Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models

This paper tests the validity of present value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size properties of this test, which is shown to outperform existing ones, and to compute appropriate critical values for finite samples. It is found that stock prices and dividends are both I(1) nonstationary series, but they are fractionally cointegrated. This implies that, although there exists a long-run relationship, which is consistent with PV models, the equilibrium errors exhibit slow mean reversion. As the error correction term possesses long memory, deviations from equilibrium are highly persistent.     

Extreme value theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns – S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 – representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student's t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions.     

Inferring fundamental value and crash nonlinearity from bubble calibration

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it is not possible to distinguish between an exponentially growing fundamental price and an exponentially growing bubble price. In this paper, we present a series of new models based on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model, which is a flexible tool to detect bubbles and predict changes of regime in financial markets. Our new models identify the fundamental value of an asset price and a crash nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also estimate the fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity, meaning that identifying the presence of a bubble is enabled by these models. In addition, the crash nonlinearity obtained in the new models presents a new approach to possibly identify the dynamics of a crash after a bubble. We test the models using data from three historical bubbles ending in crashes from different markets. They are the Hong Kong Hang Seng index 1997 crash, the S&P 500 index 1987 crash (Black Monday) and the Shanghai Composite index 2009 crash. All results suggest that the new models perform very well in describing bubbles, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is tested under both the Gaussian residual assumption and non-Gaussian residual assumption. Under the Gaussian residual assumption, nested hypotheses with the Wilks' statistics are used and the p-values suggest that models with more parameters are necessary. Under the non-Gaussian residual assumption, we use a bootstrap method to obtain type I and II errors of the hypotheses. All tests confirm that the generalized JLS models provide useful improvements over the standard JLS model.     

Do measurement-related fair value disclosures affect information asymmetry?

Using a sample of European real estate firms over the 2007–2010 period, this study provides some evidence that measurement-related fair value disclosures reduce information asymmetry. We find a negative association between the extent of fair value disclosures and the bid-ask spread, but no association with two additional measures of information asymmetry (zero returns and price impact). Contrary to our expectation, we fail to find evidence that firms using model estimates exclusively benefit the most from such additional disclosure. Analysing measurement errors (the absolute difference between the selling price of an asset and its fair value prior to sale), we find that firms that use model estimates exclusively and provide more measurement-related disclosures have lower errors and more accurate fair value estimates. In other words, if our lack of results is due to investors not using this additional disclosure this is to their detriment.     

Energy price uncertainty and the value premium

This paper examines the impact of energy price uncertainty on a range of value anomalies. We demonstrate that the value premium is substantially stronger in periods of heightened energy price uncertainty. Energy price uncertainty exerts an asymmetric effect on the value anomalies, whereby downside energy price uncertainty accentuates the return differences between value and growth stocks compared to upside energy uncertainty. These findings are consistent with the argument that value firms possess a larger amount of inflexible assets than growth firms. Therefore, they struggle more to adjust in periods of elevated energy price uncertainty. We also demonstrate that energy price uncertainty has predictive power on the value premium one-month ahead. Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares predictive model, energy price uncertainty can help mean-variance investors to obtain a positive annual utility gain across the value anomalies for up to 16.71%.     

A cross-section test of the present value model

We estimate for a sample of U.S. companies an econometric model of each companies' dividend process. We use this to forecast future dividends, and thereby calculate a theoretical present value for each company. We compare this to the market price and test whether one can earn excess returns by purchasing shares which are undervalued, compared to this theoretical price. We show that portfolios of underpriced shares substantially outperform the full sample.     

In pursuit of legitimacy: A history behind fair value accounting

An examination of the history of attempts by regulators, practitioners and scholars from the mid nineteenth century to 2005 to establish an appropriate accounting measurement basis for financial reporting here leads to an evaluation of the likelihood of fair value accounting (FVA) practices becoming fully institutionalised. Using concepts drawn from theories of legitimation, it is shown here that historic cost accounting (HCA) only enjoyed an episodic legitimacy in the 1940s–70s and that prior and after this period mixed measurement incorporating market values is routinised. Although principles of FVA have been legitimised to an extent, it is argued here that this has resulted in the practice of mixed measurement bases being taken for granted.     

