Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options

We design a compound real options model, which determines the timing of takeovers and characterizes the distribution of the associated surplus. We delineate a relation between the bargaining power of the acquiring firm and the takeover incentives. The takeover threshold is decreasing as a function of the expected primary takeover gain and the embedded divestment gain. Decreased implementation uncertainty stimulates takeover activity. This uncertainty concerns the delay until either primary takeover synergies or subsequent divestment gains are realized. We demonstrate how the relation between volatility and takeover timing depends on the functional form of the profit flow with implementation uncertainty.Financial support from the Foundation for the Promotion of the Actuarial Profession and the Finnish Insurance Society to Luis H. R. Alvarez is gratefully acknowledged. Both authors acknowledge the financial support from the Yrj? Jahnsson Foundation and the Research Unit of Economic Structures and Growth (RUESG) at the University of Helsinki. The authors are grateful to Josef Zechner and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and suggested improvements on an earlier version of this study.     

Irreversibility,Uncertainty and Housing Investment

Housing represents a form of “irreversible” investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts.     

The Impact of the Secondary Market on Life Insurers' Surrender Profits

Life insurers often claim that the life settlement industry reduces their surrender profits and leads to an adverse shift in their portfolio of insured risks; that is, high risks remain in the portfolio instead of surrendering. In this article, we aim to quantify the effect of altered surrender behavior––subject to the health status of an insured––in a portfolio of life insurance contracts on the surrender profits of primary insurers. Our model includes mortality heterogeneity by applying a stochastic frailty factor to a mortality table. We additionally analyze the impact of the premium payment method by comparing results for annual and single premium payments.     

The Impact of Accounting Principles on Profits: The US versus Japan

Weetman and Gray (1991) sought to add quantitative information to the extant qualitative literature on differences in profits reported under US GAAP with those in the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. This paper introduces Japanese companies to such analysis and seeks to add to both the qualitative and quantitative literature on profit comparisons. In attempting to undertake such work, the paper serves to highlight the difficulties of trying to compare financial statements in Japan with those published in the US and as a consequence the problem of undertaking quantitative analysis. On the basis of a case study approach, there is some evidence that the profits of companies prepared in accordance with Japanese GAAP are considerably more prudent than if prepared in accordance with US GAAP for companies operating in the financial sector. Such differences may not be so pronounced in the non-financial sector.     

公允价值计量改革对公司利润分配的影响

新会计准则引入了公允价值计量属性,改变了营业利润的构成,也改变了净利润的计量方法。未实现的公允价值变动损益和资产减值损失不具备可分配利润的特点,但因为改革后所得税会计采用的是资产负债表债务法,不能直接以净利润减公允价值变动收益作为利润分配基数,必须考虑递延所得税的影响。本文提出应尽快修改《公司法》中利润分配条款。这对规范公司利润分配行为,抑制公司利润分配中机会主义倾向、保持公司持续发展是很有必要的。     

Tax Timing Options on Futures Contracts and the 1981 Economic Recovery Act

This study utilizes foreign currency futures contracts to evaluate the tax timing options created by the 1981 Economic Recovery Act. Our findings suggest that the act had an impact on contracts with less than six months to maturity and that the marginal trader in those contracts is a long-position holder. Similarly, the results suggest that the option of tax year selection for foreign currency futures in valuable.     

非经常性损失与监管利润关系及对审计的启示

非经常性损益是我国证监会提出的监管概念,其中,非经常性损失能够调高监管利润,客观上粉饰公司市场形象与融资能力。本文将非经常性损失的确定性程度分为三个等级,作为分类变量;将非经常性损失与利润总额绝对值比率作为考察变量,分析不确定性对监管利润的影响。我们得出的结果是非经常性损失的不确定性越高,监管利润被粉饰的可能性越大。建议在审计实践中关注具有不确定性的非经常性损失,防止企业将正常损失混入非经常性损失。     

A Comparative International Analysis of the Impact of Accounting Principles on Profits: The USA versus the UK,Sweden and The Netherlands

This paper explores the extent to which there are material quantitative differences in profits reported under US GAAP compared to profits reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands. From an analysis of Form 20-F reports filed with the SEC in the USA, there is support for the hypothesis that UK GAAP are significantly less conservative than US GAAP. On the basis of a case study approach, it seems that Swedish GAAP tend to be more conservative than US GAAP, particularly when the transfers to reserves are analysed, but there is insufficient evidence to establish a systematic pattern. In the Netherlands, on the other hand, there is evidence to suggest that Dutch GAAP are at the less conservative end of the spectrum of financial reporting measurement practices, in a position relatively similar to that of UK GAAP, although again the evidence is insufficient to establish a systematic pattern.     

定向增发市场时机选择对资本结构的影响

文章以A股市场上2006年至2016年6月间非公开发行的企业为样本,运用分位数回归方法,研究定向增发市场择时对资本结构的影响.研究发现,在再融资政策的管制下,中国定向增发市场时机包含企业自主选择的时机和政府发行管制的时机.定向增发市场时机对资本结构水平高的企业具有显著影响,这种影响主要来自企业自主择时.虽然监管机构对非公开发行制定了一系列政策制度,但因为其监管力度较低,因此企业对市场时机的选择自由度较高.企业择时对资本结构具有长期显著的负向效应,政府择时对于资本结构水平越高的企业影响越大,对资本结构水平低的企业其影响仅存在于定增当年.政府可适当对定向增发加强管制,以遏制市场上投机者的炒作行为.     

