从资本充足率到有形普通股权益比率——透视经济危机背景下资本监管新趋势

一直以来,作为银行业监管核心指标一资本充足率,担负着监测银行资本充足情况、反映银行稳健经营程度的重任。在各国的银行业监管实践中,该指标的有效性得到了各界人士的肯定。但在此次史无前例的经济危机中,其有效性却受到了严重挑战。如何有效测度商业银行资本充足情况,未来的资本监管方式将如何完善,本文将对此进行探讨。     

The Generalized Treynor Ratio

This paper extends the Treynor performance ratio for a single index to the case of multiple indexes. The new measure, called the Generalized Treynor Ratio, preserves the same key geometric and analytical properties of the original Treynor Ratio. The Generalized Treynor Ratio is defined as the abnormal return of a portfolio per unit of premium-weighted average systematic risk, normalized by the premium-weighted average systematic risk of the benchmark. Numerical simulations reveal that the portfolio rankings produced with this measure are more precise and more stable than the ones provided by Jensen’s alpha and the Information Ratio.I wish to thank Wayne Ferson, Pascal François, Eric Jacquier, Lars Tyge Nielsen, Nicolas Papageorgiou, Peter Schotman, Marco Pagano (the Editor) and three anonymous referees, as well as participants at the 2003 International AFFI Conference (Lyon), the 2003 NFA Conference (Qu’ebec) and seminars at Maastricht University and CORE (Louvain-la-Neuve) for helpful comments. The author acknowledges financial support from Deloitte Luxemburg and a research grant of the Belgian National Funds for Scientific Research (FNRS). Part of this research was completed while I was visiting HEC Montr’ eal. All errors remaining are mine.     

The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio

Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years.     

Ratio controls need reconsideration

Bank equity capital can play several roles; for example as a buffer against (unexpected) loss, as protection for other creditors in bankruptcy, and as ‘skin in the game’. There was never sufficient discussion of which role(s) the BCBS capital adequacy requirements (CARs) were meant to play, and whether they did so satisfactorily. In practice they did not. I discuss what principles should lie behind CARs if we could design these from scratch. I argue that there should be a minimum intervention point triggering official action to depose management and shareholders, and then move to resolution, with an increasingly penal ladder of sanctions as equity capital falls towards this point. A similar approach should also be applied to liquidity requirements.     

资本充足率、市值资产比例与银行风险

基于风险和回报的基本关系,本文检验了以会计指标为主要计量尺度的资本充足率和以市场指标为计量手段的市值资产比例是否能够代表银行风险。研究发现,会计指标在没有被操控的情况下可以预测银行风险。虽然资本充足率也能够反映银行风险,但市值资产比例对银行股价回报的解释力更强,尤其在危机时期。本文建议,监管机构依然可以坚持选用资本充足率这样的会计指标监控银行风险,同时辅以市场指标,因为中国资本市场受到人为因素和政策因素干扰较多,股票价格不一定如实反映内涵价值,还应该坚持以会计指标为主。     

Industry Identification through Ratio Analysis

This case ¹ is designed to help students “see through the numbers”. Written initially for MBA students and senior analysts attending executive education sessions, it provides participants with (1) a common‐size balance sheet and selected financial ratios for ten anonymous Canadian public companies, and (2) a list of ten diverse industry sectors. Participants are invited to reflect on the meanings of the different ratios provided in order to match the anonymous companies with their corresponding industry sector. Seeing through the numbers fosters the development of participants' analytical skills, and group discussions contribute to the sharing of participants' knowledge about the various industry segments involved.     

关于拨备覆盖率的思考

商业银行不良资产拨备覆盖率常常被作为衡最银行抵御信用风险能力的指标.本文认为,拨备覆盖率并非越高越好,南于其内在局限性,它反映银行抵御信用风险能力的准确程度受不良贷款结构和漏划不良贷款等因素的影响,并可能产牛扭曲对银行抵御风险能力的评价、掩盖银行真实的财务状况、影响银行利润的合理使用以及降低银行监管的严肃性和权威性等负面影响.因此,为完善拨备考核指标,本文提出应以预期损失为基础考核银行冲销不良贷款损失的实际能力,设计新的贷款减值拨备率指标;并认为在确定减值准备指标时,考虑系统性风险既无实际意义,也缺乏可操作性.     

