Valuation of a Developmental Drug as a Real Option

Valuing a capital investment as a real option (or series of options) has advantages over standard DCF valuation when the investment creates the future flexibility to delay, abandon, or expand an element of the project based on the resolution of a major source of uncertainty. The uncertainty is generally dealt with using a “volatility” term that aims to reflect the variability in the future value of the underlying asset. But there are certain situations in which the uncertainty has a second dimension. For example, drugs in development can be abandoned either because of bad technical outcomes (the drug doesn't work) or unfavorable resolutions of market risk (though the drug works, its market potential turns out to be too limited). In an article published earlier in this journal, the authors illustrated the valuation of an early‐stage pharma R&D investment using a real options approach in which the market and technical risks were folded together into the volatility parameter. In this article, the authors explain why they have concluded that this is an incorrect approach and then show how to handle market and technical risk as two separate dimensions of risk in valuing an R&D program. The potential use of this technique extends beyond pharma and biotech R&D to any situation in which the outcome of an important uncertainty is independent of the resolution of market risk associated with the underlying asset.     

大学理念、大学精神与大学文化

大学理念、大学精神和大学文化,是既有联系又相互区别的概念.但由于种种原因,学界对以上三个概念的表述和理解往往存在着一些差异,概念泛化使用现象屡见不鲜.明确大学理念、大学精神与大学文化之间的联系与区别,对于我们正确把握其内在联系,继续深入探讨大学之道具有重要意义.     

庙堂之高 江湖之远——一名注册会计师的参政生涯

2003年1月17日,会场布置得格外庄严。政协江西省第九届委员会第一次会议举行选举大会。在九十余名常委候选人中,有一名候选人引起了众人的关注:他是最年轻的候选人,时年不满35岁;他是唯——名社会中介组织代表人士,一名注册会计师。选举结果:高票当选。     

An asymptotic expansion of bias in a non-linear function of a set of unbiased characteristics from a finite sample

Abstract

Very often one has to make an estimate of some function f (m) of a certain characteristic m belonging to a certain distribution. However, m is often unknown and then it may be necessary, somehow, to estimate m with the corresponding unbiased characteristic x from a sample consisting of n individuals which may be one- or multidimensional. If f (x) is a linear function it is evident that .     

Making a Drama Out of a Crisis a Dramaturgical Perspective on the New Technology Controversy

The introduction of new technology often leads to strong public concerns about potential hazards. There are situations where unfounded concerns obstruct highly beneficial developments, but, equally, there are situations where unintended consequences of new technology are overlooked and individuals are harmed. Clearly there are advantages in improving the dialogue between those introducing the technology and those who could be affected by it.

This article uses dramaturgical analysis to explore the interactions between actors in a real life case study, the introduction of a hydrogen refuelling facility in London. Dramaturgical analysis in the traditions of Burke and Goffman explores interactions from the perspective of impression management. The thesis is that the fronts that actors use must relate to the settings they find themselves in, and this matching of front with setting constrains what can credibly be communicated in any situation. This research provides insights into the differences between the front necessary for credibility within an organisation and the fronts necessary for credibility in communicating with the public. It demonstrates how communication can be blocked by the situations actors find themselves in and conflict can emerge as a substitute for effective communication.     

扎实工作热情服务做好注册会计师后续教育培训工作

一、具体做法 (一)制定培训规划,明确培训目标,完善培训制度 我们根据全省注册会计师行业发展情况和经济建设的需要,先后制定了《山东省注册会计师事业发展"九五"计划和2010年远景规划》(以下简称《规划》)、《山东省注册会计师后续教育培训规定》、《山东省注册会计师后续教育培训工作管理办法》、《山东省注册会计师后续教育培训工作奖励办法》、《山东省注册会计师后续教育培训兼职教师管理办法》,明确了我省今后一个较长时期内注册会计师培训工作的目标,并对培训工作的组织和管理做出了具体规定和要求,如奖励办法中规定,凡获得后续教育培训工作先进单位的事务所,按获奖单位上缴团体会费的5%,另加500元人民币进行奖励.     

客户转账时填错卡号的法律责任分析

本文从案例分析入手,剖析了填错卡号错汇款项纠纷案件的法律风险及各方当事人应承担的法律责任,认为不当得利第三人对汇错款项既无财产所有权又无存款债权,无权要求汇入行偿还不当得利,汇入行根据汇款人申请办理退汇手续,完全符合法律规定,法院对本汇兑纠纷案件的审理出现认定事实和适用法律错误。作者探讨了错误汇款法律救济的有关途径,阐述了此类案件对国家、社会、银行、公民等多元主体的法治启示,特别在当代银行业实现数字化、信息化并与国际接轨的背景下,本案例的探讨对依法维护汇款人、银行、收款人的合法利益具有积极的现实意义。     

海淀：在更高层次上实现经济又好又快发展

全力做好奥运筹办和服务保障工作是今年海淀区的重点2007年,海淀区认真学习贯彻党的十七大和北京市,海淀区第十次党代会精神,紧紧围绕建设富裕民主文明和谐新海淀战略目标,求真务实,锐意进取,较好地完成了各项工作任务。预计全区实现生产总值1750亿元,比上年增长15%,人均生产总值超过8000美元,第三产业比重超过80%。区级财政收入115.7亿元,增长29.1%,城市居民人均可支配收入25086元,增长17%;农民人均纯收入12542元,增长14%。     

On a class of loans with a systematic amortisation schedule

Abstract

In this paper we show that a single set of formulas will characterise a wide range of standard loans. This makes it possible to describe these loans in a compact manner and facilitates the design of computer programs calculating their characteristics. The characterisation includes the entire amortisation schedule before and after tax and the duration and convexity measures.     