Uncertainty, Real Options, and Cost Behavior: Evidence from Washington State Hospitals

This study tests an implication of the real‐options theory of investment, that uncertainty leads firms to prefer technologies with low fixed and high variable costs. In 1983, a change in Medicare reimbursement increased the uncertainty of revenues for hospitals. Using a sample of 831 departments in 59 Washington State hospitals over the 1977–1994 period, we find that the ratio of variable to total costs increased after 1983. This increase is not attributable to a gradual increase in the ratio over time: We estimate a significant increase after 1983 even after controlling for a time trend. Further, we find a greater increase in the variable‐to‐total cost ratio for hospitals that had higher percentages of Medicare patients, increasing our confidence in the conclusion that the change in cost behavior is attributable to Medicare's change in reimbursement.     

金融危机冲击、企业风险缓冲与政府政策选择

为什么金融危机冲击会给不同企业带来不同的经济后果,甚至是不同的命运?本文基于"外部冲击→企业缓冲能力→经济后果"的视角构建了企业风险缓冲机制的一般分析框架。在此基础上,我们认为,金融危机给企业带来的冲击可以概括为业绩下降(对应于产品市场恶化)和现金流短缺(对应于融资市场恶化)两个方面;微观层面上,金融危机下,影响企业风险缓冲能力的因素包括企业资本结构、资产结构、成本结构、高管背景与政治关联、政府干预程度等因素,企业应通过调整和优化上述因素应对外部冲击;宏观层面上,我们认为,可以考虑通过合理选择政府投资领域、企业打包贷款、设立中小企业基金、改变税收减免方式、促进企业资金周转等方式缓解企业的外部冲击。     

应计利润和现金流量对股利决策影响的实证研究

本文首先从理论上分析了应计利润、现金流量对上市公司股利政策的影响作用，并提出了有关这种影响作用的假设；其次利用2003年上市公司的相关数据，验证了现金流量越好的公司越倾向于发放现金股利，应计利润越多的公司越倾向于发放股票股利。研究表明，股利可以起到一定信号传递的作用，特别是现金股利，可以帮投资者甄别品质不同的公司，促进上市公司的优胜劣汰，提高投资效益。     

经济政策不确定性对人寿保险需求的影响

根据背景风险理论推测,经济政策不确定性作为一类不可保的宏观政策风险,可能对保险需求变动产生影响。本文利用Baker等(2013)测算的中国经济政策不确定性指数,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对中国各省人寿保险需求变动的影响,以及在不同异质性条件下的影响差异。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性对寿险需求有显著正影响,且其在经济周期的不同阶段存在显著差异;第二,教育水平的提升会一定程度促进经济政策不确定性对寿险需求的正影响;第三,经济政策不确定性对不同类型寿险需求的影响存在差异,具有保障功能的普通寿险和投资收益灵活稳健的万能险需求受到显著正影响;最后,经济政策不确定性对人寿保险保费增长的影响主要集中在新单保费。因此,政府部门应在保证经济政策连贯性的同时,提升民众的教育水平和避险意识,引导其主动购买保险,尽量降低政策波动产生的影响,分类推进不同类型人寿保险市场的扩大。     

The Impact of Portfolio Diversification on Trading Rules Profits: Some Evidence for UK Share Portfolios

This paper demonstrates how the autocorrelation structure of UK portfolio returns is linked to dynamic interrelationships among the component securities of that portfolio. Moreover, portfolio return autocorrelation is shown to be an increasing function of the number of securities in the portfolio. Since the security interrelationships seemed to be more a product of their history of non-synchronous trading than of systematic industry-related phenomena, it should not be possible to exploit the high levels of return persistence using trading rules. We show that rules designed to exploit this portfolio autocorrelation structure do not produce economic profits.     

The Impact of Options Trading on the Market Quality of the Underlying Security: An Empirical Analysis

We find that option listings are associated with a decrease in the variance of the pricing error, a decrease in the adverse selection component of the spread, and an increase in the relative weight placed by the specialist on public information in revising prices for the underlying stocks. We also find that there is a decrease in the spread and increases in quoted depth, trading volume, trading frequency, and transaction size after option listings. Overall, our results suggest that option listings improve the market quality of the underlying stocks.     

Inflation Uncertainty, Real-Interest-Rate Uncertainty, and the Liquidity Premium on Government Bonds

This paper shows that the components of uncertainty about nominal interest rates, real-rate uncertainty and inflation uncertainty, have different effects on the liquidity premium. An increase in inflation uncertainty should increase the equilibrium liquidity premium because investors reduce the effect of inflation uncertainty on the riskiness of their portfolios by holding more short-term bonds. In contrast, an investor can reduce the effects of uncertainty about future ex-ante real rates on portfolio return by matching more closely the maturity dates of the bonds held with the date on which the portfolio is to be liquidated for consumption purposes. Thus, the effect of an increase in real-rate uncertainty on the equilibrium liquidity premium is ambiguous, depending on the relative magnitudes of long-term and short-term saving and the proportions of short-term and long-term bonds issued by the government.