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1.
Efthymios G. Pavlidis David A. Peel Costas Siriopoulos 《European Journal of Finance》2013,19(6):572-588
The recent financial crisis exposed the inability of traditional theoretical and empirical models to parsimoniously capture the rich dynamics of the economic environment. This has stimulated the interest of both academics and practitioners in the development and application of more sophisticated models. By allowing for the presence of nonlinearities, complex dynamics, multiple equilibria, structural breaks and spurious trends, these latter models resemble more closely the properties of economic and financial time series. In this article, we illustrate the flexibility of a family of econometric models, namely the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR), to encompass several of the above characteristics. We then re-assess the power of the ESTAR unit root test developed by Kapetanios, Shin and Snell ((2003)) in the presence of nuisance parameters typically encountered in the literature and compare its performance with that of the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Enders and Granger ((1998)) tests. Our results show the lack of dominance of any particular test and that the power is not independent to priors about the nuisance parameters. Finally, we examine several asset price deviations from fundamentals and one hyper-inflation series and find contradictory results between the nonlinear fitted models and unit root tests. The findings highlight that new testing procedures with higher power are desirable in order to shed light on the behavior of financial and economic series. 相似文献
2.
It is widely believed that fluctuations in transaction volume, as reflected in the number of transactions and to a lesser extent their size, are the main cause of clustered volatility. Under this view bursts of rapid or slow price diffusion reflect bursts of frequent or less frequent trading, which cause both clustered volatility and heavy tails in price returns. We investigate this hypothesis using tick by tick data from the New York and London Stock Exchanges and show that only a small fraction of volatility fluctuations are explained in this manner. Clustered volatility is still very strong even if price changes are recorded on intervals in which the total transaction volume or number of transactions is held constant. In addition the distribution of price returns conditioned on volume or transaction frequency being held constant is similar to that in real time, making it clear that neither of these are the principal cause of heavy tails in price returns. We analyse recent results of Ane and Geman (2000: J. Finance, 55, 2259–2284) and Gabaix et al. (2003: Nature, 423, 267–270), and discuss the reasons why their conclusions differ from ours. Based on a cross-sectional analysis we show that the long-memory of volatility is dominated by factors other than transaction frequency or total trading volume. 相似文献
3.
Evidence to date on the market value of investor relations (IR) strategies is limited. We test the market relevance of IR activity directly employing a proprietary database measuring IR quality across all firms listed on NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ. Although, in theory, ‘repackaging’ and communicating existing information should have no market impact, we find that firms with higher quality IR strategies are rewarded with significantly higher valuation multiples. In addition, increase in IR quality is associated with increases in analyst following and liquidity. Overall, our findings are generally stronger for small firms which are more likely to be ‘neglected’. Our evidence is consistent with effective IR successfully raising firm visibility leading to enhanced recognition and reduced information asymmetry in line with Merton (1987) and thus ‘fairer’ firm valuation as argued by IR professionals. 相似文献
4.
Event studies typically use the methodology developed by Fama et al. [1969. The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review 10, no. 1: 1–21] to segregate a stock's return into expected and unexpected components. Moreover, conventional practice assumes that abnormal returns evolve in terms of a normal distribution. There is, however, an increasing tendency for event studies to employ non-parametric testing procedures due to the mounting empirical evidence which shows that stock returns are incompatible with the normal distribution. This paper focuses on the widely used non-parametric ranking procedure developed by Corrado [1989. A nonparametric test for abnormal security price performance in event studies. Journal of Financial Economics 23, no. 2: 385–95] for assessing the significance of abnormal security returns. In particular, we develop a consistent estimator for the variance of the sum of ranks of the abnormal returns, and show how this leads to a more efficient test statistic (as well as to less cumbersome computational procedures) than the test originally proposed by Corrado (1989). We also use the theorem of Berry [1941. The accuracy of the Gaussian approximation to the sum of independent variates. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 49, no. 1: 122–36] and Esseen [1945. Fourier analysis of distribution functions: A mathematical study of the Laplace–Gaussian law. Acta Mathematica 77, no. 1: 1–125] to demonstrate how the distribution of the modified Corrado test statistic developed here asymptotically converges towards the normal distribution. This shows that describing the distributional properties of the sum of the ranks in terms of the normal distribution is highly problematic for small sample sizes and small event windows. In these circumstances, we show that a second-order Edgeworth expansion provides a good approximation to the actual probability distribution of the modified Corrado test statistic. The application of the modified Corrado test developed here is illustrated using data for the purchase and sale by UK directors of shares in their own companies. 相似文献
5.
《Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies》2013,6(2):279-297
While there has been considerable research on the consequences of financial crises, there has been little empirical research on the possible effects of the role of domestic political institutions that influence a government's ability to implement crisis management policies. This paper investigates the impact of domestic institutions, characterized by a U-shaped veto player framework, on the output costs of banking crises. The analysis extends MacIntyre's qualitative study (2001) of the relationship between veto players and policy risks in the Asian financial crises. For a large sample of emerging market economies, we find support for McIntyre's hypotheses that both too few and too many veto players are associated with greater costs of banking crises. 相似文献
6.
Laura Ballotta 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(7):803-817
The aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of alternative frameworks for the fair valuation of life insurance contracts with a predominant financial component, in terms of impact on the market consistent price of the contracts, the embedded options, and the capital requirements for the insurer. In particular, we model the dynamics of the log-returns of the reference fund using the so-called Merton (1976) process, which is given by the sum of an arithmetic Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process, and the Variance Gamma (VG) process introduced by Madan and Seneta (1990), and further refined by Madan and Milne (1991) and Madan et al. (1998). We conclude that, although the choice of the market model does not affect significantly the market consistent price of the overall benefit due at maturity, the consequences of a model misspecification on the capital requirements are noticeable. 相似文献
7.
Vivianne H. M. Visschers Wim F. Passchier Nanne K. de Vries 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(3):371-383
Risk perception is often measured by a direct method, e.g., a questionnaire. This mainly reveals the deliberate evaluation of a risk (a so‐called secondary evaluative process), whereas risk perception can also be based on a first, spontaneous reaction (a primary evaluative process). An indirect test such as the Extrinsic Affective Simon Task (EAST, De Houwer, 2003) may be needed to reveal this first, spontaneous reaction. In this study, a questionnaire and an EAST measured the effects of varying risk communications (high risk, low risk or control article), about high‐voltage power lines. The results of the EAST showed that the respondents associated power lines stronger with unhealthy than with healthy. However, the questionnaire results did not seem to indicate that the respondents considered power lines as risky. The EAST did not reveal an effect of article variation on the associations of power lines with (un)healthy. Conversely, the questionnaire results showed that article variation influenced the secondary evaluative process. Further, our findings demonstrated that the direct and indirect measures were unrelated. An indirect test may complement a direct test to get an overall picture of how people evaluate risks. 相似文献
8.
The coalition government elected in 2010 in the UK pursued a programme of quango reform focused on reducing the number and expenditure of arm’s-length bodies, increasing transparency, improving accountability and maximizing efficiency and effectiveness. This paper revisits Flinders and Skelcher’s 2012 PMM paper ‘Shrinking the quango state: five challenges in reforming quangos’ to assess progress to date and consider future challenges. Drawing insights from the UK programme of quango reform, as well as similar developments in Ireland, the authors identify five new challenges for governments: regulating, managing, reconciling, co-ordinating and reflecting. 相似文献
9.
We consider optimal execution strategies for block market orders placed in a limit order book (LOB). We build on the resilience model proposed by Obizhaeva and Wang (2005) but allow for a general shape of the LOB defined via a given density function. Thus, we can allow for empirically observed LOB shapes and obtain a nonlinear price impact of market orders. We distinguish two possibilities for modelling the resilience of the LOB after a large market order: the exponential recovery of the number of limit orders, i.e. of the volume of the LOB, or the exponential recovery of the bid–ask spread. We consider both of these resilience modes and, in each case, derive explicit optimal execution strategies in discrete time. Applying our results to a block-shaped LOB, we obtain a new closed-form representation for the optimal strategy of a risk-neutral investor, which explicitly solves the recursive scheme given in Obizhaeva and Wang (2005). We also provide some evidence for the robustness of optimal strategies with respect to the choice of the shape function and the resilience-type. 相似文献
10.
