苏泊尔的抉择

从父亲苏增幅手中接过苏泊尔的权杖之后,一路走来,苏显泽先后顶住了“特富龙事件”、新股跌破发行价、以及原材料价格大幅增长所带来的各种压力。但是这一次,在关乎苏泊尔长远发展的难题面前,卖掉这家父亲和自己一手创办的国内知名企业,苏显泽做出了艰难的抉择     

Types of organizational decision processes

Seventy-eight case studies of decision making were profiled to identify the nature of the process. Analysis revealed evaluative, historical model, off-the-shelf, search, and nova process types. These processes differ in their approach to idea generation, the guarantors applied, and process-management rationale. Variations in each type are described to lay out the distinctions between the processes. The study found that managers do not use the normative methods prescribed by scholars for good decision making. Most decision processes were found to be solution centered, which seemed to restrict innovation, limit the number of alternatives considered, and perpetuate the use of questionable tactics.     

Strengthening executive decision making

Although decisions determine corporate fates, executives don't always know how to make the best choices. The author examines today's dissatisfaction with corporate decision making, reviews how it can deteriorate as the pace of change increases, and offers five comprehensive strategies for improving the decision making process. © 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A representation of decision by analogy

We give a representation of analogical reasoning in choice under uncertainty. A decision maker is faced with two decision problems, a familiar and a novel one. It is shown that, under assumptions that capture the salience of alignable differences in choice, the decision maker can be construed as choosing between acts in the novel decision problem as if drawing all likelihood information from a multi-valued correspondence between states of the world in the familiar domain and states of the world in the novel domain. The latter is interpreted as an analogy between the two decision problems, and the fuzziness of the analogy is related to revealed ambiguity in the novel decision problem.     

The homeownership decision of female-headed households

The homeownership rate of female heads of household is substantially lower than the rate for married women. A number of factors could account for this observation including differences in income and its sources, wealth, demographic characteristics, and the relative price of homeownership. We identify the impact of these factors and find income and the cost of owning relative to renting to be most important. Analysis of changes in female ownership rates over a 10-year period reveals the impact of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act which eased access to the mortgage market. We find evidence that ECOA raised the probability of homeownership for all women. However, much of the difference in ownership rates between married and unmarried women remains unexplained, especially for high income households.     

Collective decision making by committee

Implicitly or explicitly, economic decisions always contain elements of compromise. However, the bargaining models of economic theory treat only the two decision maker case with linearly aggregated priorities; i.e. compromise decisions under Pareto optimality and no side payments. Even then the relative importance of the decision makers remains indeterminate. This paper proposes a simplified bargaining model with three new features: (a) it allows multiple participants; (b) it uses optimal voting patterns to combine the policy proposals, rather than the policy priorities, to form those compromise decisions; and (c) it determines the relative power of each participant endogenously. Perhaps more important, the method does not depend on each decision maker knowing the preferences of his colleagues exactly.     

Modelplasticity and abductive decision making

Decisions in Economics and Finance - ‘All models are wrong but some are useful’ Box (Robustness in statistics, Elsevier, pp 201–236, 1979). But, how to find those useful ones...     

Allocation of decision rights in joint ventures

Previous studies in organizational economics and international business research have not tested a property rights view on the allocation of decision rights (DR) in joint ventures (JVs). The paper offers a test of the property rights explanation by using data from Hungarian JVs. Our analysis derives the following hypothesis: The more important the JV partner's intangible knowledge assets for the generation of residual surplus, the more residual DR are assigned to him. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of the drug testing decision

Two separate investigations were undertaken to better understand the factors that should be considered in the drug testing decision. In the first study, organizations were surveyed by telephone and were asked to identify the factors considered when making their decision. Safety seemed to be the most important reason for favoring a drug testing program, while employee rights was one of many reasons for not implementing a testing program. In the second study, the interest was in determining the impact of drug testing on the applicants' willingness to join the organization. It was found that salary was the most important factor, but that the drug testing policy did affect the job choice of about 20% of the students.     

A decision problem of long-term economic planning

The model described in the present paper has been worked out to approximate a concrete problem of national economic planning. The problem presented itself in the daily practice of the National Planning Board of the Hungarian People's Republic in the course of a planning project carried out with the aim of laying the foundation of the national economy's long-term development.     

