Prospectus Earnings Forecasts: Evidence And Explanations

Recent changes to prospectus regulations have generated considerable controversy. While the legally enforceable definition of “required information” may be uncertain, it seems clear that earnings forecasts are expected to play an important role. However, we find that the accuracy of these forecasts is questionable, as are many of the explanations offered for differences with the actual results. This calls into question the methods used for estimating future earnings and, ultimately, the usefulness of such forecasts. Laws relating to liability for prospectus information make this an issue of some concern for investors, as well as accountants and other professional advisers.     

Debt Management by Companies Entering the Unlisted Securities Market

Using data drawn from the quotation of firms on UK secondary equity markets between November 1980 and March 1985, the paper examines the debt position and debt behaviour of such crucial firms at this critical point in their existence. It is concluded that newly-quoted firms are financially imbalanced at their quotation, but that this is only weakly related to their size, industry, growth, riskiness and yields. Clear evidence exists that entrants move towards target debt ratios, but these targets are again only poorly related to characteristics of firms suggested by the finance literature to be of importance in capital structure decisions.     

国外证券分析师盈利预测实证研究综述

在对投资决策、资本成本、公司评估、盈余与股价的关系等进行探讨的文献中，分析师的盈利预测被广泛地用作盈利预期的代理变量，成为理论研究的一项基础。本文对国外证券分析师盈利预测的实证研究文献进行了综述，分析、比较了盈利预测业绩衡量标准、各衡量模型的优劣、乐观偏差、预测修正、意见分歧以及分析师跟进等理论。     

Initial Public Offerings on the Unlisted Securities Market: The Impact of Professional Advisers

This paper tests two hypotheses developed in the context of information asymmetry between companies making initial public offerings (IPO) on the Unlisted Securities Market and potential investors. It is argued that the status of the sponsor and audit firm are interpreted by potential investors as signals of an IPO's quality. The results indicate that for IPOs made during 1986–87 the level of discount and the status of the associated auditing firm are significantly related. Higher quality auditing firms are associated with lower levels of discount. A similar relationship for IPOs made during the period 1988–89 is not detected. The paper suggests that there were significant changes in the IPO market between these two periods. No relationship in either period is detected between the level of discount and the status of the sponsor.     

中国证券市场存在的主要问题及其矫正

中国证券市场已经经历了10多年的发展历程,成就令世界瞩目,但由于当前面临的种种问题致使其进一步的发展受阻,分析其历史成因及存在的主要问题,提出相应问题的解决办法便成为当前的紧要任务.     

业绩预告披露与盈余管理研究

盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现：发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及＂变脸＂对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。     

Barriers to Entry in the Unlisted Securities Market: the Significance of Administrative Expenses

This paper analyses the significance of administrative expenses incurred by a comprehensive sample of firms obtaining quotation on the Unlisted Securities Market and Official List in the 1980s. It is concerned with the extent to which barriers to entry in the new issue market arising from the existence of high fixed costs of obtaining a quotation established in previous research have been reduced as a result of the introduction of the USM. A comparative analysis is undertaken, examining the relative costs of new issues in the USM and the Official List, together with a study of whether total expenses are affected by the route chosen for ultimate progression to the Official List. The research examines the extent to which cost variation can be attributed to differences in characteristics of the issue and of the firms themselves so as to generate continuing and significant economies of scale. Finally, the paper considers briefly whether competition in the new issue market has been associated with a reduction over time in the real cost of expenses, or whether, as has been alleged, USM costs are again increasing at a faster rate than inflation.     

管理者盈利预测、过度自信与市场效应

管理者盈利预测在金融市场中具有重要的经济地位,我们选择了沪深两市2006-2009年的管理者盈利预测数据对管理者盈利预测与管理者过度自信、市场效应之间的关系进行了检验,与Hilary和Hsu的研究结论不同,我们发现:(1)管理者当前的盈利预测准确性会受到历史盈利预测准确性的影响,管理者在经历了较多的准确盈利预测之后会变得过度自信;(2)管理者在盈利预测上的过度自信会导致当前盈利预测的准确性降低;(3)管理者历史盈利预测的准确性并不会对市场造成明显影响,投资者和分析师在当前管理者盈利预测信息发布之后所做出的反应与管理者盈利预测历史准确的次数无显著的相关关系。本文的研究不仅丰富了国内有关盈利预测研究的相关文献,而且对提高我国资本市场上管理者盈利预测的准确性,加强市场参与者对上市公司信息披露的使用效率,进而提升投资决策具有重要的启示作用,同时对于我国监管机构完善信息披露制度具有重要政策意义。     

中国证券市场发展中的制度与法治问题

决定证券市场效率的关键在于该市场是由政府主导还是由市场本身主导；法治不完善的国家只能采用政府干预作为法治的替代品，这种政府干预往往降低了证券市场合理配置资源的功能。因此，政府淡出证券市场干预的关键在于国家的法治是否完备。     

