Economic growth and carbon emissions: evidence from CIVETS countries

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether a long-run relationship exists between CO₂ emissions and selected variables: real gross domestic product per capita, inward stock of foreign direct investments, gross fixed capital formation, industry, value added and energy use per capita for Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa countries in the period of 1989–2016. We used panel unit root testing, followed by panel cointegration tests and panel causality. The results clearly prove the existence of a bidirectional long-run causal relationship between all the variables except between CO₂ emissions and GDP and CO₂ emissions and GFCF. Major finding of the short-run causality analysis is that CO₂ emission in the short run does not result in changes of other variables. On the other hand, all variables except foreign direct investments (FDI) cause the changes in the CO₂ emissions, and there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and FDI, between GFCF and FDI, and between GFCF and IVA. Finally, positive unidirectional causal relationship also exists, running from GDP to IVA, GDP to ENUSE, IVA to FDI and ENUSE to FDI.     

How Does Globalization Affect Income Inequality? A Panel Data Analysis

One of the major issues on the state of income inequality is the effect of globalization through foreign direct investment (FDI). It is well known that FDI inflows create employment opportunities for unskilled labor intensive countries. Hence, during recessionary (expansionary) periods, FDI outflows should cause an increase in a developing (developed) country’s unemployment rate, worsening income inequality. This study differs from the previous literature by employing the key variables FDI, trade volume, and GINI coefficient for a panel of three groups of countries (developed, developing, and miracle countries). We estimated panel cointegration coefficients via FM-OLS. Our results show that the effects of trade liberalization and FDI on income distribution differ for different country groups.     

Causal interactions between CO2 emissions,FDI, and economic growth: Evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equation models

In this article, we investigate the causality links between CO₂ emissions, foreign direct investment, and economic growth using dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models for a global panel of 54 countries over the period 1990–2011. We also implement these empirical models for 3 regional sub-panels: Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Our results provide evidence of bidirectional causality between FDI inflows and economic growth for all the panels and between FDI and CO₂ for all the panels, except Europe and North Asia. They also indicate the existence of unidirectional causality running from CO₂ emissions to economic growth, with the exception of the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Sahara panel, for which bidirectional causality between these variables cannot be rejected. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help build sound economic policies to sustain economic development.     

OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE: TRADE OPENNESS AND FDI FLOWS—ARE THE EMERGING ECONOMIES CONVERGING?

This study uses the club convergence methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) for emerging economies spanning the period 1960–2013 to explore whether such convergence exists and whether the increase of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has been a global or club phenomenon. We find the absence of a homogeneous convergence club. The results for FDI outflows also reach similar conclusions, suggesting the formation of convergence clubs by stage of development. These results suggest that policies that promote convergence in trade openness and FDI flows would permit countries to benefit from mutual interactions and by greater consistency and efficiency in trade regimes, thus permitting these countries to benefit from openness leading to a race to the top rather than bottom. (JEL F41, C33)     

外商直接投资对中国对外贸易影响的实证分析

本文以中国和其它24个国家或地区的最近3年的外贸和外资的实际数据为基础,用统计计量学方法对外商直接投资(FDI)和国际贸易关系进行实证研究,定量论证了FDI的贸易促进作用,在此基础上,还对中国与各个国家或地区之间贸易规模差异进行了阐述.     

Economic Integration between the European Union and the Transition Economies of Central European Initiative Countries

In this article we examine the main factors influencing trade and FDI flows between the transition countries of the Central European Initiative (CEI) and the EU member states. We distinguish three groups of CEI countries, according to the degree of trade and FDI integration with the EU: the 'fast mover' countries, the 'next tier' countries and the 'slow movers'. By estimating a number of trade and FDI equations we were able to locate the significance of alternative variables which affect the flows of trade between the CEI countries and the EU. According to our results, the low volume of trade and FDI between the 'next tier' and 'slow movers' of the CEI region, on one hand, and the EU, on the other, is a reflection of the fact that these particular countries have not yet achieved adequate institutional and economic reform while, at the same time, privatisation has not progressed as much.     

