Intranational Consumption Risk Sharing in South Korea: 2000–2016

This paper examines consumption risk sharing among 16 regions in South Korea over the 2000–2016 period. The empirical results show that 91.8 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product are smoothed in South Korea. Capital markets, the tax‐transfer system and credit markets absorb 29.9, 28.9 and 33.0 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product, respectively. Most notably, South Korea relies more on credit markets for risk sharing than capital markets, an opposite pattern to advanced countries like the USA, Canada and Australia. Furthermore, the patterns of consumption risk sharing are different before and after the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, and differences in regional industrial structure and local development can influence these patterns. This paper attempts to infer the connection between these findings and both the rapid economic growth of South Korea and the Asian and global financial crises.     

保险发展与经济增长——OECD与基础四国的对比分析

本文检验了OECD国家与基础四国保险业发展对经济增长的作用是否存在差异。实证结果表明,OECD国家保险业的发展显著地促进了经济增长,保险业与银行业之间形成了良好的互补关系;基础四国的非寿险业推动了经济增长,但是寿险业的经济增长效应显著为负,保险业与银行业和股票市场之间均呈现出显著的替代关系。     

内部控制、信任与商业信用融资

基于信任视角探析内部控制对商业信用融资的作用,以及该作用效果受信誉型信任、个性特征型信任以及制度型信任三种类型信任机制的影响,研究表明：在影响商业信用融资因素中, 内部控制质量的作用显著;三种信任维度与内部控制在商业信用融资中起到互补作用。补充检验发现：较之地方国企,中央国企在获取商业信用融资时处于有利地位,且其内部控制质量能起到更为显著的作用。本文丰富了中国情景下内部控制经济后果方面的文献,也为政策制定者进一步完善商业信用环境提供一定参考依据。     

The theory of bank redlining and discrimination: An exploration

This article addresses a gap in the economic literature on race and credit markets: the theoretical basis of lending discrimination and redlining. It provides a unified model for exploring why discrimination and redlining exist in credit markets. This model is first used to examine three explanations offered by other authors—bigotry, differential risk, and market segmentation. The article then suggests several new explanations of race effects. These emphasize the interlinkage between labor and credit markets; market spillovers due to housing liquidity, refurbishment, and branch location effects; and strategic interaction among lenders.     

论机动车交通事故责任强制保险实施对我国财产保险业的影响

交强险是我国第一个立法强制的保险险种,交强险的实施将为我国财产险业的发展营造更加良好的社会环境,这对加快我国财产险业的发展,提升财产险公司的核心竞争力将产生极其深远的意义。     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

中国保险业发展、城市化与经济增长

本文采用我国1985年-2011年时间序列数据。检验和估计了我国保险业发展、城市化水平与经济增长的关系。结果表明：城市化水平、非寿险业发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,而寿险业与经济增长之间因果关系不显著;城市化水平、非寿险业与经济增长存在正向关系,而寿险业对长期经济增长产生抑制效应;城市化水平对经济增长的贡献大于非寿险业对经济增长的贡献。为此,本文提出政府应加大对保险业发展的政策支持力度。均衡发展寿险业和非寿险业,重点支持县域和农村保险业的发展,拓宽保险业参与国民经济发展的途径;加快城市化建设的进程以促进保险业的发展;在城市化进程中重视非寿险业的发展。     

区域保险业促进新疆跨越式发展的实证研究

本文以新疆保费收入和地区GDP数据为研究依据,选取样本区间为1980年-2009年,利用统计分析工具进行实证研究。得出：（1）新疆保险业发展与经济增长高度正相关;（2）保险业发展与经济增长之间存在由经济增长到保险业发展的格兰杰因果关系,即国民经济的快速发展有利于促进保险业发展;（3）新疆财产保险发展、人寿保险发展与经济增长存在正相关;（4）短期内财产保险、人寿保险都不是经济增长的Granger原因,但经济增长却是财产保险和人寿保险发展的Granger原因;从长期来看,人寿保险的增长可以带动经济的增长。     

Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou,China

In 2020, governments worldwide enforced lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19, severely impeding aspects of daily life such as work, school, and tourism. Consequently, numerous economic activities were affected. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, city-center housing markets in areas surrounding popular tourist attractions performed better than did suburban housing markets because of the output of the tourism industry. This study examines the changes in the performance of city-center and suburban housing markets in regions with popular tourist attractions after the lockdown. Specifically, the dynamics of city-center and suburban housing markets in Hangzhou, where West Lake is located, and the changes in the information transfer between these housing markets after the lockdown are explored. Transaction data from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020 are used to perform analysis, in which adjusted housing prices and asking prices are employed to measure market performance and sellers’ pricing strategies, and transaction volume and time on the market are used to measure market liquidity and transaction frequency. The results reveal that the effects of lockdowns differ between city-center and suburban housing markets. After the lockdown, a substantial structural change is observed in the suburban housing market; the volatility risk of housing prices decreases substantially, causing an increase in transaction premiums. Housing prices and transaction volume increase in the city-center housing market after the lockdown; this is possibly because of the influence from the overall housing market booms. In addition, because sellers raise their asking prices and the transaction time is extended, the sellers in the city-center housing market are particularly influenced by the disposition effect. This leads to a reversal in the lead–lag relationship between the city center and suburban housing markets in terms of informativeness. Specifically, before the lockdown, the city-center market transfers information to the suburban market, but after the lockdown, the suburban market transfers information to the city-center market. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world in many aspects; this paper finds that it will also change the development pattern of the real estate market in different locations.     

The link between credit markets and self-employment choice among households in rural China

Our paper examines how credit markets operate through wealth to influence households’ entrepreneurial choices. Our results show that policy-led bank branch withdrawal in rural China has a significant negative impact on credit availability to rural households, though unexpectedly the effect is felt more strongly in informal than formal credit markets. Furthermore, we observe that self-employment is impeded by reductions in wealth associated with credit contraction. Policies which provide more and better formal financial services to rural households are predicted to increase the flow of credit, through both formal and informal channels, thereby supporting accumulation, diversification, and economic growth.     

The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan

Given the credit market imperfections in Taiwan, this paper examines the threshold effects in the adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium relationship between housing prices and household credit. The empirical findings verify the potential for regime shifts in the dynamically adjusted relationship between housing prices and household credit. Only when the benefits cover the cost of market imperfections, do housing and credit markets trigger convergence to their long‐run equilibrium. The hidden effect of the limitations on housing and credit markets is to raise the thresholds of the self‐adjustment mechanisms. As a result, economic boom‐bust cycles will be more severe and increase the fragility of financial sectors.     

Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe

A striking feature of international economic relations is the limited extent of intertemporal trade and risk-sharing among nations. This paper uses data on consumption, income, and production from regions of the United States to address the question of whether the limited participation of national economies in international capital markets is a fundamental aspect of economic relations among large geographic regions, or whether it is specifically an artifact of international economic relations. We conclude that capital flows among the regions of the United States are significantly larger than those across countries. However, such private markets still provide a relatively limited degree of insurance against regional fluctuations.     

金融市场准入与农信社信贷支农关联:苏北样本

基于信息比较优势理论建立的农村信用社贷款配置选择模型及对苏北23个县域经验数据的实证研究表明:降低农村金融市场准入限制以后,企业贷款市场和农户贷款市场形成了不同的竞争格局,由此改变了农村信用社在两个市场上的信贷资金配置策略,使其支农意愿增加,对农户的贷款强度和广度均显著提升;同时,竞争使得农村信用社信息成本降低,农户贷款价格下降。但是农村信用社在农户贷款市场的垄断地位使其仍然拥有较强的客户选择权和定价权。因此,构建竞争性、多层次的农村金融体系,不仅需要引入商业性金融机构,还需要着力培育和发展新型农村金融机构,并充分发挥政策性金融的作用。     

基于Copula-GARCH模型的原油市场和股票市场相关性研究

由于原油市场和股票市场之间的联动性日益增强,因此研究两个市场之间的关联特征,分析原油价格波动对股市的影响,有助于规避风险,保证经济持续平稳地增长.采用Copula-GARCH模型对WTI原油价格的收益率序列和NASDAQ股指的收益率序列进行实证分析.结果表明,GARCH(1,1)-t模型拟合两个序列的条件边缘分布效果最好,时变SJC Copula模型比常相关Copula模型能更好地刻画两个市场之间的相关关系.两个收益率序列之间存在正的相关关系,且相关关系具有时变性,相关结构具有一定的不对称性,上尾相关系数小于下尾相关系数,即两个市场同时出现价格极端下跌的可能性更大.这为中国金融市场风险管理,规避油价波动对股市的冲击提供一定的参考依据.     

