NDC(名义账户制)模式——完善我国养老保险改革的一种新思路

我国从1991年实行养老保险改革开始到现在,基本上确定了从现收现付制向部分积累制转轨的方向。但是,时至今日仍然不能很好地解决为了做实个人账户而产生的养老金缺口问题。本文认为,现行养老保险制度中利用财政补贴弥补养老金不足、统一实行基金管理提高运营效率以及动用国有资产存量支付转轨成本三大措施均存在不合理因素。因此,借鉴NDC(名义账户制)模式不失为一种新的思路。     

Savings: the policy debate in Europe

Three issues dominate the public policy debate over savingsin Continental Europe. First, can private savings substitutefor public pensions in the provision of retirement income, giventhat the current generosity of pay-as-you-go financed pensionsis hardly sustainable in the light of population ageing? Andif so, which policy steps have to be taken to alleviate thistransition? Second, does the evolution of a 'new financial landscape'in Europe necessitate policy response in terms of taxation andregulation, specifically considering the increase in pensionfunds? And third, closely related to the other two issues, isthere too much or too little saving in an ageing Europe? Willpension reform and the new financial landscape increase or decreaseoverall saving? Do we need to subsidize saving more or lessthan we currently do? The paper reviews economic theory andempirical evidence on these intertwined issues. Most importantly,it identifies many gaps in our theoretical and empirical knowledgethat caution us against overly strong policy recommendations.     

After us,the deluge: German miners’ experience with pay‐as‐you‐go pensions and the intergenerational contract before the great inflation

Many public pension insurance schemes today use the pay‐as‐you‐go financing mechanism. This mechanism is vulnerable to an ageing population, which puts pressure on the intergenerational contract implicit in these schemes and raises the question as to how they might be eroded. This is not a new problem, and to put it into historical perspective, this article studies the intergenerational contract that formed the core of the Prussian miners’ invalidity insurance in the nineteenth and the early twentieth century (1861–1920). With the so‐called Knappschaften, miners relied on what was probably the most comprehensive and advanced occupational pension system existing in Germany around the time when Bismarckian social insurance was established. Financed via the pay‐as‐you‐go mechanism, the miners’ pension funds faced stress from their ageing memberships early on, and this potentially undermined their ability to maintain intergenerationally fair pensions. In order to examine whether or not the intergenerational contract among German miners showed signs of erosion, we look at the Knappschaftens’ profitability, as measured by actual and promised internal rates of return. This article shows that the intergenerational contract indeed weakened over time unless miners’ funds were large and continued to grow, and that a pension reform in 1906 served to stabilize generosity.     

不同的老龄化,不同的发展模式

从人口老龄化到社会老龄化美国用71年,中国仅用21年。美国养老基金2010年达到18.89万亿美元,占全球总量的63%,是其GDP的120%;中国养老基金加总额为1.5万亿元人民币,是美国养老基金的1.27%。美国的养老基金从中国经济增长中得到了实惠;而中国养老基金由于空账运行、缺乏市场运作,没有分享到经济发展的成果。中国亟待创造条件让更多国民拥有财产性收入,特别是养老基金;应提高公民的养老金教育和管理能力,政府治理养老金市场的能力。     

The Swedish Experience with Pension Reform

Sweden is one of few countries in Europe to have introduceda comprehensive pension reform. In 1998, Sweden passed legislationthat transformed its public pension system to a notional defined-contribution(NDC) plan— that is, a defined-contribution plan financedon a pay-as-you-go basis. In addition, a second tier of fundedindividual accounts was introduced. The reform had broad politicalsupport with more than 80 per cent of the votes in parliament.This paper discusses the trends in retirement in Sweden andassesses the experience with pension reform. The objective wasto design a fiscally sustainable system tied to economic growthwith a clear link between contributions and benefits. We discussthe challenges in meeting this goal, the extent to which theSwedish reform has succeeded, and how the system affects beneficiaries.The paper evaluates the experience of the individual fundedaccounts to date and concludes with an outlook for the future. Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: annika.sunden{at}sofi.su.se     

农村社会养老保险收入再分配模型及实证分析——基于新农保的实践

2009年,我国农村社会养老保险在老农保基础上进行了制度创新,在坚持个人账户的同时,引入财政直接补贴的基础养老金制度,形成新农保制度框架,经试点后于2014年2月推广为城乡统一的居民社会养老保险制度。发端于新农保的居民社会养老保险改革具有更强的收入再分配特点,促进了社会公平。文章基于新农保实践,构建净收益收入再分配模型,通过实证分析测算代际内部、代际之间和城乡之间养老金收入再分配效果。     

