PERSISTENCE IN CONVERGENCE AND CLUB FORMATION

In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non‐stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics.     

农地使用权流转与相关的法律问题探讨

在稳定家庭承包制,实行土地使用权长期化的基础上,推进土地使用权的流转,实现农业的适度规模经营,是我国农业发展的基本方向,法律允许土地使用权依法转让,这为土地使用权市场的构建提供了政策依据,只有进一步完善相关的政策法规,才能促进农地流转工作的顺利进行。     

Monetary policy,corporate profit and house prices

By using portfolio theory, we explain the highly observed correlation between the seemingly unrelated corporate profit and house prices in the United States. We test the predictions of the underlying model using a vector autoregression representation and find the data to be supportive of the theory. Monetary impulses explain high correlation as both corporate profit and house prices exhibit similar dynamics in response to a monetary impulse. Robustness checks are presented by using the federal funds rate instead of the monetary base as a measure of the stance of monetary policy and by using other model variations. In all cases, the results are robust.     

沼气储粮技术研究初探

利用沼气储粮既提高了气源的利用率,开辟了一条沼气利用的新途径,又获得了良好的社会效益和生态环境效益。本文着重探讨了沼气储粮技术。     

Remittances and the real effective exchange rate

We examine the long-run relationship between remittances and the real exchange rate for less-developed countries. In a key departure from the literature, we employ a panel cointegration approach using an innovative method for the measurement of the multilateral real effective exchange rate and we focus on high-remittance economies. We find a small inelastic, but significant, long-run relationship which confirms a Dutch disease type effect. The short-run relationship is explored using a panel vector error correction model which confirms that short-run causality is unidirectional running from remittances to the exchange rate. Potential asymmetries in this relationship are identified using quantile regression analysis.     

Adding value through the mechanization of post-harvest cassava processing,and its impact on household poverty in north-eastern Zambia

This article investigates the impact of adopting a mechanized cassava processing system on household poverty levels in Zambia. An Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measure was used to compare poverty levels among households using a mechanized cassava processing system against those households using a nonmechanized process. Based on the FGT poverty measure’s specifications, a significantly lower poverty status of 49% was found among households using the mechanized process when compared to the 58% found among households using the nonmechanized process. The significant factors contributing to these differences in poverty levels include whether households are using a mechanized process or not, the number of years’ schooling among household members, the number of years’ farming experience, household income and membership of associations. The study concludes that the mechanization of cassava processing, particularly if done on the right scale, can transform primary production activities, in turn leading to higher incomes and reduced poverty levels in rural villages. Thus, policies should be introduced aimed at encouraging the promotion of mechanized post-harvest cassava processing technologies among rural households, so as to enhance crop productivity and household income levels, as well as reduce poverty among rural households.     

Estimating the effect of monopsony power on elasticity estimates

Love and Shumway (1994) developed a nonparametric deterministic test for monopsony market power using a normalized quadratic restricted cost function with one input for which the firm has potential market power. This research examines monopsony power using Lau’s Hessian identity relationships based on the empirical properties of duality theory. Lau’s Hessian identity shows the Hessian matrices are equal under pure competition using an unrestricted profit function, restricted profit function and production function approach. We examine how market power changes in the monopsony case using Lau’s Hessian identity relationships. Results show that there is a difference between the unrestricted and restricted profit function results under monopsony power. The important implication is that if an input or output is potentially in a market subject to market power, that input or output should be modelled as a fixed input or output to correctly recover the underlying technology.     

The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated using a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series over the period 1980:01 to 2006:04. The results based on the impulse response functions indicate that, in general, house price inflation responds negatively to monetary policy shock, but the responses are heterogeneous across the middle-, luxury- and affordable-segments of the housing market. The luxury-, large-middle- and medium-middle-segments are found to respond much more than the small-middle- and the affordable-segments of the housing market. More importantly, we find no evidence of the home price puzzle, observed previously by other studies that analyzed house prices using small-scale models. We put this down to the benefit gained from using a large information set.     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic linkage

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania using two tests. In the first test, we examine the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening using a financial deepening model. In the second test, we examine whether the financial deepening, which results from interest rate reforms, Granger‐causes economic growth – using a trivariate model. The empirical findings of our results reveal that there is a significant positive relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania. However, the results fail to find any support for finance‐led growth.     

Exploring potential R&D collaboration partners through patent analysis based on bibliographic coupling and latent semantic analysis

The aim of the present research is to provide a new systematic methodology to explore potential Research and Development (R&D) collaboration partners using patent information. The potential R&D collaboration partners are visualised as a patent assignee level map based on technological similarity between patents by using the network analysis. The proposed framework utilises two analytic methods to measure technological similarity. The first method, bibliographic coupling analysis, measures technological similarity based on the citation relationship using patent bibliographic information. Second, latent semantic analysis is utilised based on semantic similarity using patent textual information. The fuel cell membrane electrode assembly technology field is selected and applied to illustrate the proposed methodology. The proposed approach allows firms, universities, research institutes and governments to identify potential R&D collaborators as a systematic decision-making support tool.     

