to reckon with the implications of living in a world in which the fundamental unit of society is--and must be--destabilizing. That is why questions of social responsibility now arise so often and from so many quarters. We need new ways to understand the relationship between organizations and their employees, who may in fact be unpaid volunteers, independent professionals whose organization is a network, or knowledgeable specialists who can--and often do--move on at any moment. For more than 600 years, no society has had as many competing centers of power as the one in which we now live. Drucker explains why change is--and must be--the only constant in an organization's life and explores the consequences for managers, individuals, and society overall.