Valuation and Accounting for Inflation and Foreign Exchange

Inflation and foreign exchange raise new issues with respect to accounting representations of equity value. For example, inflation creates an earnings illusion as an artifact of the mismatching of expenses based on allocations of historical costs with current revenues in determining earnings. This mismatching distorts mappings of aggregate earnings and book values into equity value such that value‐relevant information is lost. In this article we consider the consequences of inflation and foreign exchange accounting policies, including those contained in accounting standards, on the value relevance of bottom‐line accounting numbers. Policies are identified that achieve efficient accounting in the sense that aggregate (comprehensive) earnings and book values are sufficient for an accounting representation of equity value. The linear relations that emerge provide predictions on capitalization coefficients that help explain results of empirical inquiries. As well, our analysis provides a theoretical foundation for policies contained in accounting standards that contributes to the resolution of controversies such as that concerning foreign exchange accounting.     

Boussard's 'Effectiveness of Inflation Accounting Adjustments': A Comment

Boussard's (1984) notion that Current Cost/Constant Dollar Accounting does not provide 'meaningful rates of return' when inflationary conditions are compared with non-inflationary conditions is based on a misleading example.     

Terminal Value,Accounting Numbers,and Inflation

In a 2008 article published in this journal, Michael Bradley and Gregg Jarrell argue that the well‐known Gordon‐Shapiro (henceforth “GS”) model for calculating terminal values does not properly account for the effects of inflation. Bradley and Jarrell suggest modifying the growth factor in the standard GS model by adding an additional term to the nominal growth rate that reflects the positive effect of inflation on the value of existing assets. In this article, the authors support the original Gordon‐Shapiro method for calculating terminal values by showing what they believe to be an oversight of the Bradley‐Jarrell critique. According to the authors, the disagreement stems from the use of fundamentally different assumptions about the effect of inflation on the capital investment required to sustain a business. Although Bradley‐Jarrell agree with the authors that intrinsic value is the discounted value of future free cash flows, their assumptions about capital investment effectively lead them to conclusions similar to those practitioners who attempt to value companies on the basis of discounted future accounting earnings. Despite much common practice, the GS model was meant to be applied to free cash flows, not accounting earnings. And for companies with substantial capital investment, the differences between accounting earnings that involve accruals and free cash flows can be very large.     

The Impact of the Definition of Inflation on the Effectiveness of Inflation Accounting Adjustments

In tests of inflation accounting methods, inflation is generally seen as a simple phenomenon: the prices of all elements change at the same rate. The example presented here deals with a different case: inflation is characterized by changes in the structure of prices. In particular, prices of articles bought and articles sold do not vary at the same rates.
In this context, it is observed that three types of adjustments are not effective, i.e. they do not have the potential to report real or nominal rates of return. This result should be considered as a criticism of the coherence of inflation accounting methods.     

论通货膨胀条件下的会计模式

本文通过对通货膨胀条件下国际上通行的会计计量手段的分析,揭示了其理论基础和实务操作的基本思路,可以在会计实践中利用类似的方法和思路更准确的的反映资产价值、经营成果和投资报酬水平。     

A Statistical Model of International Accounting Harmonization

This article shows how the difference between the observed frequencies of accounting policy choice and the outcome of a random policy choice, where each available method has an equal chance of being selected, may be fully explained with a statistical model. The process of harmonization is described in a way that identifies departures from equiprobable accounting policy choice as either: (a) the systematic effects of harmonization, or (b) the effects of systematic divergence from international harmony where the frequency of adoption of differing accounting methods varies across countries, or (c) the effects of company-specific accounting policy choices. The understanding of harmony that underlies previous attempts to measure harmonization is such that, with respect to a particular financial statement item, a situation of maximum harmony is reached when all companies in all countries use the same accounting method. From the standpoint of modelling the harmonization process. however, a different concept of harmony may be more useful. In this article, therefore, we posit a state of distributional harnzony in which, other things being equal, the expected distribution of accounting policy choices is the same in each country. In this theoretical state. the odds of selecting a given accounting method from those available for a particular financial statement item are identical for each country. A major advantage of this benchmark is that it provides a basis for distinguishing between two possibly conflicting components of the international harmonization process: between-country harmonization and within-country standardization. A hierarchy of nested statistical models is then used to describe accounting policy choices made by companies with an international shareholding and registered in Europe, where the European Union has been involved in a program of accounting harmonization. The accounting policies analysed in depth in this article comprise the treatment of goodwill and accounting for deferred taxation. The results are compared with the comparability index method used previously in harmonization research studies.     

稳定公众通胀预期的优选策略:通货膨胀目标制——基于制度特征的分析与借鉴

目前,我国通货膨胀预期压力日益加大,中央银行的货币政策调控面临巨大的挑战,作为西方国家成功实践的通货膨胀目标制,在实现低而稳定的通货膨胀预期方面取得了明显的成效.本文分析了通货膨胀目标制在稳定通胀预期方面的制度特征,结合我国实施通胀目标制所面临的货币政策困境,提出了增强中央银行的独立性与可信度、以通货膨胀目标制作为单一名义锚、建立合理的通货膨胀目标区间、采用核心消费价格指数、增强信息披露机制、完善监测指标体系等政策建议.     

Inflation Accounting Disclosures and Stock Price Adjustments: Some Canadian Results

This article tests for an association between security returns and anticipated and unanticipated inflation. Inflation accounting disclosures are used to group securities on the basis of their sensitivity to inflation. Nominal security returns and residual returns are independently regressed on the levels of anticipated and unanticipated inflation using a dummy variable model. Results support previous U.S. findings that investors do not seem to use these accounting disclosures in the selection of securities. The evidence indicates, however, that for firms “less affected” by inflation, there exists an association between residual returns and anticipated inflation.     

中国的通货膨胀:一个新开放宏观模型及其检验

本文基于新开放宏观经济学(NOEM)框架分析了中国的通货膨胀问题,探讨了导致通货膨胀的原因以及各原因之间的相互关系,并利用贝叶斯向量自回归模型(BVAR)进行了计量检验。发现新开放宏观模型对中国的通货膨胀有较好的解释力,货币供应量无论是在长期还是短期都是诱发通货膨胀的主要原因,而外部冲击向中国的传导路径是受阻碍的。     

Expected Inflation and Interest Rates in a Multi-asset Model: A Note

This paper analyzes the effect of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, in a theoretical model with money and two different bond types. The inclusion of three assets instead of the usual two causes the effect of expected inflation on the interest rates to deviate from unity. Depending on the sizes of the wealth and interest rate effects on the various asset demands, the effect of expected inflation could even be negative. Several special cases are also considered, and the implications for the interpretation of empirical results are discussed.     

A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations

We study the evolution of U.S. inflation by means of a new noncausal autoregressive model with time‐varying parameters that outperforms the corresponding causal and constant‐parameter noncausal models in terms of fit and forecast accuracy. Our model also beats the unobserved component stochastic volatility (UCSV) model, one of the best‐performing univariate inflation forecasting models, in terms of both point and density forecasts. We also show how the new Keynesian Phillips curve can be estimated based on our noncausal model. Both expected and lagged inflation turn out important, but the former dominates in determining the current inflation.