This paper reports on a project which is designed to increase the participation of high school students in accounting work experience placements. The focus of the paper is on an Australian-based project which overcomes the identified barriers to offering high school accounting work experience placements with a resultant increase in the number and quality of placements offered. The research project responds to a decline in both the number and quality of students enrolling in accounting degree programmes in Australia. The paper draws on the work experience, social psychology, careers, and accounting education literatures to design a ‘connective’ model (Guile &; Griffiths, 2001) of accounting work experience for high school students. The project adopts an action research methodology which engages professional accounting practice, high school career advisors, and the university sector to deliver a structured work experience programme which addresses barriers to participation in accounting work experience and improves the quality of the work experience ‘experience’ for both employers and students. 相似文献
11.
Standard delta hedging fails to exactly replicate a European call option in the presence of transaction costs. We study a pricing and hedging model similar to the delta hedging strategy with an endogenous volatility parameter for the calculation of delta over time. The endogenous volatility depends on both the transaction costs and the option strike prices. The optimal hedging volatility is calculated using the criterion of minimizing the weighted upside and downside replication errors. The endogenous volatility model with equal weights on the up and down replication errors yields an option premium close to the Leland [J. Finance, 1985, 40, 1283–1301] heuristic approach. The model with weights being the probabilities of the option's moneyness provides option prices closest to the actual prices. Option prices from the model are identical to the Black–Scholes option prices when transaction costs are zero. Data on S&P 500 index cash options from January to June 2008 illustrate the model. 相似文献
12.
Kolodko and Schoenmakers (2006) and Bender and Schoenmakers (2006) introduced a policy iteration that allows the achievement of a tight lower approximations of the price for early exercise options via a nested Monte Carlo simulation in a Markovian setting. In this paper we enhance the algorithm by a scenario selection method. It is demonstrated by numerical examples that the scenario selection can significantly reduce the number of inner simulations actually performed, and thus can greatly speed up the method (by up to a factor of 15 in some examples). Moreover, it is shown that the modified algorithm retains the desirable properties of the original, such as the monotone improvement property, termination after a finite number of iteration steps, and numerical stability. 相似文献
13.
An interesting phenomenon, which we dub the ‘pseudo‐immediacy effect’, was detected in intertemporal choices. The majority of our participants preferred the smaller but sooner (SS) outcome to the larger but later (LL) outcome when a pseudo‐immediacy reward was framed, but a higher proportion of participants preferred the LL outcome to the SS outcome when the pseudo‐immediate format was removed. Such a shift violated the invariance principle which requires that the preference order between options does not depend on the manner in which they are described. With reference to the pseudo‐certainty effect reported by Kahneman and Tversky in 1984, our findings typically support the notion that risk and delay are psychologically equivalent and that the same psychological process underlies risk and intertemporal choice. 相似文献
14.
《Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies》2013,6(2):289-326
The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the volatility spillovers in Latin American emerging stock markets. A multivariate Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations of Engle (1982) with a Student-t distribution is employed. We examine whether considering for long memory and asymmetry in emerging stock markets behaviour may provide more insights into the volatility spillovers phenomenon. In this paper we select daily frequency stock indexes covering four emerging countries in Latin America for the period (January 1995–September 2009). Our results point out the importance of volatility spillovers in these countries. Moreover, long memory and asymmetry in emerging stock market dynamics seem to provide more insights into the transmission of volatility shocks. More interestingly, the analysis of the DCCEs behaviour over time via multivariate cointegration, vector error correction model and the Cholesky variance decomposition shows shifts behaviour around major Latin American financial crisis and recent subprime crisis. On the practical side, these results may be useful for international portfolio managers and Latin American stock market authorities. 相似文献
15.
We reconsider the problem of the optimal time to sell a stock studied by Shiryaev et al. (2008) (following in this issue of Quantitative Finance) using path integral methods. These methods allow us to confirm the results obtained by these authors and extend them to the entire parameter region. We also obtain the full distribution of the time tm at which the maximum of the price is reached for arbitrary values of the drift. 相似文献
16.
Boyce D. Watkins 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(5):411-422
Using monthly data for 25 emerging markets around the world, it is found that emerging markets with recently consistent stock returns tend to have future returns that continue in the same direction. The effects are long-lived for negative consistency, and imply that capital flows are much more sensitive to market downturns than market upturns. Additionally, the longer a market has had consistently negative (positive) stock returns, the more negative (positive) are future returns. These results serve as confirmation that the consistency effects of Grinblatt and Moskowitz [J. Finan. Econ., 2004, forthcoming] and Watkins [J. Behav. Finan., 2003, 4, 1–32] exist in emerging markets around the world. 相似文献
17.
