Disappointment aversion and the equity premium puzzle: new international evidence

Drawing upon the seminal study of Ang, Bekaert, and Liu [2005. “Why Stock May Disappoint?” Journal of Financial Economics 76 (3): 471–508], we incorporate disappointment aversion (DA, that is, aversion to outcomes that are worse than prior expectations) within a simple theoretical portfolio-choice model. Based on the results of this model, we then empirically address the portfolio allocation problem of an investor who chooses between a risky and a risk-free asset using international data from 19 countries. Our findings strongly support the view that DA leads investors to reduce their exposure to the stock market (i.e. DA significantly depresses the portfolio weights on equities in all cases considered). Overall, our study shows that in addition to risk aversion, DA plays an important role in explaining the equity premium puzzle around the world.     

Modeling Asset Premiums and the Riskfree Rate in General Equilibrium CCAPM

We elaborate on the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) to reveal a set of underlying forces that determine asset returns. We use generalized preferences, allow for labor-leisure choice, a broad asset portfolio, and holding international claims. A calibration of the model with US data learns that excess stock and bond returns can be replicated. At the same time, however, the riskfree interest rate generally appears to be mispriced, consistent with Weil (1989). Additional results show that in general two optimal values of the intertemporal substitution parameter correspond with a specified coefficient of risk aversion. Tests that assess the dynamic properties of the model yield mixed results, but are most favorable when home bias is allowed.     

Time-Varying Variance Risk Premium and the Predictability of Chinese Stock Market Return

A number of studies have shown that the variance risk premium (VRP), defined as the difference between risk-neutral and physical expected variances, has strong predictive power for the excess stock market return, and this predictability peaks at 3- to 6-month prediction horizons. However, little research presents empirical evidences for Chinese stock market due to the absence of option market. Under general equilibrium asset pricing framework, this article estimates time-varying VRP using the Chinese stock market data. We find that the estimated VRP predicts the excess Chinese stock market return, and this forecasting power is stronger at 4- and 5-month horizons, which is consistent with the findings of existing literature.     

A股市场股权风险溢价的历史及启示

本文计算了1992～2000年、2001～2005年以及1992～2005年三个时间窗口下A股市场的股权风险溢价率；基于历史数据，就投资者所要求的股权风险溢价、通货膨胀与股权风险溢价的关系等问题进行了初步分析；相关分析也隐含了A股市场发展的政策建议。     

Non-addictive Habit Formation and the Equity Premium Puzzle

I analyse a model in a simple representative-agent economy with one risky and one riskless asset, populated by habit forming consumer-investors. These consumer-investors exhibit non-addictive habit formation in the sense that the current consumption rate of the consumer-investors can fall below their past habit-forming consumption rate. I endogenise the real riskless rate of return in this representative-agent economy and find that the equity premium puzzle is resolved for plausible values of the coefficient of relative risk aversion, the discount rate, and the intensity of non-addictive habit formation. These values have been validated in previous empirical or survey-based studies. Non-addictive habit-formation studied here complements and extends current research on habit-forming preferences. Given a constant investment opportunity set, the real riskless rate in the economy increases with relative risk aversion of the consumer and decreases as the habit-formation intensity increases. Extensions with time-varying investment opportunity sets could explain the low risk-free rate and the relatively large variability of the market return over the variability of the risk-free rate through time.     

A Generalisation of the Mean-Variance Analysis

In this paper we consider a decision maker whose utility function has a kink at the reference point with different functions below and above this reference point. We also suppose that the decision maker generally distorts the objective probabilities. First we show that the expected utility function of this decision maker can be approximated by a function of mean and partial moments of distribution. This 'mean-partial moments' utility generalises not only mean-variance utility of Tobin and Markowitz, but also mean-semivariance utility of Markowitz. Then, in the spirit of Arrow and Pratt, we derive an expression for a risk premium when risk is small. Our analysis shows that a decision maker in this framework exhibits three types of aversions: aversion to loss, aversion to uncertainty in gains, and aversion to uncertainty in losses. Finally we present a solution to the optimal capital allocation problem and derive an expression for a portfolio performance measure which generalises the Sharpe and Sortino ratios. We demonstrate that in this framework the decision maker's skewness preferences have first-order impact on risk measurement even when the risk is small.     

Returns after personal tax on UK equity and gilts, 1919–1998

This paper investigates whether personal tax could help explain the size of the historic equity premium in the UK measured before personal tax. If there has been a higher tax burden on equity, some of the premium could be viewed as compensation for tax. It is estimated here that personal tax reduces the arithmetic mean nominal return on equity from 13.3% to 11.1% pa during the period 1919–1998, and the mean return on gilts from 7.1% to 5.6% pa. Thus, personal tax accounts for a slightly higher proportion of the before-tax return on gilts than on equity, implying that the equity premium is not a compensation for a higher tax burden on equity.     

Recovering the market risk premium from higher-order moment risks

We propose a consistent approach for the estimation of the market risk premium. As a first step, we define the broadest possible set of ex ante estimators from the viewpoint of a power utility optimiser holding the market portfolio. We then employ an evaluation framework to optimise the parametrisation of the methodology. We show that this theoretical framework can still produce reasonable market risk premium estimates, even when the representative agent is not a power utility optimiser. Our results show that the inclusion of higher-order moment risk premia improves the accuracy of the method.     