Bank credit and seasonal anomalies in China's stock markets

In this paper, we uncover seasonal anomalies in the Chinese A-share stock markets and examine to what extent they can be explained by bank credit. For the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets over the 1993–2003 period with both monthly and quarterly data, we reject three series of priors: (i) Changes in regulation and investor behavior lead us to expect substantial alterations in the pattern of stock prices, especially in the late 1990s. However, the use of unobserved-components models enables us to uncover no evidence for changes in seasonal patterns over time, once outliers and structural breaks have been properly accounted for. An unchanging positive June effect and a negative December effect have been at work since 1993. (ii) We expect differences between the behavior of prices in Shenzhen and Shanghai, both at the level of the index and in their attractiveness for investors. We find evidence of very similar movements in seasonality between the two markets whatever the frequency. (iii) Seasonality in returns is often considered to be generated by the unofficial channeling of bank credit to the stock market. We find that seasonal effects in returns are robust to the inclusion of bank credit.     

贸易开放度与中国经济增长关系的地区差异研究

为了探求中国的开放政策是否促进了经济增长，以及开放政策对不同区域的作用是否存在差异，本文在相关文献回顾的基础上，运用中国大陆地区28个省、自治区和直辖市（海南、重庆、西藏除外）1984-2004年的相关数据，采用Panel Data模型对贸易开放度与中国经济增长的关系问题进行了实证研究。研究的结论认为开放的对外经济贸易政策促进了中国的经济增长；井且通过研究发现这一促进作用存在着地区差异，对于中西部地区来说，促进作用更大。     

福建省房地产价格、银行信贷与经济增长动态关系研究——基于VCE模型的实证分析

基于VEC模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲函数响应函数以及方差分解等方法,对1993-2014年福建省房地产价格、银行信贷与经济增长之间的动态关系进行研究分析。结果表明：①房价、银行信贷和经济增长之间存在着动态协整关系,银行信贷与房价、经济增长之间都存在单向因果关系,房价与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。②经济增长往往需要一段较长的时间才能推动房价的上涨,房价对银行信贷存在长期的抑制作用,房价对经济增长的影响小于银行信贷对经济增长的影响。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNCHRONISATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WITH THE WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE

Globalisation brought about worldwide changes, including economic and financial integration between countries. The objective of this paper is to establish if there is synchronisation between developed and developing countries with the world cycle. Research results show that business cycles have become less volatile after globalisation, but there is not much consensus on whether business cycles have become less or more synchronised since globalisation. Little research has been done on co‐movement between emerging markets, such as South Africa, and the world business cycle. This paper derives common factors for developed and developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to output, consumption and investment data, which represents the countries' business cycles. The empirical analysis shows co‐movement between some countries and the world business cycle (G7 countries as proxy). The results suggest that there are idiosyncratic and globally common shocks, which play different roles over time in different countries. The paper goes on to suggest that there are clear differences in how developed and emerging markets co‐move with the world business cycle. A key finding is that the co‐movement between developing economies and the world business cycle has increased since globalisation. This research also confirms previous research that most economies follow the world business cycle when large shocks – such as the recent economic downturn – occur. This has implications for forecasting the business cycle, especially in times of economic turmoil.     

中国保险与经济高质量发展耦合协调关系研究

保险强国建设与经济高质量发展有赖于保险与经济高质量发展之间存在良性耦合协调关系。基于保险-经济二元评价指标体系引入系统耦合模型,研判保险经济耦合关联度和协调度,可以发现2011-2020年无论全国还是省域保险和经济高质量发展耦合关联度和协调度都逐步增强;就全国层面而言保险和经济高质量发展基本实现良性互动和耦合协调,从省域层面来看保险和经济高质量发展耦合关联度和协调度空间分异性较大。因此亟需推动同一区域保险与经济同步发展,不同区域保险与经济协调发展,从而缓减不同省域保险与经济高质量发展不平衡状况,实现省域层面保险与经济高质量发展耦合协调发展。研究基于高质量发展理念进行保险与经济之间关系的理论推导和实证研判,明确促进保险和经济良性互动发展对策,助力保险强国建设和经济高质量发展。     

The Spatial Impact of Cultural Distances on Home Bias across Asian Emerging Markets

Using a set of individual country-pair data on cross-border equity transactions between seven Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia) in the years 2002–2012, we document that investors are more likely to show similar extent of home bias across Asian emerging markets than the developed markets. The spatial panel regression analysis indicates that the spillover effects of cultural and economic distances are more significant than the effect of geometric distance. Investors’ familiarity about Asian countries seems to influence the similar extent of home bias across Asian financial markets, while not so in the developed countries. In particular, the spatial spillover influences of risk associated with cultural and economic distances are more prominent among the Asian financial markets than the developed countries. Our home bias model can be spatially applied to not only different regions but also to different types of investors in international portfolio flows.