Sally Aisbitt 《Accounting Education: An International Journal》2013,22(3):349-360
Abstract The emergence of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as the required convention for reporting to stock exchanges in the European Union (EU) and other important markets, together with the convergence programmes of major standard setters, has accelerated the reduction in differences in financial reporting between countries. The education of potential accountants would be expected to respond to these changes and, indeed, there is evidence that the teaching of accounting techniques now frequently draws on both IFRS and local GAAP. Perhaps a greater shift has been in the discipline of International Accounting (IA), which has moved from being an optional subject to being core to most programmes and an increasingly popular choice for more specialised degrees at both undergraduate and Master's levels. This article surveys the books that are available to support educators and learners in IA building on the analysis and classification of Laidler and Pallett (1998) Accounting Education: an international journal, 7(1), pp. 75–86. A range of IA textbooks is examined in detail, along with a more general review of reference works. The analysis finds that there has been a growth in the number, breadth and depth of texts serving the IA market. Authors have fallen upon a number of devices in their battle to keep their materials up to date in this dynamic environment. Some of Laidler and Pallett's (1998) criticisms of the writing and coverage of IA texts have been addressed, although not necessarily in the way that they envisaged. In spite of the growth of this section of publishers' catalogues, there remain a number of areas given scant coverage, notably enforcement and audit, and countries outside of the EU and US. The article concludes with recommendations for publishers, authors and educators to enhance the teaching of IA and the resources needed to support it. 相似文献
18.
Rafael Heinzelmann 《Accounting in Europe》2016,13(1):103-120
This paper studies professional education in management accounting and the ways in which management accounting professions establish jurisdictional claims about management accounting work in the UK and German-speaking countries, respectively. We adopt a comparative approach drawing on the framework of systems of professions and the distinction between public, legal and workplace jurisdiction [Abbott, A. (1988). The system of professions: An essay on the division of expert labor. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press]. Our findings highlight some notable differences between the UK and German-speaking countries with respect to professional management accounting education, the jurisdictional claims that the professions make as well as the establishment and history of professional institutes for management accounting. Based on this analysis, the paper identifies a dilemma or at least a challenge for policy-makers with respect to balancing the need for a context-dependent model of professional education with a need for comparability and convergence. 相似文献
19.
Recent research suggests that fractional Brownian motion can be used to model the long-range dependence structure of the stock market. Fractional Brownian motion is not a semi-martingale and arbitrage opportunities do exist, however. Hu and Øksendal [Infin. Dimens. Anal., Quant. Probab. Relat. Top., 2003, 6, 1–32] and Elliott and van der Hoek [Math. Finan., 2003, 13, 301–330] propose the use of the white noise calculus approach to circumvent this difficulty. Under such a setting, they argue that arbitrage does not exist in the fractional market. To unravel this discrepancy, we examine the definition of self-financing strategies used by these authors. By refining their definitions, a new notion of continuously rebalanced self-financing strategies, which is compatible with simple buy and hold strategies, is given. Under this definition, arbitrage opportunities do exist in fractional markets. 相似文献
20.
Mathieu Boudreault Hélène Cossette David Landriault Etienne Marceau 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(5):265-285
We consider an extension to the classical compound Poisson risk model for which the increments of the aggregate claim amount process are independent. In Albrecher and Teugels (2006), an arbitrary dependence structure among the interclaim time and the subsequent claim size expressed through a copula is considered and they derived asymptotic results for both the finite and infinite-time ruin probabilities. In this paper, we consider a particular dependence structure among the interclaim time and the subsequent claim size and we derive the defective renewal equation satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function. Based on the compound geometric tail representation of the Laplace transform of the time to ruin, we also obtain an explicit expression for this Laplace transform for a large class of claim size distributions. The ruin probability being a special case of the Laplace transform of the time to ruin, explicit expressions are therefore obtained for this particular ruin related quantity. Finally, we measure the impact of the various dependence structures in the risk model on the ruin probability via the comparison of their Lundberg coefficients. 相似文献