The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.     

我国商业银行利率风险管理实证分析

采用利率敏感性缺口模型中的利率敏感性缺口、缺口率、利率敏感性比率和利率敏感性比率偏离度四个指标,对我国14家上市银行2006年和2007年的利率风险管理情况进行分析。结果显示：近年来我国商业银行利用利率敏感性缺口模型对利率风险进行了较有效的管理,但1年以上资产、负债的匹配上失衡现象严重,利率敏感性缺口的调整滞后于利率变化趋势;我国传统国有大型商业银行的利率风险管理,落后于新兴的股份制商业银行。     

利率结构、利率变化和利率政策的有效性

长期以来,人们一直在致力于寻找一套能够完全解释利率结构和变化的理论,但至今仍未能统一人们对利率的认识。基于利率理论演变的简要回顾,重点对中西方利率政策有效性的研究现状进行系统梳理,以期对我国利率政策有效性的理论研究和实践工作提供一些借鉴。     

Bank cooperation and banking policy in a monetary union: A political-economy perspective on EMU

Why do large European banks lobby for monetary union? We show in a game-theoretic model that montary union can trigger a change in the structure of the market for international banking transactions with asymmetric effects on profits: large banks are induced to cooperate internationally and gain from European Monetary Union (EMU), while small banks are likely to lose. Monetary union can be interpreted as a device for large banks to push small banks out of the market for cross-border financial services.     

我国商业银行利率风险管理的实证研究

借助利率敏感性缺口模型,文章对我国14家上市银行在2007年至2010年期间的利率风险管理状况进行了实证研究。结果发现,近几年,我国商业银行整体上在应对利率变动风险方面取得一定成效,中小规模商业银行的利率风险管理能力总体上要优于大规模商业银行;但是,商业银行依然存在中长期利率敏感性资产和负债匹配严重失衡等问题。     

基于权益久期的商业银行利率风险度量技术研究

在我国的利率市场化进程中,商业银行将面临巨大的利率风险,商业银行的利率风险管理势在必行。文章全面分析了利率风险的形成和对商业银行的影响,指出久期是利率风险度量方法的必然趋势,在此基础上,引入权益久期的概念,全面衡量商业银行面临的利率风险,并对权益久期的应用环境     

The origin and diffusion of shocks to regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002

This paper is about the behavior of regional interest rates in the United States from 1880 to 2002. The main concern is with the shocks to regional rates. Where did they originate? How did they diffuse? How did the pattern change over time? We show that in the late nineteenth century the main source of shocks to rates on the periphery were shocks originating on the periphery itself. This pattern continued through World War I and the Great Depression. After World War II, however, the importance of disturbances on the periphery diminished and shocks to rates in the Eastern financial centers became the main source of fluctuations in all regions.     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

我国商业银行按揭贷款的久期测度研究

随着对用按揭贷款的方式购买房屋、车等大件商品的市场需求变失,我国商业银行推行越来越多的灵活的各种按揭贷款还款方式。针对商业银行目前主要推行的固定利率下的等额本息还款、等额本金还款、等额递增（递减）还款和“双周供”还款的现金流建模,并对这些模型进行久期和凸度测度,最后针对银行如何利用久期和凸度进行利率风险管理提出建议。     

China＇s Excessive Investment

China＇ s economy has witnessed serious excessive investment over the past 5 years, mainly in the infrastructure and real estate. Excessive investment has adverse impacts on both economic growth and macroeconomic stability. The main causes of this excessive investment are inappropriate growth strategies, low interest rates and weak constraints on government investment expenditure. To effectively control excessive investment, China needs to adjust its growth strategy, to speed up the process of interest rate marketization, and reform the existing public expenditure system.     

The RMB/US Dollar Exchange Rate——An International Political Economy Perspective

I. IntroductionOn July 21, 2005, China unexpectedly appreciated the RMB by 2 percent, and declared themoving of the RMB exchang rate regime into a managed floating regime, with reference toa basket of currencies. This brought respite to the long, ongoing debate over RMB’sappreciation. Due to the fact that the exchange rate is always considered a technical matter,best left to economists to handle, the mainstream approach of the RMB discussion is theeconomic approach. Although reviewing d…     

Micro-aspects of monetary policy: Lender of Last Resort and selection of banks in pre-war Japan

This paper explores how the Bank of Japan (BOJ) dealt with the trade-off between stability of the financial system and the moral hazard of banks in pre-war Japan. The BOJ concentrated Lender of Last Resort (LLR) loans with those banks that had an established transaction relationship with the BOJ. At the same time, the BOJ carefully selected its transaction counterparts, and did not hesitate to end the relationship if the performance of a counterpart declined. Further, the BOJ was selective in providing LLR loans. Through this policy, the BOJ could avoid the moral hazard that the LLR policy might otherwise have incurred.     

日本货币金融政策的演变

日本战后至70年代初主要的货币政策是配合道奇的“超平衡预算”而采取的金融缓和政策。70年代至90年代初日本政府主要采用的是扩张性货币政策。长时期地维持较低的官定利率政策是日本产生“泡沫经济”的重要政策原因。进入90年代后，日本政府由于急于解决“泡沫经济”问题，又错误地使用了过猛的紧缩性货币政策，再加上对严重的“不良债权”问题解决不力，导致在经济增长方面出现“停滞”局面，在货币政策方面出现极端的“零利率政策”，日本政府不可避免地陷入了在经济衰退中同时面对政府宏观调控政策全面重建的“世纪难题”之中。     

货币政策对房地产市场的调控：中、日比较

中国的房地产价格从2003年以来持续快速上涨,政府及中央银行虽然采取了一系列调控政策抑制房价,但房地产泡沫并未显著萎缩。本文通过比较中国与日本泡沫经济时期房地产泡沫的成因、货币政策调控目标、调控工具以及政策时滞的异同,分析了导致中国货币政策低效的主要原因,在汲取日本的教训和经验基础上,结合我国的具体情况,提出了增强货币政策对房地产市场调控效果的政策建议。     

美中应对金融危机的货币政策及其效果比较

2007年在美国爆发的次贷危机和金融危机对全球经济造成了巨大、强烈而深远的影响和冲击。中美两国各自根据国情及危机产生的根源的不同分别采取了及时积极的货币政策和财政政策,本文从两国货币政策实施的具体操作措施、实施的时间、目标、政策工具和力度、实施效果、经济恢复情况及目前仍存在的经济问题进行了详细的比较和分析。