坚定“三个自信” 成就中国梦想

2012年11月29日,新一届中央领导集体在国家博物馆参观《复兴之路》展览时,中共中央总书记习近平深情地阐述了"中国梦"。他说:"实现中华民族伟大复兴,就是中华民族近代以来最伟大的梦想。"这是"中国梦"通过党和国家领导人之口,第一次进入公众视野。随后,习总书记在多个场合对中国梦进行了阐释。一时间"中国梦"引起了中外媒体、专家广泛热议。梦想连接道路,道路决定命运。没有正确的道路,就无法汇聚各方的力量,再美好的梦想也无法实现。要成就中国梦,首要任务就是要坚定对中国特色社会主义道路、理论体系和制度的"三个自信"。     

江苏省入境旅游客流波动性问题研究

笔者以1996年～2008年江苏入境旅游者接待量月度分布情况为基础数据,分析了13年来江苏省入境旅游客流的波动性特征。通过使用SPSS16.0的季节分解功能,对江苏入境旅游旺季的时间形成了准确的判断;通过进行调整和平滑处理后得到的趋势图,对江苏入境旅游的发展状况和未来变化进行了分析和预测。在此基础上对全省13个省辖市进行入境旅游客流季节性强度指数的测算和对比,得出江苏入境旅游客流的波动性受到包括季节性因素在内的多种因子影响的结论。     

对我国CPI与PPI关系研究——基于季节调整后的数据分析

选取1997年1月～2011年12月间我国月度CPI和PPI数据进行了定基处理和季节调整,然后在其基础上建立了VAR模型。该模型分析的结果表明CPI和PPI之间存在协整关系。格兰杰因果检验分析结果表明,在5%的显著性水平下,CPI与PPI互为格兰杰因果。方差分解的结果表明,CPI和PPI自己对自己的变化的贡献率比较大。     

中国消费者对国家经济发展的信心调查与分析

借鉴国际消费者信心指数理论,首次对中国消费者信心状况进行调查,根据调查结果编制中国消费者信心指数,并对中国不同特征消费者关于经济发展、就业形势、物价水平、购买住房、收入增加、家庭物质生活等方面的信心状况进行了全面分析。     

Public and private measures of consumer confidence in Turkey： Substitutes or complements

Consumer confidence indices are among the major economic variables as private consumption stands as the major component of aggregate demand in many economies. This is also relevant for an emerging economy like Turkey. ＂What determines consumer confidence？＂ is one of the most popular questions in the literature of consumer surveys. There are two consumer confidence indices regularly released in Turkey. One is released by a private corporation, CNBC-e, in the first day of every month since January 2002. The other one is released by two public institutions, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey （CBRT） and Turkish Statistical Institute （TURKSTAT）, jointly since 2004. Although the goal is the same for both indices, there are differences between them in terms of the methodology and sampling size. This study has two aims： One is to detect the degree of correlation between these indices which will allow for commenting on the reliability of the indices; The other one is to test the relation between Gross Domestic Product （GDP）, unemployment rate variables and the consumer confidence in Turkey by using both indices.     

Cyclical common factors in cointegrated systems

When working with vectors of time series which fluctuate regularly we may possibly want to consider the presence of common factors characterized by cyclical or seasonal behavior as well as trend. For example, Deaton89 provides a hint of a theoretical model where cointegration at the annual frequency may exist between consumption and income in addition to the usual secular cointegration. It is well known that a non-cyclical system cointegrated at frequency zero has a common trend (CT) representation Stock-Watson: 88. In this paper we show that a time series vector that is cointegrated at one or several frequencies simultaneously (e.g. seasonal data) has a common factors (CF) representation which belongs to a class of common factor models that encompasses many cointegrating situations found in the literature. We study these issues and extend the method proposed by Gonzalo-Granger: 95 to the estimation and testing of common factors which may combine trend as well as cyclical or seasonal characteristics. Two illustrative applications are also provided. JEL Classification: C10, C32, C50 Javier Fernández-Macho: Financial support from research group grant 9/UPV00038.321-13503/2001 of UPV/EHU is gratefully acknowledged by both authors and from research project BEC2003-02028 of Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología by the first author. We are also indebted to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