Differentiating Indexation in Dutch Pension Funds

Funded social security programs are particularly vulnerable to economic and financial market shocks. As a consequence of the recent crisis, a large fraction of the Dutch pension funds had to submit restoration plans for the recovery of their buffers. Such plans will have to rely primarily on a mix of reduced benefit indexation and increased pension contributions. Hence, a discussion has emerged whether indexation should be differentiated across the various groups of participants in a pension fund. We investigate this issue numerically, developing an applied many-generation small open-economy OLG model with heterogeneous agents. The pension system consists of a first-pillar PAYG component and a second pillar with a pension fund. In our stochastic simulations, we hit the economy with a variety of unexpected demographic, economic and financial shocks. We compare uniform indexation of pension rights across all fund participants with alternatives such as status-contingent indexation in which pensions are protected against price inflation. While the aggregate welfare consequences are small, group-specific consequences are more substantial with the workers and future born losing and retirees benefitting from a shift away from uniform indexation. The exception is a scheme which links indexation directly to the fund’s asset performance. Under this scheme the retired benefit without other groups losing. The welfare effects are primarily the result of systematic welfare redistributions rather than of shifts in the benefits of risk sharing. Contribution rates always have to rise substantially from their initial levels to maintain the system’s sustainability. An increase in the retirement age that leaves existing pension rights untouched does little to avoid this rise with its adverse labour market consequences.     

Impact of the National Pension Fund on the Suitability of Elderly Pensions in Thailand*

This study combines a traditional hypothetical worker approach with the techniques of stochastic forecasting to provide a better sense about the suitability of the pension system for formal sector private workers in Thailand. With regard to the proposed defined‐contribution pension, we find that workers with a 40‐year career can only expect a median replacement rate of approximately 13–14 percent of their final 5 years of income. Most of the pension benefits will still likely come from the unsustainable defined‐benefit pension system and further reforms will be needed to maintain suitable pensions.     

Pension fairness in China

The most populous country in the world, China faces immense socio-economic challenges providing adequate pensions to its growing elderly population. In that country, pensions available to older people vary considerably across the country's various pension schemes. This paper calculates the fairness coefficients of these pensions based on pension income, contributions, demand, and generational gap. The analysis shows that the pension fairness coefficients are 0.53, 0.38, 0.95, and 0.82, respectively. Synthesizing pension income, contributions, demand, and generational gap, the paper suggests that, in China, old-age pensions across different schemes are absolutely unfair. Finally, it analyzes the superficial and deeper factors behind pension unfairness in China before providing policy recommendations for improving the fairness of the country's pension system.     

城镇化中的社会保障制度建设：来自拉美国家的教训

拉美国家在历史上出现过经济高速增长和快速城市化的阶段,但是经济增长并没有解决贫困现象和缩小收入差距,出现了“增长性贫困”现象,而收入悬殊限制了经济的进一步增长。社保制度存在缺陷是导致拉美国家增长性贫困的主要原因之一：社保制度严重滞后于城市化进程,住房和就业困难,非正式就业较为普遍;养老保险计划的覆盖面较低,收入再分配难以进行;养老金管理成本居高不下,导致养老保险扩面难;社会保险与社会救助的比重失调,中产阶级成为社会保障制度的最大受益者;社保和教育机会的缺失,造成代际贫困的恶性循环。拉美国家这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics

We develop a demographic macroeconomic model that captures the salient life-cycle features at the individual level and, at the same time, allows us to pinpoint the main mechanisms at play at the aggregate level. At the individual level the model features both age-dependent mortality and productivity and allows for less-than-perfect annuity markets. At the aggregate level the model gives rise to single-sector endogenous growth and includes a Pay-As-You-Go pension system. We show that ageing generally promotes economic growth due to a strong savings response. Under a defined benefit system the growth effect is still positive but lower than under a defined contribution system. Surprisingly, we find that an increase in the retirement age dampens the economic growth expansion following a longevity shock.     

一事一议财政奖补制度对农村居民收入影响效应研究——基于中国县域面板数据的实证检验

一事一议财政奖补制度是中国农村税费改革后村级公共产品主要供给制度。该制度以其筹补结合的供给方式,弥补了由于税费减免导致的财政资金短缺加之村民筹资不足带来的村级公共产品供给缺失,有效促进了村级公共产品供给。理论上村级公共产品有效供给能够提高农村居民收入水平,但通过一事一议财政奖补制度提供的村级供给产品需要农民、村集体承担一部分建设费用,且后期管护工作在一定程度上增加了农民的经济负担。那么实施多年的一事一议财政奖补制度是否真正提高了农村居民收入水平?以及这种影响是短暂的还是持久的?其内在作用机制又是怎样的呢?文章首先从理论上分析一事一议财政奖补制度实施对农村居民收入的影响,并探讨"一事一议财政奖补→常住人口城镇化率→农村居民收入水平"的作用路径。然后运用中国县域面板数据对理论分析结论进行实证检验。文章在搜集2002年-2015年全国1869个县域经济数据基础上,从各省政府、省农委历年相关工作文件中查找1869个县开展一事一议财政奖补制度起始年份,最终形成26166组县域面板数据。研究发现,一事一议财政奖补制度实施能够对农村居民收入水平产生显著的正向影响,并且影响程度总体上呈现逐年递增趋势,...     