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals

This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators.     

Credibilistic risk aversion

In the probabilistic risk aversion approach, risks are presumed as random variables with known probability distributions. However, in some practical cases, for example, due to the absence of historical data, the inherent uncertain characteristic of risks or different subject judgements from the decision-makers, risks may be hard or not appropriate to be estimated with probability distributions. Therefore, the traditional probabilistic risk aversion theory is ineffective. Thus, in order to deal with these cases, we suggest measuring these kinds of risks as fuzzy variables, and accordingly to present an alternative risk aversion approach by employing credibility theory. In the present paper, first, the definition of credibilistic risk premium proposed by Georgescu and Kinnunen [Fuzzy Inf. Eng., 2013, 5, 399–416] is revised by taking the initial wealth into consideration, and then a general method to compute the credibilistic risk premium is provided. Secondly, regarding the risks represented with the commonly used LR fuzzy intervals, a simple calculation formula of the local credibilistic risk premium is put forward. Finally, in a global sense, several equivalent propositions for comparative risk aversion under the credibility measurement are provided. Illustrated examples are presented to show the applicability of the theoretical findings.     

Exploring risk premium factors for country equity returns

In this paper, we study a comprehensive set of risk premia of country equity returns for 45 countries over the sample period 2002 - 2018 in both a single and a multiple factor setting. Using a new three-pass estimation method for factor risk premia by Giglio and Xiu (2021), we find that several factors, including default risk, are also priced in country equity excess returns, controlled by the Fama–French 5-factor and Carhart models. Moreover, we apply a novel approach to investigate the multi-factor impact on country equity returns. We find that the multi-factor information, constructed from the first principal component of the statistically significant single factors, provides a consistent and stronger prediction of anomalies in country equity returns.     

Habit Formation in an Overlapping Generations Model with Borrowing Constraints

We introduce habit‐formation in the three‐period OLG borrowing‐constrained framework of Constantinides et al. (2002) by allowing the utility of the middle‐aged (old) to depend on consumption when young (middle‐aged). This specification enables us to separate the effect of the two habit parameters (middle‐aged and old) since each representative age‐group can face different levels of habit persistence. The two‐habit setup underlines some important issues with regards to savings and security returns which do not always conform to the standard findings in the literature. In addition, the model produces equity premium consistent with US data for relatively small levels of risk aversion.     

Volatility Risk Premium,Risk Aversion,and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns

We test if innovations in investor risk aversion are a priced factor in the stock market. Using 25 portfolios sorted on book‐to‐market and size as test assets, our new factor together with the market factor explains 64% of the variation in average returns compared to 60% for the Fama‐French model. The new factor is generally significant with an estimated risk premium close to its time series mean also when industry portfolios and portfolios sorted on previous returns are augmented to the test assets.     

Modelling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: A New Perspective

In this paper we seek to develop a new approach to the time series analysis of foreign exchange risk premia. We do so by assuming a geometric Brownian process for the spot exchange rate and expressing the no-arbitrage spot-forward price relationship under the historical probability measure. We are thereby able to obtain a stochastic differential equation system linking the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the risk premium (modelled directly as a mean-reverting diffusion process) which we estimate using Kalman filtering techniques. We are able to use observations at a range of frequencies since the framework we set up does not involve overlapping observations. The model is then applied to the French Franc/USD, DEM/USD, GBP/USD, and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rates from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1998. For all currencies we find evidence that the forward risk premium is stationary and exhibits substantial positive time variation.     

On the consequences of state dependent preferences for the pricing of financial assets

This paper introduces state dependent utility into the standard Mehra and Prescott [J. Monet. Econ. 15 (1985) 145] economy by allowing the representative agent's coefficient of relative risk aversion to vary with the underlying economy's growth rate. Existence of equilibrium is proved and its asymptotic properties analyzed. This generalization leads to level dependent marginal rates of substitution, a property that sharply distinguishes this model from the standard construct. For very low coefficients of relative risk aversion, the equilibrium risk free and risky security returns are demonstrated to have volatilities and an associated equity premium that substantially exceed what is found in the data. This provides a contrasting perspective on the classic “equity premium puzzle.”     

Extracting Information from Options Markets: Smiles, State–Price Densities and Risk Aversion

In this paper, recent techniques of estimating implied information from derivatives markets are presented and applied empirically to the French derivatives market. We determine nonparametric implied volatility functions, state–price densities and historical densities from a high–frequency CAC 40 stock index option dataset. Moreover, we construct an estimator of the risk aversion function implied by the joint observation of the cross–section of option prices and time–series of underlying asset value. We report a decreasing implied volatility curve with the moneyness of the option. The estimated relative risk aversion functions are positive and globally consistent with the decreasing relative risk aversion assumption.     

Risk aversion in the expected and the nonexpected utility functions

If asset returns are i.i.d. over time, the preference parameter in the time additive von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility is the risk aversion coefficient in the Epstein-Zin nonexpected utility. By distinguishing between risk aversion and intertemporal substitution, this article provides an explanation about the observed discrepancy in the empirical estimates of the risk aversion coefficient.