地方法人银行与小微企业的信贷博弈关系研究——基于演化博弈模型分析

本文基于演化博弈理论,研究地方法人银行与小微企业在动态博弈中的信贷策略选择问题,并分别从地方法人银行主动作为和小微企业积极合作两个方面推导出演化稳定策略。从研究结论可知：一是地方法人银行与小微企业之间呈现动态演化博弈关系,具有生成动态均衡下稳定策略的条件,进而在理论上支持信贷投放的政策资金激励机制的构建。二是从演化博弈分析来看,地方法人银行决策者主动作为所占比例趋于1和小微企业经营者积极合作所占比例趋于1,是二者博弈关系实现从非合作到合作的两个显著标识。三是合作博弈关系的实现具有现实可操作性,即通过加大地方法人银行决策者的绩效收入、政治激励、不作为免降职风险、减小不良风险减收,可以显著提高地方法人银行决策者实施主动作为策略的人数比例;同时,降低小微企业经营者的贷款利息、加大财政贴息、加大逃债惩罚,能够有效促进更多小微企业经营者采取积极合作策略。     

发展小企业贷款中银企双方还应努力的几个方面

近年来在国家发改委、财政部、工商局、人民银行、银监会和各级地方政府的共同努力下,我国的小企业融资环境正不断改善。小企业融资问题涉及面多,如风险投资、民间集资、银行贷款、信用环境、担保、税收、财政贴补等。虽然各项政策不断出台,但要使有关政策得到有效贯彻,各种服务创新能充分发挥作用,银企双方还要从以下几个方面共同努力。小企业要高度重视银企关系,与银行建立彼此信任、长期稳定、风雨同舟的发展关系小企业中,无论条件好坏,大都遇到过贷款难的问题。原因是多方面的。就企业自身看,如何获得银行的信任,调动起银行对企业长期支…     

小企业金融市场和客户特征分析

2008年底，李镇西牵头组织了一次对包商银行现有小企业客户的大规模调研。本次调研共获取全行两万个小企业客户的贷款金额分布数据，保证了抽样样本在总体中的代表性；同时，为确保企业经营情况和还贷记录的完备和详尽，抽样样本全部选自贷款已结清的客户；包商银行小企业客户的财务报表全部是由信贷员亲自编制，其真实性和可靠性相对较高。可以说，上述这些调研条件在小企业贷款业内是少有的。本刊编辑部特将包商银行的调研成果刊登，以飨读者。     

建设银行：从战略角度服务小企业

说到为小企业提供贷款服务，银行业曾经普遍有一种看法认为，小企业风险大，需要的拨备高。但在建行看来，小企业成长快，如今的支持，很可能无形中会为银行培养一大批客户。另外，相比于大企业，小企业业务综合回报高，数量多、行业分布广泛，可以有效降低集中性风险，其融资需求以短期为主，也可提高信贷资产的流动性。有鉴于此，小企业贷款业务在建行内部获得了前所未有的关注。     

中小银行、银团贷款与小企业贷款北大核心CSSCI

本文基于合作型博弈的视角,提出一种创新的小企业贷款难的理论解释与解决方案。研究发现,存在一个中小银行向小企业贷款的阈值条件,当中小银行的议价能力小于阈值条件时,由于向小企业贷款无利可图,中小银行将偏好组成银团向大企业提供贷款;只有当中小银行的议价能力大于阈值条件可以获得净收益时,中小银行才会向小企业提供贷款。通过修改模型中的某些参数变量并调整监管策略,可以适当地缓解小企业贷款难。     

小企业融资中的小银行角色

做小企业贷款,这是银行的普遍难题。如果以实力弱小的小银行来做小企业尤其是微小企业的贷款是不是难上加难呢?这样的难题正在被慢慢攻克。浙江泰隆商业银行、江苏江阴农村商业银行等一大批小银行已经或者说正在摸索一条以小银行特有的方式解决小企业尤其是微小企业融资难题的路子,实现了经济效益、社会效益的双赢。本期一线话题实地采访了中国银监会台州监管分局局长林奇、浙江泰隆商业银行行长王官明、江苏江阴农村商业银行董事长赵益及中国社科院中小银行研究基地副主任胡滨,共同探讨小企业融资中的小银行角色。     

实证与解释:小微信贷技术变迁与个人信用货币化微距观察——基于山东省Z市425份中小银行小微客户经验数据

本文首先系统梳理出我国小微信贷技术的发展路径:交易型贷款—关系型贷款(担保)—信用贷款,其次,借助Logistic模型探析银行开展个人信用货币化的影响因素,接着,建立借贷双方博弈行动分析框架,剖析不同情境下小微个体难以获得银行信任的原因.研究发现:借贷双方陷入"囚徒困境"是小微个体难以获得银行信任的根本原因;小微个体信用贷款①可得性与征信记录状况、邻里评价、拥有保险数量、文化程度正相关,与其他负债负相关;结合引入担保约束、信誉约束和司法约束,银行开展了三次小微技术创新,促成借贷双方基于重复博弈预期建立起长期信任关系,进而奠定了信用贷款的基础.最后,本文讨论了科技、央行政策等对小微技术发展的影响.     

“五个创新”应对小企业融资难问题

解决小企业融资难需要从以下五个方面进行创新：贷款技术创新,微小企业贷款是一项劳动密集型的业务,对信贷员的文化水平要求并不像高端金融那么高,但对入的爱心、责任心的要求却比较高;贷款业绩评价制度创新,对微型贷款企业的信贷员也应该有单独的考核办法,只要收益减掉风险之后的纯利润高于别人的,他就是一名好信贷员;贷款组织方式创新,小企业贷款可以由大银行专设部门办理,可以由社区型银行办理,也可以由专门的贷款公司办理;     

银行体系的制度建设与小企业融资

目前，中国的小企业贷款在银行贷款中的占比很低。小企业数量目前占全社会企业总数的90％以上，产值占GDP的比重已由过去不到1％提高到目前约占三分之一，但小企业贷款仅占主要金融机构各项贷款的16％，距离小企业贷款的实际需求还有很大的空间。对于小企业贷款占比过低这样的事实，人们并无多大分歧。但对形成这种现象的原因，以及如何解决这一问题，人们的观点并不一致。本拟从小企业的资本结构分析入手，从银行制度建设的角度探讨解决小企业融资难问题的途径。     

对小企业融资担保问题的探索——以天津鑫茂科技园区信用共同体实践为例

小企业融资难，一个长期以来的瓶颈问题是信息不对称，在信用问题上银企双方取得共识所需的沟通与磨合成本较大，而比较简单的一个方式是担保，但小企业因规模与实力所限又很难拿出银行放贷所需的抵（质）押物，由此形成了“银行不愿意放贷，企业不愿意申请”的尴尬局面。在此背景下，天津鑫茂科技投资集团2005年8月与天津农村合作银行、驻鑫茂科技园小企业共同发起了鑫茂科技园信用共同体，互相支持，共担风险，目的在于解决小企业发展的资金需求，为小企业发展搭建良好的融资平台。一年多来，信用共同体加盟企业中有181户拿到了信用证，127户取得银行授信，授信额度13200万元，其中已有48家取得贷款金额5450万元，已归还贷款1180万元。目前无一家违约，已初步形成了一个小范围的良好的商业诚信环境。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.