The role of public pensions in income inequality among elderly households in China 1988–2013

Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys for 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2013, we investigate the role of public pensions in income inequality among households with elderly members across two decades of pension policy reforms. We examine the distribution and role of public pensions at a national level and analyse the evolution of the contribution of public pensions to national income inequality across a much more extended time period than earlier studies, which have generally focused on regional changes over short periods. Our findings suggest that public pensions have become the most important source of income for households with elderly members on average in China, but the distribution of pension income is highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74 in 2013. Public pension income has been the largest source of income inequality for elderly households since 2002 and contributed to more than half of total income inequality in the most recent year of the survey. This finding is robust against variations in the income inequality measures used. Additionally, our analysis suggests unequal distribution of pension benefits is the primary driver of pensioners' income inequality. Among several hypothetical policy changes, ensuring a minimum pension benefit for all existing pensioners seems to be the most fiscally effective option in reducing income inequality, with a 0.8% reduction in the Gini coefficient for a 1% increase in public pension expenditure.     

日本公共养老保障体系的财政困境及对我国的启示

中国和日本同属人口老龄化速度最快的国家行列。1980年代中期以来,深度人口老龄化和经济低迷的双重压力使日本现收现付制的公共养老保障体系的财政状况迅速恶化,由之而来的对养老制度的不信任以及在解决问题过程中产生的代际负担和待遇的不公平使得越来越多的国民选择逃避养老金缴费责任,日本的公共养老保障体系面临日益严峻的挑战。考察日本养老保障体系面,临的困境及其产生原因,从中吸取经验和教训,对于我国正在进行的养老保障制度改革具有现实意义。     

城乡居民社会养老保险一体化模式研究——基于浙江、北京和重庆三模式的比较

浙江、北京和重庆城乡居民社会养老保险一体化都采取了统账结合模式,个人缴费、集体补贴和政府补助的资金筹集方式,及以市(区、县)级统筹试点的形式.但经济水平、收入水平及政策环境的差距,导致三地在养老金缴费标准、财政补贴及待遇方面存在不少差异.鉴于此,我国应分类推进城乡社会养老保险体系,构建养老金缴费与待遇的自动平衡机制,以及城乡统一的养老金管理模式.     

Measuring the redistributive impact of public pensions

Summary In this paper a formula is introduced for measuring the redistributive impact of public pensions over the life cycle of different income classes. This measure takes account of redistributions of lifetime incomes within a generation, but not of redistributions which are purely intertemporal for one individual and can be used for different pension systems. An empirical application is given with data on the Dutch income distribution. It appears that the redistributive impact of the public pension is determined by the form of the age-income profile, economic growth, the real rate of interest and the length of the working life for different income classes.     

Two Legs are Better than Three: New Zealand as a Model for Old Age Pensions

In contrast to conventional social insurance, the New Zealand retirement income system comprises a basic individual taxable flat-rate public pension supplemented by purely voluntary saving. The New Zealand system has proved remarkably durable, acceptable, and fiscally responsible. It does not conform to the World Bank's ideal of three pillars, but offers developing and mature countries a model that is worthy of careful examination. Its primary success lies in ensuring a stable and adequate retirement income for all citizens, moderating income inequality in retirement and protecting all older citizens from uncertainty in times of rapid economic and social change.     

我国事业单位养老保险改革现状及对策研究

养老保险是社会保障体系中最基本的组成部分,是构成社会主义市场经济体制基本框架的重要环节。目前,养老保险的热点和难点是事业单位养老保险制度改革的问题。事业单位养老保险改革的滞后,不仅影响了整个社会保障制度的发展与完善,制约统一的劳动力市场的形成,而且加重了国家财政负担,阻碍了社会主义和谐社会的建设。本文基于以上背景,首先介绍了我国事业单位养老保险的改革发展历程,回顾了建国以来我国的事业单位养老保险所经历的三个阶段;其次着重分析当前事业单位养老保险制度改革进程中所存在的主要问题,最终提出完善我国事业单位养老保险制度的对策。     

日本的国家公务员养老保险制度及其改革

日本的国家公务员养老保险制度包括了国民年金制度、公务员共济年金制度和公务员退休津贴制度.日本针对不同的职业群体建立了不同的年金制度,公务员的养老待遇要相对高于私人部门.二战以后,日本的国家公务员养老保险制度不断改革和完善,建立了基于国民年金基础上的国家公务员共济年金制度,并采取了诸多改革措施.影响日本国家公务员养老保险制度改革的因素主要包括:人口老龄化严重、经济的曲折发展、行政体制的改革.     

Japan's public pension system: What's wrong with it and how to fix it

In this paper, I briefly discuss the current structure of Japan's public pension system, the history of that system, and some of the problems with the current system and then make a number of recommendations for reforming the system. I argue that Japan's current public pension system has an adverse impact on the inter- and intragenerational allocation of resources and that it discourages private saving as well as the labor supply of the aged and of women but that these distortions can be corrected by reforming the system in appropriate ways. In particular, I recommend switching immediately to a system that is actuarially fair to all cohorts and to all groups within each cohort, that does not contain perverse incentives for labor supply and saving decisions, and that ensures retirees an uninterrupted flow of income.