Optimal investment and production decisions and the value of the firm

We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER.     

保险公司负债公允价值的评估

保险公司的资产与负债按照财务报告或风险管理的要求要用公允价值来表示其价值。保险公司负债主要由各种类型的保险合同组成。尽管金融产品的交易非常活跃,市场价格可以相对容易地获得,但像保险合同这样缺乏交易市场,并且风险是非系统化的金融产品的公允价值的计算却十分困难。通过分层次的方法可以有效地评估金融工具的公允价值,其中评估保险公司负债的公允价值最常用的方法是现值法。现值法中包含了直接法与间接法两种本质上等价的方法。本文对这两种方法分别作了分析,并提出了在评估保险公司负债的公允价值时需要考虑的一些现实问题。     

Deprival value and fair value: a reinterpretation and a reconciliation

Measurement is an important current issue for financial accounting standard-setters. Current values are increasingly replacing historical cost measures, but an important unresolved issue is the precise form that current value should take. In this paper two alternative measurement bases that have appeared in accounting standards. Deprivai Value (sometimes called Value to the Business) and Fair Value, are explained and compared. They are then reconciled by making the following three adjustments to their conventional definitions.

(1) In the case of Deprival Value, situations in which net realisable value exceeds replacement cost imply that there is a profitable redevelopment or redeployment opportunity, so that net realisable value is regarded as the appropriate measure of Deprivai Value.

(2) In the case of Fair Value, transactions costs (including installation and removal costs) are added to acquisition values and deducted from disposal values.

(3) In the case of Fair Value, it is assumed that net realisable value represents the ‘highest and best use’, except when it is exceeded by both replacement cost and value in use. In the latter case, ‘highest and best use’ (and therefore Fair Value) is inferred by assuming profit-maximising behaviour by the owner.

It is suggested that the resulting synthesis represents a method of current valuation which is consistent with the objective of measuring the asset in terms of the economic opportunities that are available to its current owner in the condition and location in which it is currently to be found.     

Corporate risk management and firm value: evidence from the UK market

The paper evaluates the effect of corporate risk management activities on firm value, using a sample of large UK non-financial firms. Following recent changes in financial reporting standards, we are able to collect detailed information on risk management activities from audited financial reports. This enables us to gain a better understanding of risk management practices and to investigate value implications of different types of hedging. Overall 86.88% of the firms in the sample use derivatives to manage at least one type of price risk. The hedging premium is statistically and economically significant for foreign currency derivative users, while we provide weak evidence that interest rate hedging increases firm value. The extent of hedging and the hedging horizon have an impact on the hedging premium, whereas operational risk management activities do not significantly influence the market value of the firm.     

Discussion of “Feedback loops, fair value accounting and correlated investments”

My paper discusses Bloomfield, Nelson, and Smith’s (BNS) model and experimental study of the price dynamics that arise when a firm’s accounting reports are predictable from its stock returns. This phenomenon occurs when the firm takes a position in an asset that generates unrealized gains and losses (UGL’s) that are correlated with the firm’s own returns. My discussion of BNS focuses on three features that are often used to evaluate research—namely, potential for falsification, internal validity, and external validity. I view and evaluate the BNS paper in light of each of these features. I also briefly comment on how well the paper addresses issues related to fair value accounting.     

On the intertemporal value relevance of conventional financial accounting in Australia

This paper examines whether the relevance of conventional (earnings focused) accounting information for valuation has declined in Australia over a recent period of 28 years. Motivation is provided by the anecdotal concerns of financial analysts, accounting regulators, and a cluster of US centric academic research papers that conclude that the relevance of financial accounting (and earnings in particular) has declined over time. After controlling for nonlinearities and stock price inefficiencies, we find that the value relevance of core accounting earnings has not declined. A possible exception is found for small stocks. We also observe that net book values are relatively less important in Australia when compared to the USA. Our results are informative for investors who require feedback on valuation issues and the International Accounting Standards Board regulators in any further moves towards a balance sheet focus.     