The idea of a collaborative competition - a case study

This paper examines the idea of an online collaborative competition for solutions to environmental and social problems. It asks three basic questions: What is a collaborative competition? In what sense are collaborative competitions collaborative? And in view of the social and environmental goals of the competitions, are they a contribution to sustainability practice? Prepared by a conceptual analysis, partly drawing on the arguments for extended peer review in post-normal science, and based on the in-depth analysis of one collaborative competition, it is argued that the idea of a collaborative competition is innovative and suggestive; however, in practice there is only weak evidence for collaboration - the competitive element clearly prevails. The innovation, in practice, is a new way of making visible and thereby promoting social and environmental ideas. There is some evidence for collaborative spirit, but there is only limited evidence that arguments for extended peer review apply. The design of the online collaborative competition might not promote collaboration as well as it could. Therefore, the paper ends with a discussion of possibilities for changing the design of the competition.     

The risk of a currency swap: a multivariate-binomial methodology

In general, the risk of a financial instrument on a future valuation date depends on several stochastic variables. In the case of a currency swap, its value on a future date, can be modelled as a function of five stochastic variables. These represent the factors that determine the term structure of interest rates in the two currencies, and the foreign exchange rate between the currencies. The joint-probability distribution of the relevant variables on the horizon date is approximated by a multivariate-binomial distribution. The proposed methodology provides a fast and flexible alternative to Monte-Carlo simulation of the swap value. The distributions of value produced by the method can be employed to assist with both market and credit risk management.     

On asymptotic properties of an estimate of a functional of a probability density

Abstract

Bhattacharyya & Roussas (1969) proposed to estimate the functional Δ = ∫ _?∞/^∞ f ²(x)dx by , where is a kernel estimate of the probability density f(x). Schuster (1974) proposed, alternatively, to estimate Δ by , where F _n (x) is the sample distribution function, and showed that the two estimates attain the same rate of strong convergence to Δ. In this note, two large sample properties of are presented, first strong convergence of to Δ is established under less assumptions than those of Schuster (1974), and second the asymptotic normality of established.     

Anatomy of a bail-in

To mitigate potential contagion from future banking crises, the European Commission recently proposed a framework which would provide for the bail-in of bank creditors in the event of failure. In this study, we examine this framework retrospectively in the context of failed European banks during the global financial crisis. Empirical findings suggest that equity and subordinated bond holders would have been the main losers from the €535 billion impairment losses realized by failed European banks. Losses attributed to senior debt holders would, on aggregate, have been proportionally small, while no losses would have been imposed on depositors. Cross-country analysis, incorporating stress-tests, reveals a divergence of outcomes with subordinated debt holders wiped out in a number of countries, while senior debt holders of Greek, Austrian and Irish banks would have required bail-in.     

Role of monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy: a note from a laboratory experiment

This paper discusses an experimental study on the role of monetary policy within a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework. The novelty of this article is that each subject was asked to forecast both the inflation rate and output gap at the same time one period ahead, which is an improvement over the existing literature. We find that if both the expected inflation rate and expected output gap is incorporated in the monetary policy rule then inflation can be anchored and stabilized more efficiently.     

十年磨一剑——工行个人网银客户突破1亿暨电子银行业务占比超60%感怀

工商银行电子银行业务量占全部业务量的比重超过60%,这差不多相当于17000个物理网点、17万个柜员办理的业务量,等于再造了一个＂虚拟＂的工行。若以每笔电子银行与柜面业务成本的差额计算,2010年工商银行电子银行业务节约经营成本260多亿元。     

男人的强大

我的先生又瘦且个小。我一直觉得他缺少保护女人和孩子的能力。 婚后,自己的感觉立即得到了验证。一是挤公交车,基本上是我占好了位子,让他坐享其成,他还常将我占的位子让给有需求的人,自己站着。二是我家烧的煤气罐。十有八九是我一个人挪上去的,要不就是自己花钱让搬运工扛上楼。     

Impact of Replacing a Defined Benefit Pension with a Defined Contribution Plan or a Cash Balance Plan

Abstract

Four pension plan conversions are examined to determine the impact on retirement benefits of workers. The study was based on interviews with top management, employee surveys, and actuarial analysis of retirement benefits under the old and new pension plans. In general, workers who leave the firm prior to the age of early retirement can expect increased benefits under the new defined contribution and cash balance plans, whereas older, more senior workers can expect to accrue smaller benefits after the plan conversions. Recognizing these potential adverse effects, the employers in our studies provided various types of transition benefits to existing workers or gave employees the choice of remaining in the old defined benefit plan. Employee surveys reveal that younger workers are more supportive of the new pension plans than are older workers. These case studies also indicate that communication by managements with their employees is very important to the successful implementation of plan conversions.