The Effect of Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management

We develop a theory of the association between earnings management and voluntary management forecasts in an agency setting. Earnings management is modeled as a "window dressing" action that can increase the firm's reported accounting earnings but has no impact on the firm's real cash flows. Earnings forecasts are modeled as the manager's communication of the firm's future cash flows. We show that it is easier to prevent the manager from managing earnings if he is asked to forecast earnings. We also show that earnings management is more likely to follow high earnings forecasts than low earnings forecasts. Finally, our analysis shows that shareholders may not find it optimal to prohibit earnings management. Earlier results rationalize earnings management by violating some assumption underlying the Revelation Principle. By contrast, in our model the principal can make full commitments and communication is unrestricted. Nonetheless, earnings management can be beneficial as it reduces the cost of eliciting truthful forecasts.     

论我国证券市场会计监管问题

如何加强对证券市场的会计监管,是关系到我国证券市场能否稳定、健康有序发展的重大问题,本文根据我国证券市场会计监管的现状,提出了我国证券市场会计监管思路是需要进一步规范与完善会计准则和会计制度,证券市场监管政策需要合理化,此外还必须强化注册会计师审计的独立性.     

制度变革、盈余持续性与市场定价行为研究

本文将会计制度变迁、配股政策的变革和股权分置改革作为资本市场制度变革的典型代表引入Ohlson剩余收益模型,结合盈余持续性分析了其对市场定价行为的影响。研究发现:随着我国证券市场的发展,营业利润在市场定价中发挥着主导作用,线下项目的定价作用减弱;随着配股政策和会计制度等的改革,线下项目对配股权在市场定价中的作用下降;会计制度改革和股权分置改革增强了持续性盈余的定价作用。这说明,制度变革提高了市场效率。     

Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues

This paper develops a signalling model with two signals, two attributes, and a continuum of signal levels and attribute types to explain new issue underpricing. Both the fraction of the new issue retained by the issuer and its offering price convey to investors the unobservable “intrinsic” value of the firm and the variance of its cash flows. Many of the model's comparative statics results are novel, empirically testable, and consistent with the existing empirical evidence on new issues. In particular, the degree of underpricing, which can be inferred from observable variables, is positively related to the firm's post-issue share price.     

盈余管理、盈余管理属性与审计意见——基于中国证券市场的经验证据

过去的文献一直把盈余管理看成同质风险,而本文把盈余管理按属性划分为决策有用性盈余管理和机会主义盈余管理,采用1999年至2008年A股上市公司作为研究样本,研究了审计师能否对不同属性的盈余管理做出差别反应,并表现在审计意见决策上。研究结果发现,在同样进行了盈余管理的样本中,审计师能够区分不同属性的盈余管理,对高风险的机会主义盈余管理应计额出具非标意见的概率大于低风险的决策有用性盈余管理的应计额。     

Business Cycle and Management Earnings Forecasts

This study examines the effects of the economic cycle on the properties of management earnings forecasts. Although a large volume of accounting literature examines the determinants of managerial earnings forecasts, the properties of such forecasts, and the response of market participants to earnings forecasts (Cameron 1986; King et al., 1990; Hirst et al., 2008), research on management earnings forecasting incentivized by macro‐economic factors has received scant empirical investigation. We use the National Bureau of Economic Research economic cycle definition to operationalize economic recession, and consider some commonly used management earnings forecast characteristics, including forecast likelihood, forecast frequency, forecast error, forecast pessimism, and forecast precision. We find that the likelihood of providing management earnings forecasts and frequency of forecasts increases during economic recession. We also find that economic recession is positively associated with forecast error, but negatively associated with forecast precision. Our findings suggest macro‐economic factors as an important determinant of management earnings forecasts properties.     

Earnings Management Surrounding New Debt Issues

We examine whether firms manage earnings before issuing bonds to achieve a lower cost of borrowing. We find significant income‐increasing earnings management prior to bond offerings. We also find that firms that manage earnings upward issue debt at a lower cost, after controlling for various bond issuer and issue characteristics. Our results are consistent with studies that report earnings management around equity issuance. The results indicate that, like equity holders, bondholders fail to see through the inflated earnings numbers in pricing new debt.     

The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.     

IPO公司预测盈利的价值相关性

会计信息是有效资本市场资源配置的重要依据。目前,价值相关性的研究主要关注会计盈余,而很少关注预测盈利。本文采用价格模型验证了我国IPO公司预测盈利的价值相关性,研究结论表明,我国IPO公司的预测盈利具有价值相关性,并且价值相关性因预测盈利的准确性、预测盈利的披露方式、IPO公司的规模以及股权流动性程度而不同。