Social decision for a measure society

Preference aggregation is here investigated for a society defined as a measure space of individuals and called a measure society. Individual preferences are represented through continuous vnm utilities. It is shown that aggregating preferences in an utilitarian way for any kind of measure society is possible under adapted Pareto conditions.     

Knightian uncertainty and insurance regulation decision

In contrast to insurance companies, regulatory authorities or regulators can obtain only limited information about the companies’ value. It hence leads to some effects on the regulation design, which is however often overlooked in the literature. This article characterizes the limited/imperfect information as Knightian (Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, 1921) uncertainty (ambiguity). In order to stress the analytical effects of ambiguity on the regulation decisions, we firstly carry out an analysis in a standard immediate bankruptcy regulation where default and liquidation are considered as indistinguishable events. It is noticed that ambiguity-averse regulators require more “ambiguity equity”. We show then that under ambiguity an immediate liquidation policy delivers wrong liquidation with a positive probability. As an illustrative example to fix the wrong liquidation problem under ambiguity, a new regulation rule is developed with a regulatory auditing process. Based on this new model setup, we focus on examining how the riskiness of the firm’s value and the debt ratio affect liquidation probability.      

Discursive methods in environmental decision making

Sustainable practices can be initiated or encouraged by governmental regulation and economic incentives. A major element to promote sustainability will be, however, the exploration and organization of discursive processes between and among different actors. Many analysts agree that sustainability will remain a highly desirable, but unrealistic option for development, if people do not feel a degree of ownership and identity with the goal of sustainability for their own life and a preference for its policy implications. Inviting the public to be part of the decision-making process from the beginning improves the likelihood that the resulting decision will be accepted. Participatory processes are needed that combine technical expertise, rational decision making, and public values and preferences. To accomplish such an integration, negotiation, mediation, and arbitration are potential solutions. Many different procedures and forms of mediation have been proposed and some tested. One major attempt of the authors has been the organization of round-table discourses among a wide variety of stakeholders to develop environmental policy goals or to design local and regional waste management plans. These discourses are based on the assumption that each participant can contribute to the common good if the setting of the discourse encourages the generation of shared values and discourages strategic reasoning. The emphasis of the paper will be on the model of cooperative discourse and first applications in Germany, Switzerland and the United States. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

A nonparametric decision approach for entrepreneurship

Credit identification is one of core issues of financing process. Enterprise credit involves a lot of financial and non-financial measures, among which entrepreneurship is an important but rarely mentioned variable. Good entrepreneur credit often leads to good enterprise credit. A comprehensive analysis of enterprise credit identification is important to avoid losses, foster excellent enterprise and make the optimal allocation of resources. The existing literature mainly studied the impact of entrepreneurship on enterprise credit from the perspective of historical information, which is about average and tendency. Hence, those models were unable to explain the function of complex human nature and, consequently, linear models are unable to well describe the relationship between enterprise credit and entrepreneur credit. Given the deficiency of parametric models when discussing the impact of entrepreneur credit, a non parametric approach are proposed to individually describe the impact path of different individuals. This paper established a decision tree based on nonparametric approach to verify the practicability of the model in the evaluation of enterprise credit recognition. In the end of this paper, we demonstrate the validity of the non parametric model and the validation method of it.     

On a simple sequential decision problem

We consider a simple sequential problem that generalizes the gamble with a fair coin. A sequence [ X _n] ot {0,1} r.v.'s is observed, and at each step the gambler can bet on either 0 or 1. The sequence ( X _n) is assumed exchangeable. Except for the case of i.i.d. r.v.'s with even probability (the fair coin), there exists a strategy such that the cumulated expected gain diverges to +∞.     

Problems in cross-functional sourcing decision processes

We identify problems encountered in a cross-functional sourcing decision process, founded on a longitudinal case study at a large manufacturing company. Ten problems are identified which affect the process negatively and which derive from three underlying factors: functional interdependency, strategy complications and misaligned functional goals. These factors are long-observed in literature on organizations but not specifically in the cross-functional sourcing decision process and we add an investigation into the effects these factors have on attempts to make better-founded sourcing decisions. Our findings indicate that the reality of making sourcing decisions is often more complex than is portrayed in previous research on sourcing decisions.