对外直接投资的贸易效应研究--基于中国经验的实证分析

对外直接投资与出口贸易之间的关系一直是相关理论和实证研究的争论主题。运用引力模型,对中国FD I的贸易效应进行实证分析表明:中国对东道国的直接投资促进中国对东道国的出口,但对从东道国的进口却具有替代效应。因此,大力促进中国对外直接投资,是促进中国的对外出口、绕开东道国贸易壁垒的重要途径。     

Taxi,Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper analyses volatility, persistence, predictability, correlation, comovement (or contagion risk) and sudden stop (reversibility) of capital flows (foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio equity investment, long-term and short-term debt flows) using time series econometric techniques for 24 emerging economies over 1970–2014. This is informative on the pattern and relationship between capital inflows, with implications for accommodating macroeconomic policies in countries receiving inflows. The paper also addresses the predictions of conventional theory, that differences are associated with the maturity of the capital (long-term vs. short-term), with the information-based trade-off model of Goldstein and Razin [(2006). An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. Journal of International Economics, 70(1), 271–295], that differences are associated with the structure of the capital (equity vs. debt). In line with the latter, equity flows (FDI and portfolio) are less volatile and persistent, more predictable and less susceptible to sudden stops than debt flows. Contrary to conventional theory, short-term flows are not more volatile, but there is evidence that correlations and risks of contagion are strong within all capital flow components.     

Aid,Terrorism, and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Insight Conditioned on Corruption Control

ABSTRACT

This paper checks the effect of foreign aid on terrorism–foreign direct investment (FDI) nexus, while considering the extent of domestic corruption control (CC). The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 78 developing countries. The following findings were established: the negative effect of terrorism on FDI is apparent only in countries with higher levels of CC; foreign aid dampens the negative effect of terrorism on FDI only in countries with high level of CC. Also, the result is mixed when foreign aid is subdivided into its bilateral and multilateral components. While our findings are in accordance with the stance that bilateral aid is effective in reducing the adverse effect of terrorism on FDI, we find that multilateral aid also decreases the adverse effect of other forms of terrorism that can neither be classified as domestic or transnational. Policy implications are discussed in the paper.     

Do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation? Evidence from developing economies

The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly in relation to major oil-consuming developing economies. This study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries. Our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization, trade openness and CO₂ emissions. Similarly, results from VECMs show that economic growth, oil consumption and industrialization have a short-run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with CO₂ emissions. Long-run (error-correction term) bidirectional causalities are found among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, oil consumption, financial development and trade openness. Our results confirm that economic growth and oil consumption have a significant impact on the CO₂ emissions in developing economies. Hence, the findings of this study have important policy implications for mitigating CO₂ emissions and offering sustainable economic development.     

Predicting FDI inflows: Exploring a nonlinear relationship between peace years,oil wealth,and the rule of law

Despite previous studies investigating the impacts of various factors such as peace years, natural resources, and the rule of law on foreign direct investment (FDI), empirical findings remain inconclusive. Therefore, this study investigates the interplay between these factors in shaping host country conditions that facilitate FDI inflows. Using generalized additive models, we examine the simultaneous effects of peace years, oil wealth, and the rule of law on FDI inflows in a sample of non-OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. Our results reveal that established peace is a critical factor in attracting FDI inflows for both oil-exporting and non-oil-exporting countries. However, the effects of the rule of law vary depending on oil wealth. Oil-exporting countries receive more FDI inflows when they have a weak rather than a strong rule of law, while non-oil-exporting countries tend to receive more foreign investments when they have a moderately strong rule of law. We argue that countries with oil wealth combined with a moderately weak rule of law provide an environment that is conducive to multinational corporations (MNCs) in extractive industries seeking monopoly rents. Conversely, countries without oil wealth should create stable yet efficient environments that protect property rights and promote labor market flexibility to appeal to non-resource-seeking MNCs.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE FDI‐INEQUALITY NEXUS

This article empirically investigates whether the link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income inequality varies with financial development. Using a smooth transition regression model to a panel of developing and advanced countries over the period of 1976–2005, the results indicate that financial development indeed defines the relationship between FDI and inequality. FDI raises income inequality and the effect becomes stronger in magnitude with financial sophistication. The results also indicate a large variation in the FDI effect across countries and over time, contingent on financial development. (JEL C23, F40, O15)     