论推进经济增长方式的根本性转变

了解经济增长方式演变的基本规律,可以对我国增长方式的转变起到重要的借鉴和推动作用。现阶段我国建立在粗放型增长方式基础之上的经济发展,在资源、环境、经济结构和国际关系等方面给我国的社会经济生活带来了许多严重的问题和困难。切实转变经济增长方式,要从各个方面、各个环节进行不懈的艰苦努力。     

季节平稳过程间的虚假回归

本文推导了当数据生成过程是独立的季节平稳过程情形下,OLS参数估计及检验统计量的极限分布。发现序列中的自相关性会导致虚假回归现象的发生。     

菏泽市城市居民信心指数调查与思考

调查结果显示,菏泽市城市居民的政治信心、经济信心、社会信心指数的整体走势符合目前全市经济社会发展实际,但也存在一些不可忽视的问题。下一步要进一步加强和改进政府的各项工作,大力提高社会公职人员的素质,不断增强市民的参政意识和参政能力,进一步增强城市居民的政治信心;要围绕“突破菏泽”的中心任务,努力促进菏泽经济跨越式发展,不断提高市民的生活水平,全面提高城市居民的经济信心;要充分认识反腐败斗争的严重性,正确对待收入差距过大问题,下大力做好就业再就业和社会保障工作,用心解决好市民关注的热点难点问题,不断提高城市居民的社会信心。     

我国物价波动特征的实证分析

本文旨在分析我国物价水平变动的规律,预测未来价格变化的走势。利用时间序列的移动平均比率法、频谱分析、ARCH类模型等,本文实证分析了我国消费物价指数（CPI）波动的季节性、周期性、集聚性等特征。结论显示：我国物价波动呈季节性特征,具有3年左右的短周期和9年左右的长周期,聚集特征明显,物价上涨具有一定的长期记忆性。有关结论对预测我国未来CPI的走势有一定现实指导意义。     

Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

信心经济与全面"小康"

现代经济本质上是信心经济,消费信心、投资信心、政治信心和可持续发展信心会对当前乃至未来经济发展产生不可忽略的影响。在我国,要实现全面“小康”的目标,必须促进从经济信心到信心经济的制度嬗变,进而形成社会范围的就业氛围。本文研究了构成信心经济的基本内容和影响信心经济的社会因素,旨在强化信心经济的理念和完善信心经济的制度规则。     

通胀预期对未来住房价格的影响——基于消费者信心指数的分析

以消费者信心指数作为通货膨胀预期指标,以中国1999—2010年住房市场月度数据为样本,实证检验通货膨胀预期对未来住房价格的影响。实证检验结果表明,通货膨胀预期会导致住房价格上涨,即生产者和消费者对通货膨胀预期将推动住房价格的不断上涨,因此,稳定通货膨胀预期对于稳定住房价格具有十分重要的作用。     

浅析危机管理中的沟通策略

通过对企业在危机管理过程中的沟通理念、公众细分、沟通目标、信息产生、沟通工具及相关技巧等方面的阐述,详 细分析了管理危机中的沟通策略。     

后危机时代中国经济出路浅析

随着经济全球化的发展,世界经济更加融为一体。2008年,以美国华尔街为中心爆发了一场全球性的金融危机,给全球经济带来巨大震动,至今余波未平。在全球化的大背景下,中国作为世界第二大经济体,自然在全球性危机中不能独善其身,中国的经济必然受到影响。在经济危机后危机时代,中国经济发展风险与机遇并存。增强信心,加大国内投资,拉动内需是中国克服金融危机的根本保证。