决策过程中错误规避的自信心模型

一般而言,错误是由系统内部的不精确性所致,能否避免决策过程中的错误,首先应分析人类决策过程,从中找出错误产生的环节及错误的结构,过度信心容易引发认知型错误,可以通过建立适当的自信心模型规避决策过程中错误。     

Strategic Decision Making of the Firm Under Asymmetric Information

This paper develops a simple signaling model whereby high valuation firm uses levels of investment, debt and dividends to convey information to the market regarding its valuation. Conditions are determined under which investment, debt and dividends are employed in a separating Nash equilibrium. Unlike many other signaling models where the source of asymmetric information concerns only the mean of the firms' cash flow, our model allows for two sources of asymmetric information: the mean and the variance of the cash flow. This paper finds that the choice of signals depends on the relative importance of these two sources of informational asymmetry. For example, we show that high valued firms signal their values by decreasing their debt if the source of asymmetric information is mainly driven by the variance of the cash flows. This latter result differs from the debt signaling models found in the literature. The findings of this paper are consistent with extensive empirical evidence.     

信息不对称下中小企业融资决策行为探讨——以宜兴市中小企业为例

引言 有关中小企业与中小企业融资难问题一直以来都是理论界关注的焦点.早些时候的文献大多把其症结归因于制度歧视(王元璋、赵中杰,1998;李琳、陆三育,1999;黄锡钦、李芳,1999;张杰,2000).如张杰坚持他一贯的"体制内"和"体制外"的二分法,从体制的角度论述民营经济发展中遇到的困难.从实践来看,体制的影响已经大大降低.因此,对中小企业尤其是中小企业融资问题需要重新考虑.     

Integrating Credit Models Using Accounting Information With Loan Officers' Decision Processes

This paper focuses on loan officers' cognitive processes of problem detection and problem-hypothesis formulation, which are incorporated into a credit model when they are confronted with loan decisions. Prior credit models in banking have not directly addressed loan officers' internal processes in a loan situation. The integration of both loan officers' cognitive processes and information used in a credit model can better help explain their decision-making biases. The results presented in this paper showed that information derived from a credit model influences loan officers' problem detection and problem-hypothesis formulation, and these processes are important factors in their loan approval. To identify loan officers' decision-making processes, the approach used in this paper integrates principles from financial management, economics, and cognitive psychology with methodological developments from psychometrics and econometrics.     

Usefulness of CCA Information for Investor Decision Making: A Laboratory Experiment

The aim of this study was to test the assertion of New Zealand company directors that CCA information was not useful for investor decision making. Subjects made investment decisions based on their predictions concerning two similar, real (identity disguised) companies. These decisions and other evaluations were made in a post-test only, control group design experiment. CCA's relevance and reliability according to particular definitions of these characteristics was thus assessed. The results show that current cost accounts are more useful for investor decision making because they are both more relevant and perceived to be more reliable than conventional historical cost accounts.     

"一带一路"倡议实施与企业金融化决策

依据2009-2018年沪深两市A股上市非金融企业数据,基于2014年"一带一路"倡议实施这一准自然实验,考量"一带一路"倡议实施对企业金融化水平的影响.结果显示:"一带一路"倡议的实施可以显著抑制企业的金融化水平;"一带一路"倡议实施对企业金融化水平的抑制效应仅在非国有企业、内部控制质量高、东部地区以及重点扶持行业的公司中存在;缓解融资约束是"一带一路"倡议实施抑制企业金融化水平的一个重要渠道.     

Decision Processes, Agency Problems, and Information: An Economic Analysis of Capital Budgeting Procedures

Corporations use a variety of processes to allocate capital.This article studies the benefits and costs of several commonbudget procedures from the perspective of a model with agencyand information problems. Processes that delegate aspects ofthe decision to the agent result in too many projects beingapproved, while processes in which the principal retains theright to reject projects cause the agent to strategically distorthis information about project quality. We show how the choiceof a decision process depends on these two costs, and specificallyon severity of the agency problem, quality of information, andproject risk.     

The Impact of Affective Reactions on Risky Decision Making in Accounting Contexts

In this study we examine whether managers' affective reactions influence their risk–taking tendencies in capital budgeting decisions. Prior research on risky decision making indicates that decision makers are often risk averse when choosing among alternatives that yield potential gains, and risk taking when the alternatives yield losses. The results reported here indicate that negative or positive affective reactions can change this commonly found risky behavior. Managers were generally risk avoiding (taking) for gains (losses) in the absence of affective reactions, as predicted by prospect theory. However, when affect was present, they tended to reject investment alternatives that elicited negative affect and accept alternatives that elicited positive affect, resulting in risk taking (avoiding) in gain (loss) contexts. The results also indicate that affective reactions can influence managers to choose alternatives with lower economic value, suggesting that managers consider both financial data and affective reactions when evaluating the utility of a decision alternative. These findings point to the importance of considering affective reactions when attempting to understand and predict risky decision making in accounting contexts.     

The Role of Profitability in Divisional Decision Making and Performance Evaluation

The use of profitability, typically in the form of return on investment, to assess divisional financial performance has been widely criticised, since it involves the allocation to divisions of central fixed costs. The measure is, however, extensively used. Prior surveys have indicated economic reasons for use of the measure, but the justification supplied has been incomplete. The survey reported in this paper found evidence for the same economic reasons, but it has also provided additional justification. The new finding is that the measure is widely used for making inter-division and inter-firm comparisons.     