Long-term Nexus Between Openness,Income, and Environmental Quality

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between income, trade, and environmental quality as measured by carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, disaggregated by source (oil, gas, and coal). Using time series data spanning from 1980 to 2006, 21 countries, including G7, BRIC, and middle and low income economies, we consistently find the existence of a long-run relationship between income, trade, and carbon emissions (from oil in particular). This is important because the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently determined that CO₂ emissions indeed pose a threat to human health and welfare.     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT POLICIES ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND SOURCING OF CHINESE FIRMS

How do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies impact the decisions of firms in technology adoption (process vs. product innovations) and sourcing (internal vs. external and foreign vs. domestic)? We use a sample of Chinese firms to address this question. China's trade and FDI policies lead to different forms of internationalization: ordinary exports, processing exports, majority FDI, and minority FDI. We find that both exporting and FDI stimulate process innovation; ordinary exports, processing exports, and FDI have strong, weak, and no effects on stimulating product innovation, respectively. Exporting firms source technologies both internally through R&D and externally from foreign and domestic sources. FDI firms have a lower tendency of internal technology development and domestic technology sourcing, but a much higher tendency of foreign technology sourcing than exporting firms. (JEL F13, F23, O32)     

DOES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

Although there is considerable evidence on the link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in developing countries, causal patterns of the two variables has not been investigated yet with a reliable procedure. This article provides an empirical assessment of the issue by using data for 11 economies in East Asia and Latin America. Although FDI is expected to boost host economic growth, it is shown that the extent to which FDI is growth-enhancing appears to depend on country-specific characteristics. Particularly, FDI tends to be more likely to promote economic growth when host countries adopt liberalized trade regime, improve education and thereby human capital conditions, encourage export-oriented FDI, and maintain macroeconomic stability.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.     

Does Real Estate Defy Gravity? An Analysis of Foreign Real Estate Investment Flows

This paper investigates the scale and determinants of foreign investment flows between national real estate markets. Using data for over 100 countries over 2007–2012, the results indicate that, consistent with previous studies for trade, foreign direct and portfolio investment variables such as size and distance have significant effects on foreign real estate investment flows. Large positive size effects are consistent with a combination of scale economies and information externalities producing investment concentration across markets and in conjunction with direct and indirect transaction costs specific to real estate markets. Physical distance coefficients are relatively small compared to the studies of FDI.     

Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence

The previous literature has largely overlooked the possible channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) might influence business cycle synchronization. In this study we analyze the linkages that exist among FDI, trade and industrial dissimilarity in relation to business cycle co-movements using a panel data set taken from 77 pairs of developed countries. The error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) estimates from a simultaneous equations model with panel data are shown to be superior to the estimates obtained from single equation models or simultaneous equations models with cross-sectional data. Our results indicate that FDI serves as a channel of international business cycle transmission that is equally important as the channels of trade and monetary policy. On the contrary, industrial dissimilarity is identified as having an indirect impact on the business cycle correlation through trade and FDI. Furthermore, our findings suggest that in our sample FDI is of the horizontal type and tends to substitute for trade.     

3D printing,international trade,and FDI

We analyze the relationship between 3D printing technology, the volume of trade, and the structure of foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a standard trade model with firm-specific heterogeneity into which we include 3D printing as a technology choice for foreign direct investment. The model generates three predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that face high transport costs. Second, technological progress in 3D printing leads to FDI dependent on traditional techniques gradually being replaced by FDI based on 3D printing. Third, with wider adoption, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence focusing on the sectors with the highest rates of adoption supports the first hypothesis, while evidence from a case study supports the second and third. Our results suggest that the traditional strategy of poor countries for export-led industrialization is threatened by the widespread adoption of 3D printing that replaces international trade.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS?

Industrial competitiveness (IC), reflecting a country's ability to produce and export manufactures competitively, is closely associated with economic growth. How does globalization affect IC? While the topic is of great importance, empirical studies on the issue in the literature have been limited. This article attempts to close the gap by estimating the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade with cross‐country data in 1985 and 1998. Taking advantage of a recently constructed IC index, we estimate several regression models of effects of FDI and trade on industrial performance. Results suggest that FDI and trade have a positive impact on IC, and increasing integration with the world economy through FDI and trade contributes to better industrial performance. (JEL F02, F10, F21, L60)