On the cross-sectional relation between exchange rates and future fundamentals

Using a cross-sectional perspective, we investigate the implications of the present-value model of exchange rates for a sample of 64 countries during 1971–2015, excluding periods of pegged exchange rates. Our paper uses all bilateral exchange rate pairs instead of choosing a reference currency and extends the list of fundamentals that have been examined in the previous literature by using the variables present in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model. We document that exchange rates are strongly connected to future fundamentals using forecast horizons from one month to 10 years. Our findings highlight that unlike for time-series and panel data, the evidence against the “exchange rate disconnect puzzle” is more robust using a cross-sectional perspective. Given the relevance of fundamental factors in determining exchange rates dynamics we examine whether they are useful in constructing profitable investment strategies. Except for inflation, we find that a significant relation between exchange rates and a fundamental does not lead necessarily to a profitable investment strategy. Finally, we document that using the cross-rates of exchange rates leads to a significant improvement in the profitability of the carry trade strategy.     

Tacit collusion in housing markets: the case of Santiago,Chile

In this article, using a detailed micro-database from Santiago, Chile, the potential existence of tacit collusion in housing markets is investigated. In order to perform the test, Santiago’s housing market is split into four different submarkets using hedonic price analysis and household’s socioeconomics characteristics. Then, using a GMM panel data model, regressions are run for each submarket, correlating industry’s markups with the aggregate level of activity. The main finding is that low and middle income submarkets present higher average markups and a pro-cyclical behaviour. This finding is consistent with a market where participants do not face capacity constraints and behave strategically to sustain tacit collusion during increasing demand periods.     

The Atkinson Inequality Measure and its Sampling Properties: Bayesian and Classical Approaches

This paper examines several Bayesian methods of obtaining posterior probability density functions of the Atkinson inequality measure and its associated social welfare function, in the context of grouped income distribution data. The methods are compared with asymptotic standard errors. The role of the number of income classes is investigated using a simulated distribution. If only a small number of groups is available in published data, there is a clear gain from generating the posterior probability density function when using an explicit income distribution assumption. Even with a small number of groups, the Bayesian approach gives results that are close to the sample values obtained using the corresponding individual observations.     

Empirical identification of perceived congestion

This paper investigates the empirical identification of perceived congestion and mitigating behavior using observational data. Congestion effects are identified using a procedure based upon a nonlinear function of the choice attributes combined with an equilibrium condition on the sorting behavior of participants. Results suggest that congestion effects can be identified, under certain assumptions, using only revealed preference data, and that ignoring these effects underestimates the strength of preferences for other attributes. The model is applied to data on rock climbers, and the resulting estimates used to simulate the reopening of a currently closed section of a popular NY rock-climbing area and the re-sorting of climbers that would result.     

Measurement of redistributive effect of tax rates from a longitudinal perspective: an application of the fixed taxable income approach

The primary objective of this article is to explore how the redistributive effects of tax rate change when using the fixed taxable income approach – where tax rates for each year in a period are applied to taxable income for a base year to calculate rate effects – instead of using an existing procedure to compute the rate effects. Standard rate effects are found to differ considerably from those calculated using the fixed taxable income approach in terms of both level and longitudinal trend.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

ESTIMATING INCUMBENCY EFFECTS IN U.S. STATE LEGISLATURES: A QUASI‐EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

This paper estimates the incumbency effects in elections to the House of Representatives of 45 states in the United States using a quasi‐experimental research method, regression discontinuity design (RDD). This design isolates the causal effect of incumbency from other contemporaneous factors, such as candidate quality, by comparing incumbents and non‐incumbents in close contests. I find that incumbents in state legislative elections have a significant advantage, and this advantage serves as a strong barrier to re‐entry of challengers who had previously been defeated. However, the incumbency advantage estimated using the RDD is much smaller than are the estimates using existing methods, implying a significant selection bias in the latter.     

Estimating value-at-risk under a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework with jump

This article proposes a new methodology for measuring Value-at-Risk (hereafter VaR) using a model that incorporates both volatility and jumps. Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) model has been used for the valuation of interest rate derivatives. This study extends the use of HJM model to the estimation VaR. This article specifically uses a two-factor HJM jump-diffusion model for the computation. The study models the Eurodollar futures prices using its derivatives. In addition, this article uses a new volatility specification of Ze-To (2002) to construct the HJM dynamics. The result indicates that the VaR model using HJM jump-diffusion framework performs well in capturing the nonnormality and in providing accurate VaR forecasts in the in-sample and out-sample tests.     

The effect of external partner heterogeneity on open innovation: the moderating role of the technological regime

There is widespread agreement that open innovation (OI) is strongly influenced by external partner heterogeneity. While previous studies have examined partner heterogeneity using quantitative analysis, the implications of a weighted assignment using an external partner heterogeneity index have received less attention. The purpose of this study is to develop a modified partner heterogeneity model. Specifically, using a questionnaire survey of Chinese firms, we develop a new method to measure partner organisational heterogeneity (POH). Then, the moderating factors of an industry's technological environment, termed the technological regime, are introduced. The empirical analysis shows that the technological regime is positively correlated with POH and OI performance. Hence, an advanced technological regime improves POH and OI performance by incorporating external resources and increasing innovation potential.     

企业环境责任度量——基于绿色投入产出的视角

将企业环境责任拓展为环境治理责任和环境改善责任,构建企业环境责任度量框架。将"资源使用"部门和"污染排放"部门合为"环境降耗"部门,并构建将"资源使用"与"污染排放"视为一个整体的改进的企业绿色投入产出模型。采用统计年鉴中具有代表性的环境污染统计指标测算区域环境综合增长系数,进而将企业环境改善责任系数化。最后,结合江苏一家小型造纸企业2010年的实际数据以及2005—2010年江苏省的环境污染指标数据检验了上述度量方法。