The Impact of Insurance Prices on Decision Making Biases: An Experimental Analysis

This article tests whether the use of endogenous risk categorization by insurers enables consumers to make better‐informed decisions even if they do not choose to purchase insurance. We do so by adding a simple insurance market to an experimental test of optimal (Bayesian) updating. In some sessions, no insurance is offered. In others, actuarially fair insurance prices are posted, and a subset of subjects is allowed to purchase this insurance. We find significant differences in the decision rules used depending on whether one observes insurance prices. Although the majority of choices correspond to Bayesian updating, the incidence of optimal decisions is higher in sessions with an insurance option. Most subjects given the option to purchase actuarially fair insurance choose to do so. However, fewer subjects purchase insurance when the probability of a loss is higher.     

Governance of the Regulatory Decision Making Process

The author looks at how regulatory decisions are taken, and implemented, at national as well as international level and discusses issues such as independence of regulatory and supervisory authorities, regulatory capture and the rivalry in decision taking between Basel, Brussels and Washington.     

The Issue Decision of Manager-Owners under Information Asymmetry

A firm must issue common stock in order to undertake a new investment, and the firm's manager-owners can value the firm more accurately than the market. The ability of the manager-owners to trade in the firm's shares during the issue (a) reduces the investments that are foregone because of the market's mispricing the firm's shares, (b) changes the size and direction of the stock price change when the firm announces a new stock issue, and (c) changes the market value of the firm before and after the issue announcement, whether or not it decides to issue.     

Political Views and Corporate Decision Making: The Case of Corporate Social Responsibility

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and political beliefs in the United States. By analyzing the 2004 presidential election results of communities in which corporate headquarters are located, we establish a correlation between the political beliefs of corporate stakeholders and the CSR ratings of their firms. Companies with a high CSR rating tend to be located in Democratic, or “blue” states and counties, while companies with a low CSR rating tend to be located in Republican, or “red” states and counties.     

商业银行市场风险披露对使用者的决策影响研究

本文从使用者风险分析的角度分析了企业会计准则第37号的市场风险披露对商业银行报表使用者的影响,得出了四个结论:37号准则关于市场风险的定义是恰当的,有利于商业银行报表使用者做出更为有效的风险分析;商业银行报表使用者比准则制定的预期有更为复杂的风险分析;37号准则允许的灵活性要求商业银行报表使用者有较高水平的风险分析能力;37号准则有必要进一步要求商业银行披露特定的对风险分析至关重要的量化信息。本研究以商业银行和市场风险为研究重点,研究结论对其他行业以及其他种类的风险披露也具有一定的扩展意义。     

Fair Value‐related Information in Analysts’ Decision Processes: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

We use a sample of conference calls and analyst research reports from international banks to examine how financial analysts request and communicate fair value‐related information in their valuation process. We find that analysts devote considerable attention to fair value‐related topics. Most of the conference call questions and references in research reports pertain to fair value reclassifications and fair value changes of liabilities resulting from banks’ own credit risk. The accounting impact of these one‐time effects during the financial crisis and a lack of corresponding firm disclosures help to explain the prevalence of these two topics. The content of the questions and references suggests that analysts have different motives for their interest in fair value‐related information. While some analysts adjust reported earnings for unrecognised fair value changes of reclassified assets, most of the observed analysts exclude banks’ own credit risk effects from reported earnings. Thus, the use of fair value‐related information varies substantially across analysts and across instruments.     

Win Some,Lose Some: The Effect of Chronic Losses on Decision Making Under Risk

Losses, including those that are chronic in nature, are a fact of life. The research reported here was designed to examine, using a controlled experiment, the effect of chronic losses in a given contextual domain on subsequent decisions with uncertain outcomes that take place in the same and in unrelated domains. Randomly selected adult subjects who took part in the experiment were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: One group, chronic losers, was exposed to chronic financial losses as part of a controlled, multi‐round gambling simulation. Groups two and three were exposed to chronic wins and random outcomes, respectively, as part of the same gambling simulation. Results from the experiment revealed that chronic losses, in contrast to random outcomes and chronic wins, had clear effects on decision making in the domain where the initial losses were incurred. Subjects who were exposed to the chronic loss induction demonstrated a significantly higher level of risk aversion when compared with subjects who were exposed to either random outcomes or chronic wins. Subjects exposed to chronic losses also displayed a depressed affective state and a tendency to accept less as an outcome of future decisions, and still consider it to be a satisfactory result, when compared to subjects in the two control conditions. There appears to be no spillover, however, of a similar degree of risk aversion when considering similar kinds of decisions in unrelated contextual domains. These results seem consistent with prospect theory and the theory of learned helplessness, and have implications for risk communication and management in a variety of contexts.     

预算报告编制参与、调整及其决策价值

预算报告作为管理会计报告的一个重要组成部分,被广泛运用于企业的经营管理。为探究预算报告决策价值的影响因素及其作用机理,我们深入企业调查预算报告运用现状和效果,并通过问卷调查形式获得第一手数据。本文基于179个问卷样本,采用因子分析等统计方法研究预算报告编制参与、预算调整对预算报告决策价值的影响。研究结果表明,较高的参与度以及适时的调整可以有效地改善预算报告的决策价值,且在发生调整时引入参与这一因素可以进一步提高预算报告的决策价值。