Uncertain Climate Change in an Intergenerational Planning Model

A three-generation planning model incorporating uncertain climate change is developed. Each generation features a production activity based on capital and an exhaustible resource. An irreversible climate change may occur in period two or three, reducing the productivity for this and the remaining generation. The model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. If the climate impact and climate change probability is constant, the optimal period one (and two) resource extraction is larger than for the reference case of climate stability. If, however, climate impact and climate change probability increases with increased aggregate resource use, this result is reversed.     

Uncertainty and Climate Change

Uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climatechange. How should economists allow for this? And how have they allowed for it? This paperreviews both of these questions.     

Climate Change and the Representative Agent

The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.     

气候变化伦理研究评述

气候变化日益成为国际社会的一个热门话题。关于对气候变化问题的国际辩论经历了一个从科学、经济学和政治学争论到伦理争论的历程。气候变化是一个典型的＂全球伦理问题＂,气候变化伦理问题的关键是利益冲突。要解决＂缓解＂和＂适应＂气候变化、碳排量分配的合理性、发展中国家的发展空间及其补偿等一系列问题,必须要对气候公正原则、共同而有区别的责任等问题获得共识。     

欧盟关于气候变化政策的新进展

本文分析了欧盟理事会2008年3月批准了欧盟气候与能源的一揽子行动计划的背景,提出：欧盟高度重视气候变化,除了因为气候变化已经日益影响人类的生活外,主要是基于自身能源、经济增长和就业的考虑。分析了欧盟实现减排的方式,更新的排放交易机制将是主要手段,还有发展可再生能源、提高能效、利用清洁发展机制,以及应用碳捕捉与储存技术等,指出：欧盟气候变化关键目标是“两个20％”,即：到2020年,温室气体排放至少减少20％,能源消费中可再生能源的份额占20％。     

气候变化全球治理的处境、困境与路径

应对气候变化的全球治理无疑是当今世界最受关注的治理实践。与人们的期望相背,气候治理的实践一直都是并将在可见的将来都会是举步维艰的。之所以如此,是由气候治理的内在困境所决定的;因此,有效的治理路径只能是立足于现实困境之上的谨慎探索。     

Double Dividend with Involuntary Unemployment: Efficiency and Intergenerational Equity

This paper analyzes the double dividend and distributional issues within an overlapping generations model framework with involuntary unemployment. We characterize the necessary conditions needed to obtain a double dividend, when the revenue of the environmental tax is recycled by a variation of the labor tax rate. We show that an employment dividend may occur without any efficiency dividend and that the young generation is not always harmed by the fiscal reform, even without any intergenerational transfers. Therefore, three dividends (environmental, efficiency and intergenerational equity) can occur simultaneously.     

Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates

Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts areexpressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerabilityis measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, populationabove 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine worldregions, for the period 2000–2200, for agriculture, forestry, waterresources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term,the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be thecrucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of thesector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negativeor positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at.Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorerregions.     

加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略

随着气候变化的加剧,极端天气越来越多,越来越激烈,与气象相关的灾难越来越多。不少国家已经或开始制定应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略。有专家认为,加拿大的应急反应和灾后恢复是世界上做得最好的。本文试图从立法、防灾减灾国家战略、应急准备计划、政府职能、应急管理、国家灾害管理系统、气候变化及防灾减灾研究、基础设施应对气候变化下的标准与规范、灾害风险与薄弱环节评估、突发事件应急反应的气象预警、应急管理教育与培训、全国性防灾减灾网络等多个方面,深入研究分析加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略,供大家参考。     

Heterogeneity of First-order Risk Aversion and the Equity Premium

I show that stockholders and non-stockholders can coexist in equilibrium even if securities markets are perfect and complete. This is due to a heterogeneous safety inclination, which is defined as heterogeneity in first-order risk aversion (Segal and Spivak, 1990). A static two-security market model is analysed by the mean–standard deviation approach, where safety inclination is described by the degree of the marginal rate of substitution between the mean and the standard deviation at a certain point. In equilibrium, aggregate shocks may be concentrated on stockholders, which may lead to a high equity premium.
JEL Classification Numbers: D81, E44.     

Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan

In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO₂ emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan’s recent historical experience. Similar demand-management programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading. We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets.     