Valuing the Option to Purchase an Asset at a Proportional Discount

I analyze the value of a nonstandard call option that allows the holder to purchase an underlying asset at a discount proportional to the asset's market price. Several applications for this type of option exist, including its use in employee compensation contracts. I derive the value of this option for a dividend-paying asset and for an option whose exercise price reflects a time-varying discount factor. The derived value incorporates the optimal time at which the option should be exercised. One application of this option relates to a residential real estate program in China.     

Corporate governance and firm value during a financial crisis

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of management ownership and other corporate governance variables on Hong Kong firms’ stock performance following the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98). Our results show that Hong Kong firms with a more concentrated management (executive board) ownership displayed better capital market performance during the 13-month period of the Crisis. We also find that firms with more equity ownership by non-executive directors, and in which the positions of CEO and board chairperson were occupied by the same individual experienced a smaller stock price decline. Our findings are consistent with the notion that there is a greater alignment of insiders with outside owners, rather than the expropriation by insiders who have the opportunity to divert value, for firms with higher levels of management ownership during an unexpected capital market crisis.     

Debt Relief: Implications of Secondary Market Discounts and Debt Overhangs

An efficient rescheduling of the debt must take into accountthe market value of the debt. I argue here that the appropriateapproach is not to write down the debt to its value on the secondarymarket, but to scale the flows of payments on the debt. Thekey to an efficient rescheduling is to offer debt relief reflectingthe market discount, where the relief is contingent upon thecountry's adjustment effort (rather than setting repayment terms"once and for all" as in the Brady plan). I propose, as an example,that stabilization or adjustment programs under the aegis ofthe International Monetary Fund or the World Bank could includeprovisions allowing debt servicing or repurchase for a set durationat the secondary market rate. This would both reflect and provideincentives to increase a country's ability to repay.     

Glamour among value: P/E ratios and value investor attention

The trailing-four-quarter price–earnings (P/E) ratio is the most popular fundamental value proxy. This article is the first to examine the P/E ratio as the preeminent measure of value investor attention. Trailing-four-quarter P/E ratios predict significantly greater cross-sectional variation in stock returns than lagged P/E ratios or current price-to-book (P/B) ratios. P/E strategy returns are robust to variables that proxy for fundamental risk, variables mechanically related to P/E ratios, relative trading volume, and liquidity. The role of attention is evident in return patterns across long and short portfolios, day of the week, and time since formation. Stocks with low P/E ratios exhibit an increase in total trading volume driven by small trades, an improvement in liquidity, and lower idiosyncratic volatility. These patterns are consistent with the typical trading activity of individual investors, who have the strongest attention constraints.     

股票供给曲线凸现向后弯曲与公司价值分析

股票市场的价格高低及变动是对股票内在价值高低及变动的综合反映和表现,其价格的形成直接取决于市场的供求关系,而影响和调节股票供求量的并不是单位股票绝对价格水平的高低及变动,而是股票作为投资品单位内在价值的市场价格水平的高低及变动,同时也隐显了公司价值潜在的变动。因而,对股票内在价值的投资实质上是对公司价值的认可。由于股票收入效应和替代效应的存在又使股票供给曲线向后弯曲提升了股票的内在价值,进而也提升了公司的价值。这一表象正是引起股价波动背后的主要理性因素,从而为投资决策提供了理性依据。     

Managing extreme risks in tranquil and volatile markets using conditional extreme value theory

Financial risk management typically deals with low-probability events in the tails of asset price distributions. To capture the behavior of these tails, one should therefore rely on models that explicitly focus on the tails. Extreme value theory (EVT)-based models do exactly that, and in this paper, we apply both unconditional and conditional EVT models to the management of extreme market risks in stock markets. We find conditional EVT models to give particularly accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures, and a comparison with traditional (Generalized ARCH (GARCH)) approaches to calculate VaR demonstrates EVT as being the superior approach both for standard and more extreme VaR quantiles.     

保险负债的风险价值边际:评估方法及应用

国际会计准则委员会(IASB)正在实施一个关于保险合同的会计项目,其目的在于使保险公司的资产负债表以公允价值来计量。保险负债的公允价值以市场脱手价格为计量基础,可由最优估计价值和风险市场价值边际两部分构成。本文以公允价值的计量理论为基础,提出资本成本法这种风险价值边际的核算方法,并以财产险保单为例探讨该方法的应用。