准备金率考验企业资金面

目前,政府正在采取各种措施解决CPI偏高的问题,其中包括消除导致物价走高的货币因素。随着央行数次提高存款准备金率及加息,宏观政策已进入新一轮紧缩时期,企业的资金面将受到再次考验。     

Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation

This paper presents an alternate method for transforming financial ratios. Ratios are ranked and scaled into a uniform distribution with boundaries between 0 and 1. Conceptually, we suggest that this method solves a number of methodological problems associated with ratios, including constrained choice of regression models, ratio outliers, negative ratios, and non-normal distributions. Scaled ranks of financial ratios are also conceptually appealing because they appear to capture comparative ordinal data about cross-sectional relationships between firms.The study empirically tests scaled rank transformations by examining the association of the transformations with stock returns. Results show that models using relative ranked accounting ratios have more explanatory and predictive power than untransformed, log-transformed and square-root transformed ratios.     

我国股市市盈率分析

针对当前我国沪深股市平均超过60倍的市盈率，有关人士忧心忡忡，认为市盈市过高，超过了欧美国家股市市盈率30倍的警戒线，笔者认为 深两市的总体市盈率状况，是与我国的基本国情、经济发展状况和所处的经济周期，市场利率水平，企业的获利能力和成长能力相适应的，没有偏离经济运行的总体轨道，当然，市盈率不高并不意味着股票市不存在风险，加强监督管是化解股市风险、防止股市泡沫膨胀和过度投机的重要举措。     

The Moving Average Ratio and Momentum

I show the ratio of the short‐term moving average to the long‐term moving average (moving average ratio, MAR) has significant predictive power for future returns. The MAR combined with nearness to the 52‐week high explains most of the intermediate‐term momentum profits. This suggests that an anchoring bias, in which investors use moving averages or the 52‐week high as reference points for estimating fundamental values, is the primary source of momentum effects. Momentum caused by the anchoring bias do not disappear in the long‐run even when there are return reversals, confirming that intermediate‐term momentum and long‐term reversals are separate phenomena.     

值得关注的税收依存度

税收依存度，可能是一个暂未载入现有词典中的经济词汇。它的提出和应用，颇有点中国特色。……     

是否应该提高法定存款准备金率？

中国人民银行吴晓灵副行长最近一次的讲话引起了市场对央行在近期提高存款准备金率的猜测。最新的数据显示“松货币”的状况将有可能转变成“松信贷”,这也许更加重了央行高层的担忧。随着央行票据收益率的上升和超额准备金数额的下降,提高存款准备金率有可能成为央行收回过多流动性的低成本工具。如果存款准备金率提高0.5个百分点(即从7.5%提高到8%),对流动性最直接的影响将是收回800-1100亿人民币。流动性的进一步趋紧将加大人民币升值的压力。提高存款准备金率还将改善货币政策的传导机制,但它是一个效力较猛的货币政策工具,这凸显了目前货币政策实施中所面临的困境。较优的政策组合应该具有加快人民币升值和使外汇更方便地流出这些特征,以减缓快速增长的外汇储备,因为这是目前流动性过多的根源。     

投资率差异的国际比较

投资率的主要差异来自于国别影响,也与时间、年份密切相关.一国的投资率主要受结构性因素的影响,这些因素国别间差异较大,但一般是比较稳定的.     

提高存款准备金率与流动性分析

0．5个百分点的调整对应回笼银行体系内资金1600亿～1700亿元左右,虽然对银行信贷和市场流动性的实际影响均不大,但其是一种警示作用,更多的是对市场预期产生影响。     

怎样确定最优的转贷比例——谈小额贷款公司的前途

<正>我国现在对转贷比的规定实在是没有多大根据,这样的规定极不利于为数众多的小额贷款公司的发展。我国农村穷,主要是因为解放后对农业的破坏比较大,生产关系被全面搅乱,劳动没有积极性,所有权被严重忽视。而且改     

准备金率和资本充足率影响商业银行贷款规模的机制分析

货币银行传统理论认为:货币当局以准备金率控制贷款规模,以资本充足率控制贷款风险。本文从分析准备金与资本充足率对贷款规模的约束机制入手,引入银行资产负债表模型,证明银行贷款规模主要受资本充足率影响。研究结论是:准备金率对贷款规模的控制作用已经弱化,资本充足率对贷款规模的控制作用趋强。