城市居民气候变化风险认知对出行方式选择的影响—基于620位城市居民的调查分析

城市是温室气体的主要来源,发展"低碳城市"是应对气候变化的必然要求,需要居民广泛参与和行动。气候变化风险的认知是有效应对气候变化的前提,城市居民气候变化风险认知是否会影响其出行方式,促进其低碳出行呢?基于620位城市居民的调查数据,利用Binary Logistic模型,探讨了城市居民气候变化风险认知对其出行方式的影响。研究表明:(1)城市居民气候变化风险认知对出行方式没有积极影响;(2)城市居民出行方式选择主要受性别(X1)、年龄(X3)、家庭平均月收入(X5)、居住地距最近公共交通设施的距离(X9)、居住地与目的地的距离(X10)因素影响,其中居住地距最近公共交通设施的距离(X9)影响最大。此研究对政府应对气候变化、发展低碳城市、做好节能减排工作有一定参考价值。     

浅析印度气候变化国家行动计划

2008年6月30日,印度政府颁布了“气候变化国家行动计划”。这立即引起国际社会的关注。本文分析了该计划出台的背景,对计划的主要内容进行了提炼和解读。     

Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.     

APEC气候变化合作与中国的策略选择

文章对APEC气候变化合作的背景、发展、意义和前景进行了政治经济分析,并着重阐释了美国和日本的气候政策及其对APEC气候变化合作的影响。在此基础上,文章指出了中国参与APEC气候变化合作的必要性,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

The Determinants of Risk Aversion: The Role of Intergenerational Transmission

This article studies the relationship between risk attitudes and individual characteristics focusing on the intergenerational transmission of risk preferences. We use a dataset of a sample of Italian students which allows us to build different measures of risk aversion based, respectively, on a survey asking students about their willingness to invest in a risky asset and about their preferences for job security and on the results of an entry test using explicit penalty points in the case of incorrect answers. In line with the findings highlighted by the existing literature, we find that women are more risk averse than men, more patient subjects are more risk averse, while high‐ability students are less risk averse. As far as intergenerational transmission of preferences is concerned, it emerges that students whose fathers are entrepreneurs have a higher propensity to take risks, while students whose fathers are employed in the public sector are more risk averse. Only fathers matter with regards to their children's risk attitudes. These results are robust to different measures of risk aversion and to different specifications of our model.     

美国应对全球气候变化的科技计划

2002年2月，美国总统布什改组了美国应对全球气候变化的领导机构，以协调和指导美国应对全球气候变化的科技活动。在新的领导体制下，美国气候变化科学研究和与气候相关的技术开发项目集成到了一个前所未有的程度，形成了相互关联的两大科技计划，即气候变化科学计划（CCSP）和气候变化技术计划（CCTP），并设立了相应的气候变化科技计划管理机构。 本文对上述两大计划，以及美国未来应对全球气候变化、减少温室气体排放的近期和中长期技术选择进行了调研，供参考。     

系统论视野下我国应对气候变化立法研究

气候变化是人类面临的一个空前复杂的综合性问题.我国易受气候变化影响,面临着国际应对气候变化的减排压力,而我国应对气候变化立法供给严重不足,无法系统应对气候变化.我国有必要借鉴国际和域外国家应对气候变化立法经验,以生态中心主义理念为指导,运用系统论的理论和方法修订《环境保护法》,实现对各环境介质的系统保护,制定应对气候变化专门法及配套法规、规章,完善相关法律法规,实现对气候变化的系统性立法防治,保持气候系统结构和功能总体平衡稳定.     

基于国际经验的中国国家公园气候 变化应对路径

国家公园等自然保护地既是气候变化影响的敏感 区,也是减缓气候变化的重要载体。纵观世界上多个国家气候 变化应对历程发现,国家公园等自然保护地是应对气候变化的 先行者与探索者。而面对气候变化的重要议题,中国国家公园 尚处于初步研究阶段,缺乏系统的应对战略。选取国家公园 气候变化应对开展较早、体系完善及具有特色的6个国家和地 区,梳理其战略、政策与实践经验,从科研、减缓、适应和 教育4个方面总结其应对途径,并提出中国国家公园气候变化 应对的4条路径：充分凝结共识,鼓励多方参与;夯实科研基 础,形成前沿基地;战略规划指导,分级分区落实;适应减缓 并重,提升气候能力。     

气候变化视野中的自愿环境协议

气候变化问题的综合性和广泛性决定整个社会每一分子都直接或间接地对气候变化有不可分割的作用。传统环境治理思想过多地将环境管理和提高义务置于诸如政府、环保团体等公共利益卫道士之手,单纯依靠公共利益团体的力量在气候变化背景下已不足以形成有效的社会约束机制,许多高瞻远瞩的企业已意识到自身环境责任与社会形象的重要性,通过自我约束行为为缓解气候变化添砖加瓦,自愿环境协议为此提供了制度平台。国际上早已有将自愿环境协议作为气候变化应对战略的一项重要措施的实践,我国的相关试点工作也已悄然铺开。因此,如何正视自愿环境协议的柔性治理功能,以及如何促进其在我国气候变化应对机制中发挥正面作用,成为我国环境治理面临的新问题。